Contents

List of Figures

List of Tables . xiii

Preface.

PART I. MAN'SPLACEIN THE BIOSPHERE

Chapter 1. Environmental Properties and Processes :

A. PerspectiveB. Key Processes in the Biosphere.C. Man's Use of the Environment.

D. Man's Role within the Biosphere

Chapter 2. The Role of Science in Environmental PolicyA. Steps Towards a PolicyB. The Recognition of ProblemsC. The Evaluation of Problems.D. Information and Communication Problems.

PART II. THE MID-TERMPROGRAMMEOF SCOPEAND THEENVIRONMENTALACTIVITIESOF ICSU

Chapter 3. Environmental ConcernsA. Introduction.

B. Biogeochemical Cycles.1. Introduction.

2. Nitrogen, phosphorus, and sulphur .

a. Man and biogeochemical cycles: impacts and problemsb. Flow charts for nitrogen, phosphorus, and sulphur .c. Nitrogen flow chart and comments.

d. Implications of man's activity for the nitrogen cyclee. The nitrogen cycle: trends.f. Phosphorus: flow chart and comments.g. Phosphorus: implications of man's activityh. Phosphorus: future trends.i. Sulphur: flow chart and comments

j. Sulphur: first global budget

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k. Sulphur: second global budget1. A regional sulphur budget for Northwest Europem. Sulphur: trends and implicationsn. Further research on nitrogen, phosphorus, and sulphur

cycles3. Carbon.

C. Climate.1. Introduction.

2. World climate: past and present.a. Types of climatic data.b. Some properties of climatic data.c. The natural variability of climate.d. Man's impact on climate

3. The prediction of climate.a. Statistical correlations.b. Numerical models

4. Some current research activities.a. Introduction.

b. The Sahelian droughtc. Stratospheric ozone.d. The carbon dioxide problem.

5. The impact of climate on manD. Pollutants in the Environment.

1. Background2. The concepts of ecotoxicology .

a. Amounts manufactured and releasedb. Persistence in the environment

c. Transport in the environment.d. Metabolism in the receptor.e. Dose-effect relations.

f. Assessment of environmental impactg. Analysis.

E. Ecosystem Processes1. The analysis and modelling of successional change.

a. Present concepts regarding ecological successionb. Methods available for modelling and predicting successional

patterns.c. Application to management of natural and near-natural

ecological systemsd. Conclusions and recommendations.

2. Irrigation and drainage of arid lands.a. Irrigation and world food.b. Physical water efficiency in crop production.c. Water and salt balance in the root zone.

d. Other impacts.e. Conclusions and recommendations.

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Chapter 4. Environmental Management.A. Problem Identification and Monitoring

1. Introduction.2. Problem detection

3. Monitoring.

a. The present interest in monitoring.b. A definition of monitoring.c. Criteria of approach to monitoring.d. The role of monitoring in environmental protectione. Conclusion.

B. Modelling.1. Introduction.

2. Purposes of environmental modelling.3. Decision-maker's outlook4. The model builder's outlook.

5. The gaps.6. Environmental simulation models

7. The potential for environmental systems analysis and modelbuilding.

8. Bridging the gaps.a. Scientist to decision-maker.b. Scientist to scientist.

c. Gaming.d. Handling uncertaintye. Validation and credibility.

9. Steps toward improvementC. Risk Estimation.

1. Concepts2. Example of risk estimates.3. The future of risk estimation.

D. Evaluation and Communication.

E. Standard Setting1. Introduction.

2. Standards and criteria for human habitationsa. Backgroundb. Existing standards and criteriac. Evaluation and rationale

d. The emergence of policye. Conclusion.

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Chapter 5. Activities of the International Council of Scientific Unions (lCSU) 140

PART III. THE FUTURE

Chapter 6. A Forward Look.A. General Perspectives

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B. Man and Environment. . . . . . .

C. Actions in the Future. . . . . . .

D. Specific Actions. . . . . . . . .

E. Responsibilities of the Scientific Community.

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AppendixesAppendix AAppendix BAppendix C

Appendix D

Literature cited . 155

Activities of lCSU unions and associated scientific groups. 170Steering Committee and Project Chairmen in the SCOPE

Mid-term Programme . 197Methyl mercury: critical groups and sources of intake. . 199

Index. . 215

List of Figures

1. Matrix classification of environmental issues. 32

2. The global nitrogen cycle 40

3. Preliminary global phosphorus flow chart. 44

4. The first global sulphur cycle. 47

5. The second global atmospheric sulphur cycle. 51

6. Diagrammatic model of the global carbon cycle. 56

7. Annual production of CO2 from fossil fuels and cement. 57

8. Correlation of meteorological observations 60

9. Schematic illustration of the coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-land surface-biomass climatic system. 65

10. Carbon dioxide concentration 72

11. Three models of the mechanisms producing the sequence of species insuccession 84

12. A schematic representation of the role of ecologists in producingecosystem models and in giving advice for management purposes. 88

13. Model of the irrigation return flow system 93

14. The distribution and movement of water in the ground 94

15. Matrix showing the phases and activities occurring in environmentalproblem-solving 107

16. Environmental problem-solving model. 107

17. Aquatic food chain for mercury and methyl mercury. . 200

List of Tables

1.

2.

Global inventories of nitrogen.

Sulphur budget for Northwest Europe.

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3. Chronology of recognition and response related to the problems posed byhalocarbons . . 111

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5.

Comparative risks, outlays, and implicit life valuations.

A structure for risk assessmE;nt.

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