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SECURING ENERGY RESOURCE…and ‘Plan B’
John F Hill, 22nd June 2011
This document contains confidential and proprietary information of Converteam and must not be used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied by Converteam. Its contents must not be disclosed to any other
person nor copied in whole or in part without the prior written consent of Converteam
CUSTOMISED TECHNOLOGY FOR CUSTOMER SUCCESS 22Jun11 2© 2011 Converteam UK Ltd. All rights reservedCOMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE
The OpportunityPower generation – an immediate need
The MachinesThe materials to make the solution
Reducing the RiskLong term plans, local suppliers
Investing in ‘Plan B’The cost and value of a reserve option
Securing Energy Resource
CUSTOMISED TECHNOLOGY FOR CUSTOMER SUCCESS 22Jun11 3© 2011 Converteam UK Ltd. All rights reservedCOMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE
The opportunity - replacement
NEW GENERATION CAPACITY
The size of the market:First underlying fact: conventional generating plant retirements– Throughout the EU, 365GW+ (over 50%) of plant replaced between 2000 and 2030 – Example UK: Over 40GW of generating plant retire between now and 2030
DECC Electricity Market Reform Analysis, courtesy: Redpoint Energy Ltd
Source: European Commission
PLUS GROWTH
CUSTOMISED TECHNOLOGY FOR CUSTOMER SUCCESS 22Jun11 4© 2011 Converteam UK Ltd. All rights reservedCOMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE
The opportunity – size
NEW GENERATION CAPACITY
The size of the market:Second underlying fact
– Europe: targets 20% of energy from renewable sources by 2020
Legally bindingSome EU nations to do moreExample UK - ~30% of electricity, normalised score end 2010; 7.2%!
– Options (similar throughout Europe)First new nuclear; 2027?CCS operational stage; 2025?Large scale solar PV; cost 2020? South of 50º NCCGT with area heat; 2018?Large scale wind; 2014 Energy efficiency; NOW
Other underlying facts– China: massive commitment– India: most acute energy shortage– Brazil: best onshore wind– USA: Obama’s second term?
courtesy: Eurostat, EC
EU national energy targets (%demand)
Source: Redpoint Energy Ltd, Electricity Market Reform Analysis
Source: DECC Energy Trends Mar11
CUSTOMISED TECHNOLOGY FOR CUSTOMER SUCCESS 22Jun11 5© 2011 Converteam UK Ltd. All rights reservedCOMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE
The OpportunityPower generation – an immediate need
The MachinesThe materials to solve the problem
Reducing the RiskLong term plans, local suppliers
Investing in ‘Plan B’The cost and value of a reserve option
Securing Energy Resource
CUSTOMISED TECHNOLOGY FOR CUSTOMER SUCCESS 22Jun11 6© 2011 Converteam UK Ltd. All rights reservedCOMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE
Pioneering – utility scale, variable speed wind turbines
The Megawatt class (1995)Typical rated powers: 500kW - 2MWStart-up wind speed: 4m/sRated power from: 13m/sRated speed: 20m/sCut out speed: 25m/sRotor diameter: ~70mAsynchronous doubly-fed generatorConverteam ProWind DF converterWith patented power control
Tacke 1.5s, courtesy Tacke Wind 1995
Power train costs kept lowest by converter feed to the rotor of the generator only, and availability of ‘catalogue’ generators
The Wind turbine power train
CUSTOMISED TECHNOLOGY FOR CUSTOMER SUCCESS 22Jun11 7© 2011 Converteam UK Ltd. All rights reservedCOMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE
Pioneering – utility scale, variable speed wind turbines
The Multi - Megawatt class (2002)Typical rated powers: 2.0 - 5MWStart-up wind speed: 3m/sRated power from: 13m/s, toCut out speed: 25m/sRotor diameter: 80 - 100mAsynchronous squirrel cage generatorConverteam ProWind FF converter4 quadrant Active Energy ManagementEU / USA Grid Code complianceGrid Fault Ride ThroughWith patented power control SWT 2.3 series, courtesy Siemens Wind Power 2004
No increase to overall power train costs as power electronic costs reduce, and converter fully feeds the ‘catalogue’ generator, with no slip rings.
The Wind turbine power train
CUSTOMISED TECHNOLOGY FOR CUSTOMER SUCCESS 22Jun11 8© 2011 Converteam UK Ltd. All rights reservedCOMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE
The machines – mainstream rating
Matching the wind farm developer CFO
Larger, utility scale wind turbines, with higher ratings (onshore <3MW, offshore <6MW) are now mainstream:
Because infrastructure costs do not grow in proportion to rating
– Small projects require big development (consenting, access, connection)– Small turbines require similar footfall– Sites have specific access tolerance– Wind is turbulent near ground level (tall towers, large rotors)– Therefore best kWh/capital is at higher power
Higher turbine ratings require a lower speed turbine rotor– High power rating and low speed, mean high torque generator– (or high ratio gearbox)
Minimising turbine structural cost requires a low mass nacelle– Low mass nacelle requires a low mass generator
Highest torque / lowest mass = highest torque density– Therefore the lightest generator, with:
The lowest serial production costThe least supporting structural cost
DD115, courtesy XEMC Darwind
CUSTOMISED TECHNOLOGY FOR CUSTOMER SUCCESS 22Jun11 9© 2011 Converteam UK Ltd. All rights reservedCOMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE
V112 3MW, courtesy Vestas 2.5xl, courtesy GE Wind
Utility scale, variable speed wind turbines
The Standard Speed PMG, onshore or offshore (2009)Large scale serial production plannedGlobally marketedGiant, multi-national turbine makers ‘Building Block’ assembly(say) 250kg of magnets
Emerging magnet dependence – Standard Speed
CUSTOMISED TECHNOLOGY FOR CUSTOMER SUCCESS 22Jun11 10© 2011 Converteam UK Ltd. All rights reservedCOMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE
Utility scale, variable speed wind turbines
Multibrid M5000 Courtesy: Prokon Nord Hybrid PMG –Converteam Nancy
Power ratings for offshore
Fully integrated, geared, Permanent Magnet Generator
Rated Powers: 2 - 5MWRated Speeds: 100 – 400rpmIntermediate Speed Permanent Magnet GeneratorMagnets: 500kg to 1 tonne
Emerging magnet dependence – Hybrid
CUSTOMISED TECHNOLOGY FOR CUSTOMER SUCCESS 22Jun11 11© 2011 Converteam UK Ltd. All rights reservedCOMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE
Utility scale, variable speed wind turbines
The Direct Drive PMG for a giant Wind Turbine (2010)Large scale serial production plannedGlobally marketedGiant, multi-national turbine maker ‘Building Block’ assemblyVery high reliabilityLow maintenanceHigh efficiencyConverteam ProWind FF converter4 quadrant Active Energy ManagementEU / USA Grid Code complianceGrid Fault Ride ThroughWith patented power controlMagnets: around 2 tonne
Price competitive with conventional topology
Emerging magnet dependence – Direct Drives
SWT 3.0-101 (courtesy Siemens Wind Power)
CUSTOMISED TECHNOLOGY FOR CUSTOMER SUCCESS 22Jun11 12© 2011 Converteam UK Ltd. All rights reservedCOMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE
The 20 year challenge
Horses for coursesTidal Power
Tidal energy has one great advantage – predictabilityExploiting this source is challenged by its cyclic power
output…and tidal zones give us priceless natural features
– Tidal turbinesUsed in a modular way can avoid impacts to the
ecology of a tidal zone, but will produce power to a profile which matches the ebb and flow rates
Local Flywheels or batteries can compensate efficiently for the cyclic nature of the power available, with high storage density
– Small Hydro PowerLagoon walls can provide Hydro storage, and contain
turbines which generate electricity as the tide rises / lagoon fills, then generate and regulate energy when the tide turns / lagoon empties.
– Batch processesMany energy intensive industrial processes are
operated in cycles, which can be designed to chronologically match tidal power availability Deltastream, courtesy Tidal Energy Limited
La Rance, courtesy EdF
Fleming Lagoon, courtesy DECC
Infrastructure – power balance
CUSTOMISED TECHNOLOGY FOR CUSTOMER SUCCESS 22Jun11 13© 2011 Converteam UK Ltd. All rights reservedCOMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE
Infrastructure – power balance
The 20 year challenge
Horses for coursesWave Power
Some wave technology uses hydraulic accumulators as stores – but these produce difficult maintenance issues
Careful modelling of very large wave farm layout can provide virtually constant power rating with no additional storage
…but very large wave farms are many years away. For the next ten years…
– SupercapacitorsActual constant power is possible for every wave
device by fitting supercapacitors to the existing power electronic converter – crucial for direct generation
– HydroAir‘Rotating Inertia’ of air turbines on oscillating water
columns can provide sufficient power output smoothing. This is the same resistance to slowing, as described to ride through grid events, but in response to the peak and trough of the wave energy source.
HydroAir, courtesy Dresser Rand
Supercapacitors on the DC link, Converteam ATG
Powerbuoy, courtesy OPT20−
020406080
100120140160180
INPUT POWER IN KWATTS
0
5
10
15
20
25
30OUTPUT POWER IN KWATTS
CUSTOMISED TECHNOLOGY FOR CUSTOMER SUCCESS 22Jun11 14© 2011 Converteam UK Ltd. All rights reservedCOMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE
The OpportunityPower generation – an immediate need
The MachinesThe materials to solve the problem
Defining the Risk and Reducing itLong term plans, local suppliers
Investing in ‘Plan B’The cost and value of a reserve option
Securing Energy Resource
CUSTOMISED TECHNOLOGY FOR CUSTOMER SUCCESS 22Jun11 15© 2011 Converteam UK Ltd. All rights reservedCOMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE
The Risk – political backdrop
WIND TURBINES
The attractiveness of our accessible market:UTILITY SCALE– Breathtaking chance of modern, sustainable business– Massive capital investment in all tiers of the industry
BARRIERS - UK, Germany, France– Industries need…
Political and regulatory stability– Consenting and regulatory authorities need…
A clearer brief, and genuine understanding of the servicethey provide, to our wider societyTime to assist, to guide, to improve, brave initiatives or honest objections of residents, farmers and industryResources to take responsibility for the co-ordination of their data needs; one standard, one checklist (perhaps not one hurdle, but one racecourse)
CLEARLY – the wind industry was formed by environmentalists. We have…– A desire to maintain a natural, scenic setting for life– A recognition of the corrosive impact of short term
opportunism
Source: BIS Penfold Review Jul10
Whitelee, courtesy ScottishPower Renewables
THE UNFATHOMABLE BUSINESS CHALLENGE - POLITICS
CUSTOMISED TECHNOLOGY FOR CUSTOMER SUCCESS 22Jun11 16© 2011 Converteam UK Ltd. All rights reservedCOMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE
The Risk – competitiveness
WIND TURBINES
There’s no UK, utility scale turbine maker. For an original equipment supplier:
100% export– First stops Europe and Asia
Specification risk and cost– Example: Chinese standards / regulations / COP
Contractual risk and cost– Example: German warranty law
Transportation risk and cost– Example: weather delay and damage– Result: delivery (and inward) stock holding
Tariff and duty cost– Example: Indian import classifications
Exchange rate risk and cost– Risk both ways; sales and foreign purchases
UK BOM costs / landed prices– Euro overvalued, Sterling undervalued; imports expensive, exports competitive
Despite all this WE REMAIN HIGHLY COMPETITIVE. If only UK content were higher…
Turbine Maker
Tier One
Tier Two
Tier Three
Source: Economist Big Mac Index
CUSTOMISED TECHNOLOGY FOR CUSTOMER SUCCESS 22Jun11 17© 2011 Converteam UK Ltd. All rights reservedCOMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE
The Risk – commodities
WIND TURBINES
The UK has little indigenous ‘rare earth’ material:
China produces 90% of world supplies; exports cut by 40% in 2010– Currently stockpiling; “environmental concerns”
Prices doubled in the last three weeks– Neodymium oxide for permanent magnets up by 78%
Deliveries extended to 30 weeks– Typical state-owned supplier, less than 2% of to date 2011
Low UK share of hi-tech material manufacture:
Carbon fibre prices have risen 80 – 100% in the last ten years– While volumes continue to rise
Power semiconductor volumes for wind CAGR >25% – Industry book-to-bill regularly 1.1– UK manufacturer Dynex, Chinese owned, expanding, Q1/11 book-to-
bill 1.4
Hywind tow out, courtesy Statoil
CUSTOMISED TECHNOLOGY FOR CUSTOMER SUCCESS 22Jun11 18© 2011 Converteam UK Ltd. All rights reservedCOMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE
The OpportunityPower generation – an immediate need
The MachinesThe materials to solve the problem
Defining the Risk and Reducing itLong term plans, local suppliers
Investing in ‘Plan B’The cost and value of a reserve option
Securing Energy Resource
CUSTOMISED TECHNOLOGY FOR CUSTOMER SUCCESS 22Jun11 19© 2011 Converteam UK Ltd. All rights reservedCOMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE
Compact Induction generators
Why for wind?
Under control at high overspeeds
No magnets– No demagnetisation risk– Lower propensity to shock damage– No eddy current heating
Simpler production
Lower cost in higher volumes
Variant on current production
Massive service experience
Alternative Strategies
CIG, Converteam Rugby
CUSTOMISED TECHNOLOGY FOR CUSTOMER SUCCESS 22Jun11 20© 2011 Converteam UK Ltd. All rights reservedCOMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE
Bigger still - superconducting generators
Why for wind?
1.7MW Hydrogenie rotor, Converteam Rugby
High Temperature Superconducting wire only now starting production, but…
– Could be cheaper than copper to carry the same current the same distance in just a few years; trend…
1998 $1000 / kAm2002 $200 / kAm2005 $100-$150 /kAm2009 < $100 /kAm
– In five years, it could be more readily available than permanent magnets, as rare earth availability declines
– HTS Machines can be 50% of the size of conventional machines
– Ideal for the naturally high torque of wind turbines
– Value of very high power density is amplified by nacelle mounting costs
Patents, Converteam Technology Ltd
Alternative Strategies
CUSTOMISED TECHNOLOGY FOR CUSTOMER SUCCESS 22Jun11 21© 2011 Converteam UK Ltd. All rights reservedCOMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE
Superconducting generators
Why for wind?
Higher efficiency– HTS rotor has almost zero losses – power
consumed by the cryogenics is a small fraction of the normal losses in a conventional rotor
– For a superconducting generator, efficiency improvements of several % are possible leading to significant savings over the lifetime of the machine
High system stability by using novel machine design (e.g. air gap winding)Low synchronous reactance (typically 0.3 to 0.4 per unit)Low load angle (typically <20 deg at full load)High pull out torque
1.7MW Hydrogenie rotor, Converteam RugbyPatents, Converteam Technology Ltd
Alternative Strategies
This document contains confidential and proprietary information of Converteam and must not be used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied by Converteam. Its contents must not be disclosed to any other
person nor copied in whole or in part without the prior written consent of Converteam
www.converteam.com
Thank you for your attention