Copyright © 2012 Pearson Canada Inc.10 -1 Chapter 10 Risk Assessment

Copyright © 2012 Pearson Canada Inc. 10 -1

Chapter 10

Risk Assessment


Learning Objectives

• Define the components of risk assessment

• List what role risk assessment play in Canada

• Describe the types of correct and incorrect risk predictions

• Differentiate among static, stable, and acute dynamic risk factors


Learning Objectives

• Describe unstructured clinical judgment, actuarial prediction, and structured professional judgment

• List the four major types of risk factors


What is Risk Assessment?

• Risk is viewed as a range (Steadman, 2000)– Probabilities change across time– Interaction among offender

characteristics and situation• Risk assessment has 2 components:

– Prediction– Management


Risk Assessments: Civil Settings

• Civil commitment

• Child protection

• Immigration laws

• School and labour regulations

• Duty to warn

• Limits of confidentiality


Risk Assessments: Criminal Settings

• Risk assessments conducted at major decision points:– Pretrial– Sentencing– Release

• Public safety outweighs solicitor-client privilege (Smith v. Jones, 1999)


Types of Prediction Outcomes

• True Positive • True Negative• False Positive • False Negative

– Two types of errors are dependent on each other

– Each outcome has different consequences for offender or society


Predictions: Decisions Versus Outcomes

DECISIONReoffends Does not

reoffend

Predicted to reoffend

True positive

(correct)

False positive

(incorrect)

Predicted to not reoffend

False negative

(incorrect)

True negative (correct)

OUTCOME


History of Risk Assessment

• 1960’s– Baxstrom v. Herald (1966)– Dixon v. Attorney General of the

Commonwealth of Pennsylvania (1971)

• Baxstrom and Dixon studies– Base rate for violence low– False positive rate high


Base Rates

• Represents the % of people within a given population who commit a criminal or violent act– Prediction difficult when base rates are

too high or low– False positives tend to occur with low

base rates• Easier to predict frequent vs. infrequent

events


Methodological Issues

• Assumptions of risk assessment and measurement– Ideal evaluation vs. reality

• Three weaknesses of research (Monahan & Steadman, 1994):– Limited number of risk factors– How criterion variable is measured– How criterion variable is defined


Judgment Error and Biases

• Heuristics

• Illusory correlation

• Ignore base rates

• Reliance on salient or unique cues

• Overconfidence in judgements


Unstructured Clinical Judgment

• Decisions characterized by professional discretion and lack of guidelines

• Subjective

• No specific risk factors

• No rules about how risk decisions should be made


Dr. James Grigson

• Nicknamed “Dr. Death” or “the hanging shrink”

• Forensic psychiatrist in Dallas– Used unstructured clinical judgment– Expelled from professional association

for claims of 100% accuracy in predicting violence


Actuarial Prediction

• Decisions based on risk factors that are selected and combined based on empirical or statistical evidence

• Most actuarial risk instruments include only static risk factors

• Evidence favours actuarial assessments over unstructured clinical judgment


Structured Professional Judgment

• Decisions guided by predetermined list of risk factors derived from research literature

• Judgment of risk level is based on professional judgement

• Diverse group of professionals


Risk Factor: Definition

• Risk Factor – measurable feature of an individual that predicts the behaviour of interest (e.g., criminal behaviour or violence)


Types of Predictors

• Static Risk Factors– Historical– Factors that cannot be changed

• Dynamic Risk Factors – Fluctuate over time– Factors that can be changed– Acute vs. stable dynamic risk factors


Important Risk Factors

• Dispositional

• Historical

• Clinical

• Contextual


Dispositional Risk Factors

• Demographics– Age– Gender

• Personality characteristics– Impulsivity– Psychopathy


Historical Risk Factors

• Past antisocial behaviour

• Age of onset of antisocial behaviour

• Childhood history of maltreatment

• Past supervision failure, escape, or institution maladjustment


Clinical Risk Factors

• Substance use

• Mental disorder– Diagnosis of schizophrenia or affective

disorders– “Threat/control override” (TCO)

symptoms


Contextual Risk Factors

• Lack of social support to help individual in his or her day-to-day life

• Easy access to weapons

• Easy access to victims


Risk Assessment Instruments

• Actuarial Instruments– Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG;

Harris et al., 1993)– Static-99(Hanson & Thornton, 1999)


Risk Assessment Instruments (continued)

• Structured Professional Judgment Instruments– HCR-20 (Webster et al., 1997)– Violence Risk Scale (VRS; Wong &

Gordon, 2006)– Spousal Assault Risk Assessment

(SARA; Kropp et al., 1999)


Current Issues

• Where is the theory?– More attention on WHY is needed

• Protective factors– Factors that reduce or mitigate the

likelihood of violence

• Limitations of risk assessments

• Use of scientific research– Practitioners not using instruments


Coping-Relapse Model of Criminal Recidivism (Figure 10.1; Zamble &

Quinsey, 1997)

Precipitating Event

Cognitive & Emotional Appraisal

Response MechanismIndividual Influences

Criminal Behaviour


Female Offenders and Crime

• Gender differences in criminality

– Women engage in less crime

– Women reoffend at lower rates

– Childhood victimization more prevalent

– Mental disorders more prevalent


Female Offenders and Risk

• More similarities in risk factors for men and women than differences

• Gender-specific risk factors– History of self-injury– Poor self-esteem

• How well do risk assessment instruments developed with male offenders work with female offenders?– LSI-R has predictive validity


Desistance From Crime

• Desistance: process of ceasing to engage in criminal behaviour

• Little research on why offenders stop committing crime

• Factors relating to desistance:– Age– Employment– Marital relationships

Documents

Copyright © 2012 Pearson Canada Inc.10 -1 Chapter 10 Risk Assessment