Upload
ryan-garza
View
215
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
CORE
Environmental Health Sciences
Kim Knowlton, DrPHPost-Doctoral Research Scientist
Email: [email protected]
Public Hearing - NJ Clean Air CouncilApril 11, 2007
Co-Benefits of Energy Efficiency and Conservation:
Improving Air Quality & NJ Health Today,
Climate Change & Global Health Tomorrow
CORE
Environmental Health Sciences
Climate Change and Public Health
EnergyDemand
CORE
Environmental Health Sciences
Climate Change and Public Health
Metro NY City region home to ~8% of US population, including at-risk communities Ozone non-compliance area, summer heat waves Global/regional climate change may compound New York City urban heat island Direct health effects of heat vs. indirect ozone, pollen effects
Newark
JFK
SURFACE TEMPERATURE, Landsat ETM 7Aug 14 2002, 10:30 AM
(source: Geography Dept, Hunter College)
CORE
Environmental Health Sciences
Climate Change and Public Health
Climate change and human health: impacts of heat and ozone
Certain population groups more vulnerable to heat stress and ozone air pollutionRisk factors include:
Age 65+ Pre-existing cardiovascular or
respiratory conditionsLack of air conditioning, city
residence, low socioeconomic status, social isolation
CC
CORE
Environmental Health Sciences
Climate Change and Public Health
Ozone Formation
CC
CORE
Environmental Health Sciences
Climate Change and Public Health
US EPA (1991) in Kleinman and Lipfert (1996) Note threshold~90°F (32°C)
CC
Increase in ozone levels from the 1990s to the 2050s
Bell et al. Climatic Change (2007)
Average Number of 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS Exceedance Days/Summer
Bell et al. Climatic Change (2007)
CORE
Environmental Health Sciences
Climate Change and Public Health
Linking models for global and regional climate, land use and cover, and air quality…
to examine the potential public health impacts of heat and air pollution under alternative scenarios of climate change & regional land use in
the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s in the NYC metropolitan region. Funded by the USEPA STAR Research Program.
CC
The New York Climate & Health Project
What might the future hold in our region?
CORE
Environmental Health Sciences
Climate Change and Public Health
Climate change impacts projected in NYC More frequent, more severe storms in NYC Summer heat-related mortality could nearly double by the 2050s and more than triple by the 2080s Summer ozone-related mortality will increase both inside the five boroughs and beyond city limits
CC
CORE
Environmental Health Sciences
Climate Change and Public Health
Climate-Related Mortality, Current vs. Future Model Simulations
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1990s 2020s A2 2050s A2 2080s A2Decade
Att
rib
ute
d D
eath
s
summerheat-relatedmortality
summerozone-relatedmortality
Results: Summer heat & O3 mortality risk assessment
CC
CORE
Environmental Health Sciences
Climate Change and Public Health
Immediate Local “Co-Benefits”: Reductions in Ozone- and Particulate Matter-Related Health Impacts
CC
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Mortality effects Infant mortality Chronicbronchitis
Hospitalrespiratoryadmissions
Emergencyroom visits
Asthma attacks Acute bronchitis Work loss days Restrictedactivity days
Health effects avoided from 2000 to 2020 in New York City due to ozone & particulate matter reductions if GHG mitigation measures are taken (Cifuentes et al. EHP 2001)
Beggs & Bambrick Environ Health Perspect (2005)
• Under increased CO2 & temperature conditions, increased ragweed plant biomass, growth rate, pollen production (Ziska et al. J Allergy Clin Immunol 2003)
• CO2 concentrations in NYC 37% higher than rural sites (Knowlton et al., unpublished data)
• Possible local effects of emissions on local health?
CORE
Environmental Health Sciences
Climate Change and Public Health
Mitigation Adaptation
What can we do about it?
Energy efficiency & conservation Reducing other greenhouse gases from industry, agriculture, waste management thru voluntary measures & government regulation Rely more on renewable energy sources (wind, solar, etc.) Decarbonisation - CO2 removal and storage Biological carbon sequestration
CC
Heat-health alert systems Air conditioning distribution Water resource and shoreline management Wetlands restoration Storm evacuation planning Disaster preparedness planning Revise corporate & business plansImprove community resiliency