CORONAFALSEALARM?

FactsandFigures

KarinaReiss&SucharitBhakdi

ChelseaGreenPublishingWhiteRiverJunction,Vermont

London,UK

Copyright©2020byGoldeggVerlagGmbH,BerlinandVienna.OriginallypublishedinGermanybyGoldeggVerlagGmbH,Friedrichstraße191•D-10117Berlin,in2020asCoronaFehlalarm?

Englishtranslationcopyright©2020byGoldeggVerlagGmbH,BerlinandVienna.

Allrightsreserved.

Nopartofthisbookmaybetransmittedorreproducedinanyformbyanymeanswithoutpermissioninwritingfromthepublisher.

TranslatedbyMonikaWiedmannandDeirdreAnderson

Authorphotos:PeterPullkowski/SucharitBhakdi;DagmarBlankenburg/KarinaReissCoverdesign:AlexandraSchepelmann/Donaugrafik.atLayoutandtypesetting:GoldeggVerlagGmbH,Vienna

ThiseditionpublishedbyChelseaGreenPublishing,2020.

PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica.FirstprintingSeptember2020.10987654321      2021222324

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AcknowledgementsTheauthorsoweagreatdebtofgratitude toMonikaWiedmann for the initialtranslationfromtheGermanandtoDeirdreAndersonforcriticalcommentsandvaluable suggestions.Our heartfelt thanks to both for professional editing andproofreadingofthefinalmanuscript.

Contents

1.    PrefaceHoweverythingstartedCoronaviruses:thebasicsChina:thedreadthreatemerges

2.    Howdangerousisthenew“killer”virus?ComparedtoconventionalcoronavirusesRegardingthenumberofdeathsHowdoesthenewcoronaviruscomparewithinfluenzaviruses?ThesituationinItaly,Spain,EnglandandtheUSA

3.    Corona-situationinGermanyTheGermannarrativeThepandemicisdeclaredNationwidelockdownApril2020:noreasontoprolongthelockdownThelockdownisextendedMandatorymasksLast argument for extension of lockdown: the impending secondwave?Relaxingtherestrictionswiththeemergencybrakeapplied

4.    Toomuch?Toolittle?Whathappened?OverburdenedhospitalsShortageofventilators?Werethemeasuresappropriate?Whatdidthegovernmentdoright?Whatdidthegovernmentdowrong?Whatshouldourgovernmenthavedone?

5.    CollateraldamageEconomicconsequencesDisruptionofmedicalcareDrugsandsuicideHeartattackandstrokeOtherailmentsFurtherconsequencesfortheelderlyInnocentandvulnerable:ourchildrenConsequencesfortheworld’spoorest

6.    Didothercountriesfarebetter–Swedenasarolemodel?Aretherebenefitsoflockdownmeasures?Sowhichmeasureswouldhaveactuallybeencorrect?

7.    Isvaccinationtheuniversalremedy?OnthequestionofimmunityagainstCOVID-19Tovaccinateornottovaccinate,thatisthequestionPandemicornopandemic–theroleoftheWHO

8.    FailureofthepublicmediaWherewastruthfulinformationtobefound?Wherewastheopendiscussion?ThenumbersgameDefamationanddiscreditingCensorshipofopinionsTheGerman“goodcitizen”andthefailureofpoliticsWhydidourpoliticiansfail?

9.    Quovadis?

10.  Afarewell

11.  References

1Preface

The first months of the year 2020 were characterised worldwide by a singlenightmare: Corona. Dreadful images took wing from China, then from Italy,followedbyother countries.Projectionsonhowmany countless deathswouldoccur were coupled with pictures of panic buying and empty supermarketshelves.Themedia ineverydaylifewasdrivenbyCorona,morning,noonandnightforweeksonend.Draconianquarantinemeasureswereestablishedallovertheworld.Whenyousteppedoutside,you foundyourself ina surrealworld–not a soul to be seen, but instead empty streets, empty cities, empty beaches.Civil rightswere restrictedasneverbefore since theendof theSecondWorldWar. The collapse of social life and the economywere generally accepted asbeing inevitable. Was the country under threat of such a dreadful danger tojustifythesemeasures?Hadthebenefitsthatcouldpossiblybegainedbythesemeasuresbeenadequatelyweighedagainstthesubsequentcollateraldamagethatmight also be expected? Is the current plan to develop a global vaccinationprogrammerealisticandscientificallysound?

Our original book was written for the public in our country and thistranslated version is tilted toward the German narrative. However, globaldevelopments have advanced along similar lines, so that the basic argumentshold. We have replaced a number of local events in favour of pressing newissues regarding the question of immunity and the postulated need fordevelopmentofvaccinesagainstthevirus.

The intent of this book is to provide readers with facts and backgroundinformation, so that they will be able to arrive at their own conclusions.Statements in the book should be regarded as the authors’ opinions that wesubmit for your scrutiny. Criticism and dissent are welcome. In scientificdiscussions,postulationofanythesisshouldalsoinviteantitheses,sothatfinallythesynthesismayresolvepotentialdisagreementandenableustoadvanceinthe

interestofmankind.Wedonotexpectallreaderstoshareourpointsofview.Butwedohopetoigniteanopenandmuchneededdiscussion,tothebenefitofallcitizensofthisdeeplytroubledworld.

HoweverythingstartedInDecemberof2019,a largenumberof respiratory illnesseswererecorded inWuhan,acitywithabout10millioninhabitants.Thepatientswerefoundtobeinfectedwithanovelcoronavirus,whichwaslatergiventhenameSARS-CoV-2.TherespiratorydiseasecausedbySARS-CoV-2wasdesignatedCOVID-19.InChina,theoutbreakevolvedintoanepidemicinJanuary2020,rapidlyspreadingaroundtheglobe(1,2,3).

Coronaviruses:thebasicsCoronaviruses co-existwithhumansandanimalsworldwide, andcontinuouslyundergogeneticmutationsothatcountlessvariantsaregenerated(4,5).“Normal”coronavirusesareresponsiblefor10–20%ofrespiratoryinfectionsandgeneratesymptoms of the common cold. Many infected individuals remainasymptomatic(6).Othersexperiencemildsymptomssuchasunproductivecough,whilst some additionally develop fever and joint pains. Severe illness occursmainly in the elderly and can take a fatal course, particularly in patientswithpre-existing illnesses, especially of heart and lung. Thus, even “harmless”coronaviruses canbe associatedwith case fatality rates of 8%when theygainentrytonursinghomes(7).Still,duetotheirmarginalclinicalsignificance,costlymeasuresfordiagnosingcoronavirusinfectionsareseldomundertaken,searchesforantiviralagentshavenotbeenprioritised,andvaccinedevelopmenthasnotbeensubjecttoseriousdiscussion.

Onlytwomembersofthecoronavirusfamilyreachedworldheadlinesinthepast.

SARS virus (official name: SARS-CoV) entered the stage in 2003. Thisvariant caused severe respiratory illness with a high fatality rate ofapproximately 10%. Fortunately, the virus turned out not to be highlycontagious, and its spread could be contained by conventional isolationmeasures. Only 774 deaths were registered worldwide(8,9). Despite this

manageabledanger,fearofSARSledtoaworldwideeconomiclossof40billionUS dollars(8). Coronaviruses subsequently faded into the background. A newvariant, MERS-CoV, emerged in the Middle East in 2012 and caused life-threatening disease with an even higher fatality rate of more than 30%. Butcontagiousnessoftheviruswasalsolowandtheepidemicwasrapidlybroughtundercontrol(10).

China:thedreadthreatemergesWhen the news came fromChina that a new coronavirus familymember hadappearedonstage,themostpressingquestionwas:woulditbeharmlesslikeits“normal” relatives orwould it beSARS-like and highly dangerous?Orworsestill:highlydangerousandhighlycontagious?

FirstreportsanddisturbingscenesfromChinacausedtheworsttobefeared.The virus spread rapidly andwith apparent deadly efficacy. China resorted todrasticmeasures.Wuhan and fiveother citieswere encircledby the armyandcompletelyisolatedfromtheoutsideworld.

Attheendoftheepidemic,officialstatisticsreportedabout83,000infectedpeopleand fewer than5,000 fatalities(11), an infinitesimally smallnumber in acountrywith 1.4 billion inhabitants. Either the lockdown worked or the newvirus was not so dangerous after all. Whatever the case, China became theshiningexampleonhowwecouldovercomeSARS-CoV-2.

More disturbing news then came from northern Italy. Striking swiftly, thevirus left countless dead in its wake.Media coverage likened the situation to“war-likeconditions”(12).WhatwasnotreportedwasthatinotherpartsofItaly,and also in most other countries, the “fatality rate” of COVID-19 wasconsiderablylower(13,14).

Could it be that the intrinsic deadliness of one and the same virus varied,dependingonthecountryandregionitinvaded?Notverylikely,itseemed.

2Howdangerousisthenew“killer”

virus?

ComparedtoconventionalcoronavirusesGaugingthetruethreatthatthevirusposedwasinitiallyimpossible.Rightfromthe beginning, the media and politicians spread a distorted and misleadingpicture based on fundamental flaws in data acquisition and especially onmedically incorrect definitions laid down by the World Health Organization(WHO). Each positive laboratory test for the virus was to be reported as aCOVID-19 case, irrespective of clinical presentation(15). This definitionrepresentedanunforgiveablebreachofafirstruleininfectiology:thenecessitytodifferentiatebetween“infection” (invasionandmultiplicationofanagent inthehost)and“infectiousdisease”(infectionwithensuingillness).COVID-19isthe designation for severe illness that occurs only in about 10% of infectedindividuals(16), but because of incorrect designation, the number of “cases”surged and the virus vaulted to the top of the list of existential threats to theworld.

Another serious mistake was that every deceased person who had testedpositive for thevirus entered theofficial recordsas a coronavirusvictim.Thismethod of reporting violated all international medical guidelines(17). Theabsurdity of givingCOVID-19 as the cause of death in a patientwho dies ofcancerneedsnocomment.Correlationdoesnotimplycausation.Thiswascausalfallacythatwasdestinedtodrivetheworldintoacatastrophe.Truthsurroundingthevirusremainedenshroudedinatangleofrumours,mythsandbeliefs.

A French study, published on March 19, brought first light into thedarkness(6). Two cohorts of approximately 8,000 patients with respiratorydisease were grouped according to whether they were carrying everyday

coronavirusesorSARS-CoV-2.Deaths ineachgroupwereregisteredover twomonths.However,thenumberoffatalitiesdidnotsignificantlydifferinthetwogroups and the conclusion followed that the danger of “COVID-19” wasprobably overestimated. In a subsequent study, the same team compared themortality associated with diagnosis of respiratory viruses during the coldermonths of 2018–2019 and 2019–2020 (week 47-week 14) in southeasternFrance. Overall, the proportion of respiratory virus-associated deaths amonghospitalised patients was not significantly higher in 2019–2020 than the yearbefore(18).Thus,additionofSARS-CoV-2tothespectrumofviralpathogensdidnotaffectoverallmortalityinpatientswithrespiratorydisease.

RegardingthenumberofdeathsHow can the aforementioned be reconciled with the official reports of thehorrifying number of COVID-19 deaths? Two numbersmust be known if thedangerofavirusistobeassessed:thenumberofinfectionsandthenumberofdeaths.

Howmanywereinfectedbythenewvirus?

Attemptstoanswerthisquestionwerebesetbythreeproblems:

1.Howreliablewasthetestforvirusdetection?

The virus is present in the nasopharynx for approximately twoweeks, duringwhichtimeitcanbedetected.Howisthisdone?ViralRNAistranscribedintoDNAandquantifiedbytheso-calledpolymerasechainreaction(PCR).Thefirstassay for the new coronavirus was developed under guidance of ProfessorChristianDrosten,HeadoftheInstituteforVirologyattheCharitéBerlin.Thistest was used worldwide in the initial months of the outbreak(19). Tests fromotherlaboratoriesfollowed(20).

Diagnostic PCR tests must normally undergo stringent quality assessmentandbeapprovedbyregulatoryagenciesbeforeuse.Thisisimportantbecausenolaboratory test can ever give 100% correct results. The quality controlrequirementswere essentially shelved in the case of SARS-CoV-2 because ofdeclared international urgency. Consequently, nothing was really knownregardingtestreliability,specificityandsensitivity.Inessence,theseparameters

giveanindicationofhowmanyfalse-positiveorfalse-negativeresultsshouldbeexpected.The testprotocol from theDrosten laboratorywereusedworldwide,and test results played a key role in political decision-making. Yet, datainterpretationwasoftenlargelyamatterofbelief.WhatdidDrostenhimselfsayonTwitter(21)?

   Sure:TowardstheendoftheillnessthePCRissometimespositiveandsometimesnegative.Here,chanceplaysarole.Whenyoutestapatienttwiceasnegativeanddischargehimascured,itisindeedpossiblethatyoucanhavepositivetestresultsagainathome.Butthisisstillfarfrombeingare-infection.

Severalphysiciancolleagueshaveinformedusofsimilarhaphazardresultswithpatients who had been tested repeatedly during their hospitalisation. Is itparticularly surprising that goats and papayas tested positive for the virus inTanzania?ThecriticismbythePresidentofTanzaniaregardingtheunreliabilityofthetestkitswasofcourseimmediatelydismissedbytheWHO(22).

But today it is perfectly clear that the test result is error-prone, as is everyPCR(23,24).Howmuchso,andwhether thereare significantdifferencesamongthepresentlyavailabletests,cannotbedeterminedbecauseoflackofdata.

So let us assume that thePCR test is incrediblygood andproduces99.5%correct results.That sounds, andwould indeedbe, exceptional – itmeans thatonecanexpectonly0.5%false-positives.Nowtakethecruiseship“MeinSchiff3”.Afteracrewmemberhadtestedpositiveforthevirus,almost2,900peoplefrom73countrieswereforcedinto“shipquarantine”.Manyhadbeenonboardforninemonths.Complaints reached theoutsideworldabout the“prison-like”conditions,psychologicalproblemsaboundedandnerveswerefrayed(25).

Nine positive caseswere reported after testingwas completed.One personwhotestedpositivehadacough,theothereightwerewithoutsymptoms.Mightthey have belonged to the 0.5% false-positive cases, as perhaps the very firstcasehadbeen?Wherewerethetrue-positivesthatmusttheoreticallyhavebeenthere? Were they possibly tested as false-negatives or were all positive testsfalse?

In the context of false results,we should consider the following:when theepidemicsubsided(inGermany,inmid-April,)PCRtestingbecameadangeroussourceofmisinformationbecausenumbersofnewcaseswerederivedfromthe“backgroundnoise”of false-positive results.Whenall 7,500employeesof theCharité Berlin (one of Europe’s largest university hospitals) were tested fromApril7toApril21,0.33%werepositive(26).Trueorfalse?

Whenpositivetestratesdropbelowacertainlimit,itissenselesstocontinuemass screening for the virus in non-symptomatic individuals. And use ofnumbersacquiredunder thesecircumstancesasa reason for implementinganymeasuresshouldnotbetolerated.

2.Selectiveorrepresentative?Whowastested?

Thereisonlyonewaytoapproximatehowmanypeopleareinfectedduringanepidemicwithanagentthatcauseshighnumbersofunnoticedinfections:atsitesof an outbreak, the population must be tested as extensively as possible. Butscientists who called for this during the coronavirus epidemic(27,28) wereignored.

Instead, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), the German federal governmentagencyandresearchinstitutefordiseasecontrol,stipulatedatthebeginningthatonlyselectivetestingshouldbecarriedout–exactlytheoppositeofwhatshouldhavehappened.Andastheepidemicranitscourse,theRKIstepwisealteredthetestingstrategy–alwaysinthediametricallywrongdirection(29).

At first, only peoplewho had been in a high-risk area and/or had been incontactwithaninfectedpersonandalsopresentedwithflu-likesymptomsweretobetested.AttheendofMarch,theRKIthenchangedtherecommendedtestcriteria to: flu-like symptoms and, at the same time, contact with an infectedperson. At the beginning ofMay, the President of the RKI, Professor LotharWieler, announced people with even “the slightest symptoms” should betested(29).

The responsibility for translating these dubious decisions into action layentirelywithinthehandsofthelocalhealthauthorities.Aco-workeratourlabwasatypicalexample:thecoachofherhandballteamwascoronaviruspositive.Theplayers–allfromdifferentadministrativedistricts–weresenthomeon14-dayquarantine.Oneplayerdevelopedsymptomswithcoughingandhoarsenessandwantedtogettestedbutwasrefusedonthegroundsthatshehadnofever.Aplayer from a neighbouring district had no symptoms but the local healthauthorityorderedatestdespitethisfact.

This resulted inchaos,causedby theappalling ineptitudeof theauthoritiesfrom top to bottom. What would have been urgently needed instead werescientifically sound studies to clarify basic issues of virus dissemination. Asmanyaspossibleshouldhavebeentestedinoutbreakareas.Antibodyresponsesinthosethathadtestedpositivelycouldhavesubsequentlybeenassessed.

Only a single such study addressing these questions was undertaken inGermany:theHeinsberginvestigationconductedbyProfessorHendrikStreeck,Director of the Institute forVirology at theUniversity ofBonn.Aware of theimportanceofthepreliminarydata,thesewerepresentedatapressconference–whereStreeckwas tornapartby thedisbelievingmedia(30,31).The fatality ratewas ridiculed as being impossible because it was ten times lower than whatacknowledged experts and theWHO had been spreading as established facts.Aftercompletionofthestudy,finalresultsessentiallyconfirmingthepreliminaryreportwereagainpresented,andagaindeemedby themedia tobe flawedandinconclusive. But the results of the study spoke for themselves(32) – and theycontradictedthepanicpropagandaofthemedia.

3.Thenumberofconductedtestsdirectlyinfluencesinfectionstatistics

Athirdfactoraddedtothestatisticalmess.Imaginethatyouwantedtocountthenumberofamigratorybirdspeciesinalargelakedistrict.Therearehundredsofthousandsbutyourcountingdevicecanonlycount5,000perday.Nextday,youaskacolleaguetohelp,andtogetheryouarriveat10,000counts.Thedayafterthat, two more colleagues join in and 20,000 birds are counted. In short, thehigherthetestingcapacity/numberoftests,thehigherthenumbers–aslongasinnumerableunidentifiedcasesabound,aswithSARS-CoV-2(16,32–36).Themoretestsareperformed, themoreCOVID-19casesare foundduring theepidemic.Thisistheessenceofa“laboratory-createdpandemic”.

Nowrecallthatthetesthasneither100%specificitynor100%sensitivity–meaningthatoccasionallyyouwouldmistakea logforabird.Therefore,evenafterallourbirdshavelongsincemovedon,youwouldstill“find”manybyjustperformingasufficientnumberoftests.

Inconclusion,noreliabledataexistedregardingthetruenumbersofinfectionat any stage of the epidemic in this country.At the peak of the epidemic, theofficial numbersmust have been gross underestimates – in the order of 10 orevenmore.AtitswaneattheendofAprilinGermany,thenumbersmustalsohavebeengrossoverestimates.

Basinganypoliticaldecisionsonofficialnumbersatanystagewasfallacy.

HowmanydeathsdidSARS-CoV-2infectionsclaim?

Here,again,wehavethedilemmaofdefinition:whatisa“coronavirusdeath”?IfIdrivetothehospitaltobetestedandlaterhaveafatalcaraccident–just

asmypositivetestresultsarereturned–Ibecomeacoronavirusdeath.IfIamdiagnosed positive for coronavirus and jump off the balcony in shock, I alsobecomeacoronavirusdeath.Thesameistrueforasuddenstroke,etc.AsopenlydeclaredbyRKIpresidentWieler,everyindividualwithapositivetestresultatthe timeofdeath isentered into the statistics.The first “coronavirusdeath” inthenorthernmoststateofGermany,Schleswig-Holstein,occurredinapalliativeward, where a patient with terminal oesophageal cancer was seeking peacebeforeembarkingonhislast journey.Aswabwastakenjustbeforehisdemisethatwasreturnedpositive–afterhisdeath(37).Hemightequallywellhavebeenpositiveforothervirusessuchasrhino-,adeno-orinfluenzavirus–iftheyhadbeentestedfor.

Thisparticularcasedidnotneedmoretestingorapost-mortemtodeterminetheactualcauseofdeath.

However, with the emergence of a new and possibly dangerous infectiousdisease, autopsies should be undertaken in cases of doubt to clarify the actualcause of death. Only one pathologist ventured to fulfil this task in Germany.AgainstthespecificadviceoftheRKI,ProfessorKlausPüschel,DirectoroftheInstituteofForensicMedicine,HamburgUniversity,performedautopsiesonall“coronavirus victims” and found that not one had been healthy(38). Most hadsufferedfromseveralpre-existingconditions.Oneintwosufferedfromcoronaryheart disease. Other frequent ailments were hypertension, atherosclerosis,obesity,diabetes,cancer,lungandkidneydiseaseandlivercirrhosis(39).

The same occurred elsewhere. Swiss pathologist Professor AlexanderTzankovreportedthatmanyvictimshadsufferedfromhypertension,mostwereoverweight, two thirds had heart problems and one third had diabetes(40). TheItalianMinistryofHealth reported that96%ofCOVID-19hospitaldeathshadbeenpatientswithatleastonesevereunderlyingillness.Almost50%hadthreeormorepre-existingconditions(41).

Interestingly, Püschel found lung embolisms in every third patient(39).Pulmonaryembolismsusuallyarise throughdetachmentofbloodclots indeepveinsof the leg thatareswept into the lungs.Clots typicallyformwhenbloodflowsagsinthelegs,aswhentheelderlyspendthedayseatedandinactive.Ahighfrequencyoflungembolismswasalreadydescribedindeceasedinfluenzapatients50yearsago(42).Thus,wearenotonthevergeofdiscoveringauniquepropertyofSARS-Cov-2thatwouldheightenitsthreat,butwedobearwitnesstotheabsurdsituationwheretheelderlyseektoprotectthemselvesbyobeying

the chant that sounds around theworld: “Stay at home”.Physical inactivity ispre-programmed, thromboses included? Swedish epidemiologist ProfessorJohann Giesecke recommended exactly the opposite: As much fresh air andactivityaspossible.Themanknowshisjob!

The number of genuine COVID-19 fatalities remained unknown outsideHamburg. The situation was no better in other countries. Professor WalterRiccardi,adviser to the ItalianMinistryofHealth, stated inaMarch interviewwith“TheTelegraph”that88%oftheItalian“coronavirusdeaths”hadnotbeenduetothevirus(43).

Theproblemwithcoronavirusdeathcountsissuchthatthenumberscanbeviewed as nothing other than gross overestimates(44). In Belgium, not onlyfatalitieswithapositiveCOVID-19testenteredtheranksbutalsothosewhereCOVID-19wassimplysuspected(45).

Scientific competence did not seem to rule the agenda ofGermany’sRKI.Fortunately, there are scientists who stand out in contrast. Stanford ProfessorJohn Ioannidis is one of the eminent epidemiologists of our times. When itbecameclear that theepidemic inEuropewasnearing itsend,heshowedhowthe officially reported numbers of “coronavirus deaths” could be used tocalculatetheabsoluteriskofdyingfromCOVID-19(46).

Theriskforapersonunder65yearsinGermanywasaboutashighasadailydrive of 24 kilometres. The risk was low even for the elderly ≥ 80 with 10“coronavirusdeaths”per10,000≥80-yearolds inGermany(columnat thefarright).

Calculation of this number is simple. About 8.5 million citizens are ≥ 80years inGermany.About8,500“coronavirusdeaths”wererecordedinthisagegroup.Thisleadstoanabsoluteriskofcoronavirusdeathof10per10,000≥80year-olds.Nowrealisethateveryyearabout1,200of10,000≥80-yearoldsdieinGermany (black column, data from theFederalOffice ofStatistics). Nearlyhalfof themdue tocardiovasculardiseases (CVD),almosta thirdfromcancerand around 10% (over 100) owing to respiratory infections. The latter havealways been caused by a multitude of pathogens including the coronavirusfamily.Itisobviousthatanewmemberhasnowjoinedtheclub,andthatSARS-CoV-2cannotbeassignedanyspecialroleasa“killervirus”.

This isunderlinedbyanotherobservation.Severe respiratory infectionsareregisteredbytheRKIinthecontextofinfluenzasurveillance.TheverticallinemarksthetimewhendocumentationofSARS-CoV-2infectionswasstarted.Wasthere ever any indication for an increase in the number of respiratoryinfections(47)? No, the 2019/20 winter peak is followed by typical seasonaldecline. And note that the lockdown (red arrow) was implemented when thecurvehadalmostreachedbaselevel.

Source:HomepageRKI(Fig.1),https://grippeweb.rki.de/

https://grippeweb.rki.de/

Howdoesthenewcoronaviruscomparewithinfluenzaviruses?The WHO warned the world that the COVID-19 virus was much moreinfectious,thattheillnesscouldtakeaveryseriouscourse,andthatnovaccineormedicationwasavailable.

TheWHOabstained fromexplaining that truly effectivemedicationhardlyexists against any viral disease and that vaccination against seasonal flu isincreasingly recognised as being ineffective or even counterproductive.Furthermore,theWHOdisregardedtwopointsthatneededtofirstbeaddressedbeforeanyvalidcomparisonofthevirusescouldbeundertaken.

HowmanypeopledieofCOVID-19comparedwithinfluenza?

TheWHOclaimed that 3–4%ofCOVID-19 patientswould die,which by farexceededthefatalityrateofannualinfluenza(48).

This is important enough to call for a closer look. Influenza viruses passwave-likethroughthepopulation.Thewavescanbesmallinoneyearandhighin another.Case fatality rates are 0.1% to0.2%during a normal flu season inGermany(49),which translates to several hundreds of deaths. In contrast, therewereapproximately30,000influenza-relateddeathsinthe1995/1996season(50)andapproximately15,000deathsin2002/2003and2004/2005.

The RKI estimates that the last great flu epidemic of 2017/2018 claimed25,000lives(51).With330,000reportedcases,thefatalityratewouldbe~8%(52).As in all previous years, Germany weathered this epidemic withoutimplementinganyunusualmeasures.

TheWHOestimatesthatthereare290,000–650,000fludeathseachyear(53).NowturntoCOVID-19.InMay,theRKIcalculatedthat170,000infections

with7,000coronavirusdeathsequalsa4%casefatalityrate–aspredictedbytheWHO!Conclusion:COVID-19isreallytentimesmoredangerousthanseasonalflu(54).

However,thenumberofinfectionswasatleasttentimeshigherbecausemostmild and asymptomatic cases had not been sought and detected(55–59). Thiswould bring us to a muchmore realistic fatality rate of 0.4%.Moreover, thenumberof“true”COVID-19deathswaslowerbecausemanyormosthaddiedofcausesother than thevirus.Further correctionof thenumberbringsus toarough estimate of 0.1% – 0.3%, which is in the range of moderate flu. Thistallieswellwith theresultsofProfessorStreeck,whoarrivedatanestimateof

0.24%–0.26%basedonthedataofhisHeinsbergstudy.Theaverageageofthedeceasedwhotestedpositivewasaround81years(32).

The conclusion that COVID-19 is comparable to seasonal flu has beenreached by many investigators in other countries. In an analysis of severalstudies, Ioannidis showed that, contingent on local factors and statisticalmethodology, the median infection fatality rate was 0.27%(60). Many otherinvestigatorsarrivedatsimilarconclusions.AllstudiestodatethusclearlyshowthatSARS-CoV-2isnotareal“killervirus”(61–71).

FluandCOVID-19:whoarethevulnerable?

Influenza viruses are dangerous mainly to individuals of ≥ 60 years but cansometimesalsocausefatalinfectionsinyoungerpeople.

A salient feature of the virus is that after its multiplication and release, itinduces the infected host cell to commit suicide. This is amajor predisposingfactor for bacterial super-infections(72), which were the major cause of deathduringtheSpanishflu.

In contrast, coronaviruses are inherently less destructive. Patients showcharacteristic changes in their lungs, but whether the virus is deadly or notdependslessonthevirusandmoreonthepatient’soverallstateofhealth.Timeand again, press reports appear on “completely healthy” young people whononethelesswerecarriedoffbythevirus.Wedonotknowofasinglecasewhereitdidnotturnoutafterwardsthatthepersonhadnotbeen“completelyhealthy”,but ratherhad suffered foryears fromhypertension,diabetesorother illnessesthathadgoneundetected.

Sensationalnews:103year-oldItalianwomanrecoversfromCOVID-19(73)!In fact, she was not the only old lady who survived the infection withoutproblems.Most actually did(74). The record is held by a 113 year-old Spanishwoman(75).

Although themedianageof thedeceased isover80 inGermanyandothercountries(41,76–78),ageperseisnotthedecisivecriterion.Peoplewithoutseverepre-existingillnessneedfearthevirusnomorethanyoungpeople.AsweknowfromPüschel’sandmanyother reports,SARS-CoV-2 isalmostalways the laststrawthatbreaksthecamel’sback.Whilethisiscertainlysadforthefamilyandlovedones,itisstillnoreasontoassignthevirusanyheightenedrole.Weneedtokeepinmindthateveryyear,millionsdieofrespiratorytractinfections,witha

wholespectrumofbacterialandviralagentsplayingcausalroles.Onemustnotforgetthatthetruecauseofadeathisthediseaseorcondition

that triggers the lethal chain of events. If someone suffering from severeemphysemaorend-stagecancercontactsfatalpneumonia,thecauseofdeathisstillemphysemaorcancer(79,80).

Thisbasicruleissimplyignoredintimesofcoronavirus.Evenworse–oncetested positive for SARS-CoV-2, (even falsely) – an individual can remainmarked as a COVID-19 victim for life, depending on the inclination of theresponsibleauthority(81,82).Then,irrespectiveofwhenandwhydeathoccurs,heorshewillentertheCOVID-19deathregister.

Thus, the number of coronavirus deaths will continue to soar incessantly.Fear in the general populace is further fuelled by reports that SARS-CoV-2 ismuchmoredangerousthantheflubecauseitattacksmanydifferentorganswithprobable long-term consequences.Newspaper reports and publications aboundthattheviruscanbefoundintheheart,liver,andkidneys(83).Itmayevenfinditswaytoourcentralnervoussystem?!

Suchheadlinessoundterrifying.However,obtainingpositiveRT-PCRresultsforSARS-CoV-2inorgansother than the lungisnothingsurprising.Thevirususesreceptorstoenterourcellsthatarenotonlyonthesurfaceoflungcells.Buttwoissuesareofdecisiveimportance: theactualviral loadandthequestionofwhetherthevirusescauseanydamage.ThehighestSARS-CoV-2concentrationshavebeen found in the lungs of patients – as is to be expected.Traces of thevirus have been detected in other organs(83). Most probably, they bear norelevance.Untilscientificevidencetothecontraryisavailable,thefindingsmustbeleftforwhattheyare:trivialobservations.

Is there a difference with the flu? No. It has been known for years thatinfluenzacanaffecttheheartandotherorgans(84,85).Allrespiratoryvirusescanfindtheirwaytothecentralnervoussystem(86).ThereisnobasicdifferencewithSARS-CoV-2. Once in a while, patients may suffer from long-termconsequences.Thisappliestoallviraldiseases,andtheyareexceptions.Itistheexceptionthatprovestherule.

Whatdowelearnfromallofthis?COVID-19isadiseasethatmakessomepeoplesick,provesfataltoafew,anddoesnothingtotherest.Likeanyannualflu.

Of course, it was always necessary to take special care not to bring theseagents to elderly persons with pre-existing illnesses. When you feel unwell,

refrainfromvisitinggrandmaandgrandpa,especiallyiftheyaresufferingfroma heart condition or lung disease.Andwhoever has the fluwill stay at homeanyway.Thatishoweverythinghasbeenandhoweverythingshouldcontinue.

The fact thatSARS-CoV-2doesnotconstituteapublicdangerand that theinfectionoftenrunsitscoursewithoutsymptomsmighthaveonedisadvantage.Perhapsasymptomaticpeoplearecontagiousandunknowinglypassthevirusonto others. This fear originated from a publication co-authored and widelypublicisedbyDrosten,inwhichitwasreportedthattheChinesebusinesswomanwho infected an automotive supplier’s staffmember during a visit to Bavariadisplayed no symptoms herself(87). This publication caused a worldwidesensationwithexpectedeffects,foradeadlyvirus thatcouldbetransmittedbyhealthyindividualswasakintoaswiftandinvisiblekiller.Thisfearbecamethedrivingforcebehindmanyextremepreventivemeasures–fromvisitingbansforhospitalisedpatientsallthewaytoobligatorymask-wearing.

Inthemidstofgeneralpanic,averyimportantfactescapedgeneralattention.The major statement of the publication turned out to be false. A follow-upinquiry revealed that the Chinese woman had been ill during her stay inGermany andwas undermedication to relieve pain and reduce fever(88). Thiswasnotmentionedinthepublication(87).

Another study that was published in April by the Drosten laboratory alsocameunder international criticism. It concerned the question about the role ofchildrenindiseasetransmission.AccordingtotheDrostenstudy,asymptomaticchildrenwerejustascontagiousasadults.Thismessagecausedgreatconcerntothe general public and influenced subsequent decisions by the government. Infact,nostudiesexisttoindicatethatchildrenplayanysignificantroleasvectorsfortransmissionofthisdisease.

Bethatasitmay,therewasnoreasonforcompletelypointlessmeasureslikeclosingschoolsanddaycarecentres,whichareknowntodonothingtoprotectthehigh-riskgroups(89).Andno reasonwhatsoever todrive social life and theeconomyagainstthewall.

WhatiswrongwithGermany–andthiswholeworld?Well,allthepicturesdisseminatedsoeffectivelybytheinternationalmedia–

fromItaly,Spain,EnglandandthenevenfromNewYork–coupledwithmodelcalculations for hundreds of thousands, or maybe even millions of deaths –planted the firm conviction in the general populace: It simplyHASTOBE akillervirus!

ThesituationinItaly,Spain,EnglandandtheUSASincetheendofMarch,onesensationoutdidthenext:Italyhadthemostdeaths,thefatalityrateshockedustothecore;SpainsurpassedItaly(inthenumberofinfections);theUnitedKingdombrokethesadEuropeanrecord,exceededonlybytheUS.Thepressdelightedinspreadingasmuchterrifyingnewsashumanlypossible.

Butletusreflectalittle.Theimpactofanepidemicisdependentnotonlyonthe intrinsic properties and deadliness of the pathogen but also to a verysignificant extent on how “fertile” the soil is on which it lands. All reliablefigures tell us we are not dealing with a killer virus that will sweep awaymankind. So what did happen in those countries from which these dreadfulpicturesemerged?

Detailed answers to this question must be sought on the ground.Nevertheless, several facts are sufficiently known to warrant mention here.Problems surrounding coronavirus statistics went totally rampant in Italy andSpain.Elsewhere,testingfortheviruswasgenerallyperformedonpeoplewithflu-likesymptomsandacertainriskofexposuretothevirus.Attheheightoftheepidemic in Italy, testing was restricted to severely ill patients upon theiradmissiontothehospital.Illogically,testingwaswidelyperformedpost-mortemon deceased patients. This resulted in falsely elevated case fatality ratescombinedwithmassiveunderestimatesofactualinfections(90).

Asearlyasmid-March,theItalianGIMBE(GruppoItalianoperlaMedicinaBasata Sulle Evidenze / Italian Evidence-Based Medicine Group) foundationstated that the “degreeof severity and lethality rate are largely overestimated,while the lethality rates in Lombardy and the Emilia-Romagna region werelargelyduetooverwhelmedhospitals”(91).

Thefactthatnodistinctionwasmadebetween“deathby”and“deathwith”coronavirusrenderedthesituationhopeless.Almost96%of“COVID-19deaths”in Italian hospitals were patients with pre-existing illnesses. Three quarterssufferedfromhypertension,morethanathirdfromdiabetes.Everythirdpersonhadaheartcondition.Asalmosteverywhereelse,theaverageagewasabove80years. The few people under 50 who died also had severe underlyingconditions(41).

The inaccurate method of reporting “coronavirus deaths” naturally spreadfearandpanic,renderingthegeneralpublicwillingtoaccept theirrationalandexcessive preventive measures installed by governments. These turned out to

haveaparadoxicaleffect.Thenumberofregulardeathsincreasedsubstantiallyover the number of “coronavirus deaths”. The Times reported on April 15:England and Wales have experienced a record number of deaths in a singleweek,with 6,000more than average for this time of year.Only half of thoseextra numbers could perhaps be attributed to the coronavirus(92). Therewas awell-founded concern that the lockdown may have unintentional but seriousconsequencesforthepublic’shealth(93).

Itbecame increasinglyclear thatpeopleavoidedhospitalsevenwhenfacedwith life-threatening events such as heart attacks because they were afraid ofcatchingthedeadlyvirus.Patientswithdiabetesorhypertensionwerenolongerproperlytreated,tumourpatientsnotadequatelytendedto.

The UK has always had massive problems with its health care system,medicalinfrastructureandashortageofmedicalpersonnel(94,95).DuetoBrexit,theUKalsolacksurgentlyneededforeignspecialists(96).

Many other countries have problems along the same lines. When theinfluenzaepidemicsweptovertheworldinthewinterof2017/2018,hospitalsintheUSwereoverwhelmed,triagetentswereerected,operationswerecancelledandpatientsweresenthome.Alabamadeclaredastateofemergency(97–99).ThesituationwaslittledifferentinSpain,wherehospitalsjustcollapsed(100,101),andinItaly,whereintensivecareunitsinlargecitiesgroundtoahalt(102).

TheItalianhealthcaresystemhasbeendownsizingforyears,thenumberofintensive care beds is much lower than in other European countries.Furthermore, Italy has the highest number of deaths from hospital-acquiredinfectionsandantibiotic-resistantbacteriainallofEurope(103).

Also, Italian society is one of the oldest worldwide. Italy has the highestproportionofover65year-olds(22.8%)intheEuropeanUnion(104).Addtothatthe fact that there is a large number of people with chronic lung and heartdisease, and we have a much greater number in the “high-risk groups” ascomparedtoothercountries.Insum,manyindependentfactorscometogethertocreateaspecialcaseforItaly(105,106).

SincenorthernItalywasparticularlyaffected,itwouldbeinterestingtoaskifenvironmental factors had an influence on the way things developed there.Northern Italy has been dubbed the China of Europe with regard to its fineparticulatepollution(107).AccordingtoaWHOestimate,thiscausedover8,000additional deaths (without a virus) in Italy’s 13biggest cities in 2006(108).Airpollutionincreasestheriskofviralpulmonarydiseaseintheveryyoungandthe

elderly(109).Obviously,thisfactorcouldgenerallyplayaroleinaccentuatingtheseverityofpulmonaryinfections(110).

Suspicionshavebeenvoicedthatvaccinationagainstvariouspathogenssuchas flu, meningococci and pneumococci can worsen the course of COVID-19.InvestigationsintothispossibilityarecalledforbecauseItalyindeedstandsoutwith its officially imposed extensive vaccination programme for the entirepopulation.

Yet despite all these facts, the only pictures that remain imprinted on ourmindsaretheshockingscenesoflongconvoysofmilitaryvehiclescartingawayendlessnumbersofcoffinsfromthenorthernItaliantownofBergamo.

Vice chairman of the Federal Association of German Undertakers, RalfMichal,noted(111): in Italy,cremationsare rather rare.That iswhyundertakerswereoverburdenedwhenthegovernmentorderedcremationsinthecourseofthecoronaviruspandemic.Theundertakerswerenotpreparedfor that.Therewerenot enough crematoriums and the complete infrastructurewas lacking.That iswhythemilitaryhadtohelpout.AndthisexplainsthepicturesfromBergamo.Not onlywas there no infrastructure, therewas also a shortageof undertakersbecausesomanywereinquarantine.

Andfinally,letusexaminetheUnitedStates,whereonlypartsofthecountrywereseverelyaffected. In states likeWyoming,MontanaorWestVirginia, thenumberof“coronavirusdeaths”wasatwo-digitfigure(Worldometers,middleofMay,2020).

The situation inNewYorkwasdifferent.Here, doctorswereoverwhelmedand did not knowwhich patients to treat first, while in other states, hospitalswereeerilyempty.NewYorkwasthecentreoftheepidemic,wheremorethanhalfoftheCOVID-19deathsnationwideoccurred(date:May2020).MostofthedeceasedlivedintheBronx.Anemergencydoctorreported(112):“Thesepeoplecome way too late, but their reasoning is understandable. They are afraid ofbeing discovered. Most of them are illegal immigrants without residencepermits,without jobs andwithout any health insurance. The highestmortalityrateisrecordedinthisgroupofpeople”.

Itwouldbeofinteresttolearnhowtheyweretreated.Weretheygivenhighdoses of chloroquine as recommended by the WHO? About a third of theHispanicpopulationcarriesagenedefect(glucose-6-phosphatedehydrogenase)thatcauseschloroquineintolerancewitheffects thatcanbelethal(113,114).MorethanhalfofthepopulationintheBronxisHispanic.

Countriesandregionscandiffersowidelywithrespecttoamyriadoffactorsthata trueunderstandingofanyepidemicsituationcannotbeobtainedwithoutcriticalanalysisofthesedeterminants.

3Corona-situationinGermany

TheGerman populace should have been reassured that this countrywaswell-positionedandthatdisturbingscenariossimilartothoseseeninnorthernItalyorelsewhereneedNOTbefeared.Instead,theexactoppositehappened.TheRKIissued warning after warning, and the government embarked on a crusade offear-mongering that defied description. Anyone who dared to challenge thewarningthattheworldwasfacingthegreatestpandemicthreatofalltimeswasdefamedandcensored.

The indicators forwhenwhichmeasureswere supposedly necessary or nolongernecessarychangedhaphazardlyaccordingtodemand.AtthebeginningofMarch, it was the doubling rate for the numbers of infections which at firstshould exceed 10 days; butwhen this “goal”was reached, the rate had to befurther slowed to 14days.This objectivewas also quickly achieved so a newcriterionhadtobeissued:thereproductionfactor(“R”),whichsupposedlytoldushowmanypeoplebecameinfectedbyonecontagiousperson.Theauthoritiesat first decided that this number must decrease to less than 1. When thishappened–inmid-March–theyranintodifficultiesandsetouttore-directthenumberupwardbyincreasingthenumbersoftests.AttheendofMay,abitofcreative thinking led to the idea of defining a critical upper limit to theacceptablenumberofdailynewinfections:35per100,000citizensinanytownorregion.

Nowreflect thatperforming just7,000 tests canbeexpected togenerateatleast 35 false-positive results in total absence of the virus! Obviously, noscientifically sound reasoningunderlayanyof theplansandmeasuresdictatedbytheauthorities.Itcannotbeemphasisedenoughthatinfectionnumbersareofno significance if one is not dealingwith a truly dangerous virus.Money andmeans should not bewasted on counting the number of common colds everywinter!

Arbitrarinessandthelackofaplanwoundtheirwaythroughthemeasures.Atthebeginning,facialmaskswerescornedandnotused,eveninovercrowdedbuses.Butwhentheepidemicwasover,itbecamemandatory.DIYstorescouldstayopenforbusinesswhileelectronicsmarketshadtoclose.JoggingwasOK,playingtennistaboo.Everystatehaditsowncatalogueoffines;therehadtobepunishmentsinceweweredealingwithan“epidemicofnationalconcern”.Butwhere was the logic behind all of these measures? A closer look may helpexplainwhathadhappened.

TheGermannarrativeLate in the evening of January 27, 2020, the Bavarian Ministry of Healthannounced Germany’s first coronavirus case, an employee of an automotivesupplier.AChinesebusinesswomanhadbeenonavisit thereoneweekearlier.Theviruswassubsequentlydetectedinseveralothermembersofthecompany.Mosthadnosymptoms,nonewasseriouslyill.Allwereisolatedandputina14-dayquarantine.From thenon, anyone returning froma “high risk” area, be itChina orTyrol,was tested and put in quarantine.A few scattered numbers ofhealthy“cases”weretherebydiscovered.

Then came carnival season in Germany and the western German state ofNorthRhine-Westphaliaisoneofitscentreswherethereisnoholdingback.ThefirstcoronaviruspatientherehadpartiedinthemiddleofFebruarytogetherwithhiswifeand300othermerrycarnivalrevellersinthedistrictofHeinsberg.Whathappenednext sounded thenationalalarm:coronavirusoutbreak inHeinsberg;many patients critically ill; local hospital overwhelmed! Schools and day carecentreswereclosedandallcontactpersonsputinquarantine.AtthebeginningofMarch,theMinisterofHealth,JensSpahn,stillurgedprudence.Masseventswerecancelled,otherwiseoverallcalmnessreigned.

ButonMarch9,alarmbellsrang.ThefirstcoronavirusfatalitiesinGermanyoccurred. A 78-year old man from the Heinsberg district and an 82-year oldwoman fromEssen succumbed to the virus. Theman had amultitude of pre-existingillnesses,amongthemdiabetesandheartdisease,thewomandiedfrompneumonia. Drosten warned against a threatening coronavirus wave(115):“Autumnwillbeacritical time, that isobvious.At that time, I expecta rapidincreaseofcoronaviruscaseswithdireconsequencesandmanydeaths…Whodowewant to save then, a severely ill 80 year-old or a 35 year-oldwith raging

viral pneumoniawhowouldnormally diewithinhours, butwouldbeover theworstafterthreedaysonaventilator?”.

ThepandemicisdeclaredOnMarch 11, theWHO declared the pandemic. The very next day, Germangovernorsofstatevotedtocancelallmassgatherings.Onthesameday,areportfromFrance: alldaycarecentres, schools, collegesanduniversitieshavebeenclosed until further notice.Germany followed suit: one day later, theGermanstatesorderedallschoolsanddaycarecentresclosedfromMarch16.Therewastalkofa“tsunami”inthewakeofwhichcountlessliveswouldbeclaimedunlesswemanagedto“flattenthecurve”.Allofasudden,everyonehadavoiceandanopinion, nomatterwhether astrophysicist or trainee journalists, and nomatterwhether they had not an inkling of knowledge about infectious diseases.Projectionswerepresentedeveryday,exponentialgrowthwasexplainedtousonevery channel, showing us how difficult it is to grasp or to even stop thisdevelopment because the rate of infection seemed to double weekly.Withoutstrictmeasureswewouldhaveonemillioninfectionsbymid-May.AccordingtoRKIPresidentWieler, the numberof fatalities inGermanywould soar up andapproachItaliannumberswithinjustafewweeks(116).

Forthefirsttime,therewasmentionofapossiblelockdown.OnMarch14,theFederalMinistryofHealthtweeted(117):

   AttentionFAKENEWS!ItisclaimedandrapidlybeingdistributedthattheFederalMinistryofHealth/Federalgovernmentwillsoonannouncefurthermassiverestrictionstopubliclife.ThisisNOTtrue!

Two days later, onMarch 16, further massive restrictions to public life wereannounced(118).

Public life was rapidly shut down. Clubs, museums, trade fairs, cinemas,zoos, everything had to be closed. Religious services were prohibited,playgrounds and sports facilities fenced off. Elective surgery would bepostponed.Theprimarygoal:thehealthcaresystemmustnotbeoverwhelmed.

While alarmismwas expanding here in Germany, someone else raised hisvoice.Someonewhoreallyknowswhatheisdoingandwhomwehaveheardofseveraltimesbefore,ProfessorJohnIoannidis.Hereisasummaryofhisarticle“Afiascointhemaking?”(119):

The current coronavirus disease, COVID-19, has been called a once-in-a-century pandemic.But itmayalso be a once-in-a-century evidence fiasco.WelackreliableevidenceonhowmanypeoplehavebeeninfectedwithSARS-CoV-2.Draconiancountermeasureshavebeenadoptedinmanycountries.Duringlong-lastinglockdowns,howcanpolicymakerstell if theyaredoingmoregoodthanharm?Thedatacollectedsofaronhowmanypeopleareinfectedandhowtheepidemic is evolving are utterly unreliable. Given the limited testing to date,somedeathsandprobablythevastmajorityofinfectionsduetoSARS-CoV-2arebeingmissed.Wedon’tknowifwearefailingtocaptureinfectionsbyafactorofthreeor300.Nocountrieshavereliabledataontheprevalenceofthevirusinarepresentativerandomsampleofthegeneralpopulation.Reportedcasefatalityrates, like the official 3.4% rate from the World Health Organization, causehorror–andaremeaningless.Patientswhohavebeen tested forSARS-CoV-2aredisproportionately thosewithseveresymptomsandbadoutcomes.Theonesituation where an entire, closed population was tested was the DiamondPrincesscruiseshipanditsquarantinedpassengers.Thecasefatalityratetherewas1.0%,butthiswasalargelyelderlypopulation,inwhichthedeathratefromCOVID-19 is much higher. Adding to these extra sources of uncertainty,reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the generalU.S. populationvary from 0.05% to 1%. If that is the true rate, locking down theworldwithpotentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totallyirrational. It’s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. Frustrated andtryingtoavoidthecat,theelephantaccidentallyjumpsoffacliffanddies.CouldtheCOVID-19casefatalityratebethatlow?No,somesay,pointingtothehighrateinelderlypeople.However,evensomeso-calledmildorcommon-cold-typecoronavirusesthathavebeenknownfordecadescanhavecasefatalityratesashigh as 8% when they infect elderly people in nursing homes. In fact, such“mild”coronaviruses infect tensofmillionsofpeopleeveryyear,andaccountfor3%to11%ofthosehospitalisedintheU.S.withlowerrespiratoryinfectionseach winter. If we had not known about a new virus out there, and had notchecked individuals with PCR tests, the number of total deaths due to“influenza-like illness” would not seem unusual this year. At most, we mighthavecasuallynoted that flu thisseasonseems tobeabitworse thanaverage.Themediacoveragewouldhavebeen less than foranNBAgamebetween thetwomost indifferent teams.Oneof thebottom lines is thatwedon’tknowhowlong social distancing measures and lockdowns can be maintained withoutmajorconsequencestotheeconomy,society,andmentalhealth.

Regrettably, this voice of reason remained unheard by our politicians andtheir advisers. Instead, the prediction ventured by Professor Neil Ferguson,ImperialCollegeLondon,made theheadlines: ifnothing isdoneand thevirusallowedtospreaduncontrolled,morethan500,000peoplewilldieintheUKand2million in theUS(120).Notonlydid thismake the rounds, it struck fear intoheartsandsouls.

Incidentally, Ferguson is the same authoritywho predicted 136,000 deathsduetomadcowdisease(BSE),200milliondeathsduetoavianfluand65,000deaths during the swine flu – in all cases there were ultimately a fewhundred(121). Inotherwords,hewaswrongevery time.Do journalistsactuallyhaveaconscienceand,ifso,whydotheynotcheckthefactsbeforedistributingtheir news? Naturally, here too it later became apparent that Ferguson’spredictionwastotallywrong.Butthiswasneverreportedbythemedia.

FortheRKI,theheadlinesseemedtobejusttherightthing.Itwarnedofanexponentialincrease(122):“Withthisexponentialgrowth,theworldwillhave10millioninfectionswithin100daysifwedonotsucceedincurbingthenumberofnew infections”.Modelcalculationswerepublished thatpredictedhundredsofthousandsofdeathsinGermany(123).

Politiciansentereda raceforvoterpopularity–whocouldprofit themost?MarkusSöder,StatePresidentofBavaria,presentedhimselfas“ActionMan”,emanating force and determination in front of the cameras, and declaring hisintent to fight the virus to the finishwith all themeans at his disposal. Södersurgesaheadwiththefirstdraconianmeasures:stay-at-homeorderforBavariansasofMarch21.Novisitstolovedonesinhospitals.Nochurchservices.Shopsandrestaurantsclosed.Amongotherincrediblemeasures.

NationwidelockdownWhat impressionwould itmakeon theworld ifeach federal state inGermanyhaditsownrules?Sothemeasureswerehastilyemulatedthroughoutthenation.The“stay-at-homecommand”soundedtoonegative,sowewerepresentedwitha “lockdown” on March 23 in the guise of a “nine-point plan”. This meantnationwide confinement orders. A far-reaching contact ban was imposed,congregationsofmorethan2peopleinpublicwereforbidden.Restaurants,hairdressers, beauty parlours, massage practices, tattoo studios and similarbusinesseshadtoclose.Violationsofthesecontactbansweretobemonitoredby

a regulatory agency and failure to comply was to be sanctioned. Penaltycatalogueswerehastilypatchedtogether.Somestateswenttoextremes.Bavaria,Berlin,Brandenburg, theSaarland,SaxonyandSaxony-Anhaltenacteddecreesthat allowed leaving homes and entering public spaces only with a “valid”reason. At the same time, hospitals were so empty that they were able toaccommodatepatientsfromItalyandFrance(124).

OnMarch25, theGermanparliamentannouncedan“epidemicsituationofnationalconcern”, so that two days later the hurriedly compiled new “law toprotect thepopulationduringanepidemic situationofnational concern”couldbeimplemented–largelyunnoticedbythegeneralpopulation.ItempoweredtheFederalMinistry of Health to determine, by decree, a series ofmeasures thatviolatethefirstarticleoftheGermanconstitution:Humandignityisinviolable.

These political decisions were made in the absence of any evidence thatmighthavejustifiedthem.Itwasforthatreasonthatwedecidedtowriteanopenletter to ChancellorMerkel(28) in which questions of fundamental importancewereraised.Theintentwastogivethegovernmentthechancetoturnbackfromthewrong trackwithdignity.Butouropinions,and thoseofmanyotherswhodidnotagreewiththegovernmentline,wereignoredanddissentingvoiceswerediscredited innewspapersand themedia. Itgoeswithout saying thatweneverreceivedananswer.

Instead,attheendofMarch,itwasofficiallyproclaimedthattheviruswasstillspreadingtoofast.Casenumbersdoubledevery5days.Thegoalmustbetoflattenthecurvesothedoublingtimeisextendedto10days.Onlythuswouldwepreventthehealthcaresystemfrombeingoverwhelmed(125).

ThecontentsofaninternaldocumentoftheGermanMinistryoftheInterior(GMI)were then released to thepublic.Thereone learned that theworst-casescenarioforecast1.15millionfatalitiesiftheviruswasnotcontained(126,127).Ifwelookat thenumbersofreported infections in thefirst fourweeksofMarch(calendar weeks (CW) 10–13), we can see that this actually looks likeexponential growth, exactly as the RKI proclaimed. And that is how it waspresentedeverywhere.

However,what theRKIdidnotpointoutwas that incalendarweek12 thenumber of tests had approximately tripled and increased again the followingweek. The RKI apparently did not feel duty-bound to truth and clarificationtowards the population. So therefore, are these figures distorted?Why didn’ttheycorrectthenumbers?Thatcouldhavebeenachievedbystatingthenumberofinfectionsper100,000testsasshownintheseconddiagram.

TheRKItextshouldratherhavereadasfollows:“Dearfellowcitizens,ournumbers showno exponential increase of new infections. There is no need toworry.”

Indeed, theepidemic is literally“over thehill”,asyoucannicelysee fromtheR-curveoftheRKI,whichwaspublishedonApril15intheEpidemiologicalBulletin17(128):

Whatisglaringlyevident?1) The epidemic had reached its peak at the beginning to the middle of

March,wellbeforethelockdownonMarch23.2) The lockdown had no effect: numbers dropped no further after its

implementation.

April2020:noreasontoprolongthelockdownHow did things look in themiddle of April when the decision of once againprolongingthelockdownwaspending?

Everythingwasreallyclearnow.JustliketheR-value,thenumberofnewlyinfectedcasesshowedthatthepeakofinfectionhadpassed(Figure:www.cidm.online).Theuppercurvedepictsthenumberof“newlyinfected”withtheinitialincreaseasofficiallypresented;thelowershowsthosenumbersstandardizedto100,000tests.Columnsshowtheactualnumbersofconductedtests.

The fact is that there had never been a danger of hospitals beingoverwhelmedbecause therehadneverbeenanexponentialgrowthof infection

http://www.cidm.online

numbers.Therewerethousandsofemptybeds.Thereneverwasagiant“wave”ofCOVID-19patients.Notbecausethemeasuresweresoeffective,butbecausethe epidemic was over before they were put in place. But all the hospitalspostponed,orevensuspended,allelectivesurgeriesandproceduressuchashipor knee operations or check-ups for cancer patients. Many hospitals reportedoccupancy reductionsofup to30%andmore.Doctorswereputon short-timeworkinghours(129).

ThelockdownisextendedOnApril 15,Germanyextended the lockdown.The rules for socialdistancingandcontactrestrictionswereprolonged.Inpublic,socialdistancingof1.5mwasmandatoryandyouwereonlyallowedtobeoutsideyourdomicilewithmembersofyour familyandoneotherpersonwhowasnotpartofyourhousehold.Theban on meetings in houses of worship was prolonged. Social events wereprohibited.Somerestrictionswereeased.Shopswitharetailspaceofupto800square metres were allowed to re-open. Car dealers, bicycle shops and bookstoreswereexcludedfromthisrestrictionandwereallowedtoopentheirdoorsregardless of size. But amazingly, no matter whether a crocheted scarf or aclinicalfacemaskisused–masksbecamemandatory!

MandatorymasksThereissimplyalackofclearevidencethatpeoplewhoarenotillorwhoarenot providing care to a patient should wear a mask to reduce influenza orCOVID-19transmission(130).

We are not aware of any single scientifically sound and undisputed articlethatwouldcontradictthefollowing:

1)Thereisnoscientificevidencethatsymptom-freepeoplewithoutcoughorfeverspreadthedisease.

2)Simplemasksdonotandcannotstopthevirus.3)Masksdonotandcannotprotectfrominfection.4)Non-medicalfacemaskshaveverylowfilterefficiency(131)5)Cottonsurgicalmaskscanbeassociatedwithahigherriskofpenetration

ofmicroorganisms(penetration97%).Moistureretention,reuseofclothmasksandpoorfiltrationmayresultinincreasedriskofinfection(132).

Since the government enforced the use of masks, many elderly peoplebelievedthattheyweresafewhilewearingthem.Nothingcouldbefurtherfromthetruth.Wearingamaskcanentailserioushealthhazards,especiallyforpeoplewithpulmonarydiseaseandcardiacinsufficiency,forpatientswithanxietyandpanicdisordersandofcourseforchildren.EventheWHOoriginallystatedthatgeneralwearingofmasksdidnotserveanypurpose(133).

WhatdidtheRKIsay?Inaccordancewiththeshiftinpoliticalopinion,theyalsochangedtheirpreviousrecommendationsandsupportedmask-wearing.“Ifpeople – even without symptoms – wore masks as a precaution, it couldminimizetheriskofinfection.Ofnote,thisisnotscientificallydocumented.”

A report claiming that mask-wearing had provided positive effects wasbasically flawed(134). According to the study, the effects (drop in numbers ofinfections) became apparent 3–4 days after implementation of the regulation.However, this is impossible. The RKI states: “An effect of the respectivemeasures can only be seen after a delay of 2–3weeks because on top of theincubation period (up to 14 days) there is a time delay between illness andreceiptofthereports.”(135)

Infact,thereisnostudytoevensuggestthatitmakesanysenseforhealthyindividuals to wear masks in public(136,137). One might suspect that the onlypoliticalreasonforenforcingthemeasureistofosterfearinthepopulation.

Lastargumentforextensionoflockdown:theimpendingsecondwave?

The constant fear-spreading experts of the government obviously pursue thesame goal. In Germany, Drosten warned again and again. And somehow itseemedasifeverycountryhaditsown“Drosten”.

AttheendofApril,heagainfantasizedaboutthebig-timewaveinGermany– now, of course, the second big wave(138): “Would the R-value throughcarelessness…beonce againmore than1 and thereby exponentially increasevirusspread,thiswouldlikelyhavedevastatingconsequences.Sincethewaveofinfection would start everywhere at the same time, it would have a differentmomentum.”

Butwhereshouldthissecondwaveofinfectioncomefrom?Drosten:WecanlearnthisfromtheSpanishflu.Itstartedat theendof the

First WorldWar, and most of the 50 million victims died during the second

wave.Thatistrue.ButatthetimeoftheSpanishflu,antibioticswerenotavailable

to treat secondary bacterial infections that were the main cause of death(139).Consequently, people of all ages died. Whoever compares COVID-19 to theSpanishfluiseithercompletelycluelessordeliberatelyintendstospreadfear.

It isclearthatviruseschangebutdonotsimplydisappear.Justastherehasalwaysbeenafluseason,therehasalsoalwaysbeenacoronavirusseason(140).

Hereweseethetypicalcourseofacoronavirusepidemic(141):

Does this look vaguely familiar and reminiscent of our RKI datawith theMarchpeak?

Butwait,thisFinnishstudystemsfrom1998!So,ifanygovernmentshoulddecidetheywantasecondwave,alltheyneed

to do is to radically increase the number of tests in the annual coronavirusseason. This simple manipulation will not fail to trigger the next laboratorypandemic.

RelaxingtherestrictionswiththeemergencybrakeappliedProfessor Stefan Homburg, Director of the Institute of Public Finance at theUniversity of Hannover, never tired of explaining why the RKI numbersthemselvescalledforimmediateterminationofallmeasures(142).

He was not the only one, several others raised their voices. But criticalopinionswerecompletelyignored.Why?Didthegovernmenthaveanexclusivecontract with Drosten, who keeps on warning and warning: by loosening

restrictions, Germany will risk losing its lead in the fight against thepandemic(143).

Buteventuallythetimearrived.ThebeginningofMaywitnessedacautiousreopeningofshops.Schoolsanddaycarecentreswouldsoonbeable toadmitchildrenagain.Contactrestrictionswereslightlyrelaxedandlifewasrestarted,butatapainfullyslowpace.

But the RKI warns and warns and warns(144): “The reproduction factor ismorethan1onceagain.It’sat1.1,tobeexact…”.

Horrorofhorrors,werewe too rash?Manywerepuzzled that thedailyR-factor fluctuated erratically. This of coursewas due to the generally unknownfactthatwheninfectionnumbersareverylow,theR-factorcanbemanipulatedatwillsimplybyalteringthenumberoftestsconducted.

Andthen,thegreatscare:Dowepossiblyhaveexcessmortality(145)?Excess mortality? Really? Could it possibly have anything to do with the

collateral damage invoked by the unwarranted measures? This question wasposedbyaseniormemberoftheriskanalysisdivisionattheGermanMinistryoftheInterior.Heproducedaremarkabledocumentinwhichtherisksofcollateraldamage were meticulously analysed. He arrived at the conclusion that themeasures were excessive, and that they caused immense and irreparablecollateraldamagewithoutprovidinganytruebenefits.Thesynopsisofthepaperwas sent to ten external experts, including ourselves, to have the numberschecked.

He then attempted topresent thedocument to theMinister: unsuccessfully.Hethensentthedocumenttohiscolleaguesinriskassessmentdivisionsaroundthecountry.Andwassuspendedforhisefforts.

Westatedinapressreleasethatweconsideredtheconclusionsofthepapertobeveryimportant.ButtheMinistryridiculedthedocument,sayingthatitwasnomore than a private opinion(146). Themedia chimed in and considered thecaseclosed.

Lockdownextendedagain!

AttheendofMay,justbeforetheagreementoncontactrestrictionsbetweenthegovernment and the federal states expired, a further extensionof themeasureswasproclaimeduntilJune29.

OnMay 25,Minister ofHealth, JensSpahn stated in themostwidespreadGerman daily newspaper, “Under no circumstances should the impression be

gainedthatthepandemicisalreadyover.”Only chancellorMerkel could top this– and so shedid4days later. In an

historicdeclaration,sheannouncestothedepressednation:“Thepandemichasjustbegun!”

AndthisatatimewhentheepidemicswerealloverthroughoutEurope.But an extension of the lockdown seemed tomake sense in the light of a

recentarticlepublishedinNature,oneofthemostprestigiousscientificjournalsin theworld.Only research groups of high standing have realistic chances ofseeingtheirnamesinprintinthisjournal.ImperialCollegeLondonralliedsuchagroup,amongwhomthenameNeilFergusonmayringabell.Inaremarkablestudy, the investigators presented a computer-based analysis showing that thegloballockdownhadsavedmanymillionsoflives(147).

Known only to few was the fact that a string of protests by scientists ofinternationalstandingrainedintoNature’soffice.Allpointedtothefundamentalflaws in the analysis that had caused false conclusions to be drawn.Correctlyhandled,thedataactuallyshowedtheopposite:thelockdownhadhadnoeffectonthecourseof thepandemic.Readerswhowishtoreadthepapershouldnotforgettolookatthesecriticalcommentsthatfollowafterthearticle(148).

So,whileothercountrieslikeDenmarkatnotimerecommendedthathealthypeople who move around in public generally wear face masks(149) and othercountries like Latvia were well on their way to freedom,Merkel and friendsdecidedagainsttoomuchlibertyfortheirpeople.Themasksmuststayon!

4Toomuch?Toolittle?What

happened?

OverburdenedhospitalsThe pictures from Italy and Spain incited fear. Mortally ill people and noavailable ventilators? How dreadful. Deaths were depicted as slow, mercilessdrownings.We were shown what happens when hospital capacity reaches itslimits and beyond.During all the deliberations aboutwhatwas to be done inGermany,therewasalways–firstandforemost–thefearstokedbytheRKIthatsuch scenarios happening in Germany could not be ruled out. As a result,ventilatorswerepurchased,intensivecarebedswereheldinreserve,operationswere postponed or cancelled. In Berlin a new hospital for 1,000 patients washurriedlybuilt–in38days–andthen,whenitwascompleted,notonepatientinsight(150).

We simply must take a closer look at this. At the beginning of March itbecameclearthattheepidemicwassweepingthroughGermany.Wasourhealthcare system well prepared? Professor Uwe Janssens, President of theInterdisciplinaryAssociationof IntensiveCareandEmergencyMedicine,gavethe all-clear in the “Deutschlandfunk” (GermanWorld Service)(151): “We haveenough intensive care beds!”. Even if we were to have as many coronavirusinfections as Italy, we had approximately 28,000 beds in intensive care units,25,000ofwhichwereequippedwithventilators,sonearly34bedsper100,000citizens. Thiswas like no other country inEurope. ProfessorReinhardBusse,leader of the specialist field “Management of theHealth Care System” at theTechnical University in Berlin, gave the all-clear as well: “Even if we hadconditionslikeinItaly,wewouldbenowhereneartobeingoverburdened”(152).

ButtheRKIkeptfosteringfear.The“numberofintensivecarebedswillnot

besufficient”,Wieler,presidentoftheRKIandtrainedveterinarian,announcedatthebeginningofApril(153).Why?Wielerexplained:“Theepidemiccontinuesandthenumberoffatalitieswillkeepgoingup”.

Actually, therealexplanation–keptunder lockandkeyat that time–wasquitedifferent.ItcametolightinMay,whenapreviouslyconfidentialdocumentappeared on the website of the German Ministry of the Interior(154). Theshockingcontentsconfirmedcirculatingrumours.Thedocument,datingtomid-March,was theminutesofameetingof thecoronavirus task-force.There,onewas astounded to learn that fear-mongeringwas the official agenda created tomanage the epidemic. All the pieces of the puzzle then fell into place.Everything had been planned. The high numbers of infection were purposelyreportedbecause thenumbersofdeathswould“sound too trivial”.Thecentralgoalwastoachieveamassiveshockeffect.Threeexamplesaregivenhowtostirupprimalfearsinthegeneralpopulation:

1)PeopleshouldbescaredbyadetaileddescriptionofdyingfromCOVID-19as“slowdrowning”.Imaginingdeath throughexcruciatingslowsuffocationincitesthemostdread.

2)Peopleshouldbetoldthatchildrenwereadangeroussourceof infectionbecausetheywouldunwittinglycarrythedeadlyvirusandkilltheirparents.

3)Warnings about alarming late consequences of SARS-CoV-2 infectionswere to be scattered. Even though not formally proven to exist, they wouldfrightenpeople.

Altogether, this strategy would enable all intended measures to beimplementedwithgeneralacceptancebythepublic.

HORRIBLE!

Nowthatthemethodinthemadnessisknown,itbecomesmoreunderstandablewhyWieler steadfastlyadhered tohisprojections.Numbersof infectionswereused to calculate the number of intensive care beds that would be needed,without taking into account that 90% of infected individuals would not fallseriously ill.And that themajority of patientswho did require hospitalisationwouldrecoverandbedismissed.

Simplyaddingthedailynumberofnewinfectionstothecurve(topcurvesinthegraph)wasofcoursesenseless.Therecoveriesshouldhavebeensubtractedfrom thenumberofpositively testedpersons if a realistic indicatorofhospitalburdenhadreallybeensought.

Strictly speaking, one would also have to subtract the deceased, but sincethereweresofew–tragicandsadasthatwasforeveryindividualcase,itmadenodifferenceinthegraphicrepresentation.

The fact is that we were never at any risk of our health care systemcollapsing. In mid-April there was NO REASON for further measures. Allshould have been revoked immediately. While the hospitals waited for non-existent coronavirus patients, those genuinely requiring treatment were notadmitted.Bedswereempty.Hospitalsranintofinancialproblems.Manyappliedforshort-timeworkfordoctorsandnursingstaff–inthemidstoftheimagined

crisis(155). The situation in other countries was similar. Thousands of USphysicianswere placed on administrative leave because the number of routineoutpatientvisitsdroppedbyalandslide(156).

Shortageofventilators?At the commencement of the pandemic, experts contended that invasiveventilationwouldbeafirst-linerequirementtorescueCOVID-19patientsfromahorribledeathbysuffocation.Atthesametime,thismeasurewouldminimizethe risk of infection of medical personnel. As a consequence, the Germangovernmentdecidedtopurchaseandstorethousandsofventilatorsinreserve.

Thisturnedouttobeaverybadbet(157–161).Artificially ventilated patients require very close attention(162). Oxygen is

forcedthroughatubeintothelungs.Itisnotuncommonforbacteriatohitcharide and then cause life-threatening pneumonia. The risk of these hospital-acquiredinfectionsrisesbytheday,whichiswhymedicalstudentslearnthattheventilatorshouldbeusednolongerthanisabsolutelynecessary.

In contrast, COVID-19 patients were often put on ventilation early andwithout true need, and kept on the apparatus far longer than they ever shouldhave been.Why?Because it was officially stipulated that invasive ventilationwas the best means to reduce the risk of virus spread via aerosol to thepersonnel. However, aerosols probably play no important role in diseasetransmission(163). The sole fact that SARS-CoV-2 can be found in aerosoldroplets(164) does not mean that it is there in sufficient quantities to causeillness(165).

Howmanyliveswerelostbecauseofthisadvice?

Many specialists later stated that COVID-19 patients were intubated andventilated for too long and too often(160,161). The riskswere high and successmore than questionable. Professor Gerhard Laier-Groeneveld from the lungclinic inNeustadt advised that intubation shouldbe avoided in any event.HisCOVID-19patientsreceivedoxygenwithsimplerespiratorymasksandhe lostnotasinglelife(160).

ProfessorThomasVoshaar,ChairoftheAssociationofPneumologyClinics,shared the same view(161). He pointed out that the high death rates in othercountries“shouldbereasonenoughtoquestionthisstrategyofearlyintubation”.

Atthetimeofhisreport,hehadmechanicallyventilatedoneofhis40patients.Thepatientsubsequentlydied.Alltheotherssurvived.

HereisashortenedversionofaradiointerviewwithpalliativephysicianDrMatthias Thöns(166): “Politics these days has a very one-sided orientationtowards intensivecare treatment, towardsbuyingmoreventilatorsandofferingICU beds as a reward. But we must remember that most of the severely illCOVID-19patientsareveryoldpeoplewithmultipleunderlyingdiseases;40%ofthosecomeheavilycare-dependentfromassistedlivingfacilities.Previously,thisgroupwouldordinarilyreceivemorepalliativeinsteadofintensivecare.Butnow, a new disease is diagnosed and this whole client base is turned intointensivecarepatients.”

Hepoints out that according to aChinese study, 97%die despitemaximaltherapy (including ventilation).Of thosewho survive, only a small number isable to return to their former lives,manyof them leftwith severe disabilities.Thesearecircumstancesthatmostseniorswouldrefusetorisk.Herightlysaysthat critically ill patients shouldopenlybe told the truthabout their condition.They should themselvesdecidewhichcourse theywish to take: intensive caretreatmentinisolation,orsymptomatictreatmentinthecircleoflovedones.Theindividualwillshouldhavehighestpriority.Thönsisquitesurethatmostpeoplewouldpreferthesecondoption.

Werethemeasuresappropriate?It became clear fairly early thatSARS-CoV-2wasnot a killer virus and therenever had been an exponential increase in new infections. The price forattemptingtocontaintheviruswasabsurdlyhigh.

Whatdidthegovernmentdoright??

The authors have no answer to this question. They look forward to receivingyours.

Whatdidthegovernmentdowrong?

ItproclaimedanepidemicofnationalconcernthatdidnotexistItdeprivedcitizensoftheirrightsItmadearbitraryinsteadofevidence-baseddecisionsItintentionallyspreadfearItenforcedsenselesslockdownandmask-wearingItdevastatedtheeconomyanddestroyedlivelihoodsItdisruptedthehealthcaresystemItinflictedimmensesufferingonthepopulace

Whatshouldourgovernmenthavedone?Itshouldhavedonewhatthechancellorandministerssolemnlydeclaredwhentheywereswornintooffice:

“I swear that I will use my power for the WELL-BEING of the Germanpublic, to further itsADVANTAGES, to preventDAMAGE, toPRESERVEandDEFEND the constitution and the federal statutes, to diligently fulfil my dutyandpracticejusttreatmenttowardseveryone.”

5Collateraldamage

DrDavidL.Katz,PresidentoftheTrueHealthInitiative,askedonMarch20ifourfightagainstthecoronaviruswasworsethanthedisease(167).Couldtherenotbe more specific means to combat the disease?What about all the collateraldamage?

Stanford Professor Scott Atlas said during an interview that under themisassumption that we have to contain COVID-19, we have created acatastrophic situation in the health care sector(168). Irrational fears weregeneratedbecausethediseaseasawholeisamildone.Thus,thereisnoreasonforcomprehensivetestinginthegeneralpopulationanditshouldbedoneonlywhereappropriate,namelyinhospitalsandnursinghomes.AttheendofApril,Atlas published an article entitled “The data are in – stop the panic and totalisolation”(169).

InGermany,WolfgangSchäuble,presidingofficeroftheGermanparliament,stated that not absolutely everythingmust be subordinate to the protection oflife(170).

“Ifthereisanythingatallthathasanabsolutevalueinourconstitution,itishumandignitywhichisinviolable.Butitdoesnotprecludethatwehavetodie.”

The media immediately flared back in righteous disgust: “Human dignityversushumanlife–canyoubalanceoneagainsttheother?”(171).

Manystillfailtocomprehendthatwehavesacrificedboth.Proponentsofthepointlessmeasuresarguethateverypersonhastherightto

grow as old as possible. Even if the viruswere only the straw that broke thecamel’sback,itwasstillatfault.Withoutthevirus,thedeceasedmayhavelivedmonthsorevenyearslonger.Itisourmoraldutytosacrificeourpersonalwantsandneedswhenlivesofothersareatstake.Theeconomycanrecover,thedeadcannot. The Merkel mantra, chanted day and night by her ardent followers:

“Protecting the health of our citizens must, at all costs, remain our supremegoal.”

Honourableasthismaysound,itbetraysanalarminginabilitytocomprehendthe essence of public welfare. The following numbers have already beenpresentedbutbecauseoftheirimportance,theywillberepeatedhere.Duringthecourseofthisentireepidemic,amaximumnumberof10in10,000over80year-oldshavediedwithorfromthevirus.Thenumberof“true”COVID-19deathscannot be higher than 1–2 per 10,000. How many human lives were reallyprolongedby thehorrendousmeasures?Maybe2–4per10,000?Oreven4–8?Butdefinitelynotmore.Andatwhatcost?

The one employee of the GMI who dared to compile an analysis of thecollateraldamagetothehealthcaresystemwassuspended.Thegovernmentwasnot interested. Nothing can be placed over human life. But what are theconsequences for health andwelfareof thepopulace if the economycollapsesandpeopleareconfrontedwiththeendoftheirexistence?

EconomicconsequencesItwillstrikeallcountries.Theglobaleconomiccrisiscouldplunge500millionpeopleintopoverty,sostatedinapositionpaperbytheUN(172).

TheUSFederalReserve(FED)expectsadramaticdeclineofupto30%inAmerican economic performance(173). FED director Jerome Powell assumes a20% to 25% increase in the unemployment rate. Almost 36.5 million peoplehave lost their jobs. It is “themost traumatic job loss in thehistoryof theUSeconomy,” saysGregoryDaco,USChiefEconomistof theOxfordEconomicsInstitute(174).

The EU commission predicts a deep recession of historic magnitude forEurope(175).

According to theirprognosis, theeconomywill shrinkagood7%andwillnotcompletelyrecoverinthenextyear.

InGermanytoo,theeconomyisstartingtocrumble.SincethesecondhalfofMarchitisdownto80%ofnormaleconomicperformance(176).Reducedhourscompensation is registeredforabout10millionemployees.Withoutshort-timework,theunemploymentratewouldhaveincreaseddramatically,similartotheUS.InAprilwehave“only”300,000additionalunemployed(177).But thiswillnotbetheendofthestory,notbyalongshot.

The government boasted that they are weaving safety nets, the “greatestrescue package in Germany’s history” will help mitigate the collateraldamage(178).Butthatrescuepackageisridiculousinrelationtothedamagethathas been done. Countless people are falling through the net. Existences havebeendestroyedandliveshavebeenlost.Theycannotbesalvagedbysafetynets.

DisruptionofmedicalcareManywhowere illwere afraid to visit hospitals for fear of catching the“killervirus”.Often older peoplewould rather not “be a burden” to their doctors,whotheythoughtwerebattlingtosaveCOVID-19patients.Patientsrequiringmedicalexaminationswereturnedaway,allthatwasnotdeemedof“vitalimportance”cancelledorpostponed.Medicalcheck-upswerenotperformed.Operationswerepostponedtofreeupcapacityfor“coronaviruspatients”.Domesticviolenceagainstwomenandchildrenincreased.Thenumberofsuicidesrose.

DrugsandsuicideFollowingthefinancialcrisisof2008,thenumberofsuicidesroseincountriesall over theworld.According to theNationalHealthGroupWellBeingTrust,unemployment, economic downfall and despair could now drive 75,000Americanstodrugabuseandsuicide(179).TheAustraliangovernmentestimatesa rise in suicides of 50%(180), a number 10 times higher than the number of“coronavirusdeaths”.UnemploymentandpovertyarealsopredictedtomarkedlyincreasesuicideratesinGermany(181).

HeartattackandstrokeUnemployment increases the risk of heart attack to an extent comparable tocigarettesmoking,diabetesandhypertension(182).Butwheredidallthepatientswith heart attacks disappear to? Admissions to emergency care units dropped30% as compared to the previous month. Not because the patients were

miraculouslycuredbutbecausetheywereterrifiedofcatchingthedeadlyvirusin the hospital. Preliminary symptoms went unheeded, even though suchsymptoms are often the harbinger of a deadly attack and need to be closelyattendedtoinhospital.

“Thisisamostdangerousdevelopment…Therearenow50%fewerpatientswithmild symptoms in the emergency room,” explainsDr SvenThonke, chiefphysician at theClinic forNeurology inHanau in a newspaper interview(181).Manypendingstrokesinitiallycausemildsymptomssuchasdizziness,speech,visual problems and muscle weakness. Thonke: “There are now 50% fewerpatients with mild-symptoms in the emergency room.” This is extremelyworrisomebecausemoreoftenthannotmildsymptomsheraldtheseverestrokethatcanberapidlyfataliftheemergencyisnotimmediatelytendedto.

OtherailmentsAccording to the scientific institute of the AOK (German health insurancecompany), the following diagnoses dropped considerably inApril: 51% fewerrespiratorydiseases,47%fewerdiseasesof thedigestive tract, and29%fewerinjuriesandpoisonings(183).

Care of tumour patients was catastrophic.Monitoring of tumour treatmentwas no longer conducted at the required levels. Control examinations werepostponed or cancelled. Patients waited in agony for the next appointment –alonewith their fears and the single remaining question: howmuch timewasstilllefttothem.

Cancelledoperations

30millionelectivesurgerieswerepostponedorcancelledworldwideduringthefirst 12 weeks of the pandemic(184). In 2018, 1.4 million operations wereperformed on average everymonth. 50–90%of all scheduled operationswerepostponedornotperformedinMarch,AprilandMay2020.Thistranslatestoatleast 2 million operations that would normally have been performed. Theconsequencesmustbeprofound.

Furtherconsequencesfortheelderly

InGermany,morethan1,000peopleovertheageof80dieeveryday(185).WhilewearetakingdrasticmeasurestopreventthemfromdyingofCOVID-19,wearemakingtheirliveslessworthliving.Thiscannotbutimpingeonlifeexpectancy.

Qualityoflife

Especiallyinoldage–whenmanyfriendshavealreadypassedonandthebodynolongerworksthewayitoncedid–lifeisnotabouthowmanymoredaysoryearsbutaboutalifeworthliving.Thatcouldbeaccomplishedbyexerciseandremaining active, through social contacts, by taking recreational holidays,visiting events and even shopping sprees,with regular visits to the saunaor afitnessstudioorthedailywalktothecornercafé.

But what happens when, all of a sudden, the café and everything else isclosed?Nomore visits to old friends, nomore social events.And no visitorseither.

Lonelinessandisolation

Functioning social networks safeguard the elderly from loneliness. Five totwenty percent of senior German citizens feel lonely and isolated. After thelockdown,almostallcontactwithotherpeoplestoppedformonths,whichmusthaveworsenedthesefeelings.Forthosewhocannotleavethehouseunassisted,nursingservicesarrange“seniorsocialgroups”,wheretheelderlyarepickeduponce a week and then taken safely home again. It’s not much, but it’s soimportanttobewithotherpeopleagainanddevastatingwhennolongerthere.

Terminalcare

Yes,everyindividualhastherighttoreachasoldanageaspossible.Buteverypersonnearingtheendoftheirlifeshouldalsohavetherighttodecidehowtheywant togo.Mostdonot fear theend.As the timeapproaches,peoplebecomeincreasinglydetachedandwillingtoembarkontheirlastjourney.

Whenwe hear talk about the “older people” andwe are told that it is ourmoral duty to protect them, many picture sprightly seniors who are enjoyingtheir time on ocean liners. In reality, the endangered elderly aremulti-morbidindividualsattheendoftheirlives.Peoplewhohavenotbeenabletoleavetheirbedsfordays,weeksormonths.Peoplewhosetumourshavespreadthroughouttheir bodies and are in constant pain. Peoplewho cannot go on anymore and

maybedonotwanttogoon.Peoplewhosometimesjustwaitforakindfatetorelievethemoftheirsuffering.

Amidstalltheprotectivemeasuresforthehigh-riskgroupsinretirementandnursing homes, at the end the individual decision should have the highestpriority.Mostnolongercarewhether their lovedonesbringthecoronavirus tothem,aslongassomeoneistheretoholdtheirhand,totalkaboutthepast,andtowhisperIloveyouandfarewell(186).

Innocentandvulnerable:ourchildrenChildren–liketheelderly–arethemostvulnerableinoursocietyanditisourduty to care for them.Millions of children in theworld are suffering acutelyfromthecoronavirusmeasures.“Thecoronavirusstrikesmorechildrenandtheirfamilies than thosewhoareactuallygrippedbythe infections,”saysCorneliusWilliams,HeadoftheUNICEFChildProtectionLeague(187).

Mental/psychologicalstress

Childrencannotthrivewithoutsocialcontacts.Separationfromkeypeoplelikegrandmaandgrandpa,auntieanduncle,theirbestfriends–theclosedschools,inaccessible playgrounds and barred sports fields disrupt their lives. Socialethicistspointouthowvitalitisforchildrentobeincontactwiththeirpeers(188).

Educationaldeficits

Childrenhavearighttoeducation.Sincetheschoolshavebeenclosed,millionsofstudentsarelaggingbehindaccordingtoanestimateoftheGermanTeacherAssociation. Their president, Heinz-Peter Meidinger, sees educational deficitsforapproximately3millionchildren,especiallyinstudentsfromdifficultsocialbackgroundsandfromimpoverishedfamilies(189).

Physicalviolence

TensofthousandsofchildreninGermanybecomevictimsofviolenceandabuseeveryyear(190).Crimestatisticsfrom2018showthat

3childrendieintheaftermathofphysicalviolenceeveryweek

10childrenarephysicallyormentallyabusedeveryday40childrenaresexuallyabusedeveryday

Andthese,ofcourse,areonlytheknowncases.Canyouimaginethesituationincoronavirustimes?

When parents are stressed, on the brink of losing their jobs and facingfinancialruin?Whenargumentsandquarrelsbecomeadailyoccurrence?Withincreasedalcoholconsumption?Whenchildrenareathomedayafterday,withnowayofescape?

Teacherswhonormallyplayimportantrolesinsafeguardingendangeredchildrenaregone.Whothenshouldnotifytheyouthwelfareofficeshouldtheneedarise?

Thegovernment’scommissionerforabuse,Johannes-WilhelmRörig,issuedanurgentwarning.TherewereindicationsfromthequarantinedtownofWuhanthat the cases of domestic violence had tripled during the “trapped-at-home”time.Therewere“equallyalarmingnumbers”fromItalyandSpain.

Consequencesfortheworld’spoorestMany in this country took the opportunity to get their house and garden backintoshapeduringthecoronaviruscrisis.Understandably,sincehome-officeworkwas only semi-effective forwant of equipment and slow internet connections.Actually,themajorityofthemiddleclassandtheaffluentwerenotdoingbadly.Well,theneighbourwhonowhastoapplyforHartzIV(unemploymentbenefits)willsurelygetbackonhis feet.People tend to thinkas faras their frontdoor,maybe a bit beyond, but that’s it. Many are not aware that the most severeconsequencesoftenaffectthepoorestofthepoor.Onemustnotcloseone’seyestothefactthattheexistenceandlivesofcountlesspeoplearethreatened.

Existentialconsequences

In India, therearehundredsofmillionsofday-labourers,manyofwhomledahand-to-mouthexistencebeforethecoronavirusrestrictionsrobbedthemoftheirlivelihoods. Now they have no more means to survive. They are “protected”againstthecoronavirusandareinturnlefttostarve.

InmanyAfricancountries,coronavirus lockdownsarebrutallyenforcedby

policeandmilitary.Whoevershowshis faceon thestreets isbeaten.Children,who usually survive on their one meal in school, are forbidden to leave thehouse.They,too,canstarve.

At the end of April, the Head of the UN World Food Program, DavidBeasley, gave a warning before the UN Security Council: because ofcoronavirus, there is a danger that theworldwill face a “hunger pandemic ofbiblical proportions”(191). “It is expected that lockdowns and economicrecessionswillleadtoadrasticlossofincomeamongtheworkingpoor.Ontopof this, financial aid fromoverseaswill decrease,whichwillhit countries likeHaiti,NepalandSomalia,justtonameafew.LossofrevenuefromtourismwilldoomcountrieslikeEthiopia,sinceitrepresents47percentofnationalincome.”

Consequencesformedicalcareandmaintenanceofhealth

Medical care is a luxury that only a few in the poorest countries can afford.Advances and positive developments of recent years are now in danger ofcollapse.

Vaccination campaigns against the measles were suspended in manycountries.Althoughmeasles rarely cause death inwestern countries, 3–6% oftheinfectedpeopleinpoorcountriesdie,andthosewhosurviveoftenhavelife-long disabilities. The virus has claimed 6,500 child deaths in the CongoRepublic(192).

Between 2003 and 2013, Zimbabwe succeeded in lowering yearlymalariainfections from 155 per 1,000 inhabitants to just 22.Now, andwithin a shorttime,therehavebeenmorethan130deathsand135,000infections.Twothirdsofallfatalitieswere<5year-oldchildren.

According to theWHO,malariadeaths in sub-SaharanAfricacould rise to769,000in2020,whichwoulddoublethenumberfor2018.Ifso,theywouldbethrownbacktoa“mortalitystandard”of20yearsago.Theprobablereasonforthiscatastropheisthefactthatinsecticide-treatedmosquitonetscannolongerbeadequatelydistributed.

Are themalaria deaths in Zimbabwe and themeasles deaths in theCongoonlyprecursorsofwhatisinstoreforthecontinent?

Synopsis

Withtheprescribedmeasures,wasourgovernmentabletoprolongthelivesof

peoplewhowould leave us in the next days,months or perhaps a few years?Maybe, maybe not. Were many lives saved through these measures? Theycertainlywerenot,because theserestrictionswere