Copyright © 2004 by Nelson, a division of Thomson Canada Limited. 1 Chapter17 Population, Aging, and Health by Roderic Beaujot

Copyright © 2004 by Nelson, a division of Thomson Canada Limited.

1

ChapterChapter 1717 Population, Population, Aging, and HealthAging, and Health

by Roderic Beaujotby Roderic Beaujot

2 Copyright © 2004 by Nelson, a division of Thomson Canada Limited.

• The main population processes are fertility (concerning births), migration (concerning population movements), and mortality (concerning deaths).

• Population policies try to:

• influence demographic events, and

• ensure that society accommodates population change.

• Population processes can be analyzed as causes or consequences of other social processes.

THE STUDY OF POPULATIONTHE STUDY OF POPULATION


PROCESSES AND STATESPROCESSES AND STATES• Demography studies:

• the population stock or state (its size, distribution, and composition) at a given time, and

• population processes or flow (changes in population as a function of births, deaths, migration, etc.).

• The stock and flow of population are interrelated. • For example: P2 = P1 + B – D + I – E


A BASIC MODEL OF A BASIC MODEL OF POPULATION DYNAMICSPOPULATION DYNAMICS

Population Population at Time 2at Time 2


DeathsDeathsDeathsDeaths



ImmigrationImmigrationImmigrationImmigration

EmigrationEmigrationEmigrationEmigration

BirthsBirthsBirthsBirths


• 12,000 years ago, before the Agricultural Revolution, world population was 5–10 million. Now it is about 6 billion.

• The European population grew from 1750–1950 due to better nutrition, sanitation, and medicine but has since stabilized.

• In 1950 the period of Third World expansion began for similar reasons. It will probably continue for several decades into the 21st century.

WORLD POPULATION WORLD POPULATION GROWTH IGROWTH I


• Because of inequalities between rich and poor nations, contrasting demographic trends can become explosive.

• UN conferences on population growth have centred around these issues:

• environmental hazards of population growth;• violation of civil rights through coercive

family planning;• massive international migration; and• abortion.

WORLD POPULATION WORLD POPULATION GROWTH IIGROWTH II


WORLD POPULATIONWORLD POPULATION


POPULATION AGE PYRAMIDS, POPULATION AGE PYRAMIDS, DEVELOPED AND LESS-DEVELOPED AND LESS-DEVELOPED COUNTRIESDEVELOPED COUNTRIES


THEORETICAL THEORETICAL PERSPECTIVES: MALTHUS IPERSPECTIVES: MALTHUS IMalthus argued that:

• populations naturally grow at a rate that exceeds the available food supply; and

• populations can survive only because of: • “positive” checks on population growth,

including mortality due to famines, epidemics, wars, and natural causes.

• “preventive” checks, including “moral restraint” (abstinence) and “vice” (contraception).


• Neo-Malthusians today focus more on the health and mortality consequences of a changing environment.

• For example, Ehrlich and Ehrlich argue that the impact on the environment is a function of population size, level of affluence, and technology.

THEORETICAL THEORETICAL PERSPECTIVES: MALTHUS IIPERSPECTIVES: MALTHUS II


• In Marx’s view, population growth is closely linked to the mode of production and its level of development.

• He argued that there are too many poor people due to capitalist exploitation. Proper economic and social arrangements could accommodate population growth, he said.

• The Malthus-Marx debate – whether population size is a result of socioeconomic conditions or natural limitations – still rages.

THEORETICAL THEORETICAL PERSPECTIVES: MARXPERSPECTIVES: MARX


• The human ecology approach examines the consequences of the dynamic interplay of population, organization, environment, and technology.

• Each factor influences the others.

• For example, urbanization is seen as involving a new way of organizing human settlement that permitted considerable population growth.

THEORETICAL THEORETICAL PERSPECTIVES: HUMAN PERSPECTIVES: HUMAN ECOLOGYECOLOGY


HUMAN ECOLOGYHUMAN ECOLOGY


THE DEMOGRAPHIC THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITIONTRANSITION


The theory of demographic transition distinguishes three stages:

1. birth rates and death rates were high so population size was stable;

2. death rates declined faster than fertility rates due to improved sanitation and nutrition so population size increased quickly; and

3. birth rates fell due to industrialization and changing attitudes toward the ideal family size so population size stabilized again.

THEORETICAL PERSPECTIVES: THEORETICAL PERSPECTIVES: DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEORY ITHEORY I


There are several debates regarding this model:• Scholars do not agree whether the causes of

fertility decline are economic or cultural.• Others argue that many rich countries have

advanced to a fourth stage characterized by more deaths than births.

THEORETICAL PERSPECTIVES: THEORETICAL PERSPECTIVES: DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEORY IITHEORY II


• mortality and health

• fertility

• immigration

• emigration

COMPONENTS OF COMPONENTS OF POPULATION POPULATION CHANGE IN CANADACHANGE IN CANADA


MORTALITY MORTALITY • In 1867, life expectancy in Canada was 42

years. • By 1999 it had risen to 76.3 for men and 81.7

for women.• Improvement was largely due to improved

nutrition and the control of infectious diseases, which dramatically lowered infant mortality rates.

• Now most deaths are due to degenerative conditions, occurring at an even older age (e.g., cancer, heart disease).


THE EPIDEMIOLOGICAL THE EPIDEMIOLOGICAL TRANSITION TRANSITION The four stages of the epidemiological transition are:

• the predominance of pestilence;

• the decline of infectious diseases;

• the rise of degenerative diseases; and

• the delay of degenerative diseases and

the rise of “hubristic” behaviour (smoking,

reckless driving, unprotected sex).


Fertility levels declined from 7 births per woman in the 1850s to under 2 by the 1980s.

• Cohort completed fertility is the average number of births for women of a given age who have completed childbearing.

• The total fertility rate takes the rates of childbearing women at various ages in a given year and adds them up. It assumes that women who have not yet completed childbearing will have as many children as those who have.

• Replacement fertility is the average number of children needed to replace one generation by the next (2.1 children per woman).

FERTILITY I FERTILITY I


• The proximate causes of lower fertility in Canada include proportionately fewer long-term relationships and marriages, and proportionately more divorces, cohabitation, and use of contraception.

• Micro causes include the value and cost of children in both economic and cultural terms.

• Macro causes, such as the changing role of men and women in their work and social life, affect the structure of production and reproduction.

FERTILITY II FERTILITY II


PERIOD TOTAL FERTILITY PERIOD TOTAL FERTILITY RATE, CANADA, 1871–2001RATE, CANADA, 1871–2001


• During the depressed economic period 1867-1896, more Canadians emigrated than immigrated.

• During the boom years 1896-1913, more people immigrated to Canada than emigrated from it.

• During the era of the World Wars ands the Great Depression, both immigration and emigration fell.

• The period 1946-89 was a major immigration wave although the government restricted immigration during the 1980s.

• The immigration wave grew in the 1990s and accounted for half of Canada’s population growth.

IMMIGRATION IIMMIGRATION I


• In 1962, race as a criterion for immigrant selection was removed and the composition of immigration changed radically.

• Between 1946 and 1967, 75% of immigrants came from Europe or the United States.

• Between 1976 and 1996, 80% of immigrants came from Asia, Latin America, and Africa.

• 75% of 1991-95 immigrants were members of visible minorities.

IMMIGRATION IIIMMIGRATION II


• The impact of immigration on the economy is small but positive. Initial costs of settlement are offset by high productivity.

• However, 1990s immigrants from less-developed countries may not do as well as previous cohorts, mainly because of the decreasing value in a service economy of educational credential obtained abroad.

IMMIGRATION IIIIMMIGRATION III


• Two visions of the future of immigration in Canada have emerged:

• the idea that Canada should be built up by additional immigration, and

• the idea that Canada should be a fortress against intrusion from immigrants.

• Migration pressure will continue to increase at the global level.

IMMIGRATION IVIMMIGRATION IV


CANADIAN IMMIGRATION AND CANADIAN IMMIGRATION AND EMIGRATION, 1900–2001EMIGRATION, 1900–2001


• Three major trends set the parameters for today’s demographic situation:

• low fertility;

• low population growth; and

• population aging.

• Projections indicate that population growth may come to a virtual standstill by 2050 at 34-43 million, with immigration becoming the only source of growth after 2025.

CANADIAN POPULATION CANADIAN POPULATION CHANGECHANGE

AGE AGE PYRAMIDS PYRAMIDS OF THE OF THE POPULATION POPULATION

OF CANADA,OF CANADA,1951, 1978, 1951, 1978, 2991, 20362991, 2036

Insert Figure 17.6, p. 455



POPULATION AGING IPOPULATION AGING I

• In 1951, Canada’s age distribution was shaped like a pyramid (many young people and few elderly people).

• By 2036 it will be shaped like an inverted vase (about the same number of people in all cohorts except the oldest, which will be smaller).


We now find ourselves in the third phase of aging:

• 1875–1960: slow aging (relatively fewer births but more young survivors).

• 1961–1975: aging at the bottom (relatively fewer births and young people).

• 1976–present: aging at the top (lower mortality of adults).

POPULATION AGING IIPOPULATION AGING II


As the percentage of elderly people increases:

• the cost of health care and pensions increase, with potential hazards to benefits;

• the cost of education may decrease; and

• there will possibly be less unemployment but also lower productivity.

POPULATION AGING IIIPOPULATION AGING III


• The areas of high population and growth are:• southern Ontario• greater Montreal• British Columbia’s lower mainland• the Calgary-Edmonton corridor

• The populations of these areas grew 4% from 1996-2001 while provinces that did not include one of these areas either declined in size or grew by less than 1%.

• This growth pattern is due largely to immigration patterns.

GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTIONGEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION


POPULATION GROWTH, 1951–POPULATION GROWTH, 1951–2001, CANADA AND THE 2001, CANADA AND THE PROVINCESPROVINCES


EXPENDITURES PER CAPITA EXPENDITURES PER CAPITA ON HEALTH, EDUCATION, AND ON HEALTH, EDUCATION, AND SOCIAL SECURITYSOCIAL SECURITY


HEALTH STATUS AND HEALTH STATUS AND POPULATIONPOPULATION• Longer life often means more years of poor health.

• 55% of Canadians aged 15 and over reported a chronic health problem in 1994.

• It is estimated that health adjusted life expectancy is eight years less than total life expectancy in Canada.

• The present and future health status of young Canadians is partly a function of risk behaviours associated with smoking, drinking, and sex.


RISK BEHAVIOUR OF RISK BEHAVIOUR OF ADOLESCENTS AND YOUNG ADOLESCENTS AND YOUNG ADULTS, CANADA, 1994–1995ADULTS, CANADA, 1994–1995


SUPPLEMENTARY SLIDESSUPPLEMENTARY SLIDES

FERTILITY HAS BEEN THE MAIN FERTILITY HAS BEEN THE MAIN DETERMINANT OF POPULATION DETERMINANT OF POPULATION GROWTH GROWTH

Population growth rate, Canada

1951

-52

1956

-57

1961

-62

1966

-67

1971

-72

1976

-77

1981

-82

1986

-87

1991

-92

1997

-98

0

1

2

3

4%

0

1

2

3

4

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

1997

0

1

2

3

4

5Births per woman

0

1

2

3

4

5

Total fertility rate, Canada

Replacement level (2.1 births per woman)


IMMIGRATION IS AN INCREASINGLY IMMIGRATION IS AN INCREASINGLY IMPORTANT DETERMINANT OF POPULATION IMPORTANT DETERMINANT OF POPULATION GROWTHGROWTH

1972

-73

1984

-85

1997

-98

2010

-11

2020

-21

2030

-31

2040

-41

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

-100

-200

-300

Thousands

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

-100

-200

-300

Estimates

Projected

Natural Increase

Net Migration

Growth

1972

-73

1984

-85

1997

-98

2010

-11

2020

-21

2030

-31

2040

-41

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

-100

-200

-300

Thousands

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

-100

-200

-300

Medium Growth Assumption High : TFR = 1.8, Immigration = 270,000 Medium : TFR = 1.5, Immigration = 210,000 Low : TFR = 1.3, Immigration = 150,000

EstimatesProjected

Growth

High

Medium

Low


FUTURE POPULATION GROWTH WILL BE FUTURE POPULATION GROWTH WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN OLDER AGE COHORTS CONCENTRATED IN OLDER AGE COHORTS

Population projections for Canada, Ratio 2026/1999

1921

1931

1941

1951

1961

1971

1981

1991

2001

2011

2021

2026

0

20

40

60

80per 100

Estimated Medium Projection

Total

0-14

65+

Ratio of children and seniors to population aged 15-64, Canada

0 - 4

5 - 9

10 -

14

15 -

19

20 -

24

25 -2

9

30 -

34

35 -

39

40 -

44

45 -

49

50 -

54

55 -

59

60 -

64

65- 6

9

70 -

74

75 -

79

80 -

84

85 -

89 90

+0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5Ratio


BY 2026 MORE THAN ONE IN FIVE BY 2026 MORE THAN ONE IN FIVE CANADIANS WILL BE 65 OR OVERCANADIANS WILL BE 65 OR OVER

1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1996 2011 2021 2031 20410

5

10

15

20

25%

0

5

10

15

20

25

Medium Projection

Percentage of population, 65 and over, selected countries, mid-1990's

Sweden

United Kingdom

Germany

France

Japan

United States

Canada

Australia

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20%


DISABILITY RATES ARE SIMILAR FOR MEN AND DISABILITY RATES ARE SIMILAR FOR MEN AND WOMEN BUT WOMEN HAVE MORE SEVERE WOMEN BUT WOMEN HAVE MORE SEVERE DISABILITIESDISABILITIES

< 15 15-34 35-54 55-64 65-74

75-84 85 + Total

Males Females

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Rates by Age %

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100%

Ages

Distribution by severity

Mild SevereModerate


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Copyright © 2004 by Nelson, a division of Thomson Canada Limited. 1 Chapter17 Population, Aging, and Health by Roderic Beaujot