Copyright © 2013 Curt Hill Creating the To-Be Architecture Using the crystal ball

Copyright © 2013 Curt Hill

Creating the To-Be Architecture

Using the crystal ball

Introduction• The real problem is there is no crystal ball

• Meteorologists get paid to predict the weather– They are often close, but seldom dead-

on accurate– They are supported by extensive

observational and predictive computer systems, which cost millions

• If this is hard, how much more so is what the business environment will be like in five years?


Probability• In dealing with the future there are

an infinite number of potential futures– This is unwieldy, so we must limit

• Most of these potential futures are of very low likelihood– These we do not consider

• If a potential future has no proper reaction we may also dismiss

• Thus, we focus on small number of likely changes


Probability again• Where can the changes come

from?– External factors– Internal initiatives

• We must weigh the likelihood of each external change

• Initiatives only need consideration if they appear to have sufficient executive backing to be implemented


CONOPS• CONcept of OPeration Scenarios• This kind of scenario is a guess at

what could happen and how it would affect the enterprise

• Military planning tool that also works for business

• At its simplest it is a story of “what if”


Developing• Several things need to go into a

CONOPS• Start with the SWOT

– Focus on threats and opportunities• Develop a scenario

– Tells a story of how the enterprise would function in the near future

• Develop multiple versions– Short for quick sharing– Long for giving guidance for planning


Exercise• Lets do something different and

read the case study in the text– Pp. ~162-163

• Were any planning assumptions left out?

• What is it that we do not see?


Why Scenarios I?• Imagine multiple futures based on

optimistic and pessimistic projections

• Develops strategic thinking and learning

• Opens conversations in enterprise strategy

• Challenge or dispel assumptions about the official future


Why Scenarios II?• Inspire leadership for new

initiatives or direction• Create options for decision making;• Create a shared vision of the future

to influence organizational and individual thinking

• Open communications channels that transcends organizational boundaries, time and space.


Scenario Hints I• Involve both senior leadership and

front-line staff • Evaluate ideas on their merits not

their source. – Use group techniques or groupware to

promote creativity and non-linear thinking

– How does culture affect this?• Use communities of practice that

span multiple functions to create scenarios.


Hints II• Scenarios should address specific

business value propositions– Such as knowledge re-use, innovation,

customer intimacy. – Scenarios should be outcome oriented.

• Try to tie together human, process, and technology dimensions to show the potential future state– Relate the initiative to complementary

organizational initiatives• Keep scenarios short

– One to two pages maximum


Hints III• Widely broadcast the scenarios

– Allow employees, strategic partners and stakeholders a voice

• Give credit to those who develop scenarios

• Scenario development is the start of a continuous process– Must be frequently revisited.


Future EA• There are a limited number of

scenarios that may be considered – If too many they will be ignored– Three at minimum: offensive, status quo,

defensive• The next step is to update artifacts• There needs to be a clear separation

between current and future– An update to the strategic plan might be

considered insubordination– We also do not want people to plan using

a future that will not existCopyright © 2013 Curt Hill

Version Control• Once the team has established the

current EA, it spends much of its time on the future

• The eventuality that needs to be avoided is that the future EA is updated daily

• Updates should come out no more often than twice a year– Update the entire scenario and its

consequences all at onceCopyright © 2013 Curt Hill

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Copyright © 2013 Curt Hill Creating the To-Be Architecture Using the crystal ball