Corn and Soybean Stocks, Acreage, and Balance Sheet … · 2019-10-07 · Corn and Soybean Stocks, Acreage, and Balance Sheet Implications Scott Irwin, Darrel Good, and John Newton

Corn and Soybean Stocks, Acreage, and Balance Sheet Implications

Scott Irwin, Darrel Good, and John Newton [email protected] / [email protected] / [email protected] Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics University of Illinois

Presentation Materials Visit the ‘Downloads’ page at www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/webinars

– PDF of slides available soon – Video available tomorrow

Questions

Please submit questions during the presentation

The 2015 Spring Webinar Series is sponsored by 1st Farm Credit

http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/webinars

6,987

6,068

6,859 6,954

7,694

6,523

6,023

5,400

7,008

7,745

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014- 2015-

mil.

bu.

Figure 1. March 1 Corn Stocks

Avg. Guess = 7,609 mbu Source: Reuters Mar 24, 2015

0 47

-217

-45

185

-178 -142

386

-98

136

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014- 2015-

mil.

bu

Figure 2. USDA March 1 Corn Stocks Estimate Minus Average Guess

3,607

3,329 3,147

3,765 3,640

1,165 1,191 1,168 1,270 ???

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

mil.

bu.

Figure 3. First Half and Second Half MY Feed and Residual Use of Corn

First Half (Sep-Feb)Second Half (Mar-Aug)

First Half: 1996/97-2005/06= 64% 2006/07-2009/10= 68% 2010/11-2013/14= 74%

Rate of First Half Disappearance Implied 14/15 MY Feed and Residual Use

74% Observed During 2010/11-2013/14

4,919


5,353


5,688

Implication>>>> Range of Potential Feed and Residual: 4,919 to 5,688

USDA 14/15 Projection 5,300 mbu

Figure 4. Projections for 2014/15 Marketing Year Feed and Residual Use of Corn

1,669

1,787

1,434

1,302 1,270 1,249

1,375

998 994

1,334

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

1,900

2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014- 2015-

mil.

bu.

Figure 5. March 1 Soybean Stocks

Avg. Guess = 1,346 mbu Source: Reuters Mar 24, 2015

-9 -17

76

-20

63

-46

11

64

4

-12

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014- 2015-

mil.

bu

Figure 6. USDA March 1 Soybean Stocks Estimate Minus Average Guess

197.5 190.1

158.1

192.1

263.4

-64.3

-99.2

-52.7

-94.4 ???

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

mil.

bu.

Figure 7. First Half and Second Half Seed and Residual Use of Soybeans

First Half (Sep-Feb)Second Half (Mar-Aug)

Figure 8. Acreage Summary for Principal Crops, CRP, and PP (Million Acres)

Crop 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* Principal Crops 320.4 325.6 319.0 315.4 314.3 324.3 329.9 326.9 324.8

CRP 36.8 34.6 33.7 31.2 31.2 29.7 27.1 25.6 24.3 Prevent Plant 1.6 1.7 4.2 6.9 9.6 1.2 8.3 4.4 0

Total 358.8 361.9 356.9 353.5 355.1 360.3 356.9 356.9 349.1

Figure 8. Acreage Summary for Principal Crops, CRP, and PP (Million Acres)

Crop 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* Principal Crops 320.4 325.6 319.0 315.4 314.3 324.3 329.9 326.9 324.8

CRP 36.8 34.6 33.7 31.2 31.2 29.7 27.1 25.6 24.3 Prevent Plant 1.6 1.7 4.2 6.9 9.6 1.2 8.3 4.4 0

Total 358.8 361.9 356.9 353.5 355.1 360.3 356.9 356.9 349.1

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

*

Milli

on A

cres

Principal Crops

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

*

CRP and Prevented

CRP Prevented

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

*

Total (Principal, CRP, and Prevent)

Range +/- 9 mil acres (+/- 1-2%) Double Crop Correction: +/- 5 mil acres

Highlights: Acreage Summary for Principal Crops Indicates 1% decline for 2015 to 324.8 Mil. Acres CRP Acreage Continues to Decline Total Acres Down 2% on fewer Principal and CRP Acres, and No Reported Prevent (Do Intentions Include Acres Which Could Switch to Prevent?)

Figure 9. March 31 Intentions, U.S. Corn & Soybean Acres in 2015

Highlights: 173.8 Mil. Acres of Corn & Soybeans Planted in U.S. for 2015 Down 464K Acres from 2014 (Red States: 97.5 Mil. Acres 56% of U.S. Total)

Figure 10. March 31 Intentions Minus 2014 Planted Acres, Corn & Soybeans

Highlights: 464K Fewer Acres Planted in 2015 22 States With Fewer Acres (2 Mil. Acres Total) 26 States With Same or More Acres (1.6 Mil. Acres)

89,199

60,000

65,000

70,000

75,000

80,000

85,000

90,000

95,000

100,000

thou

sand

s Figure 11. Planted and Harvested Acreage of Corn

Planted

Harvested Avg. Guess = 88,731 thousand acres

Source: Reuters Mar 24, 2015 Corn Acres Higher Than Trade Guess

Figure 12. March 31 Intentions, U.S. Corn Acres in 2015

Highlights: (Red States: 54 Mil. Acres 60% of U.S. Total) 89.2 Mil. Acres of Corn Planted in U.S. for 2015 Down 1.4 Mil. Acres from 2014 (-2%) Three Straight Years of Corn Acre Declines

Figure 13. March 31 Intentions Minus 2014 Planted Acres, Corn

Highlights: 25 States With Fewer Corn Acres (2 Mil. Acres Total) 1.4 Mil. Fewer Acres Planted in 2015 23 States With Same of More Corn (640K Acres)

-1,8

79

-616

-833

1,67

0

-991

-153

-419

1,92

5

366

308

3,07

3

-32

1,39

6

-606

-242

1,42

7

-1,9

17 -1

,094

-3,500

-2,500

-1,500

-500

500

1,500

2,500

3,500

thou

sand

acr

es

Figure 14. Actual Planted Acres of Corn Minus March Intentions

Actual acreage always differs from March intentions Could we see fewer corn acres in 2015 than

intentions?

84,635

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

70,000

75,000

80,000

85,000

90,000

thou

sand

s Figure 15. Planted and Harvested Acreage of Soybeans

Planted

Harvested Avg. Guess = 85,919 thousand acres Source: Reuters Mar 24, 2015

Soybean Acres Lower Than Trade Guess

Figure 16. March 31 Intentions, U.S. Soybean Acres in 2015

Highlights: (Red States: 60 Mil. Acres 71% of U.S. Total) RECORD: 84.6 Mil. Acres of Soybean Planted in U.S. for 2015 Up 934K Acres from 2014 (+1%)

Figure 17. March 31 Intentions Minus 2014 Planted Acres, Soybeans

Highlights: 21 States With Same of More Beans (1.6 Mil. Acres) 934K Additional Acres Planted in 2015 10 States With Fewer Bean Acres (-707K Acres Total)

2,00

5

25

625

-605

-2,5

82

997

222

-203

-1,8

78

-1,3

73

-2,3

99

925 1,

427

-394

-1,5

63

3,29

6

-286

2,20

8

-3,500

-2,500

-1,500

-500

500

1,500

2,500

3,500

4,500th

ousa

nd a

cres

Figure 18. Actual Planted Acres of Soybeans Minus March Intentions

Actual acreage always differs from March intentions Could we see more soybean acres in 2015 than intentions? (Nov Beans/Dec Corn Ratio = 2.37)

Figure 19. Corn Balance 2014/15 2014/15 WASDE Mar 10 Supply: Planted Acreage (million acres) 90.6 90.6 Harvested Acreage (million acres) 83.1 83.1 Yield (Bushels / Acre) 171.0 171.0 Beginning Stocks (million bushels) 1,232 1,232 Total Production (million bushels) 14,216 14,216 Imports (million bushels) 25 25 Total Supply (million bushels) 15,472 15,472

Consumption: Feed and Residual (million bushels) 5,300 5,300

Food, Seed, and Industrial (million bushels) 6,595 6,595 Ethanol (million bushels) 5,200 5,200 Exports (million bushels) 1,800 1,800 Total Consumption (million bushels) 13,695 13,695

Ending Stocks (million bushels) 1,777 1,777 Ending Stocks/Total Consumption (%) 13.0% 13.0%

Average Price ($/bu.) $3.70 $3.70

6,89

9 7,57

6

6,89

9

7,11

1

6,93

4

9,56

4

7,65

9

7,29

8

6,66

2

7,68

9

7,00

7

7,41

2

6,89

2

6,74

6

7,94

7

9,92

6

7,91

4

7,46

1

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000th

ousa

nd a

cres

Figure 20. Planted Minus Harvested Acres of Corn

y = 1.8112x + 60.526 R² = 0.8857

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

bu. p

er a

c.

Figure 21. U.S. Average Corn Yield--1960-2014

2015 Trend Yield 164.0 bpa

Figure 22. Corn Balance 2014/15 2015/16 Supply: Planted Acreage (million acres) 90.6 89.2 Harvested Acreage (million acres) 83.1 81.7 Yield (Bushels / Acre) 171.0 164.0 Beginning Stocks (million bushels) 1,232 1,777 Total Production (million bushels) 14,216 13,400 Imports (million bushels) 25 20 Total Supply (million bushels) 15,472 15,197

Consumption: Feed and Residual (million bushels) 5,300 5,300

Food, Seed, and Industrial (million bushels) 6,595 6,615 Ethanol (million bushels) 5,200 5,200 Exports (million bushels) 1,800 1,825 Total Consumption (million bushels) 13,695 13,740

Ending Stocks (million bushels) 1,777 1,457 Ending Stocks/Total Consumption (%) 13.0% 10.6%

Average Price ($/bu.) $3.70 $4.25

Figure 23. Soybean Balance 2014/15 2014/15 WASDE Mar 10 Supply: Planted Acreage (mil.) 83.7 83.7 Harvested Acreage (mil.) 83.1 83.1 Yield (bu./ac.) 47.8 47.8 Production (mil. bu.) 3,969 3,969 Beginning stocks (mil. bu.) 92 92 Imports (mil. bu.) 25 25 Total Supply(mil. bu.) 4,086 4,086

Consumption: Crush (mil. bu.) 1,795 1,795 Export (mil. bu.) 1,790 1,790 Seed and Residual (mil. bu.) 116 140 Total Consumption(mil. bu.) 3,701 3,725

Ending stocks (mil. bu.) 385 361

Stocks-to-use 10.4% 9.7%

Average farm price ($/bu.) $10.20 $10.20

895 1,

584

1,28

4 1,85

8

1,10

0

1,46

6

964 1,25

0

781

920

595 1,

037

1,07

9

1,08

8

1,27

0

1,05

4

696

640

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

thou

sand

acr

es

Figure 24. Planted Minus Harvested Acres of Soybeans

y = 0.4027x + 21.812 R² = 0.884

20

25

30

35

40

45

50bu

. per

ac.

Figure 25. U.S. Soybean Yield

2015 Trend Yield 44.6 bpa

Figure 26. Soybean Balance 2014-15 2015-16

Supply:

Planted Acreage (mil.) 83.7 84.6 Harvested Acreage (mil.) 83.1 83.8 Yield (bu./ac.) 47.8 44.8 Production (mil. bu.) Planted Acreage 3,969 3,737 Beginning stocks (mil. bu.) 92 361 Imports (mil. bu.) 25 20 Total Supply (mil. bu.) 4,086 4,118

Consumption:

Crush (mil. bu.) 1,795 1,800 Export (mil. bu.) 1,790 1,800 Seed and feed (mil. bu.) 140 120 Total Consumption(mil. bu.) 3,725 3,720

Ending stocks (mil. bu.) 361 398

Stocks-to-use 9.7% 10.7%

Average farm price ($/bu.) $10.20 $9.75

Closing Comments

• U.S. Farmers intend to plant: – 934K additional soybean acres and 1.4 Mil. fewer corn acres – Soybean below trade / Corn Above Trade

• March 1 Stocks Report Showed: – Corn stocks 136 Mil. bushels above expectations – Implications for feed and residual 4,919 to 5,688

• Balance Sheet Implications – Expect big crops for both corn and soybeans in 2015 – Projection for stocks to build in beans but decline in corn – Good: Higher corn prices and lower bean prices in MY 2015/16

Questions?

Please continue to submit questions during this part of the webinar

Scott Irwin Darrel Good John Newton [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Visit the ‘Downloads’ page at www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/webinars

@New10_AgEcon @farmdocDaily @ScottIrwinUI

The 2015 Spring Webinar Series is sponsored by 1st Farm Credit

http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/webinars

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Corn and Soybean Stocks, Acreage, and Balance Sheet … · 2019-10-07 · Corn and Soybean Stocks, Acreage, and Balance Sheet Implications Scott Irwin, Darrel Good, and John Newton