Continuing Evolution of the CDIAC Fossil-Fuel-Derived

Carbon Dioxide EmissionsTime Series:

Past, Present, and Future

Bob Andres

andresrj@ornl.gov

Gregg Marland, Tom Boden

2010 CDIAC Advisory Panel Meeting 1/11

Basis of CDIAC FF CO2 Time Series

Year1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

Car

bon

Dio

xide

Em

issi

ons (

Tg

C)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000Legend

TotalSolid fuelsLiquid fuelsGaseous fuelsGas flaringCement production

2010 CDIAC Advisory Panel Meeting 2/11

Brief Outline

1. One degree mapping2. Monthly emissions3. Error analyses4. Stable carbon isotope signatures

2010 CDIAC Advisory Panel Meeting 3/11

One Degree MappingVesta Animation, 2010

2010 CDIAC Advisory Panel Meeting 4/11

Monthly Emissions

2010 CDIAC Advisory Panel Meeting 5/11

Error Analyses- Estimates1. Marland and Rotty (1984)

10.2% (dependent) to 6.1% (independent)90% confidence intervalbased on evaluation of individual terms in calculation

2. Andres, Marland, Houghton (in prep.)9.55 to 9.74 % 95% confidence interval (2 sigma)based on quantifying the qualitative national error classes of

Andres et al. (1996)

3. Jonas, Hamal, Marland (various stages) and Andres and Marland (in prep., parallel effort)x % based primarily on changes in self-reported totals

4. Macknick (2009)-2.9 to 4.8%comparison of EIA, IEA, UN/CDIAC, and EDGAR data

2010 CDIAC Advisory Panel Meeting 6/11

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Sour

ces

(Pg

C/y

ear)

0

2

4

6

8

10

Year1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Sink

s (P

g C

/ yea

r)

0

2

4

6

8

10

Legend

Fo ssil Fuel +La nd U se

Legend

Ocea n U pta keA tmo spheric Increa seTerrestria l U pta ke

Error Analyses- Why?

2010 CDIAC Advisory Panel Meeting 7/11

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Sour

ces

(Pg

C/y

ear)

0

2

4

6

8

10

Year1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Sink

s (P

g C

/ yea

r)

0

2

4

6

8

10

Legend

Fo ssil Fuel +La nd U se

Legend

Ocea n U pta keA tmo spheric Increa seTerrestria l U pta ke

Error Analyses- Why?

Year1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Sink

s (Pg

C/ y

ear)

0

2

4

6

8

10Legend

Ocean UptakeAtmospheric IncreaseTerrestrial Uptake

2010 CDIAC Advisory Panel Meeting 8/11

Stable Carbon Isotope Signatures

Year1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000St

able

Car

bon

Isot

ope

Sign

atur

e (d

el13C

, per

mil)

-29

-28

-27

-26

-25

-24

2010 CDIAC Advisory Panel Meeting 9/11

Forthcoming1. Lead author on RECCAP chapter on fossil fuel emissions

2. More publications with utilization of monthly data in new applications

3. FF inventory role in GHGIS?

4. Expanded and improved FFCO2 database interfacelinks together existing dataallows queriesallows simple analyses

5. Other opportunities when contacted by those who realize our expertise in FFCO2 emissions

2010 CDIAC Advisory Panel Meeting 10/11

Conclusions

1. CDIAC offers a basic data product for FF CO2 emission estimates, as well as variants on that data.

2. This data is widely used and in many applications.

3. We look forward to your input to help guide our future activities.

2010 CDIAC Advisory Panel Meeting 11/11