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THE ETHIOPIAN RAILWAYS PROJECT
(The Sub Sahara Transit Gateway)
Adil AbdallaJune 2011
Controlled Copy
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Africans on the Move
Starting Point: The MDGs; Global Partnership
Target 8.A:Develop further an open, rule-based, predictable, non-discriminatory trading and financial system
Target 8.B: Address the special needs of least developed countries
Target 8.C: Address the special needs of landlocked developing countries and small island developing States
Target 8.D:Deal comprehensively with the debt problems of developing countries
Target 8.E:In cooperation with pharmaceutical companies, provide access to affordable essential drugs in developing countries
Target 8.F: In cooperation with the private sector, make available benefits of new technologies, especially information and communications
“MDGs : UN’s Millennium Development Goals”
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The Development Axis
Beijing
Accra
4,000 miles
• Medium & Lower HD Rates• Fast Growing Population• Conventional Economics• Immature Governance• Fast Growing GDP
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The PPP Modeling
Invested Capital
Risk Sharing with Gov.
Profit Sharing with Gov.
Regulatory Supervision
Ops Sharing with Gov.
BOO BOT
Gov. Share is non monetary
Risk Liability & Management
Enabler for Ops Support
Alignment to Public Interests
Sustaining Ops. know-how
Build, Operate & TransferBuild, Own & Operate
It is about the legal provisions to sale all or part of the shares
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Trans-Africa Railway: Alignment
Since 1912
Corridor will include Road & Rail
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Trans-Africa Railway: Countries
http://www.nationmaster.com/index.phphttp://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/06/21/2010_failed_states_index_interactive_map_and_rankingshttp://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/04/all-sp-sovereign-credit-ratings-in-order-from-aaa-to-junk.htmlhttp://www.indexmundi.com/g/r.aspx?c=sg&v=113
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Senegal Mali Niger Nigeria Chad Sudan Ethiopia Djibouti
GDP 2009 bln $ 18.2 12.3 16.5 155.6 20.2 69.4 56.9 1.5
Aid % in GDP 9.7 15.7 11.6 0.4 9.3 2.0 10.8 12.9
GDP Growth % 5.1 6.1 4.5 6.9 5.5 8.0 8.7 3.2
Population mln 12.6 14.2 16.5 155.2 10.7 45.1 90.9 0.8
Rail Length km 906 593 3,505 3,505 0 5,987 681 100
Railway Rank 95 114 49 50 (NA) 30 108 128
Passengersmln km pe 12.1 14.9 0 1.3 0 1.1 2.9 103.4
Surface Cargomln ton km 32.6 14.4 0 0.6 0 21.1 0.9 122.3
Sovereign Credit Rating B+ (NA) (NA) B+ (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
Failed States 102 83 20 14 2 3 17 74
Human Develop. 144 160 167 142 163 154 157 147
Trans-Africa Railway: Anchor Ports: Le port de Dakar
NetworkRail/Road
Capacity779,460 Dwt
OperatorDP World
Investment Plan300 billions CFA
Containers Storage1.5 million TEU
Area131 hectares
Traffic?? millions MT
Cranes??
http://www.portdakar.sn/?lang=en
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Trans-Africa Railway: Anchor Ports: Djibouti
NetworkAirport/Road
Capacity3,030 Dwt
OperatorDP World
Investment Plan$ 50 mln
Containers Storage1,600 TEU
Area20 hectares
Traffic3.5 millions MT
Cranes4
http://djiboutiembassyke.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=59:djibouti-port&catid=31:djibouti&Itemid=1
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Target Case Study: Ethiopia Railways
The Track
The Stations
No info
5,000 kmLaunched Jan 2011
165 in 3 grades
Standard solutions
Loan of $320 mln from China
Contract Awarded China Railways Co
Serve 49 Cities Only 6 qualify for Transit Hubs
The System 50 x 1000 seats
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Target Case Study: Target Locations
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EXAMPLE
Phase One: 6 Main Cities
Phase Two: 7 Main Cities
Target Case Study: Integrated Development
Railway Alignment
The New Transit Hub
The Existing
City
EXAMPLE
The Urban Orientation
The Future
City
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Target Case Study: Proposed Transit Township
Railway Alignment
The New Transit
Hub
The Existing
City
EXAMPLEPlot 2,000,000 ft2GFA 2,000,000 ft2The City HallTransit HubShopping MallOffice BldgsHotelResidential BldgsCineplexRecreational ParkGardensNursery & SchoolCommunity ClinicSurface Car ParkOthers…Invest $ 300mln
Spearheading the Urban DevelopmentCatalyst for Social Economic Upgrading
Focus point for FDIs in the Metropolitans
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The Transit Hub
Case Study: Summary
•Phase One - Principle Cities: 6 nos. Transit HubsEach 2,000,000 ft2 Plot
• Phase Two – Main Cities: 7 nos.Grand StationsEach 500,000 ft2 Plot
• Phase Three – Grade One Stations: 50 nos.Standard Stations
• Phase Four – Grade Two Stations: 50 nos.Basic Stations
•Phase Five – Grade Three Stations: 58 nos.Platform Plus
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Investment Targets
Target Case Study: Proposed Concession Structure
Award Mgmt
(Negotiate)ETNH ?? Years BOO
(Award)BOO Concession
(Product)Multipurpose Train
Central Stations
Concession Design Mgmt
(Enabling Environment)Ethiopian Investment
Corporation
(PPP Initiative)Ethiopian Government
(Regulatory)Ethiopian Municipal
Councils
(Target)New Urban Catalyst
Townships
Ethraa FZ LLC(Investment Development Manager)
Other Investors(To Be Named Later)
Ethiopian Railways Corporation
(Government Partner)
ZZZZZ Plc(Local Ethiopian Investor)
XXXXX LLC(Strategic Investor)
Operations
ETNHEthiopia New Horizons LLC
(Concession Company)
YYYYYY(Int’l Master Concessionaire)
Example; Subject to the Final Consortium Formation
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Case Study: Launch Actions
• Launch the Investment Development Management: Sign off HOA with the Sovereign Client(Ethiopian Railways Corporation)
• Recognize the Enabling Environment:Workshops with Concerned Authorities
• Develop the Product Identification:Report on Findings and Compliances
• Consortiums Formation:Legal Negotiations and Foundation
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