Corn Situation and Outlook

Corn Situation and Outlook

Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2007

Corn Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1992-2007

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Mill

ion

bu

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

Production Ending Stocks Price/Bu

U.S. Corn Ending Stocks and Price, 1992-2007

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Mill

ion

bu

$1.50

$1.70

$1.90

$2.10

$2.30

$2.50

$2.70

$2.90

$3.10

$3.30

$3.50

Ending Stocks Price/Bu

U.S. & Foreign Corn Ending Stocks 1996-2007

010002000300040005000600070008000

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Year

Mil

lio

n b

ush

els

Foreign Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks

Supply/Demand Projections:2007/2008 Corn ----------Supply/Demand ----------

Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low

Beginning Stocks(MB) 937 937 937Acres (MPA) 86.5 90.5 94.5Acres (MHA) 79.2 82.9 86.6Yield 142 150.3 158Supply(M. Bu) 12252 13412 14629 Use:

Feed 5700Ethanol 3400 Food, Seed 1390 Exports 1975

Ending Stocks 524 947 1370Projected Price $3.80 $3.30 $2.80

Wheat Situation and Outlook


Wheat Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1993-2007

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Mil

lio

n B

u

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

$5.00


U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks and Price, 1993-2007

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Mil

lio

n B

u

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

$5.00


U.S. & Foreign Wheat Ending Stocks, 1996-2007

010002000300040005000600070008000

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Year

Mil

lio

n b

ush

els

Foreign Ending Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks

Supply/Demand Projections:2007/2008 Wheat ----------Supply/Demand ----------

Low/High Exp/Exp High/LowBeginning Stocks(MB) 412 412 412Acres (M. A. Planted) 59.3 60.3 61.3Acres (M.A. Harvested) 51.2 52.1 53.0Yield 40.2 41.7 43.2Supply(M. Bu) 2572 2685 2800 Use:

Food, Seed 1011 Feed, Resid 230 Exports 975


Soybean Situation and Outlook


Soybean Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1993-2007

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Mil

lio

n B

u

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00


U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks and Price, 1993-2007

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Mil

lio

n B

u

$4.00

$4.50

$5.00

$5.50

$6.00

$6.50

$7.00

$7.50

$8.00


U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks vs. Price, 1990-2007

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

6.50

7.00

7.50

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Ending Stocks (MB)

Pri

ce

/Bu

. ‘06

‘05

‘01‘00 ‘99

‘98

‘97

‘96

‘95

‘94

‘93

‘92‘91

‘90‘04

‘03

‘02

‘07

U.S. & Foreign Soybean Ending Stocks, 1996-2007

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006Year

Mil

lio

n B

ush

els


U.S. & Foreign Soybean Meal Ending Stocks, 1997-2007

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006Year

Mil

lio

n M

etri

c T

on

s


U.S. & Foreign Soybean Oil Ending Stocks, 1997-2007

0

1

1

2

2

3

3

4

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006Year

Mill

ion

Me

tric

To

ns


Supply/Demand Projections:2007/2008 Soybeans ----------Supply/Demand ----------

Low/High Exp/Exp High/LowBeginning Stocks(MB) 610 610 610Acres (MA Planted) 65.8 67.1 68.4Acres (MA Harvested) 64.8 66.1 67.4Yield 39.0 41.5 44.0Supply(M. Bu) 3142 3359 3579 Use:

Crushing 1790 Exports 1080 Seed, Feed 169


Grain Sorghum Situation and Outlook


Sorghum Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1996-2007

0.00

100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

600.00

700.00

800.00

900.00

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Mil

lio

n B

u

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50


U.S. Sorghum Ending Stocks and Price, 1996-2007

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Mil

lio

n B

u

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50


Supply/Demand Projections:2007/2008Sorghum ----------Supply/Demand ----------


Beginning Stocks(MB) 48.0 48.0 48.0

Acres (M. P. A.) 6.8 7.1 7.4

Supply(M. Bu) 365 428 488

Use:

Food & Seed 65

Exports 160

Feed 160

Ending Stocks 22 43 64

Projected Price $3.50 $3.25 $3.00

Cotton Situation and Outlook


Cotton Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1993-2007

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Th

ou

sa

nd

Ba

les

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Production Ending Stocks Price(cents/lb)

U.S. Cotton Ending Stocks and Price, 1993-2007

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Th

ou

sa

nd

Ba

les

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

Ending Stocks Price(cents/lb)

U.S. & Foreign Cotton Ending Stocks, 1997-2007

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Year

Th

ou

san

d B

ales


Supply/Demand Projections:2007/2008 Cotton ----------Supply/Demand ----------


Beginning Stocks(MB) 9.5 9.5 9.5Acres (M. P. A.) 11.8 12.2 12.5Acres (MA Harvested) 10.7 11.0 11.3Yield 760 820 880Supply(MB) 26.4 28.3 30.3 Use:

Domestic 4.4 Exports 17.5

Ending Stocks 3.5 6.4 9.3Projected Price/cwt

What Could Change The Outlook?

South America Plant Mix Non-Farm Economic Conditions in U.S.,

World – Oil Supplies, War Exchange Rates China Weather

Documents

Corn Situation and Outlook