Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Outlook on Renewable Energy (and reducing GHG emissions). Woudschoten Conferentie

Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management

Outlook on Renewable Energy (and reducing GHG emissions).

Woudschoten Conferentie Chemistry2chemistry, Zeist, 2nd November 2012

André FaaijCopernicus Institute – Utrecht University

Head of Unit Energy & ResourcesTask Leader IEA Bioenergy Task 40, CLA Bioenergy IPCC - SRREN


Houston we have a problem!

• Peak oil• Peak soil• Peak water• Peak biodiversity

loss• Peak population• Peak GDP

• Climate• Agriculture• Energy• Biodiversity• Poverty &

development

And it is urgent!


Global population projections(stabilization at about 9 billion in

GEA)

1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Worl

d p

opu

lati

on

(bill

ion)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Pop

ula

tion

(b

illio

n)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18GEA IndustrializedGEA Developing

[GEA, 2012]


Economic development projections(developing countries avg. 3.5%/yr;

developed countries 1.2%/yr)

1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Worl

d G

DP (

trill

ion U

S$ 2

00

5)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

GD

P (

trill

ion

US

$ 2

00

5)

0

100

200

300

400

500GEA IndustrializedGEA Developing

[GEA, 2012]


Transport…

0

200

400

600

800

0 10000 20000 30000

CA

mexico

belgium

denmark

italy

蘭

spain

sweden

Aus NZ

swiss

Jp

US

uk

Germany

仏

Taiwan Korea

china

india

GDP per capita(US$)

Vehicle ownership/1000 persons

Can result in 2 billion passenger cars in 2050Tripling compared to 2000


The current global energy system

is dominated by fossil fuels.


Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels (IEA base

scenario; 2030)

[Source: IEA]

0

4000

8000

12000

16000

20000

power industry transport residential +services

othersectors

CO

2 em

issi

on

s (M

t/yr)

2030

2002


More carbon in underground than the atmosphere (and oceans) can

swallow.


GHG emissions vs. global temperature…; little

disagreement about the impact of a 6 oC change..

[IPCC-SRREN, 2012]


Grenzen aan de groei…?

[Meadows]


Nervous markets

…


What to do?

Despair or ….Do somethingUse your climate toolkit



The BLUE Map Scenario – Towards a low-carbon energy sector

Baseline Scenario – business-as-usual; no adoption of new energy and climate policies

BLUE Map Scenario - energy-related CO2-emissions halved by 2050 through CO2-price and strong support policies Serves as basis for all IEA Technology Roadmaps 23% of global emission savings occur in the transport sector


Historical Development of Global Primary Energy Supply from RE(1971 – 2007).

[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]



Global RE supply by source in Annex I (ANI) and Non-Annex I (NAI)

countries in 164 long-term scenarios (2030 and 2050).

Thick black line = median,Coloured box = 25th-75th percentile,Whiskers = total range across all reviewed scenarios.

[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]


Global primary energy supply of biomass in 164 long-term scenarios in

2020, 2030 and 2050, grouped by different categories of atmospheric

CO2 concentration level in 2100

[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]


Costs available RE technologies vs. fossil

energy costs.

[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]



RE costs have declined in the past and further

declinescan be expected in the

future.

[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]


‘Learning investments’ – the cost of learning

Source: IEA, 2000


Generic capital cost trend for early commercial units of a new power plant technology

Source: EPRI

Cap

ital C

ost

/ U

nit

of C

apac

ity

(co

nsta

nt c

urre

ncy)

Time

First commercial service

Second plant in service

3rd plant

4th plant 5th plant

Estimate Actual

Mature plant costs

Simplified cost estimate with incomplete data

Development period cost estimates

Available for commercial order

Preconstruction and licencing period

Finalized cost estimate

Design / construction period


Technical Advancements: growth in size of commercial

wind turbines.


CSP seen as driver for economic

development…


Experience curve for primary forest fuels in Sweden and Finland (1975

and 2003).

Sou

rce:

Jun

ging

er F

aaij

et a

l., 2

005


Experience curve for the average and marginal production cost of electricity

from Swedish biofuelled CHP plants from

1990-2002

Cumulative electricity production (MWh)

1 10 100 1000 10000

Ele

ctric

ity p

rodu

ctio

n co

sts

(Eur

o(20

02)/

kWh)

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

0.1

0.11

0.12

Average electricity production costs Marginal electricity production costs

PR = 92% R2 = 0.88

PR = 91% R2 = 0.85

1990

1991

1992 1993

1994

1995

2002

1997

1999

Sou

rce:

Jun

ging

er,

Faa

ij et

al.,

200

5


Estimated future costs of sugarcane and ethanol

production assuming 8% annual growth

Cumulative sugarcane production [106 TC]1000 2000 4000 8000 16000 32000P

rodu

ctio

n co

sts

suga

rcan

e [U

S$/

tonn

e] a

nd e

than

ol [

US

$/m

3]

10

20

40

200

400

800

10 20 40 80 160 320 640 1280

SugarcaneEthanol prod. cost (excl. feedstock)Expected range of cane prod. costs in 2020Expected range of ethanol prod. costs in 2020

PR = 0.68 + 0.03

PR = 0.81 + 0.02

2020

2020

Cumulative ethanol production [106 m3]

Explaining the experience curve: Cost reductions of Brazilian ethanol from sugarcaneJ.D. van den Wall Bake, M. Junginger, A. Faaij, T.Poot, A. da Silva WalterBiomass & Bioenergy, 2008


And such opportunities can be found in most

sectors…

[Martin Weiss et al., 2010]


Key factors biomass potentials

Issue/effect Importance Impact on biomass potentials

Supply potential of biomass

supply as estimated in recent studies

Improvement agricultural management *** Choice of crops *** Food demands and human diet *** Use of degraded land *** Competition for water *** Use of agricultural/forestry by-products ** Protected area expansion ** Water use efficiency ** Climate change ** Alternative protein chains ** Demand for biomaterials *

Demand potential of biomass

demand as estimated in recent studies

Bio-energy demand versus supply ** Cost of biomass supply ** Learning in energy conversion ** Market mechanism food-feed-fuel **

Dornburg et al., Energy & Environmental Science 2010


2050 Bioenergy Potentials & Deployment Levels

2008 Global Energy Total

Chapter 2 Possible

DeploymentLevels

2011 IPCCReview*

Land Use3

and 5million

km2

Chapter 10Modelled

DeploymentLevels for CO2 Concentration

Targets

Past LiteratureRange ofTechnicalPotentials0-1500 EJ

Glo

bal P

rimar

y En

ergy

Sup

ply,

EJ/

y

2008 Global Biomass Energy

2050 GlobalEnergyAR4, 2007

2050 Global Biomass

AR4,2007

<440 ppm

440-600 ppmTechnical

Potential

2050 Projections

Minimum

median75th

Maximum

100

300

150190

80

265300

Technical PotentialBased on 2008

Model and LiteratureAssessment

118

20 25

25th

Percentile

2000 Total Biomass Harvest for Food/Fodder/Fiberas Energy Content

[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]


Projected production costs estimated for selected

developing technologies

[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]


IEA Biofuel Roadmap: Vision

Global biofuel supply grows from 2.5 EJ today to 32 EJ in 2050 Biofuels share in total transport fuel increases from 2% today, to

27% in 2050 Diesel/kerosene-type biofuels key to decarbonise heavy transport modes

Large-scale deployment of advanced biofuels vital to meet the roadmap targets

Fina

l ene

rgy

(EJ)


Biofuel Production Costs 2010-50

• Most conventional biofuels still have some potential for cost improvements

• Advanced biofuels reach cost parity around 2030 in an optimistic case

Production costs shown as untaxed retail price


[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

Driving forces, dimensions, scales…

Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management Source: Statoil


Conceptual CO2 transport configurations

National CO2network

Regional CO2 network & dedicated lines

Use existing gas production lines >2020

Trunk line to large UK offshore gas

fields

Trunk line to oil fields + aquifers in offshore UK/Norway region

National CO2network

Regional CO2 network & dedicated lines

Use existing gas production lines >2020

Trunk line to large UK offshore gas

fields

Trunk line to oil fields + aquifers in offshore UK/Norway region

Damen et al., 2008


CO2 avoidance costs for electricity production (ref:

identical technology without CCS).

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

PC IGCC NGCC PC adv IGCCadv

IG-water IG-SOFC-

GT

NGCCadv

MR-CC CLC AZEP SOFC-GT

CO

2 m

itiga

tion

cost

s (€

/t C

O2)

State-of-the-art Advanced

Coal Gas

Damen et al., 2007


Prepared Feedstock

ASU

GasifierGas

Cleanup

Power production

FT-liquids production

H2

production

AGR

MeOH production

Urea production

CO2

compressionClaus/SCOT

FT-fuels

MeOH

Urea

Liquid S

H2

O2

O2

N2

CO2

CO2H2S

S-compounds

Sour WGS

SweetWGS

An ultimate energ transition machine: flex-fuel

IG/synfuel/power +CCS

Major investments in China.- No oil for transport!- 50 % biomass + CCS = net 0 CO2 emission.

About 50%of carbon!

[Meerman et al., RSER 2011 & 2012]


What are we waiting for?Yueyang Sinopec-ShellCoal gasification project; (China)

Shell gasifier arrivingat site September 2006.

15 licences in China at present…

Courtesy of Shell


GHG emissions per km driven

[Van Vliet et al., 2009]

No CCS CCS


Energy system transformation…

[Vuuren et al., Current opinions in Env. Sust., 2012]


Final remarks• Business as Usual: likely given the current

governance capabilities; it’s correctional force and collateral damage may be impressive.

• Global Governance; preferred and to be pursued; but will it deliver on time?

• Smart economics: economic superiority for sectors, countries, households…; connects to current system capabilities and psychology.

– Develop (niche) markets and market volume.– Divert fossil fuel subsidies (budget neutral).– Rock solid innovation strategies backed by macro-

economic interests: THINK ASIA!!!.


Niet lullen maar poetsen mensen

en dank voor uw aandacht

[email protected]/scopussrren.ipcc-wg3.de/report

mailto:[email protected]

Documents

Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Outlook on Renewable Energy (and reducing GHG emissions). Woudschoten Conferentie