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COP 21 : Transport challenges
Prof. Dr. Cathy Macharis
Date
Content
I. Yes we should!
II. Yes we can!
III. How to keep up
the good work?
Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI 2
I. Yes we should!
Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI 3
Globalisation
Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI 4
Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI 5
x100 in 40 years
Depot Depot
MASSIFICATION
Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI 6
Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI
Urbanisation
7
41 66%
2050
Megacities
Depot Depot
MASSIFICATION
Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI 9
ATOMISATION
Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI 10
11 Source: EU transport in figures, Statistical Pocketbook 2014, EC
Cathy
Macharis,
VUB-MOBI
12
13 Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI
EU Objectives
The gap between Business as Usual and EC emission targets
15
1990 2030 2050
Trend
Target
Gap
Car emissions
CO2 emissions in 2050, 60% below 1990 levels (White paper)
CO2 emissions in 2050, no interventions
ΔCO2 = ΔMobility +
ΔEfficiency + ΔEnergy
Source: Hötl and Macharis, 2015
II. Yes we can!
Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI 16
Consumer Perception and Sustainability
6% 11% 8% 4%
4% 5%
5%
2% 3%
29%
43% 45%
16% 11%
39%
26% 26%
57% 44%
22% 15% 15% 25%
37%
Overall US UK China BrazilNone Weak Moderate Strong Very Strong
Accenture, 2012
Who should take the biggest role?
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%
Source: Lek Consulting
Competitive Advantage
Cost
Customization
1950s 1990s
Quality
2015
Sustainability
Innovation
Awareness
Anticipation Avoidance
Act and shift
4 A’s of sustainable transport
Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI 20
.
Programmes & certification
Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI 21
External cost calculator
Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI 22
Source: MOBI, 2013
Raw
materials
Production of
components
Assembly and
distribiution
Waste
Raw
materials
Refining
and
transport
Distribution
Usage
Life cycle assessment
Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI
See CLEVER project
@ http://www.belspo.be/belspo/SSD/science/pr_transport_nl.stm
23
Climate change
See CLEVER project
@ http://www.belspo.be/belspo/SSD/science/pr_transport_nl.stm Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI
24
Awareness
Anticipation Avoidance
Act and shift
4 A’s of sustainable transport
Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI 25
Product Compaction
Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI 26
2007
Less volume shipped - Same value
2012
Packaging compaction
Before redesign:
• 252 bags on a pallet
• 61.905 pallets shipped to
Ikea per year
After:
• 360 bags on a pallet
• 43.334 pallets
Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI 27
Use your capacity
Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI 28
European trucks are half empty!
Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI 29
160 billion euros
20%
50%
100%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
% Load factor
Cost of inefficiency
Source: Eurostat Data compiled by F Cruyssen
www.co3-project.eu
External
(other
organisations)
External
(Competitors)
External
(Clients)
External
(Suppliers)
Internal Horizontal
Collaboration
Vertical
Collaboration
Supply Chain Cooperation
Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI 30
MOBI for Innoviris, 2011-2014
City distribution center
Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI 31
-27% vehiclekms -1% of all flows
Awareness
Anticipation Avoidance
Act and shift
4 A’s of sustainable transport
Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI 33
City barge transport
Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI 34
LAMBIT is online
www.voortophetspoor.be
Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI 35
Vrije Universiteit Brussel - MOBI MOBI - Mobility, Logistics and Automotive Technology
36
SYNCHROMODAL
TRANSPORT PLANNING
infrastructure & vehicle capacity
transport service requirements & flexibility levels
SUPPLY DEMAND
transport operators & network managers
senders & receivers
transport planners
capacity matching model
vehicle performance estimation
dynamic routing
trust & cooperation mechanisms
(dynamic) MODE CHOICE
Cargo Bikes
Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI 37
68%
Night distribution
Awareness
Anticipation Avoidance
Act and shift
4 A’s of sustainable transport
Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI 39
Electric vehicles
40 Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI 40
Total Cost of Ownership
Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI 41
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Diesel RenaultNew Kangoo
Express
Electric RenaultKangoo ZE
Diesel MercedesSprinter
Electric SmithEdison
TCO
(€
uro
cen
ts p
er
km)
Source: VUB-MOBI, 2015
Vrije Universiteit Brussel - MOBI MOBI - Mobility, Logistics and Automotive Technology 42
Sustainability
Sustainable
Logistics
Growth
Efficiency
Employment
Competivity
Choice
Climate change
Air quality
Noise
Land use
Biodiversity
Waste
Safety
Health
Accessibility
Equity
Economy
Society Environment
Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI 43
III. How to keep up the good
work?
Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI 44
The climate change battle continues!
Possible solutions
Economical Ecological Social Awareness! Internalisation of external costs + ++ +
Programmes & Certification ++ + +
Avoid! Optimisation of loading factors ++ +++ +
Horizontal & Vertical Cooperation ++ +++ +++
Urban Distribution center & Alternative Consolidation schemes -/+ +++ ++
Act! City barge transport & Pallets +/- +++ ++
Cargo Tram +/- +++ ++
Night time deliveries + ++ -
Anticipate! Natural Gas + + +
Electric Vehicles + +++ ++
Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI 47
Economical Ecological Social Awareness! Internalisation of external costs + ++ +
Programmes & Certification ++ + +
Avoid! Optimisation of loading factors ++ +++ +
Horizontal & Vertical Cooperation ++ +++ +++
Urban Distribution center & Alternative Consolidation schemes -/+ +++ ++
Act! City barge transport & Pallets +/- +++ ++
Cargo Tram +/- +++ ++
Night time deliveries + ++ -
Anticipate! Natural Gas + + +
Electric Vehicles + +++ ++
Possible solutions
Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI 48
Why it fails
Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI 49
Why it fails
The list is long:
•Leiden
•Malaga
•Nuremberg
•Utrecht
….
Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI 50
Multi Actor Multi Criteria Analysis (MAMCA)
Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI 51
Multi Actor View
Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI 52
Multi Actor Multi Criteria Analysis
(MAMCA)
Macharis, 2004 Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI 53
Real time workshops
MOSI - Transport & Logistics 54 www.mamca.be
Conclusion
• Yes we should!
• Yes we can!:
–Awareness
–Avoid
–Act and shift
–Anticipate
• Let’s work together:
–Actor involvement
55 Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI 55
Get in touch with us!
56 MOBI - Mobility, Logistics and Automotive Technology
Prof. Joeri Van Mierlo
EV’s and Hybrid vehicles
Prof. Cathy Macharis
Logistics, city distribution and sustainable
mobility
Prof. Peter Van den Bossche
Standardisation and batteries
Prof. Lieselot Vanhaverbeke
Location analysis
Geo-Marketing
Socio-economic aspets of EV’s
Prof. Thierry Coosemans
Electromobility
Prof. Thomas Crispeels
Business Modelling and innovation
Prof. Wouter Verbeke
Big data and data anlaytics
Prof. Noshin Omar
Director Battery Innovation
Centre
Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels
mobi.vub.ac.be
twitter.com/MOBI_VUB