CONTEMPORARY ISSUES AND VALUES IN ASIA

Colin Brown

CONTEMPORARY ISSUES AND VALUES IN ASIA

• Not terrorism, not separatism, not religious fundamentalism

• But the rise of China• What would a China-dominated region

and world look like?

Rise of China

• Not military strength, but economic• Chinese navy: South China Sea, southern

Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean• In support of Chinese territorial claims in the

South China Sea

Rise of China

• Competition between China and United States

• Hilary Clinton: US prepared to facilitate multilateral discussions on disputed territories in South China Sea.

Rise of China

... a bold move designed to redirect Beijing away from the more aggressive stance it had adopted over the dispute in recent months. But it also marked a shift for a US that has traditionally sought to avoid taking a stance on East Asian sovereignty disputes.

Richard Weitz, “Why US made Hanoi Move”, The Diplomat, 18 August 2010 at http://the-diplomat.com/2010/08/18/why-us-made-hanoi-move/, accessed 5 September 2010

Rise of China

As the region’s most powerful country, the Chinese have sought to enforce their preferences on China’s weaker neighbours, ideally by dividing them and dealing with them bilaterally. Chinese officials denounced Clinton’s efforts to ‘internationalize’ the issue, with both the Chinese foreign and defence ministries criticizing her for intervening in the South China Sea dispute. Richard Weitz, “Why US made Hanoi Move”, The Diplomat, 18 August 2010 at http://the-diplomat.com/2010/08/18/why-us-made-hanoi-move/, accessed 5 September 2010

Rise of China

• Economic power• Accept it: in our immediate economic

interests to do so.• Chinalco

Rise of China

Rejection might have sparked diplomatic tension with Australia’s second-biggest export market while a green light risked angering voters who voiced concern at selling mining assets to a company whose controlling shareholder is a communist government.

Gemma Daley, ‘Rio, Chinalco Split Gives Rudd ‘Get-Out-of-Jail Card’ (Update1)’, Bloomberg.com, 5 June 2009. See http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/newws?pid=20601110&sid+away87XSjmP8#, accessed 19 June 2009

Rise of China

This has been a commercial decision reached by Rio in terms of its evaluation of the proposal put to it by Chinalco, I think it’s very important that our friends in China focus on that fact

Gemma Daley, ‘Rio, Chinalco Split Gives Rudd ‘Get-Out-of-Jail Card’ (Update1)’, Bloomberg.com, 5 June 2009. See http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/newws?pid=20601110&sid+away87XSjmP8#, accessed 19 June 2009

Rise of China

• ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement• NOT suggesting dominant China will be

malevolent China• But great powers normally use their power

(use it or lose it!)

Decline of Japan

• Built on economic power (not military)

Decline of Japan

Japan is now at a crossroads, re-evaluating its place in Asia, its relationship with the United States and what course to take at home.... For Japan, whose economy has been stagnating for more than a decade, the figures reflect a decline in economic and political power.

Martin Fackler & Hiroko Tabuchi, “Japan”, New York Times, updated 31 August 2010, in http://www.nytimes.com/info/japan/ accessed 4 September 2010

Decline of Japan

What makes Japan’s economic woes a regional security challenge is the important role of the US-Japan alliance in maintaining regional stability. If the alliance were weaker, it would have serious implications for regional stability.  

Decline of Japan

As a Japanese analyst recently observed, a US downgrading of the alliance or withdrawal from the region could well lead to faster Japanese military growth ... regional threat perceptions and a greater scope for global insecurity. David Envall, “Implications for Asia in Japan’s economic decline”, East Asia Forum, 11 August 2010, in http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2010/08/11/implications-for-asia-in-japan-economic-decline, accessed 4 September 2010

Decline of Japan

Japanese leaders describe its current approach as pursuing a more autonomous foreign policy, but the rise of China has provoked Japan to respond to the resulting geostrategic pressures in Asia.

Decline of Japan

This ‘return to Asia’ policy might resolve some of Japan’s problems associated with its dark history, but there is no guarantee that any such policy would be more repentant than chauvinistic.

David Envall, “Implications for Asia in Japan’s economic decline”, East Asia Forum, 11 August 2010, in http://www.eastasiaforum.org/010/08/11/implications-for-asia-in-japans-economic-decline/ accessed 4 September 2010

Democracy

• Robison (1987): Indonesia, the Rise of Capital

• Most revolutionary force in SE Asia: not socialism, or communism, but capitalism

• Today, most revolutionary force in SE Asia: not socialism, or communism, or capitalism, but democracy

Democracy

• Indonesia: functioning democracy• Promoting democratisation in ASEAN• Group of 20• China: village elections since 1988

Democracy

[Wen Jiabao] ... said that China should push forward not only economic restructuring but also political restructuring. Without the safeguarding of political restructuring, China may lose what it has already achieved through economic restructuring and the targets of its modernization drive might not be reached.

Democracy

Wen said people’s democratic rights and legitimate rights must be guaranteed....

Democracy

He said the problem of over-concentration of power with ineffective supervision should be solved by improving institutions. He demanded the creation of conditions to allow the people to criticize and supervise the government.

“Chinese premier calls for further reform, ideological emancipation”, GOV.cn, Chinese Government’s official web portal, 21 August 2010, at http://www.gov.cn/english/2010-08/21/content_1685351.htm accesed 5 September 2010

Democracy

The question remains ... precisely what weight should be attached to the remarks of a man near the end of his time in the politburo, who has made reformist noises in the past but never really delivered.

Peter Beaumont, “Wen Jiabao puts political reform on China’s agenda”, The Observer, 29 August 2010, at http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/aug/29/wen-jiabao-china-reform accessed 5 September 2010

Democracy

• Lesson: you can have economic progress, or democracy, but not both?

Rise of India

• Economic progress without sacrificing democratic principles

Rise of India

Jakarta Post:

The relationship between Asia’s two major regional powers -- India and Indonesia -- is moving into a splendid phase, with an unprecedented surge of interaction in various sectors, including trade, investment and culture, says India’s new ambassador. Veeramalla Anjaiah, “Indonesia-India relationship moving into splendid phase: Envoy”, The Jakarta Post, 15 August 2010, available at http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2008/08/15/indonesiaindia-relationship-moving-splendid-phase-envoy.html, accessed 27 August 2010

Conclusions (?)

• Asia coming to grips with power• What will the new Asia look like?• Still unclear• But the study of Asia more important now

than ever before.