Contents · September 14, 2015 NORDIC BAROMETER Consumer Price Inflation 2 | (% change year-on-year, unless otherwise stated) 2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f Gross Domestic Product 0.6

September 14, 2015 NORDIC BAROMETER

1 | www.mjeconomics.com

Nordic Barometer© - September 2015 ***A monthly survey of economic forecasts and expert opinion for the Nordic area, distributed to subscribers by e-mail within just a few working days of the polling date. Rapid compilation and dissemination make the Nordic Barometer a unique reference tool for investors, traders and corporate planners.***

Survey Deadline: September 14th, 2015

Sweden Leading the Pack

Swedish growth prospects remain strong, and with monetary policy stimulus continuing the GDP growth forecast for 2016 has increased this month. Forecasters are more optimistic concerning investment growth and less sure of exports, but continue to believe the unemployment rate will steadily fall and the fiscal deficit will narrow.

Meanwhile in Denmark, forecasters have become more pessimistic as manufacturers struggle for market share with doubts over Germany’s economy and slower growth in the emerging markets. The outlook for investment and the unemployment rate is nevertheless improved, the current account is strong and inflation fairly benign.

Norway’s outlook is rather mixed as the oil service industry nosedives, but traditional exports remain robust, aided by a competitive exchange rate. Oil industry cutbacks have further weakened the investment profile, but inflation forecasts have increased.

Finland’s outlook remains by far the bleakest with the economy still struggling to grow. Downgraded exports and investment forecasts have caused the GDP growth predictions to slide and the unemployment rate is becoming a bigger problem with forecasts substantially raised.

Next Month's Survey Deadline:

October 19th, 2015

Published by: MJEconomics (ISSN 1476-7449) www.mjeconomics.com

Editorial queries: [email protected] Subscriptions: [email protected] Other enquiries: [email protected]

Regional Overview and Aggregates 2

Quarterly Consensus Forecasts 3

Denmark

2015 Forecasts for National Accounts 4 2015 Forecasts for Other Indicators 5 2016 Forecasts for National Accounts 6 2016 Forecasts for Other Indicators 7

Finland


Norway


Sweden


Iceland Snapshot 20

Interest Rate & Oil Price Forecasts 21

Exchange Rate Forecasts 22

Central Bank Watch 23

Long Term Forecasts 24

Contents

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(% change year-on-year, unless otherwise stated) 2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f

Gross Domestic Product 0.6 0.6 1.7 1.6 1.9

Private Consumption 1.7 1.5 1.9 1.9 1.9

Government Consumption 1.1 1.1 1.8 1.6 1.6

Gross Fixed Investment 2.2 1.2 2.3 0.0 2.5

Unemployment Rate (% of labour force) 6.2 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.7

Consumer Price Inflation 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.6

General Government Balance (% GDP) 4.3 3.0 1.9 1.3 1.7

Notes: Regional totals are weighted averages calculated from the individual country data, using fixed GDP weights for 2010 and

converted to euros at average 2010 exchange rates. f = consensus (mean average) forecast.

Calculated Regional Aggregates

Still Outstripping the Euro Zone

The growth forecasts for 2015 and 2016 remain unchanged at 1.6% and 1.9% respectively this month, which suggests the Nordic region is growing at a slightly stronger pace than the euro area. However, ignoring Finland, the two regions contain some very diverse economies with Sweden and Spain respectively outperforming their peers.

The outlook for private consumption in the Nordic region this year has improved slightly, reflecting mainly the fall in oil prices lowering energy bills and transport costs. Investment forecasts have been reduced, however, and the unemployment rate outlook for 2016 has increased.

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Regional GDP Growth% change, year-on-year

Source: national statistical offices; MJE calculations

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15

Regional 2015 GDP Growth Forecasts % change, year-on-year

Source: MJE calculations from panellists' forecasts

2015 2016

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Regional Inflation% change, year-on-year

Source: national statistical offices; MJE calculations



Denmark Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15Gross Domestic Product 1.3 0.5 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.8Consumer Prices 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.63 month Interest Rate, % per annum, end period 0.30 0.38 0.29 0.28 -0.16 -0.2110 Year Bond Yield, % per annum, end period 1.62 1.29 1.21 0.84 0.24 1.01

Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16Gross Domestic Product 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.5Consumer Prices 0.5 0.7 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.83 month Interest Rate, % per annum, end period -0.21 -0.21 -0.15 -0.05 0.01 0.0710 Year Bond Yield, % per annum, end period 0.98 0.85 1.28 1.46 1.63 1.29

Finland Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15Gross Domestic Product -0.1 0.2 -0.7 -0.5 0.0 0.0Industrial Production -3.4 -2.0 -2.1 -1.0 -4.0 -3.5Consumer Prices 1.3 0.9 1.1 0.8 -0.1 -0.23 month Interest Rate, % per annum, end period 0.31 0.21 0.08 0.08 0.02 -0.0210 Year Bond Yield, % per annum, end period 1.87 1.45 1.07 0.65 0.20 1.00

Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16Gross Domestic Product -0.3 -0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.3Industrial Production -2.4 -2.2 0.8 2.2 1.8 2.4Consumer Prices 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.03 month Interest Rate, % per annum, end period 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.0510 Year Bond Yield, % per annum, end period 1.01 1.01 1.26 1.35 1.53 1.77

Norway Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15Gross Domestic Product 4.1 -0.1 1.8 3.0 2.5 1.2Industrial Production 5.3 0.3 2.3 6.4 1.3 1.2Consumer Prices 2.1 1.8 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.23 month Interest Rate, % per annum, end period 1.73 1.75 1.65 1.48 1.48 1.3310 Year Bond Yield, % per annum, end period 2.89 2.48 2.26 1.55 1.36 1.85

Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16Gross Domestic Product 1.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.9Industrial Production -0.6 -2.2 -0.9 -0.4 -0.3 0.3Consumer Prices 1.8 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.33 month Interest Rate, % per annum, end period 1.19 1.08 0.98 0.95 0.94 1.1010 Year Bond Yield, % per annum, end period 1.55 1.80 1.56 1.59 1.69 2.10

Sweden Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15Gross Domestic Product 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.6 2.5 3.0Industrial Production -1.4 -1.2 -3.8 -2.5 -2.4 3.2Consumer Prices -0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.13 month Interest Rate, % per annum, end period 0.92 0.75 0.47 0.26 -0.07 -0.2210 Year Bond Yield, % per annum, end period 2.12 1.85 1.49 0.94 0.27 0.98

Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16Gross Domestic Product 3.0 2.7 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.0Industrial Production 2.0 2.0 2.4 1.7 3.2 3.6Consumer Prices -0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.63 month Interest Rate, % per annum, end period -0.25 -0.24 -0.27 -0.27 -0.09 0.2710 Year Bond Yield, % per annum, end period 0.93 1.09 1.23 1.41 1.62 1.91

Quarterly Forecasts and Historical Data(% change year-on-year, unless otherwise stated)



Gross Private Govern- Gross Stock Goods & Goods & Net

Domestic Consump- ment Fixed (inventory) Services Services Exports, %

Product tion Consump- Invest- Building, Exports Imports contribu-

tion ment % contribution to

tion to GDP GDP growth

growth

Danske Bank 1.7 1.9 1.0 0.2 -0.4 5.8 1.9 0.9Econ Intelligence Unit 1.7 1.6 1.6 2.5 0.0 3.4 3.6 0.1Handelsbanken 1.1 na na na na na na naIHS Economics 1.7 1.7 1.4 0.7 na 1.1 -1.4 naNykredit 2.0 2.0 1.2 7.0 na na na 1.1Oxford Economics 1.8 2.3 1.7 0.5 -0.5 3.4 2.6 0.0SEB 2.0 2.5 1.3 2.2 -0.3 3.4 3.2 na

Consensus (Mean Average) 1.7 2.0 1.4 2.2 -0.3 3.4 2.0 0.5Last Month 1.9 2.1 1.3 2.3 -0.2 3.3 2.8 0.52 Months Ago 1.8 2.0 1.4 2.2 -0.2 3.2 2.9 0.5

Median 1.7 2.0 1.4 1.5 -0.4 3.4 2.6 0.5High 2.0 2.5 1.7 7.0 0.0 5.8 3.6 1.1Low 1.1 1.6 1.0 0.2 -0.5 1.1 -1.4 0.0Standard Deviation 0.3 0.3 0.3 2.5 0.2 1.7 2.0 0.6Number of Forecasts 7 6 6 6 4 5 5 4

Other Forecasts Econ Council (May '15) 1.9 1.9 1.0 4.0 0.2 3.3 4.0 naFinance Ministry (August '15) 1.5 1.4 1.4 na 0.0 4.0 4.1 naNationalbank (July '15) 2.0 2.2 0.8 na -0.1 3.3 2.8 naEC (May '15) 1.8 1.8 0.9 2.7 0.0 3.2 3.1 0.2IMF (April '15) 1.6 na na na na na na naOECD (June '15) 1.9 1.9 0.9 3.4 0.0 3.0 3.1 0.1

average % change from previous year

unless otherwise noted

Panellists

Denmark: 2015 ForecastsNational Accounts(constant prices)

Economic growth was below-par during Q2 2015 with real GDP chalking up a 0.2% quarterly rise and 1.8% y/y. In spite of this the Nationalbank remains concerned about growing pressures within the housing market, notably the sharp rise in house prices in Copenhagen sparked by historically low borrowing costs and speculation given expectations of a self-reinforcing spiral.

The Bank has maintained a negative interest rate in order to prevent upward pressure on the krone destabilising the fixed exchange rate to the euro. Another housing market boom and bust would be most unwelcome.

There is equally some concern for the country’s growth and ensuing fiscal record given the threats posed by an emerging markets slowdown. Business confidence has been gently easing in recent months according to the European Commission’s monthly surveys, although it is mostly within the services sector and construction industry, with confidence among consumers, within manufacturing and even in services, generally upbeat.

Consumers are still enjoying very low inflation, among other factors, although the unemployment rate has stopped falling.



Unemploy- Consumer Average Current Current General

ment Rate Prices Earnings Account Account Government

(% of labour (national (private Balance Balance Balance

force) index, headline sector) (annual (% of GDP) (% of GDP)

rate) total, Dkr bn)

Danske Bank 4.7 0.7 na 140.0 7.1 -1.0Econ Intelligence Unit 4.7 0.7 1.5 131.1 6.8 -3.0Handelsbanken na 0.5 na na na naIHS Economics na 0.5 na 109.1 7.1 naNykredit 4.6 0.7 na na na naOxford Economics 4.7 0.5 1.9 130.4 6.5 naSEB 4.5 0.6 1.7 na 7.0 -1.5

Consensus (Mean Average) 4.6 0.6 1.7 127.7 6.9 -1.8Last Month 4.7 0.6 1.6 128.0 6.5 -1.82 Months Ago 4.7 0.6 1.6 125.2 6.4 -2.1

Median 4.7 0.6 1.7 130.8 7.0 -1.5High 4.7 0.7 1.9 140.0 7.1 -1.0Low 4.5 0.5 1.5 109.1 6.5 -3.0Standard Deviation 0.1 0.1 0.2 13.1 0.3 1.0Number of Forecasts 5 7 3 4 5 3

Other ForecastsEcon Council (May '15) na 0.6 na 124.6 6.3 -2.1Finance Ministry (August '15) na 0.7 na na 7.1 -2.7Nationalbank (July '15) na 0.5 2.0 na 7.3 -1.0EC (May '15) na na na na 6.1 -1.5IMF (April '15) na 0.8 na na 6.1 naOECD (June '15) na 0.5 na na 7.0 -1.7

Panellists

Denmark: 2015 ForecastsOther Indicators



Denmark: Historical Data (% change, year-on-year) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Gross Domestic Product 1.6 1.2 -0.7 -0.5 1.1Private Consumption 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.6Government Consumption 1.3 -1.4 -0.2 -0.5 1.4Gross Fixed Investment -4.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 3.7Inventory Building (% contribution) 1.3 0.9 -0.5 -0.2 0.3Goods & Services Exports 1.9 7.3 0.1 0.8 2.6Goods & Services Imports 0.9 7.2 0.9 1.5 3.8Net Exports (% contribution) 0.6 0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5Unemployment Rate (% of labour force) 6.1 6.0 6.1 5.8 5.1Consumer Prices 2.3 2.8 2.4 0.8 0.6Average Earnings (private sector) 2.3 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.3Current Account Balance (Dkr bn) 103.0 105.3 105.0 136.0 121.8 - as a % of GDP 5.7 5.7 5.6 7.2 6.3General Govt Budget Balance (% of GDP) -2.7 -2.1 -3.7 -1.1 1.2Source: Eurostat, Statistics Denmark








growth

Danske Bank 2.1 1.9 0.3 3.2 0.1 4.7 4.6 0.5Econ Intelligence Unit 1.2 1.3 1.0 3.0 -0.2 3.4 3.8 0.0Handelsbanken 0.9 na na na na na na naIHS Economics 1.9 1.4 1.5 4.5 na 4.1 4.3 naNykredit 2.1 1.8 0.4 6.0 na na na 0.3Oxford Economics 2.0 1.8 1.8 3.3 0.4 4.5 5.9 -0.4SEB 2.5 3.0 0.5 4.6 0.0 3.6 4.2 na

Consensus (Mean Average) 1.8 1.9 0.9 4.1 0.1 4.1 4.6 0.1Last Month 2.0 1.9 0.8 3.9 0.0 4.3 4.7 0.12 Months Ago 1.9 1.8 0.8 3.7 0.0 4.1 4.4 0.1

Median 2.0 1.8 0.8 3.9 0.1 4.1 4.3 0.2High 2.5 3.0 1.8 6.0 0.4 4.7 5.9 0.5Low 0.9 1.3 0.3 3.0 -0.2 3.4 3.8 -0.4Standard Deviation 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.4Number of Forecasts 7 6 6 6 4 5 5 4

Other Forecasts Econ Council (May '15) 2.3 2.7 0.1 10.1 0.0 4.8 7.2 naFinance Ministry (August '15) 1.9 1.5 0.1 na 0.2 5.0 5.5 naNationalbank (July '15) 2.1 2.2 0.4 na 0.0 3.5 3.9 naEC (May '15) 2.1 2.1 0.2 3.7 0.0 4.6 4.4 0.3IMF (April '15) 2.0 na na na na na na naOECD (June '15) 2.3 2.2 0.6 3.2 0.0 4.9 4.4 0.5

Panellists

Denmark: 2016 ForecastsNational Accounts(constant prices)



1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2


Denmark 2015 GDP Growth Forecasts% change, year-on-year

Source: MJEconomics

2015 2016

Government: Liberal Party minorityNext Election: 2019 (parliamentary)Capital City: Copenhagen (GMT +1 hour)Currency: Danish Krone (pegged to the euro)

Nominal GDP: $331 bn Population: 5.6 m

Economic Freedom: 10th out of 178 countries Doing Business: 4th out of 189 countries Competitiveness: 13th out of 144 countries Corruption: 1st out of 175 countriesGovernment Debt: 45.2% of GDPCorporate Tax Rate: 24.5%

Sources : Deloitte, IFES Election Guide, Eurostat, FT,Heritage Foundation, MJE, Transparency International, World Bank and World Economic Forum.

Denmark: Background Information



Unemploy- Consumer Average Current Current General

ment Rate Prices Earnings Account Account Government

(% of labour (national (private Balance Balance Balance

force) index, headline sector) (annual (% of GDP) (% of GDP)

rate) total, Dkr bn)

Danske Bank 4.4 1.7 na 140.0 6.8 -2.1Econ Intelligence Unit 4.5 1.8 2.3 126.8 6.5 -3.1Handelsbanken na 1.3 na na na naIHS Economics na 1.0 na 107.4 6.9 naNykredit 4.3 1.2 na na na naOxford Economics 4.7 1.7 3.5 137.8 6.6 naSEB 4.2 1.2 2.2 na 6.5 -0.5

Consensus (Mean Average) 4.4 1.4 2.7 128.0 6.7 -1.9Last Month 4.5 1.5 2.4 125.6 6.3 -2.02 Months Ago 4.5 1.5 2.4 123.0 6.2 -2.1

Median 4.4 1.3 2.3 132.3 6.6 -2.1High 4.7 1.8 3.5 140.0 6.9 -0.5Low 4.2 1.0 2.2 107.4 6.5 -3.1Standard Deviation 0.2 0.3 0.7 14.9 0.2 1.3Number of Forecasts 5 7 3 4 5 3

Other ForecastsEcon Council (May '15) na 2.0 na 98.0 4.8 -3.0Finance Ministry (August '15) na 1.5 na na 7.5 -2.8Nationalbank (July '15) na 1.8 2.8 na 6.6 -2.4EC (May '15) na na na na 6.2 -2.6IMF (April '15) na 1.6 na na 5.5 naOECD (June '15) na 1.2 na na 7.2 -2.6

Panellists

Denmark: 2016 ForecastsOther Indicators



0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.5

Jan '13 Jul Jan '14 Jul Jan '15

Denmark: Unemployment Rate% of labour force

Source: Statistics Denmark

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Jan'09

Jul Jan'10

Jul Jan'11

Jul Jan'12

Jul Jan'13

Jul Jan'14

Jul Jan'15

Jul

Denmark: Inflation Rate% change, year-on-year

Source: Statistics Denmark








growth

Aktia Bank 0.1 0.8 -0.2 -4.0 na -0.5 -1.2 naDanske Bank 0.5 0.6 0.0 -2.0 na 2.0 1.0 naDZ Bank 0.1 1.2 -0.1 -4.2 na -1.3 0.0 naEcon Intelligence Unit 0.4 0.9 0.2 -0.6 -0.2 0.8 1.0 -0.1ETLA 0.5 0.6 0.0 -1.4 0.1 1.0 0.2 0.3Handelsbanken -0.2 0.5 0.5 -0.6 na 0.0 -0.2 0.1IHS Economics -0.3 0.7 -0.2 -3.8 na -1.9 -2.0 naOxford Economics -0.4 0.7 -0.2 -3.6 0.3 -1.1 -0.2 -0.4SEB 0.0 0.2 0.2 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 na

Consensus (Mean Average) 0.1 0.7 0.0 -2.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0Last Month 0.3 0.6 0.1 -2.0 0.2 0.9 0.7 -0.12 Months Ago 0.3 0.6 0.1 -1.8 0.1 1.0 0.7 0.1

Median 0.1 0.7 0.0 -2.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0High 0.5 1.2 0.5 -0.6 0.3 2.0 1.0 0.3Low -0.4 0.2 -0.2 -4.2 -0.2 -1.9 -2.0 -0.4Standard Deviation 0.3 0.3 0.2 1.5 0.2 1.2 1.0 0.3Number of Forecasts 9 9 9 9 4 9 9 4

Other Forecasts Bank of Finland (June '15) 0.2 0.2 0.0 na 0.0 0.6 -0.4 0.4Finance Ministry (April '15) 0.5 0.5 0.2 -0.4 na 1.5 1.0 naEC (May '15) 0.3 0.4 0.1 -1.0 0.0 1.7 1.1 0.2IMF (April '15) 0.8 na na na na na na naOECD (June '15) 0.4 0.6 0.5 -0.5 0.0 1.2 0.7 0.2


Panellists

(constant prices)average % change from previous year

Finland: 2015 ForecastsNational Accounts

The problems are still mounting for the fledgling Centre Party led three-party coalition government, which must introduce politically-contentious reforms and deal with the toxic asylum-seeker issue with an economy still on its knees. Plans to introduce new labour market regulations to lower unit labour costs and make Finland more productive are being staunchly resisted by trades unions planning walkouts.

GDP for Q2 2015 has been upgraded, but is nevertheless still poor. The economy expanded by just 0.2% q/q and remained flat on a y/y basis as the country grappled with the effects of the Russian trade embargo, the demise of Nokia and restructuring in the pulp and paper industry.

The unemployment rate has continued to rise and is now close to 10%, adding to the government’s political problems, while business confidence remains low.

The European Commission’s headline economic sentiment indicator for Finland has been languishing at around 93 to 94 points or so for more than a year now with no clear sign of improvement. Sentiment within the retail trades has improved, buoyed probably by the lack of inflation with oil prices so low, but it has weakened in the construction industry and among manufacturers who are struggling in export markets in spite of depreciation of the euro.



Industrial Unemploy- Consumer Producer Wages & Current Current General

Production ment Rate Prices Prices Salaries Account Account Govt

(% of labour (national (total (private Balance Balance Balance

force) index, industry) sector) (annual (% of GDP) (% of GDP)

headline total,

rate) Euros bn)

Aktia Bank na 9.6 0.0 na 1.0 -1.5 -0.7 -3.4Danske Bank na 9.2 0.2 na 1.1 -2.0 -1.0 -3.1DZ Bank na na 0.2 na na na 0.4 -3.2Econ Intelligence Unit 0.9 9.2 0.1 -2.6 0.5 -1.6 -0.8 -2.5ETLA 1.2 8.8 0.3 -2.0 1.1 -1.7 -0.8 -2.7Handelsbanken -0.8 9.5 -0.3 na 1.1 -1.5 -0.7 -3.3IHS Economics -3.5 9.1 0.0 na na -1.4 -0.7 -3.1Oxford Economics -2.1 9.4 0.0 -0.6 1.6 -1.5 -0.7 -3.0SEB na 9.6 0.1 na 1.8 na -2.0 -2.8

Consensus (Mean Average) -0.9 9.3 0.1 -1.7 1.2 -1.6 -0.8 -3.0Last Month 0.0 9.2 0.1 -1.7 1.1 -1.9 -0.9 -3.02 Months Ago 0.0 9.2 0.1 -1.8 1.0 -1.9 -0.9 -3.0

Median -0.8 9.3 0.1 -2.0 1.1 -1.5 -0.7 -3.1High 1.2 9.6 0.3 -0.6 1.8 -1.4 0.4 -2.5Low -3.5 8.8 -0.3 -2.6 0.5 -2.0 -2.0 -3.4Standard Deviation 2.0 0.3 0.2 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.3Number of Forecasts 5 8 9 3 7 7 9 9

Other ForecastsBank of Finland (June '15) na 9.1 0.1 na 1.1 -2.2 -1.1 -3.1Finance Ministry (April '15) na 8.8 0.3 na 1.2 -1.3 -0.6 -3.4EC (May '15) na 9.1 na na na na -0.7 -3.3IMF (April '15) na 8.7 0.6 na na na -0.3 naOECD (June '15) na 8.8 na na na na -0.9 -3.2


Panellists


Finland: 2015 ForecastsOther Indicators

Finland: Historical Data (% change year-on-year) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Gross Domestic Product 3.0 2.6 -1.4 -1.1 -0.4Private Consumption 3.1 2.9 0.3 -0.3 0.5Government Consumption -0.1 -0.1 0.5 0.8 -0.2Gross Fixed Investment 1.1 4.1 -2.2 -5.2 -3.3Inventory Building (% contribution) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Goods & Services Exports 6.2 2.0 1.2 1.1 -0.8Goods & Services Imports 6.5 6.0 1.6 0.0 0.0Net Exports (% contribution) -0.1 -1.4 -0.2 0.4 -0.3Industrial Production 5.3 1.7 -1.5 -3.2 -2.1Unemployment Rate (% of labour force) 8.4 7.8 7.8 8.2 8.7Consumer Prices 1.2 3.4 2.8 1.5 1.0Producer Prices 5.2 5.6 1.3 -0.4 -1.0Wages and Salaries (private sector) 2.6 2.5 3.0 2.1 1.4Current Account Balance (Euros bn) 2.3 -3.5 -3.9 -3.6 -3.8 - as a % of GDP 1.2 -1.8 -1.9 -1.8 -1.9General Govt Budget Balance (% of GDP) -2.6 -1.0 -2.1 -2.5 -3.2Source: Eurostat, Statistics Finland








growth

Aktia Bank 0.6 0.3 -0.2 1.0 na 2.2 1.3 naDanske Bank 1.4 0.5 -0.5 3.0 na 4.0 2.5 naDZ Bank 1.5 1.1 0.9 1.8 na 2.2 1.4 naEcon Intelligence Unit 1.4 1.0 0.2 2.0 0.0 2.1 1.2 0.4ETLA 1.6 1.3 0.2 2.2 0.0 3.3 2.4 0.4Handelsbanken 1.0 0.7 0.2 3.7 na 2.5 3.0 -0.2IHS Economics 1.0 1.0 0.6 2.3 na 2.5 2.8 naOxford Economics 1.0 0.7 0.4 2.0 0.0 2.0 1.8 0.1SEB 0.9 0.5 0.2 1.0 0.0 2.3 1.4 na

Consensus (Mean Average) 1.2 0.8 0.2 2.1 0.0 2.6 2.0 0.2Last Month 1.3 0.8 0.2 2.4 0.0 3.2 2.4 0.32 Months Ago 1.2 0.9 0.2 2.4 -0.1 3.1 2.4 0.3

Median 1.0 0.7 0.2 2.0 0.0 2.3 1.8 0.3High 1.6 1.3 0.9 3.7 0.0 4.0 3.0 0.4Low 0.6 0.3 -0.5 1.0 0.0 2.0 1.2 -0.2Standard Deviation 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.3Number of Forecasts 9 9 9 9 4 9 9 4

Other Forecasts Bank of Finland (June '15) 1.2 0.4 1.0 na 0.0 3.3 2.5 0.3Finance Ministry (April '15) 1.4 0.8 0.5 3.7 na 3.0 2.8 naEC (May '15) 1.0 0.6 0.1 2.5 0.0 3.9 3.5 0.2IMF (April '15) 1.4 na na na na na na naOECD (June '15) 1.3 1.2 0.0 2.9 0.0 3.9 3.7 0.1


Panellists


Finland: 2016 ForecastsNational Accounts

0.2

0.6

1.0

1.4

1.8

2.2


Finland 2015 GDP Growth Forecasts% change, year-on-year

Source: MJEconomics

2015 2016

Government: Centre Party led coalitionNext Election: By April 2019 (parliamentary)Capital City: Helsinki (GMT +2 hours)Currency: Euro (free float)

Nominal GDP: $257 bnPopulation: 5.4 m

Economic Freedom: 19th out of 178 countries Doing Business: 9th out of 189 countries Competitiveness: 4th out of 144 countries Corruption: 3rd out of 175 countriesGovernment Debt: 59.3% of GDPCorporate Tax Rate: 20.0%

Sources: Deloitte, IFES Election Guide, Eurostat, FT,Heritage Foundation, MJE, Transparency International, World Bank and World Economic Forum.

Finland: Background Information



Industrial Unemploy- Consumer Producer Wages & Current Current General

Production ment Rate Prices Prices Salaries Account Account Govt

(% of labour (national (total (private Balance Balance Balance

force) index, industry) sector) (annual (% of GDP) (% of GDP)

headline total,

rate) Euros bn)

Aktia Bank na 9.8 1.0 na 0.8 -1.0 -0.5 -3.4Danske Bank na 9.0 1.0 na 1.1 -1.5 -0.7 -2.7DZ Bank na na 1.2 na na na 1.0 -3.5Econ Intelligence Unit 3.0 8.9 1.1 -0.6 1.5 -1.5 -0.7 -1.6ETLA 2.4 8.6 1.0 1.5 1.7 -1.5 -0.7 -2.4Handelsbanken 1.5 9.6 0.8 na 1.0 -0.5 -0.2 -2.8IHS Economics 1.1 8.7 1.0 na na -1.2 -0.6 -2.8Oxford Economics 2.4 9.0 1.1 2.3 1.7 -0.1 -0.1 -2.2SEB na 9.6 0.6 na 2.0 na -1.8 -2.5

Consensus (Mean Average) 2.1 9.2 1.0 1.1 1.4 -1.0 -0.5 -2.7Last Month 2.7 8.9 1.1 1.1 1.3 -1.4 -0.6 -2.52 Months Ago 2.8 8.9 1.1 1.0 1.3 -1.4 -0.6 -2.5

Median 2.4 9.0 1.0 1.5 1.5 -1.2 -0.6 -2.7High 3.0 9.8 1.2 2.3 2.0 -0.1 1.0 -1.6Low 1.1 8.6 0.6 -0.6 0.8 -1.5 -1.8 -3.5Standard Deviation 0.8 0.5 0.2 1.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6Number of Forecasts 5 8 9 3 7 7 9 9

Other ForecastsBank of Finland (June '15) na 8.9 1.1 na 1.2 -1.7 -0.8 -3.1Finance Ministry (April '15) na 8.6 1.4 na 1.3 -1.0 -0.5 -3.2EC (May '15) na 9.0 na na na na -0.4 -3.2IMF (April '15) na 8.5 1.6 na na na -0.3 naOECD (June '15) na 8.7 na na na na -0.8 -3.0


Panellists


Finland: 2016 ForecastsOther Indicators

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0


Finland: Unemployment Rate% of labour force

Source: Statistics Finland

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Jan'09

Jul Jan'10

Jul Jan'11

Jul Jan'12

Jul Jan'13

Jul Jan'14

Jul Jan'15

Finland: Inflation Rate% change, year-on-yearSource: Statistics Finland



Private Govern- Gross Stock Goods & Goods & Net

Consump- ment Fixed (inventory) Services Services Exports, %

tion Consump- Invest- Building, Exports Imports contribu-


tion to GDP GDP

growth growth

Total Mainland

Danske Bank 1.3 na 1.9 2.2 -2.1 0.7 1.8 3.0 naDNB Markets 1.6 1.4 2.2 2.3 -4.2 na 1.1 -0.8 naDZ Bank 1.5 1.6 2.1 2.4 -3.0 0.9 1.5 1.9 0.0Econ Intelligence Unit 0.3 na 1.1 2.8 -3.7 0.3 0.4 1.3 -0.2Handelsbanken 1.0 1.2 na na na na na na naIHS Economics 0.8 na 2.4 2.1 -4.6 na 0.8 3.1 naNykredit na 1.5 1.9 2.0 -3.5 na na na -0.4Oxford Economics 1.0 1.1 2.5 1.9 -4.0 1.0 0.6 2.3 -0.4SEB 1.3 1.4 2.7 2.1 -3.8 0.8 1.2 2.3 naStatistics Norway 1.4 1.3 2.6 2.3 -2.8 0.5 2.3 3.0 0.0Swedbank First Securities 1.2 1.2 2.5 2.2 -3.9 0.1 2.3 1.1 0.6Unicredit Bank 1.4 1.7 2.2 2.3 -3.0 0.0 2.0 2.7 0.0 Consensus (Mean Average) 1.2 1.4 2.2 2.2 -3.5 0.5 1.4 2.0 -0.1Last Month 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.4 -3.5 0.4 1.5 1.7 0.02 Months Ago 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.4 -3.4 0.4 1.5 1.6 0.1

Median 1.3 1.4 2.2 2.2 -3.7 0.6 1.4 2.3 0.0High 1.6 1.7 2.7 2.8 -2.1 1.0 2.3 3.1 0.6Low 0.3 1.1 1.1 1.9 -4.6 0.0 0.4 -0.8 -0.4Standard Deviation 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.7 1.2 0.3Number of Forecasts 11 9 11 11 11 8 10 10 7

Other Forecasts Finance Ministry (May '15) 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.4 -3.3 na 1.2 0.3 naNorges Bank (June '15) 1.3 1.3 2.0 na na na na 2.3 naEC (May '15) 1.5 na 1.5 2.7 -1.2 0.0 2.9 1.7 0.6IMF (April '15) 1.0 na na na na na na na naOECD (June '15) 1.2 1.4 1.8 2.4 -3.6 0.6 1.8 1.3 0.3

Panellists

Productaverage % change from previous year


(constant prices)Gross

Domestic

Norway: 2015 ForecastsNational Accounts

The degree to which Norway’s economy has been affected by the negative oil shock is clear from various data releases ranging from the national accounts to investment surveys and Norges Bank’s Regional Network Report (among other sources), all highlighting severe cutbacks in the oil service supplier industry rippling out to the wider economy.

The economy is not expected to drop into recession, however, as the oil crisis is concentrated based on oil and gas sector dependency, which is a dilemma for Norges Bank’s monetary policymaking.

The central bank must decide whether it is appropriate to lower interest rates as it may not have much influence on an industry which must continue with a cost-cutting programme in a protracted period of low oil prices.

One concern relates to the housing market which is still bubbling along in parts of the country away from the oil industry, in Oslo especially. Indeed, with personal credit risks rising as debts accumulate, the Bank remains in a quandary over whether to continue lowering borrowing rates in spite of handing greater control of these risks to other authorities.



Industrial Unemploy- Consumer Consumer Manufac- Current Current General

Production ment Rate Prices Prices turing Account Account Govt

(% of labour (national (CPI-ATE Earnings Balance Balance Balance

force) index, index, (annual (% of GDP) (% of GDP)

headline underlying total,

rate) rate) Nkr bn)

Danske Bank na 4.2 2.2 na na na na naDNB Markets na 4.3 2.0 2.6 na na na naDZ Bank na na na na na na 7.5 8.0Econ Intelligence Unit -0.7 4.4 1.7 na 3.6 204.3 6.5 4.3Handelsbanken na 4.2 2.5 na na na na naIHS Economics 0.0 4.5 2.0 na na na 6.4 6.5Nykredit na 4.2 2.3 na na na 8.2 8.7Oxford Economics -0.5 4.4 2.1 na 3.7 239.6 7.6 6.0SEB na 4.3 2.0 2.6 2.8 na na naStatistics Norway na 4.4 2.1 2.6 na 200.5 6.5 naSwedbank First Securities -0.4 4.7 2.2 2.7 2.6 234.5 7.4 7.2Unicredit Bank na 4.1 2.1 2.5 na na na na Consensus (Mean Average) -0.4 4.3 2.1 2.6 3.2 219.7 7.2 6.8Last Month -0.7 4.2 2.1 2.5 3.1 210.5 6.9 6.72 Months Ago -0.7 4.2 2.1 2.5 3.1 217.4 7.0 6.8

Median -0.5 4.3 2.1 2.6 3.2 219.4 7.4 6.9High 0.0 4.7 2.5 2.7 3.7 239.6 8.2 8.7Low -0.7 4.1 1.7 2.5 2.6 200.5 6.4 4.3Standard Deviation 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 20.2 0.7 1.6Number of Forecasts 4 11 11 5 4 4 7 6

Other ForecastsFinance Ministry (May '15) na 4.0 2.1 2.6 na na 7.7 6.3Norges Bank (June '15) na 4.3 2.0 2.3 na na na naEC (May '15) na 3.1 na na na na 9.2 9.4IMF (April '15) na 3.8 2.3 na na na 7.6 naOECD (June '15) na 4.1 2.1 na na na 6.9 6.4

Panellists



Norway: 2015 ForecastsOther Indicators

Norway: Historical Data (% change year-on-year) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014GDP, total 0.6 1.0 2.7 0.7 2.2 GDP, mainland 1.8 1.9 3.8 2.3 2.2 Private Consumption 3.8 2.3 3.5 2.1 2.0Government Consumption 2.2 1.0 1.6 1.7 2.7 Gross Fixed Investment -6.6 7.4 7.6 6.8 0.6 Inventory Building (% contribution) 1.9 -0.2 -0.2 0.3 0.1 Goods & Services Exports 0.7 -0.8 1.4 -3.0 2.7 Goods & Services Imports 8.3 4.0 3.1 4.3 1.9 Net Exports (% contribution) -2.2 -1.6 -0.5 -2.6 0.4 Industrial Production -5.5 -4.3 2.7 -5.0 3.6Unemployment Rate (% of labour force) 3.6 3.3 3.2 3.5 3.5Consumer Prices, headline rate 2.4 1.2 0.8 2.1 2.0Consumer Prices, underlying rate (CPI-ATE) 1.4 0.9 1.2 1.6 2.4Manufacturing Earnings 3.6 4.5 4.4 3.6 2.6Current Account Balance (Nkr bn) 282.7 344.9 368.6 307.7 297.0 - as a % of GDP 10.9 12.4 12.4 10.0 9.4 General Govt Budget Balance (% of GDP) 11.0 13.4 13.8 11.3 9.1 Source: Eurostat, Statistics Norway



Private Govern- Gross Stock Goods & Goods & Net

Consump- ment Fixed (inventory) Services Services Exports, %

tion Consump- Invest- Building, Exports Imports contribu-


tion to GDP GDP

growth growth

Total Mainland

Danske Bank 1.8 na 1.8 2.2 1.6 0.1 1.8 3.0 naDNB Markets 1.2 1.4 2.0 2.2 -1.3 na 1.1 0.1 naDZ Bank 1.7 1.6 2.1 2.3 1.9 -0.7 3.5 2.6 0.6Econ Intelligence Unit 1.4 na 2.7 2.7 0.9 -1.1 2.1 0.8 0.6Handelsbanken 0.3 0.8 na na na na na na naIHS Economics 0.6 na 1.7 3.3 -2.8 na 1.8 1.3 naNykredit na 1.7 1.8 2.3 2.1 na na na -0.5Oxford Economics 0.7 1.5 1.4 2.3 1.1 -0.9 1.0 0.5 0.2SEB 1.4 2.0 2.3 2.3 0.4 -0.3 1.7 1.4 naStatistics Norway 1.2 1.8 1.8 2.6 0.0 0.0 1.8 2.5 0.0Swedbank First Securities 0.9 1.3 1.0 2.0 -2.3 -0.1 1.2 -0.6 0.6Unicredit Bank 1.7 2.3 2.1 2.4 1.5 0.2 2.5 1.9 0.2 Consensus (Mean Average) 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.4 0.3 -0.4 1.9 1.4 0.2Last Month 1.3 1.8 1.9 2.4 0.6 -0.2 2.2 2.0 0.22 Months Ago 1.3 1.8 1.9 2.4 0.7 -0.2 2.2 2.0 0.2

Median 1.2 1.6 1.8 2.3 0.9 -0.2 1.8 1.4 0.2High 1.8 2.3 2.7 3.3 2.1 0.2 3.5 3.0 0.6Low 0.3 0.8 1.0 2.0 -2.8 -1.1 1.0 -0.6 -0.5Standard Deviation 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 1.7 0.5 0.7 1.2 0.4Number of Forecasts 11 9 11 11 11 8 10 10 7

Other Forecasts Finance Ministry (May '15) 1.5 2.0 na na na na na na naNorges Bank (June '15) 1.3 1.5 1.8 na na na na 2.3 naEC (May '15) 1.6 na 1.3 3.2 0.2 0.0 3.3 2.9 0.4IMF (April '15) 1.5 na na na na na na na naOECD (June '15) 1.5 2.1 1.9 2.4 0.5 -0.1 2.2 1.6 0.3

Panellists

Productaverage % change from previous year


National Accounts(constant prices)

Gross

Domestic

Norway: 2016 Forecasts

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4


Norway 2015 GDP Growth Forecasts% change, year-on-year

Source: MJEconomics

2015 2016

Government: Conservative-Progress Party coalitionNext Election: 2017 (parliamentary)Capital City: Oslo (GMT +1 hour)Currency: Norwegian Krone (free float)

Nominal GDP: $513 bnPopulation: 5.1m

Economic Freedom: 32nd out of 178 countries Doing Business: 6th out of 189 countries Competitiveness: 11th out of 144 countries Corruption: 5th out of 175 countriesGovernment Debt: 26.4% of GDPCorporate Tax Rate: 27.0%


Norway: Background Information



Industrial Unemploy- Consumer Consumer Manufac- Current Current General

Production ment Rate Prices Prices turing Account Account Govt

(% of labour (national (CPI-ATE Earnings Balance Balance Balance

force) index, index, (annual (% of GDP) (% of GDP)

headline underlying total,

rate) rate) Nkr bn)

Danske Bank na 4.2 2.0 na na na na naDNB Markets na 4.6 2.1 2.1 na na na naDZ Bank na na na na na na 9.0 9.0Econ Intelligence Unit -1.0 4.3 2.0 na 4.1 340.5 10.2 6.3Handelsbanken na 4.4 2.0 na na na na naIHS Economics 0.9 5.0 2.0 na na na 6.8 6.3Nykredit na 4.4 2.1 na na na 7.9 8.4Oxford Economics -2.7 4.7 2.5 na 2.4 230.3 7.1 5.4SEB na 4.5 2.3 2.3 2.7 na na naStatistics Norway na 4.6 2.9 2.5 na 158.8 5.1 naSwedbank First Securities 0.5 5.6 2.9 2.8 2.5 232.9 7.2 7.0Unicredit Bank na 4.1 2.2 2.4 na na na na Consensus (Mean Average) -0.6 4.6 2.3 2.4 2.9 240.6 7.6 7.1Last Month -0.5 4.3 2.0 2.0 3.1 261.4 7.9 7.22 Months Ago -0.5 4.3 2.0 2.0 3.1 269.5 8.0 7.2

Median -0.3 4.5 2.1 2.4 2.6 231.6 7.2 6.7High 0.9 5.6 2.9 2.8 4.1 340.5 10.2 9.0Low -2.7 4.1 2.0 2.1 2.4 158.8 5.1 5.4Standard Deviation 1.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.8 74.9 1.6 1.4Number of Forecasts 4 11 11 5 4 4 7 6

Other ForecastsFinance Ministry (May '15) na 4.1 na na na na na naNorges Bank (June '15) na 4.3 2.3 2.3 na na na naEC (May '15) na 3.6 na na na na 9.3 8.3IMF (April '15) na 3.9 2.2 na na na 7.0 naOECD (June '15) na 4.2 2.2 na na na 6.9 6.3

Panellists



Other Indicators

Norway: 2016 Forecasts

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0


Norway: Unemployment Rate% of labour force

Source: Statistics Norway

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Jan'09

Jul Jan'10

Jul Jan'11

Jul Jan'12

Jul Jan'13

Jul Jan'14

Jul Jan'15

Jul

Norway: Underlying Inflation Rate (CPI-ATE)% change, year-on-year

Source: Statistics Norway








growth

Confed of Swe Enterprise 2.9 3.2 1.3 3.5 0.1 4.6 4.7 0.1Danske Bank 2.3 2.0 1.6 5.3 0.1 3.8 4.9 -0.3DNB Markets 2.8 2.1 2.2 3.1 na 3.1 2.1 naDZ Bank 2.5 2.2 1.4 4.3 0.8 3.6 4.3 -0.2Econ Intelligence Unit 2.8 2.1 1.7 3.7 -0.1 4.4 4.1 0.0Handelsbanken 2.8 2.2 1.9 3.6 na 2.9 2.1 0.4IHS Economics 3.0 2.0 1.6 4.8 na 3.0 1.5 naMorgan Stanley 2.8 1.9 1.9 3.7 0.0 3.5 2.4 0.6National Institute - KI 2.7 2.3 1.9 3.9 -0.1 3.5 3.0 0.3Nykredit 2.5 2.2 1.6 4.9 na na na -0.1Oxford Economics 2.7 2.1 2.0 3.3 0.1 3.1 2.4 0.4SEB 3.0 2.5 2.0 7.0 0.0 4.1 5.3 naUniCredit Bank 2.5 2.8 1.7 3.8 0.0 3.6 4.2 -0.1

Consensus (Mean Average) 2.7 2.3 1.8 4.2 0.1 3.6 3.4 0.1Last Month 2.7 2.4 1.6 4.7 0.1 4.0 4.5 0.02 Months Ago 2.6 2.4 1.6 4.8 0.1 4.1 4.8 -0.1


Other ForecastsFinance Ministry (June '15) 2.4 2.4 1.9 4.1 0.1 na na 0.0Riksbank (September '15) 2.8 2.2 2.3 4.3 0.0 3.8 2.9 0.5EC (May '15) 2.8 2.6 1.8 4.1 -0.1 4.1 4.7 -0.1IMF (April '15) 2.7 na na na na na na naOECD (June '15) 2.8 2.5 1.8 5.4 -0.1 4.6 5.2 na


Panellists


Sweden: 2015 ForecastsNational Accounts

Sweden’s very open economy and favourable policy mix continue to put it at the forefront of the Nordic economies, especially since real GDP rose by 1% q/q in Q2 2015 and by 2.9% y/y.

Although the flow of monthly data releases continues to show some volatility in key indicators, broadly-speaking the economy is enjoying solid export growth and robust consumer spending. The latter, underpinned by negligible inflation and very low borrowing rates, is also fuelling the same concerns about a housing market and credit boom which is not being adequately mitigated.

Although there are also clearly risks to Sweden’s strong growth continuing, with inflation low the Riksbank seems in no mood to reverse its monetary policy expansion until its 2% target is on course to being met, which will provide some stimulus.

A slowdown in China and the emerging markets would be a problem, but thus far business confidence is still rising. Sweden’s economic sentiment indicator climbed back up to 106.5 in August, the level it was at in February, mostly because of soaring confidence within the booming services sector.



Industrial Unemploy- Consumer Consumer Producer Hourly Current Current General

Prodn ment Rate Prices Prices Prices Earnings Account Account Govt

(mining & (% of (national (CPIF (total (total Balance Balance Balance

manufac.) labour index, index, industry) industry) (annual (% of GDP) (% of GDP)

force) headline underlying total,

rate) rate) Skr bn)

Confed of Swe Enterprise na 7.5 0.7 1.4 na na na na naDanske Bank na 7.8 0.2 na na 2.8 220.7 5.4 -1.8DNB Markets na 7.6 na 1.0 na 2.5 na na naDZ Bank na na na na na na na 5.5 -1.2Econ Intelligence Unit -0.3 7.6 0.1 na 1.8 1.6 332.8 8.1 -1.2Handelsbanken na 7.6 0.1 1.0 na na na na naIHS Economics 1.1 7.6 0.0 na na na na 5.8 -0.8Morgan Stanley na 7.7 0.2 1.0 na na 273.1 6.5 -1.7National Institute - KI 1.5 7.7 0.1 0.9 na 2.5 293.8 7.2 -1.5Nykredit na 7.6 0.0 na na na na 5.8 -1.3Oxford Economics 1.5 7.6 0.0 na 1.3 na 252.8 6.2 -1.9SEB na 7.5 0.1 0.9 na 2.6 na 7.3 -1.4UniCredit Bank na 7.6 0.1 0.9 na na na 6.0 -1.3

Consensus (Mean Average) 1.0 7.6 0.1 1.0 1.6 2.4 274.6 6.4 -1.4Last Month 0.9 7.6 0.2 1.1 1.9 2.5 259.8 6.0 -1.52 Months Ago 0.9 7.6 0.2 1.0 1.8 2.5 242.3 5.8 -1.5

Median 1.3 7.6 0.1 1.0 1.6 2.5 273.1 6.1 -1.4High 1.5 7.8 0.7 1.4 1.8 2.8 332.8 8.1 -0.8Low -0.3 7.5 0.0 0.9 1.3 1.6 220.7 5.4 -1.9Standard Deviation 0.9 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 42.2 0.9 0.3Number of Forecasts 4 12 11 7 2 5 5 10 10

Other ForecastsFinance Ministry (June '15) na 7.6 -0.1 na na na na na -1.3Riksbank (September '15) na 7.6 0.0 0.9 na 2.6 na 6.7 -1.4EC (May '15) na 7.7 na na na na na 5.8 -1.5IMF (April '15) na 7.7 0.2 na na na na 6.3 naOECD (June '15) na 7.7 0.2 na na na na 6.5 -1.2


Panellists


Sweden: 2015 ForecastsOther Indicators

Sweden: Historical Data (% change year-on-year) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Gross Domestic Product 6.0 2.7 -0.3 1.3 2.3Private Consumption 3.9 1.9 0.8 1.9 2.4Government Consumption 1.3 0.8 1.1 0.7 2.0Gross Fixed Investment 6.0 5.7 -0.2 -0.4 6.6Inventory Building (% contribution) 2.1 0.5 -1.1 0.0 0.1Goods & Services Exports 11.9 6.1 1.0 -0.2 3.5Goods & Services Imports 12.8 7.3 0.5 -0.7 6.5Net Exports (% contribution) 0.3 -0.2 0.2 0.2 -1.0Industrial Production 8.7 3.0 -3.2 -4.3 -1.7Unemployment Rate (% of labour force) 8.4 7.5 8.0 8.0 7.9Consumer Prices (headline rate) 1.3 3.0 0.9 0.0 -0.2Consumer Prices (underlying rate, CPIF) 2.0 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.5Producer Prices 1.0 0.4 -0.9 -2.8 1.8Labour Costs (mining and manufacturing) 2.6 2.7 3.2 2.6 3.0Current Account Balance (Skr bn) 211.6 212.5 212.4 275.8 244.9 - as a % of GDP 6.0 5.8 5.8 7.3 6.3General Govt Budget Balance (% of GDP) 0.0 -0.1 -0.9 -1.4 -1.9Source: Eurostat, Statistics Sweden








growth

Confed of Swe Enterprise na na na na na na na naDanske Bank 2.3 2.0 1.1 3.6 0.0 5.3 5.2 0.2DNB Markets 2.3 2.4 1.7 3.3 na 3.1 3.4 naDZ Bank 2.6 2.4 0.8 3.8 -0.4 4.4 4.1 0.3Econ Intelligence Unit 2.9 2.5 1.3 4.1 0.0 6.4 5.1 0.3Handelsbanken 3.1 2.8 1.8 5.3 na 3.7 3.7 0.1IHS Economics 2.2 1.8 1.4 3.7 na 2.8 3.1 naMorgan Stanley 3.2 2.2 1.3 5.1 0.0 6.1 5.1 0.6National Institute - KI 2.8 3.1 2.2 5.0 -0.1 4.1 5.1 -0.2Nykredit 2.9 1.7 1.4 6.0 na na na 0.3Oxford Economics 2.9 3.0 1.5 5.9 0.3 4.0 5.8 -0.6SEB 2.8 2.6 1.5 6.5 0.1 4.9 6.2 naUniCredit Bank 3.0 3.4 1.4 3.8 -0.1 5.0 4.8 0.0

Consensus (Mean Average) 2.8 2.5 1.5 4.7 0.0 4.5 4.7 0.1Last Month 2.7 2.5 1.3 4.6 0.0 4.9 5.1 0.22 Months Ago 2.7 2.5 1.3 4.5 0.0 5.0 5.2 0.2


Other ForecastsFinance Ministry (June '15) 2.5 2.8 1.6 3.4 0.0 na na 0.3Riksbank (September '15) 3.2 3.0 2.8 5.9 0.0 5.4 6.2 -0.1EC (May '15) 2.8 2.6 1.7 4.5 0.0 5.3 5.6 0.1IMF (April '15) 2.8 na na na na na na naOECD (June '15) 3.0 2.7 1.7 5.2 0.0 4.7 4.9 na


Panellists


Sweden: 2016 ForecastsNational Accounts

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9


Sweden 2015 GDP Growth Forecasts% change, year-on-year

Source: MJEconomics

2015 2016

Government: Social Democratic-Green coalitionNext Election: By September 2018 (parliamentary)Capital City: Stockholm (GMT + 1 hour)Currency: Swedish Krona (free float)


Economic Freedom: 20th out of 178 countries Doing Business: 11th out of 189 countries Competitiveness: 10th out of 144 countries Corruption: 4th out of 175 countriesGovernment Debt: 43.9% of GDPCorporate Tax Rate: 22.0%


Sweden: Background Information



Industrial Unemploy- Consumer Consumer Producer Hourly Current Current General

Prodn ment Rate Prices Prices Prices Earnings Account Account Govt

(mining & (% of (national (CPIF (total (total Balance Balance Balance

manufac.) labour index, index, industry) industry) (annual (% of GDP) (% of GDP)

force) headline underlying total,

rate) rate) Skr bn)

Confed of Swe Enterprise na na na na na na na na naDanske Bank na 7.6 1.5 na na 2.5 228.3 5.4 -0.9DNB Markets na 7.5 na 1.8 na 3.0 na na naDZ Bank na na na na na na na 5.3 -0.7Econ Intelligence Unit 2.0 7.2 1.4 na 2.1 2.1 294.9 7.3 -0.7Handelsbanken na 7.1 1.7 1.8 na na na na naIHS Economics 1.3 7.3 0.9 na na na na 5.6 -0.3Morgan Stanley na 7.4 1.5 1.6 na na 333.4 7.7 -0.9National Institute - KI 3.7 7.5 1.0 1.6 na 3.0 296.3 6.9 -1.0Nykredit na 7.3 1.5 na na na na 6.1 -0.5Oxford Economics 2.9 7.1 1.7 na 2.1 na 206.4 4.8 -1.2SEB na 7.3 1.1 1.6 na 3.0 na 6.5 -0.8UniCredit Bank na 7.4 1.4 1.5 na na na 6.0 -0.5

Consensus (Mean Average) 2.5 7.3 1.4 1.7 2.1 2.7 271.9 6.2 -0.8Last Month 2.9 7.3 1.4 1.6 2.5 2.7 256.7 5.9 -0.72 Months Ago 2.9 7.3 1.4 1.6 2.6 2.7 245.0 5.7 -0.7

Median 2.5 7.3 1.5 1.6 2.1 3.0 294.9 6.1 -0.8High 3.7 7.6 1.7 1.8 2.1 3.0 333.4 7.7 -0.3Low 1.3 7.1 0.9 1.5 2.1 2.1 206.4 4.8 -1.2Standard Deviation 1.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 52.7 0.9 0.3Number of Forecasts 4 11 10 6 2 5 5 10 10

Other ForecastsFinance Ministry (June '15) na 7.2 0.9 na na na na na -1.0Riksbank (September '15) na 7.2 1.8 2.0 na 3.2 na 6.2 -0.8EC (May '15) na 7.6 na na na na na 5.6 -1.0IMF (April '15) na 7.6 1.1 na na na na 6.3 naOECD (June '15) na 7.6 1.4 na na na na 6.3 -0.5


Panellists


Sweden: 2016 ForecastsOther Indicators

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0


Sweden: Unemployment Rate% of labour force

Source: Statistics Sweden

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

Jan'09

Jul Jan'10

Jul Jan'11

Jul Jan'12

Jul Jan'13

Jul Jan'14

Jul Jan'15

Sweden: Inflation Rate% change, year-on-year

Source: Statistics Sweden



GDP Growth 2014 2015 2016CBoI 1.9 4.2 3.0EC 1.9 2.8 2.5IMF 1.8 3.5 3.2OECD 1.9 3.7 2.9SI 1.9 3.8 3.2

Private Consumption 2014 2015 2016CBoI 3.7 4.2 4.6EC 3.7 3.5 3.0IMF na na naOECD 3.7 3.9 2.8SI 3.7 3.8 3.3

Fixed Investment 2014 2015 2016CBoI 13.7 22.5 8.0EC 13.7 12.0 9.0IMF na na naOECD 13.7 13.4 14.5SI 13.7 18.1 16.3

Export Volume 2014 2015 2016CBoI 3.1 6.8 3.6EC 3.1 4.7 5.5IMF na na naOECD 3.1 3.9 3.2SI 3.1 5.3 3.5

Import Volume 2014 2015 2016CBoI 9.9 12.4 6.6EC 9.9 8.3 7.9IMF na na naOECD 9.9 7.6 6.7SI 9.9 9.8 7.8

Consumer Price Inflation 2014 2015 2016CBoI 2.0 2.2 4.3EC 2.0 1.5 2.7IMF 2.0 0.9 2.1OECD 2.0 1.6 3.8SI 2.0 1.7 3.0

Current Acc. (% of GDP) 2014 2015 2016CBoI 4.2 3.2 2.5EC 3.6 2.0 0.4IMF na na naOECD 3.6 3.1 2.4SI 3.6 2.0 0.4

Budget Balance (% of GDP) 2014 2015 2016CBoI na na naEC -0.2 0.0 -0.3IMF na na naOECD -0.2 0.2 0.5SI na na na

Sources:Central Bank of Iceland, August 2015European Commission, May 2015IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2015OECD, Economic Outlook, June 2015Statistics Iceland, April 2015

Iceland Forecasts% change, year-on-year, unless otherwise stated

Iceland Snapshot

GDP growth quickened during Q2 2015 signalling the recovery is on track and the latest projections from Sedlabanki Islands, Iceland’s central bank now show 4.2% real GDP growth for 2015, before the expansion slows to a 3% pace in 2016. This should further improve the fiscal balance following a narrowing of the general government deficit to 0.1% of GDP last year from 1.9% in 2013.

The current account meanwhile is now in surplus, exports and investment are strong, and tourism is booming again. However, inflation pressure, sparked by high wage demands is a concern for the authorities, especially since the central bank has had to raise borrowing rates twice already (in June and again in August) and has yet to relinquish capital controls.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Jan '09 Jan '10 Jan '11 Jan '12 Jan '13 Jan '14 Jan '15

Iceland: Inflation Rate% change, year-on-yearSource: Statistics Iceland

Government: Progressive Party led coalitionNext Election: By June 2016 (presidential)Capital City: Reykjavic (GMT time)Currency: Icelandic Krona (capital controls)


Economic Freedom: 23rd out of 178 countries Doing Business: 12th out of 189 countries Competitiveness: 30th out of 144 countries Corruption: 12th out of 175 countriesGovernment Debt: 86.4% of GDPCorporate Tax Rate: 20.0%


Iceland: Background Information



3-month Danish CIBOR Rate, % 10 Year Danish Govt Bond Yield, %

Rate on Survey Date: -0.01 Rate on Survey Date: 0.94

2015 2016 2015 2016Mean Average -0.21 0.07 Mean Average 0.85 1.29High -0.20 0.10 High 1.09 1.77Low -0.21 0.03 Low 0.60 0.80Standard Deviation 0.01 0.05 Standard Deviation 0.35 0.69

3-month Euro Area EURIBOR Rate, % 10 Year Finnish Govt Bond Yield, %


2015 2016 2015 2016Mean Average 0.00 0.05 Mean Average 1.01 1.77High 0.10 0.30 High 1.32 1.97Low -0.05 -0.05 Low 0.70 1.25Standard Deviation 0.04 0.10 Standard Deviation 0.27 0.35

3-month Norwegian NIBOR Rate, % 10 Year Norwegian Govt Bond Yield, %

Rate on Survey Date: 1.19 Rate on Survey Date: 1.57

2015 2016 2015 2016Mean Average 1.08 1.10 Mean Average 1.80 2.10High 1.30 1.35 High 2.50 2.90Low 0.92 0.75 Low 1.47 1.64Standard Deviation 0.14 0.24 Standard Deviation 0.48 0.57

3-month Swedish STIBOR Rate, % 10 Year Swedish Govt Bond Yield, %


2015 2016 2015 2016Mean Average -0.24 0.27 Mean Average 1.09 1.91High -0.10 0.70 High 1.30 2.10Low -0.35 -0.02 Low 0.90 1.80Standard Deviation 0.11 0.35 Standard Deviation 0.16 0.14

Interest Rate Forecasts

Oil Prices, Brent Blent, US$ per barrel

Price on Survey Date: 46.6

2015 2016Mean Average 52.0 58.4High 55.3 65.0Low 44.0 52.5Standard Deviation 3.5 3.9

Notes: The consensus (mean average) is based onresponses from panellists in our Nordic Barometersurvey and those in our companion publication, theEuro Zone Barometer. Forecasts are for end period.

Oil Price Forecasts

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

03/01/06 03/01/08 03/01/10 03/01/12 03/01/14

Oil Price TrendBrent Blend, US$ per barrel

Source: FT



Danish Krone/Euro Exchange Rate

Rate on Survey Date: 7.461

2015 2016Mean Average 7.403 7.487

High 7.460 7.580

Low 7.242 7.453

Standard Deviation 0.107 0.062

US Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate


2015 2016Mean Average 1.077 1.070

High 1.130 1.150

Low 1.020 0.992


Norwegian Krone/Euro Exchange Rate


2015 2016Mean Average 9.153 8.835

High 9.500 9.160

Low 8.464 8.445


Swedish Krona/Euro Exchange Rate


2015 2016Mean Average 9.319 9.140

High 9.650 9.800

Low 8.998 8.600


Icelandic Krona/Euro Exchange Rate


2015 2016Mean Average 147.5 144.8

High 148.2 146.9

Low 146.7 142.7


Exchange Rate Forecasts

7.43

7.44

7.45

7.46

7.47

Jan '11 Jul Jan '12 Jul Jan '13 Jul Jan '14 Jul Jan '15 Jul

Dkr vs Euroend period, Source: FT

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50


US$ vs Euroend period, Source: FT

7.00

7.40

7.80

8.20

8.60

9.00

9.40


Nkr vs Euroend period, Source: FT

8.00

8.40

8.80

9.20

9.60


Skr vs Euroend period, Source: FT

146150154158162166170174


Isk vs Euroend period, Source: FT



Remain UNCHANGED? 100%INCREASE? 0%Likely increase? naDECREASE? 0%Likely decrease? na



Remain UNCHANGED? 50%INCREASE? 0%Likely increase? naDECREASE? 50%Likely decrease? 25bps

Remain UNCHANGED? 80%INCREASE? 0%Likely increase? naDECREASE? 20%Likely decrease? 15bps

now and our next survey the

EURO AREA POLICY RATE will:

SWEDISH POLICY RATE will:

Share of respondents anticipating that between


NORWEGIAN POLICY RATE will:

Share of respondents anticipating that betweennow and our next survey theDANISH LENDING RATE will:



DANISH POLICY RATE will:



The Nordic Barometer Monthly

Qualitative Interest Rate Poll


Central Bank Watch

Our Norwegian panellists are evenly split between expecting Norges Bank to lower its policy interest rate to support the economy, and those who believe it may hold fire until a clearer picture emerges of how the negative oil shock is affecting the economy.

Swedish experts are even less certain their own central bank, the Riksbank, will act, presumably in the belief it will follow the ECB’s lead by pursuing its asset-purchase (quantitative-easing) programme alongside other types of monetary expansion measures (some to act as mere signalling mechanisms), to weaken the krona and ensure inflation moves in line with the target.

Denmark: Danmarks Nationalbank

The Most Recent Interest Rate Changes

February 5th, 2015A reduction in the certificates of deposit rate

are unchanged at 0.00%, and the lending rate is

from -0.50% to -0.75% with effect from February 6th.The discount rate and current-account rate

July 1st, 2015

unchanged at 0.05%.

Finland: European Central BankSeptember 4th, 2014

A reduction in the repo rate from 0.15% to 0.05%

Norway: Norges BankJune 18th, 2015

A reduction in the sight deposit rate from 1.25%

with effect from September 10th.

A reduction in the repo rate from -0.25% to -0.35%with effect from July 8th.

to 1.00% with effect from June 19th.

Sweden: Sveriges Riksbank

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

Jan'09

Jul Jan'10

Jul Jan'11

Jul Jan'12

Jul Jan'13

Jul Jan'14

Jul Jan'15

Jul

Short Term Interest Rate Spreads vs Eurothree month interbank rates, % p.a.

Source: various central banks

Den Nor Swe



Denmark(% change year-on-year, unless otherwise stated) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Gross Domestic Product 1.1 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.9 1.8Private Consumption 0.6 2.0 1.9 1.5 1.7 1.6Gross Fixed Investment 3.7 2.2 4.1 2.3 2.7 2.8Unemployment Rate (% of labour force) 5.1 4.6 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.4Consumer Prices 0.6 0.6 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.8Current Account (annual tota l , Dkr bn) 121.8 127.7 128.0 127.7 149.4 156.4Current Account (% of GDP) 6.3 6.9 6.7 6.0 6.4 6.4

(end period) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20193 Month Interest Rate, % per annum 0.28 -0.21 0.07 0.30 0.74 0.9810 Year Bond Yield, % per annum 0.84 0.85 1.29 1.68 1.95 2.36Yield Differential 0.56 1.06 1.22 1.38 1.21 1.38Dkr per Euro Exchange Rate 7.446 7.456 7.456 7.457 7.456 7.456

Finland(% change year-on-year, unless otherwise stated) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Gross Domestic Product -0.4 0.1 1.2 1.8 2.1 2.1Private Consumption 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.5 1.6 1.7Gross Fixed Investment -3.3 -2.4 2.1 3.1 3.0 3.0Industrial Production -2.1 -0.9 2.1 3.3 3.3 3.2Unemployment Rate (% of labour force) 8.7 9.3 9.2 8.3 8.0 7.8Consumer Prices 1.0 0.1 1.0 1.6 1.7 1.8Current Account (annual tota l , Euros bn) -3.8 -1.6 -1.0 -0.6 0.1 0.5Current Account (% of GDP) -1.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.2

(end period) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20193 Month Interest Rate, % per annum 0.08 0.00 0.05 0.42 1.23 1.6810 Year Bond Yield, % per annum 0.65 1.01 1.77 2.77 3.47 3.57Yield Differential 0.57 1.01 1.72 2.35 2.23 1.88US$ per Euro Exchange Rate 1.210 1.077 1.070 1.121 1.175 1.207

Norway(% change year-on-year, unless otherwise stated) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Gross Domestic Product, total 2.2 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.0Private Consumption 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.3 2.4 2.6Gross Fixed Investment 0.6 -3.5 0.3 1.4 2.2 3.1Industrial Production 3.6 -0.4 -0.6 0.4 0.8 1.0Unemployment Rate (% of labour force) 3.5 4.3 4.6 4.2 4.1 4.0Consumer Prices 2.0 2.1 2.3 1.9 1.9 2.3Current Account (annual tota l , Nkr bn) 297.0 219.7 240.6 305.3 325.1 326.6Current Account (% of GDP) 9.4 7.2 7.6 8.5 8.7 8.9

(end period) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20193 Month Interest Rate, % per annum 1.48 1.08 1.10 1.35 1.92 2.8510 Year Bond Yield, % per annum 1.55 1.80 2.10 2.70 3.43 3.85Yield Differential 0.07 0.72 1.00 1.35 1.51 1.00Nkr per Euro Exchange Rate 9.072 9.153 8.835 8.349 8.302 8.294

Sweden(% change year-on-year, unless otherwise stated) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Gross Domestic Product 2.3 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.2 2.1Private Consumption 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.9Gross Fixed Investment 6.6 4.2 4.7 4.0 3.3 2.8Industrial Production -1.7 1.0 2.5 2.9 2.9 2.6Unemployment Rate (% of labour force) 7.9 7.6 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.6Consumer Prices -0.2 0.1 1.4 2.3 2.6 2.4Current Account (annual tota l , Skr bn) 244.9 274.6 271.9 242.5 247.3 259.3Current Account (% of GDP) 6.3 6.4 6.2 5.4 5.4 5.4

(end period) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20193 Month Interest Rate, % per annum 0.26 -0.24 0.27 1.08 1.98 2.6810 Year Bond Yield, % per annum 0.94 1.09 1.91 2.55 3.31 3.89Yield Differential 0.68 1.33 1.64 1.47 1.34 1.21Skr per Euro Exchange Rate 9.473 9.319 9.140 8.985 8.818 8.595Note: forecasts = consensus (mean average).

Long Term ForecastsForecasts for 2017 to 2019 are taken from our July 2015 specia l long term forecasts survey.



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Documents

Contents · September 14, 2015 NORDIC BAROMETER Consumer Price Inflation 2 | (% change year-on-year, unless otherwise stated) 2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f Gross Domestic Product 0.6