Strategic Area Energy

Laetitia Ouillet

Energydays, 28/03/2019

Market or governmental intervention: which topics remainunsolved in the climate agreement

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Climate agreement: What was his plan?

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Let’s summarise it down to two graphs

Bron: eRisk Group, using PPSGen

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What will happen to energy supply?

Bron: eRisk Group, using PPSGen

• Wind offshore grows from 1-14GW in 12 years (NL). UK hopes to have reached this capacity level in 2022 already.

• Solar and onshore wind will be regional discussion (what’s a region?)

• On-roof solar spinning out of (their) control

• No subsidy. TUe do n

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Offshore wind

• The Netherlands has great ambitions

• But the market is more than that: position Germany and the UK

• Some perspective on a subsidy stop

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No subsidy: but why?TUe do n

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On-roof solar

• Not possible to steer, although one thinks one can

• Different business case, no rational economic discussion

• Planning of regional network operators• Capacity connection value: where is the

menu?

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Existing production park• Coal plants: 4,6 GW (minus 680MW)• Conversion:yes/no/who pays?• Arbaheat (TNO, Engie). Combining

hydrogen to reduce the value loss (hydrogen cofiring 15-20%)

• Who is negotiating with whom? Kolenwet

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Security of supply• The Belgian case• Hinckley point: Nuclear is cheap? (92,5

GBP/MWh: 2x last tender price offshore wind NL (47 EUR/MWh)

• Nederlandse laissez-faire, with a strong role/room for the opinion and vision of TenneT

• Role NL as export-country difficult to combine with CO2 reduction ambitions

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The Netherlands: Island or new energy hub?

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Denmark0,7 GW in 2030

Norway0,7 GW in 2030

Germany5,0 GW in 2030

Belgium3,8 GW in 2030

United Kingdom1,0 GW in 2030

GasElectricityHeat

NL energiehub

LNG (Gate terminal) 12 bn m3

Russia (Nord Stream) 55 bn

m3

United Kingdom (BBL)

9 bn m3

Norway 20 bn m3

Zuid Wending Storage 0,8 bn m3

Renewable electricity

Renewable fuels

Renewable Chemical

Renewable heat

Heat roundaboutHeat storage

Gas roundaboutElectricity hub

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Permit request energy islandDoggersbank

or

Permit request for a new CCGT in the Eemshaven

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And how about energy demand?

Bron: eRisk Group, using PPSGen

• Electrification of high temperature heat• Electrical boilers within the industry• Heat pumps for households• Green gas, and all other names they call

it• Electrical cars

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Industrial heat• The transition that never will happen?• E-boilers: @ crossroad between two

negotiation tables• Large-scale flexibility supply: not the

intended (primary) function. And who’s in charge?

• Industry does not foresee a role for themselves on the energy market. Prosumer?

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Heat pumps next generation• Innovation versus lobby• Also available without noise, efficient

and with temperatures of 65+ • Large markets: NL, UK, Japan and

Scandinavia• Role regarding the developmet of

demand• Financing constructions• And regulatory settings

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Electric vehicles• Two pathways: Is that efficient?• Waterstof auto, nieuwe vormen van

brandstoffen (afval, bio enz)• Costs of batteries• Toyota is the kodak of the car industry

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Hydrogen• Ambition vs science• Double, triple, quadruple counting• Demand/supply game• Qualitative discussion• Infrastructure development: Market?

Network operator? Both?

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Flexibility development

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Comparing apples with pears

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MW

MWh

Ramp speed

1 2 3

very low low medium very highhigh

Conventional power plants, cross border capacity

Hydro, pump storage, Power to Heat, Demand Side Response (e.g. electric mobility, heat pumps)

New fuels produced by abundant renewable power, demand shifting through heat storage or heat / cold storage

1. Conventional solutions

2. New technologies and innovativeapplications of existing technologies

3. Seasonal flexibilityTUe d

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Dilemma business case flexibility

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DEM

AND

FOR

FLEX

IBIL

ITY

(MW

)

- Growth eCars, Heat Pumps,

- Storage technologies and smart grids not yet developed

- Batteries and demand response Batteries and demand response become successful and manage all demand for flex

- Further growth of solar PV and win generation (by 2030 expected to be 4-5 times average peak demand)

- Need for new flexibility technologies

- New technologies (especially NextGen) finally solve the flexibility issues

YEARS

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Topsport approach

Jongens Minioren 6 Jongens Junioren 4 Jongens Jeugd 2 Heren Senioren 2 Heren All In

01:08,37

00:55,57

00:54,42

00:53,59

00:53,37

Bron: KNZB Meerjaren Selectie Systeem 2017Samenvatting van vereiste MSS-tijden voor 100 meter vlinderslagTijden in een 50 meter-bad

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