CONSUMPTION WILL LEAD TO RESOURCE SCARCITY EVENTUALLY – WE ARE ENTERING THIS ERA NOW BUT ARE IN COMPLETE DENIAL ABOUT IT. RARE EARTH’S ARE THE FIRST INDICATION.

What are the manifestations and solutions?

Challenges traditional supply/demand economic models Requires some component of morality based decision makingRequires public policy based on avoiding the worse possible outcome

1..

The time is near (10-20 years) for the end of “cheap” fossil fuels as our energy foundation

Solutions do exist – implementation takes leadership and the ability to think big

The Public needs to become a lot more energy and climate literate in order for initiatives to succeed

Globalization and Change

Post WW II

New Players = Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey

(China + India) = 3* US

Big E or Little e

US = 5* (China+India)

Japan + Germany = 0.5*US

Japan + Germany = 0.2*USTurkey > Japan, France, Germany

Our enormously productive economy demands that we make consumption our way of life, that we convert the buying and use of goods into rituals, that we seek our spiritual satisfactions, our ego satisfactions, in consumption. The measure of social status, of social acceptance, of prestige, is now to be found in our consumptive patterns. The very meaning and significance of our lives today is expressed in consumptive terms.

sustainability

Greed

Accelerated Climate ChangeAccelerated Climate Change

CONSUMPTION

LNG Importation development

“Clean Coal” Fast Breeder

Reactors NG Fracking

(steel problem)

Fastest gateway to energy economy

Leads to Growth of GDP

Accelerates Global CO2 Deposition

Reinforces BAU –mine the planet

Economics not sustainability awareness

Ocean Gyres

Giant diffuse collection points of the plastic wasteof humanity. Takes many years for individual bottle cap to find itself here.

The WalMart Express

Cheap plastic crap here

Factor of 10 Growth in just 25 years! This is the principle driver of Climate Change

12% Annual Growth Rate last 3 years

Need more Super Container Fleets and Ports to Scale

2015: MSC Oscar 19924 TEU!

Breaking out of BAU

Consume less Drive less Plan ahead Invest in

Renewable Energy infrastructure

Have long term governmental goals

Instill consumer morality based decision making

Requires actual leadership

Requires world cooperation – one planet

Is this just too Damn Hard to Do?

Business world analogy

The 7 reasons that (business) culture resists change 

1.There isn't any real need for the change2.The change is going to make it harder for them to meet their needs3.The risks seem to outweigh the benefits4.They don't think they have the ability to make the change5.They believe the change will fail6.Change process is being handled improperly by management7.The change is inconsistent with their values

2. The change is going to make it harder for them to meet their needs

Reducing consumption and consumption fossil fuel based energy is too hard to do and will significantly compromise my current lifestyle. Furthermore, since there is not evidence that compels me to make such a change, Fuck it …

3. The risks seem to outweigh the benefits

My short term economic security is far more important than long term benefit for the planetary ecosystem

4. They don't think they have the ability to make the change

I am an individual, what can I do that will actually make any impact?

5. They believe the change will fail

Since there is no evidence that changing our consumption habits will have any positive effect then any such mandate to change will surely fail and have significant negative consequences.

6. Change process is being handled improperly by management

We don't trust our government to make a fair set of regulations. We don’t trust scientific advisors to the government to be unbiased. All policy recommendations serve only self-interests. There is not gov’t for the people anymore …

NATURE

GOD

HUMANS

TREES

ROCKS

ConnectivityOf Atoms

Disconnected States

HUMANS

TREES

ROCKSSuper

Nova

Everything Is Connected to

Everything

Certainty

Entitlement

AaroganceWisdom

Enlightenment

Humility

7. The change is inconsistent with their values

Of course it is!

We are not part of nature; we control nature; nature does not control us. We are not in partnership with nature. The Aboriginal world view of connectivity is bullshit. Humans are special.

But Solution Space Exists!But Solution Space Exists! Solar PVSolar PV Solar CSP; Solar Thermal ElectricSolar CSP; Solar Thermal Electric Wind (ON shore and Off Shore)Wind (ON shore and Off Shore) Alternative Fuels (biodiesel, ethanol Alternative Fuels (biodiesel, ethanol

(grain and cellulosic, hydrogen, hybrids)(grain and cellulosic, hydrogen, hybrids) Biomass Co-GenerationBiomass Co-Generation OTEC; Gulf CurrentOTEC; Gulf Current Live in Ambient Partnership with NatureLive in Ambient Partnership with Nature

Barriers to RenewablesBarriers to Renewables

High capital cost; long payback timesHigh capital cost; long payback times Lack of any vision or out of the box Lack of any vision or out of the box

thinking on truly large scale projectsthinking on truly large scale projects NIMBY reactions to anything and NIMBY reactions to anything and

everything makes implementation everything makes implementation difficultdifficult

Technology uncertaintyTechnology uncertainty Grid LimitationsGrid Limitations Human apathy, ignorance, entitlementHuman apathy, ignorance, entitlement

Evaluation Rubric For All forms of Evaluation Rubric For All forms of RenewablesRenewables

1. MW output per surface area (MW/KM1. MW output per surface area (MW/KM22))

2. MW output per material use (MW/Ton)2. MW output per material use (MW/Ton)

3. MW output per job created (Jobs/MW)3. MW output per job created (Jobs/MW)

4. MW output versus production time scale 4. MW output versus production time scale to bring on line (months/MW)to bring on line (months/MW)

5. Capital cost per MW ($/Watt)5. Capital cost per MW ($/Watt)

6. Realistic Levelized Cost (cents per 6. Realistic Levelized Cost (cents per KWH)KWH)

To Evaluate Competing Electricity Generating Technologies Develop an internally consistent indexing

system for the 6 attributes listed previously (the dow jones is an index)

Use real world data and real world physics to best determine the values

Weight the indexes appropriately (real world cares about $/Watt and Jobs Created)

Choose Baseline – we will use Solar in the following exercise

1. Land ~20 MW/km (over 24 hour day) = 1

2. Materials ~3 tons per kw = 1 3. Jobs ~3 jobs per MW 4. Time ~10 MW per month 5. Capital ~3$ per watt real facility cost 6. Levelized 10 cents per KWH

Index Solar

Wind Waves

Biomass

Land 1 2.5 1 .2

Material

1 3 .2 1

Jobs 1 1 1 5

Time 1 3 .5 .5

Capital 1 2.5 .5 .5

Level 1 3 .75 1Cumulative Index = 1+2+(1.5)3+4+1.25(5)+1.25(6)

Highest Index is Best

Solar = 7 Waves =4.75 Biomass =11 (because of jobs created) Wind = 17 (lower material intensity and

low Levelized costs) In general, wind is more scalable than

Solar and wind always beats Solar PV

Sonoran Desert Project:

300,000 square km @ 2% coverage yields 100,000 MW

Lake Michigan Wind project down North South Axis: Populate 400 x 30 km box with 30 legs each containing 1200 5 MW turbines: 180,000 MW

Great Prairie Wind Farm with 100 MW vertical Wind Turbines: Construct 10,000 of these (Space Needle Size) and each per 125 square km. This produces 1TW of electricity and effectively replaces all other forms of electricity generation in the US.

Be Optimistic and ProActiveBe Optimistic and ProActive

• Change can occur when consumers are properly informed.

• Technological solutions exist to make significant impact if deployed now

• Consume Less• Technology is rapidly improving• We are probably NOT Terminally Stupid

You have three choices:

Practice BAU Give UP Proactive: Educate your Peers

Make the Wise Choice