Consumer Confidence Index March 2009img.b8cdn.com/images/uploads/article_docs/bayt_cci... · § Consumer confidence is a measure of the economic wellbeing of a country § It is a

Consumer Confidence Index March 2009

http://www.bayt.com/

Objective

§ To understand perceptions and attitudes of Middle Eastern consumers regarding the economy of their countries, their personal financial and job situation, their likelihood to purchase and invest and the employment market in general.

§ Four indices will be extrapolated from these findings on a regular quarterly basis for which the findings of this analysis serve as the eighth period (February 2009) after the base period in April 2007

§ These are the:

§ Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)

§ Consumer Expectation Index (CEI)

§ Propensity to Consume/Spend Index (PCI)

§ Employee Confidence Index (ECI)


Project Background

§ Consumer confidence is a measure of the economic wellbeing of a country

§ It is a reflection of consumer satisfaction levels and expectations based on various factors in the economy inflation, stock market performance, job opportunities/salary structures, unemployment, investment avenues/returns, business growth, state economic policies, infrastructure, cost of living, interest rates, exchange rates etc.

§ Such consumer satisfaction levels and expectations will have an effect on economic variables

§ For example, if consumers are positive about the economy and have disposable income levels that are perceived as sufficient, they will tend to spend more on consumer goods

§ This in turn will drive business dependent on consumer spending, thereby creating further economic growth

§ On the other hand, a pessimistic view of the economy would cause consumers to rein in their spending, creating a spending recession which could effectively cause business losses/ economic downturn

§ Similarly, if employable adults are optimistic about job prospects and opportunities, job security, have healthy salary expectations and are hopeful about their career growth and development, it will be reflected in their attitudes towards work and the economy as a whole as well as their spending behaviours

§ Therefore following trends in consumer and employee expectations could help forecast economic variables

§ This information is useful for professionals, manufacturers/business people, recruitment consultants/agencies, economists and the general public


Demographic Background & Methodology

§ Age and Gender Adult males and females Aged 18 plus years

§ Nationalities

GCC Arabs, North Africans, Levant, Western Expats & Asians

§ Country of Residence

GCC: UAE, KSA, Kuwait, Oman*, Qatar, Bahrain*

Levant: Lebanon, Syria, Jordan

North Africa: Egypt, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia

Subcontinent: Pakistan*

*low sample for current wave

§ Methodology Online data collection was done between 2nd February to 2nd March 2009. The total number of respondents achieved was 8,686.


Calculation of Indices and Benchmarking

§ The indices which concentrate on measuring consumer confidence are the: • Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) • Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) • Propensity to Consume/Spend Index (PCI)

The index which aims to measure the confidence that employed and working people have with the job market and their own career prospects is:

§ Employee Confidence Index (ECI) The Consumer Confidence Index is composed of the following five questions:

1. We would like to ask you about your financial position currently. How do you think your (and your family’s) current financial position compares with that of last year? a) Better, b) Same as last year, c) Worse, d) Don’t know/Can’t say

2. In what way do you think your (and your family’s) financial position would change in a year’s time? a) Better, b) Remain the same as this year, c) Worse, d) Don’t know/Can’t say

3. How do you think your current expectations about your country’s economy compare with those that you had 3 months previously? a) Better, b) Same, c) Worse, d) Don’t know/Can’t say

4. In what way do you think your country’s economy would change in a year’s time ? a) Better, b) Remain the same as this year, c) Worse, d) Don’t know/Can’t say

5. How would you rate the current period as a time to buy consumer durable goods such as television, refrigerator, computer, furniture or vehicles or property? a) Good time, b) Neutral time, c) Bad time, d) Don’t know/Can’t say



§ The index is calculated according to the following formula: • Index Value = (Current period value / Base period value) * 100

§ Current period’s value for each question is calculated as = (((Number of optimistic answers – Number of pessimistic answers) / Achieved sample)*100) + 100

§ Current period values for each question are summed up to obtain current period’s value for the overall index § Current period’s value calculated for April 2007 is fixed as the base period value § The base period of the index is set as April 2007 and the value of the index at this period is 100 § The index has a point of scale ranging from 0 to 200 § There are two subindexes of CCI:

• Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) • Propensity to Consume/Spend Index (PCI)

§ The CEI is calculated from questions 2 and 4 § The PCI is calculated using only the fifth question § The methodology for calculating both these subindexes is the same as used for calculating CCI § Current period’s value calculated for April 2007 is fixed as the base period value § CCI and its subindexes will be calculated separately for each country



§ The Employee Confidence Index is composed of the following six questions: 1. Currently, how easy or difficult would you say it is, to find a new job in the country you live in? a) Plenty of jobs, b) Not many jobs, c) Very few jobs, d) Don’t know/Can’t say 2. In what way do you expect availability of employment to change in a year’s time? a) More jobs, b) Same number of jobs, c) Fewer jobs, d) Don’t know/Can’t say 3. How would you rate your satisfaction with your current job and career prospects? a) High, b) Neutral, c) Low, d) Don’t know/Can’t say 4. How would you rate your satisfaction with career growth in your current organisation? a) High, b) Neutral, c) Low, d) Don’t know/Can’t say 5. How would you rate your satisfaction with job security in your current organisation? a) High, b) Neutral, c) Low, d) Don’t know/Can’t say 6. How would you rate your satisfaction with your current compensation (including salary, allowances

and other benefits)? a) High, b) Neutral, c) Low, d) Don’t know/Can’t say

§ Current period values for each question will be summed up to obtain current period’s value for the overall index § Current period’s value calculated for April 2007 is fixed as the base period value § The base period of the index is set as April 2007 and the value of the index at this period is 100 § ECI will be calculated separately for each country


Current Period Values for CCI & ECI by Country, April 2007

Base Period Value for: Algeria Egypt Kuwait Lebanon Qatar KSA Syria UAE

Achieved Sample Size 415 1635 711 696 382 2095 200 2069

CEI 288.2 259.1 297.5 217.2 303.4 305.6 268.0 296.4

PCI 103.9 90.6 104.5 67.5 107.6 98.1 76.0 99.2

CCI 637.3 573.6 634.5 428.9 671.7 651.6 560.5 634.4

ECI 605.8 598.5 635.0 490.1 711.3 651.6 549.5 660.8


Current Period Values for CCI & ECI by Country, July 2007

Values for July 2007 Algeria Egypt Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Pakistan Qatar KSA UAE

Achieved Sample Size 427 1632 1206 732 435 960 355 2251 2099

CEI 292.3 261.2 277.0 294.4 236.6 293.8 307.0 307.8 294.0

PCI 107.5 93.1 89.3 105.7 67.4 114.3 108.2 101.9 102.8

CCI 661.1 580.5 597.9 640.4 456.3 660.5 669.3 657.8 630.3

ECI 623.4 608.1 588.0 626.2 524.8 551.9 730.7 669.1 655.7


Current Period Values for CCI & ECI by Country, October 2007

Values for October 2007 Algeria Egypt Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Pakistan Qatar KSA UAE

Achieved Sample Size 452 2217 881 663 286 850 336 3633 3031

CEI 283.0 253.3 246.8 285.8 207.7 287.2 287.2 279.8 276.5

PCI 89.4 86.1 88.9 92.8 67.8 106.5 95.5 83.4 93.8

CCI 608.0 554.8 528.0 609.2 425.5 633.8 615.2 579.1 592.2

ECI 621.7 591.8 582.0 615.2 496.2 565.8 664.3 610.8 629.1


Current Period Values for CCI & ECI by Country, January 2008

Values for Jan 2008 Algeria Egypt Jordan Kuwait Morocco Pakistan Qatar KSA Syria Tunisia UAE

Achieved Sample Size 401 1265 149 131 731 659 208 1264 113 111 184

CEI 260.1 219.1 179.2 249.6 268.0 278.3 281.3 263.8 242.5 260.4 275.5

PCI 85.3 81.7 79.2 91.6 74.8 99.1 101.0 80.9 68.1 74.8 107.1

CCI 552.4 481.8 398.0 538.2 549.9 587.3 595.2 536.1 481.4 536.0 607.6

ECI 558.1 577.7 508.7 573.3 588.5 554.9 689.9 624.1 541.6 579.3 679.3


Current Period Values for CCI & ECI by Country, May 2008

Values for May 2008 Algeria Bahrain Egypt Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Morocco Oman Pakistan Qatar KSA Syria Tunisia UAE

Achieved Sample Size

1745 162 1708 1165 876 387 658 149 741 338 2442 228 220 1335

CEI 263.6 251.9 203.2 194.3 251.4 206.5 254.9 273.8 285.7 247.0 250.9 211.4 267.7 258.1

PCI 83.8 88.9 70.6 64.9 81.3 60.5 70.2 83.9 105.9 89.9 81.6 55.3 87.3 89.4

CCI 567.4 544.4 434.5 393.4 521.5 403.4 508.5 579.9 619.4 550.6 517.3 414.0 578.6 548.8

ECI 590.0 604.3 561.0 526.7 603.7 525.6 585.1 658.4 552.4 674.9 616.7 550.0 603.6 654.8


Current Period Values for CCI & ECI by Country, July 2008

Values for July 2008

Algeria Bahrain Egypt Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Morocco Oman Pakistan Qatar KSA Syria Tunisia UAE


669 137 2045 955 614 222 1427 102 1093 400 2303 149 114 2100

CEI 255.2 240.9 199.0 181.7 250.5 212.2 235.2 259.8 239.2 254.0 245.1 238.9 238.6 229.0

PCI 81.8 89.8 67.7 64.1 88.4 69.4 60.3 90.2 86.7 90.5 77.9 68.5 66.7 83.7

CCI 550.1 515.3 423.7 370.7 540.7 437.4 464.1 567.6 510.9 548.8 503.7 477.9 493.0 496.6

ECI 551.3 571.5 536.6 519.9 598.7 494.1 544.6 627.5 512.4 665.5 612.2 580.5 542.1 621.1


Current Period Values for CCI & ECI by Country, November 2008

Values for November

2008 Algeria Bahrain Egypt Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Morocco Oman Qatar KSA Syria Tunisia UAE

Achieved Sample Size 703 130 2606 789 755 261 2517 111 401 2568 156 194 2029

CEI 238.3 250.0 218.0 242.3 252.1 258.6 256.3 272.1 264.3 253.3 241.7 266.5 228.5

PCI 81.1 73.1 75.7 70.2 79.6 82.8 65.3 73.0 81.8 69.5 76.3 64.9 75.8

CCI 522.9 526.2 469.7 500.0 519.6 546.7 505.2 546.8 557.1 504.0 506.4 538.7 475.2

ECI 561.5 558.5 549.4 544.2 575.4 524.1 556.0 579.3 628.7 586.0 590.4 553.6 541.8


Current Period Values for CCI & ECI by Country, February 2009

Values for February 2009

Algeria Bahrain Egypt Jordan Kuwait LebanonMorocco Oman Qatar KSA Syria Tunisia UAE


494 83 2563 608 456 190 854 78 246 1312 120 164 1253

CEI 246.4 226.5 210.3 219.9 208.1 246.8 249.6 243.6 235.4 243.7 236.7 278.0 192.0

PCI 83.6 77.1 75.1 75.8 71.5 86.8 63.2 92.3 81.7 75.5 62.5 79.3 63.7

CCI 532.4 454.2 444.4 458.7 413.4 512.6 484.5 528.2 496.7 498.0 451.7 550.6 379.9

ECI 560.3 444.6 504.3 498.7 451.5 527.9 525.9 507.7 536.2 543.6 530.0 561.6 422.7


Current Period Values for CCI & ECI by Country, of April 2007 & February 2009

Algeria Bahrain Egypt Kuwait Lebanon

April, 07 Feb, 09 April, 07 Feb, 09 April, 07 Feb, 09 April, 07 Feb, 09 April, 07 Feb, 09

Achieved Sample Size 415 494 101 83 1635 2563 711 456 696 190

CEI 288.2 246.4 273.3 226.5 259.1 210.3 297.5 208.1 217.2 246.8

PCI 103.9 83.6 91.1 77.1 90.6 75.1 104.5 71.5 67.5 86.8

CCI 637.3 532.4 597.0 454.2 573.6 444.4 634.5 413.4 428.9 512.6

ECI 605.8 560.3 567.3 444.6 598.5 504.3 635 451.5 490.1 527.9


Current Period Values for CCI & ECI by Country, of April 2007 & February 2009

Morocco Qatar KSA Syria UAE

April, 07 Feb, 09 April, 07 Feb, 09 April, 07 Feb, 09 April, 07 Feb, 09 April, 07 Feb, 09

Achieved Sample Size 112 854 382 246 2095 1312 200 1312 2069 1253

CEI 275.0 249.6 303.4 235.4 305.6 243.7 268 243.7 296.4 192.0

PCI 84.8 63.2 107.6 81.7 98.1 75.5 76 75.5 99.2 63.7

CCI 582.1 484.5 671.7 496.7 651.6 498.0 560.5 451.7 634.4 379.9

ECI 552.7 525.9 711.3 536.2 651.6 543.6 549.5 543.6 660.8 422.7


Indices by Country July 2007

Index Algeria Egypt Kuwait Lebanon Qatar KSA UAE

CEI 101.4 100.8 99.0 108.9 101.2 100.7 99.2

PCI 103.5 102.8 101.2 99.7 100.5 103.8 103.6

CCI 103.7 101.2 100.9 106.4 99.6 100.9 99.4

ECI 102.9 101.6 98.6 107.1 102.7 102.7 99.2


Indices by Country October 2007

Index Algeria Egypt Kuwait Lebanon Qatar KSA UAE

CEI 98.2 97.7 96.1 95.6 94.7 91.5 93.3

PCI 86.1 95.0 88.8 100.4 88.8 85.0 94.6

CCI 95.4 96.7 96.0 99.2 91.6 88.9 93.4

ECI 102.6 98.9 96.9 101.2 93.4 93.7 95.2


Indices by Country January 2008

Index Algeria Egypt Kuwait Qatar KSA UAE

CEI 90.2 84.5 83.9 92.7 86.3 93.0

PCI 82.1 90.2 87.7 93.8 82.5 107.9

CCI 86.7 84.0 84.8 88.6 82.3 95.8

ECI 92.1 96.5 90.3 97.0 95.8 102.8


Indices by Country May 2008

Index Algeria Bahrain Egypt Kuwait Lebanon Morocco Qatar KSA Syria UAE

CEI 91.5 92.2 78.4 84.5 95.0 92.7 81.4 82.1 78.9 87.1

PCI 80.7 97.6 77.9 77.8 89.5 82.8 83.6 83.2 72.7 90.1

CCI 89.0 91.2 75.7 82.2 94.0 87.4 82.0 79.4 73.9 86.5

ECI 97.4 106.5 93.7 95.1 107.2 105.9 94.9 94.7 100.1 99.1


Indices by Country July 2008


CEI 88.5 88.1 76.8 84.2 97.7 85.5 83.7 80.2 89.2 77.2

PCI 78.7 98.6 74.7 84.6 102.7 71.1 84.1 79.4 90.1 84.4

CCI 86.3 86.3 73.9 85.2 102.0 79.7 81.7 77.3 85.3 78.3

ECI 91.0 100.7 89.7 94.3 100.8 98.5 93.6 93.9 105.6 94.0


Indices by Country November 2008

Index Algeria Bahrain Egypt Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Morocco Oman Qatar KSA Syria Tunisia UAE

CEI 82.7 91.5 84.1 85.5 84.7 119.0 93.2 96.5 87.1 82.9 90.2 93.9 77.1

PCI 78.1 80.2 83.6 78.0 76.2 122.6 77.0 74.8 76.0 70.9 100.4 69.0 76.4

CCI 82.0 88.1 81.9 82.0 81.9 127.5 86.8 88.5 82.9 77.3 90.3 88.1 74.9

ECI 92.7 98.4 91.8 89.2 90.6 106.9 100.6 94.6 88.4 89.9 107.4 104.9 82.0


Indices by Country February 2009


CEI 85.5 82.9 81.2 70.0 113.6 90.8 77.6 79.7 88.3 64.8

PCI 80.5 84.7 82.9 68.4 128.6 74.5 75.9 76.9 82.2 64.2

CCI 83.5 76.1 77.5 65.2 119.5 83.2 74.0 76.4 80.6 59.9

ECI 92.5 78.4 84.3 71.1 107.7 95.2 75.4 83.4 96.5 64.0


Differences in Index by Country February 2009 compared to April 2007


CEI 14.5 17.1 18.8 30.0 13.6 9.2 22.4 20.3 11.7 35.2

PCI 19.5 15.3 17.1 31.6 28.6 25.5 24.1 23.1 17.8 35.8

CCI 16.5 23.9 22.5 34.8 19.5 16.8 26.0 23.6 19.4 40.1

ECI 7.5 21.6 15.7 28.9 7.7 4.8 24.6 16.6 3.5 36.0


What do the Indices Indicate? Comparison of Feb 09 with Base Period April 07

§ Since the base period for the Consumer and Employee Confidence Survey was pegged in April 2007, all subsequent indice calculations would be comparable to this period.

§ An index of > 100 means the confidence for the current period (in this case, Feb 09) is higher than that in April 2007.

§ Conversely, an index of < 100 indicates a dip in confidence compared to that in April 2007.

§ Countries which had a period of high confidence during April 2007 would need to match or exceed those levels of optimism for a better score whereas countries who were pessimistic in April 2007 probably have a slightly easier task of reducing the negativity or returning to normal circumstances for generating a higher score.

§ Over the last 22 months since the base period, most of the indices across all countries have experienced quite a big slide.

§ Lebanon is the most optimistic country showing improvements in all the indices.

§ Syria showed a significant negative trend for all indices though lower for ECI.

§ Similarly, Algeria, Morocco and Egypt also suffered a decline across all indices

§ All the GCC countries i.e. Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, KSA & UAE showed a significant dip in confidence across all indices. The biggest dips were for Kuwait and the UAE

§ Therefore, 9 of the 10 countries measured against the base period showed a dip rather than rise in confidence in the last 22 months.

§ The largest declines for all indices was seen in the UAE

§ Kuwait suffered the second largest decline on all indices


Differences in Index by Country February 2009 compared to November 2008


CEI 2.8 8.6 2.9 14.7 5.4 2.4 9.5 3.2 1.9 12.3

PCI 2.4 4.5 0.7 7.8 6.0 2.5 0.1 6.0 18.2 12.2

CCI 1.5 12.0 4.4 16.7 8.0 3.6 8.9 0.9 9.7 15.0

ECI 0.2 20.0 7.5 19.5 0.8 5.4 13.0 6.5 10.9 18.0


What do the Indices Indicate? Comparison of Feb 09 with Previous Period Nov 08

§ The following comparison has been done wherever relevant with the previous period of Nov 08.

§ When compared with the last wave, Algeria is the only country that has gained slightly

§ In Lebanon, the PCI gained by 6 points, the ECI was nearly steady while CEI and CCI declined

§ Bahrain’s PCI improved by 4.5 points but all other indices declined significantly

§ The PCI for Saudi moved up by 6 points, the CCI was nearly steady while CEI and ECI declined

§ All other countries have generated a loss of optimism on all indices

§ UAE and Kuwait are the worst hit

§ Qatar and Bahrain also had significant dips. Therefore, the region most impacted in the last 3 months is the GCC

§ Among non GCC countries, Syria suffered the most negative change

§ Of the indices, PCI was relatively the most positive seeing a significant decline (more than 2 points) in only 4 out of the 10 countries.

§ The other 3 indices suffered more or less equally.


What does this Mean for the UAE? § Whether compared with the base period of April 07 or even the previous period of November 08 (which was already a

recessionary period), the UAE has observed a significant dip in all its indices.

§ Not only do UAE residents feel that their own financial situation as well as the economy of the country have worsened than what it was 3 months ago, they also have negative expectations of the future

§ One of the worst hit factors was availability of jobs – while in November 2008, 29% were optimistic; in February 2009, only 3% feel there are plenty of jobs still available

§ Though 21% feel more jobs will be available a year hence, it is being compared to difficult current times and is still lower than 29% who felt more jobs will be available after a year, in November 2008

§ In the current period, a majority of 50% feel that the number of employees in their organisation have reduced from last year – the comparative figure in November 2008 was only 22%

§ There was an increasing negative feeling on career prospects and career growth while on job security, those dissatisfied increased from 29% (in November last year) to 43% (in the current wave). Though satisfaction with compensation has traditionally remained low, there were no significant movements, probably due to the fact that these consumers still have a job

§ As always, salary not managing to keep pace with the cost of living was mentioned by 69%.

§ There was a strong tone of negativity when talking about growth in number of employees and keeping up with staffing requirements

§ Those intending to invest in a vehicle have reduced from 32% to 17% and even among those intending to purchase a car, there is an increase in inclination towards a used car

§ Those considering a property investment have also gone down from 20% to 11%

§ Intended consumer spending on durables also declined as compared to the previous wave.


RESPONDENT PROFILE


Respondent profile – Country

Country of Residence

6 1

30

7 5 2

10

1 3

15

1 2

14

Algeria

Bahrain

Egypt

Jordan

Kuwait

Lebanon

Morocco

Oman

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Syria

Tunisia

UAE

Base: Total Sample – N= 8686


Respondent profile Personal

Base: Those who are Married / Used to be married – N=4492 Base: Total Sample – N= 8686

Base: Total Sample – N= 8686 Base: Total Sample – N= 8686


Respondent profile Organizational

Base: Total Sample – N= 13792


Appraisal of Present Situation – 1/3 Q. How do you think your (and family’s) current financial position compares with that of last year? Q. How do you think your current expectations about your country’s economy compare with those that you had 3 months previously? Q. How would you rate the current period as a time to buy consumer durable goods?

• Algeria followed by Qatar, KSA, Tunisia & Egypt are the most optimistic about personal financial positions. • Syria, UAE & Kuwait were largely pessimistic. • No country was more optimistic than pessimistic about its economy. UAE was most negative. • Across all countries, there was a negative sentiment towards buying consumer durables.

Total / Country of residence Total Algeria Egypt Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Morocco Qatar KSA Syria Tunisi

a UAE

Base Size 8686 494 2563 608 456 190 854 246 1312 120 164 1253 Financial

Better 25 31 27 25 18 21 19 29 28 23 27 20 Same 35 38 34 33 37 37 35 43 37 26 41 32 Worse 34 24 30 37 38 33 34 24 30 48 27 43 Don't know 7 8 8 6 7 9 11 3 5 3 5 5

Country’s economy Better 15 23 12 18 9 19 19 12 18 17 19 9 Same 28 34 25 29 25 42 33 38 34 33 38 21 Worse 45 28 50 43 55 28 32 37 37 38 26 61 Don't know 12 15 13 10 11 11 17 13 11 13 17 9

Consumer Behavior Good time to buy 19 23 19 20 19 24 16 20 18 18 23 17 Neutral time to buy 28 24 29 28 28 29 19 35 33 22 25 25 Bad time to buy 46 39 44 45 47 37 53 38 42 56 43 53 Don't know 8 13 7 7 5 11 12 7 7 4 9 5


Appraisal of Present Situation – 2/3

Q. How would you rate the current period in terms of business conditions? Q. Currently, how easy or difficult would you say it is, to find a new job in the country you live in?

• Algeria & Tunisia feel somewhat positive about business conditions. Three fourths of UAE residents pessimistic.

• All countries reporting low availability of jobs. UAE and Kuwait the worst affected job markets

Total / Country of residence Total Algeria Egypt Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Morocco Qatar KSA Syria Tunisi a UAE

Base Size 8686 494 2563 608 456 190 854 246 1312 120 164 1253

Business Conditions

Good time 15 31 14 15 7 23 18 9 20 15 27 5 Neutral time 25 23 25 27 20 34 27 29 30 27 26 17 Bad time 51 25 51 48 67 36 37 58 42 48 38 75 Don't know 9 20 10 10 6 7 18 4 8 10 10 3

Employment

Plenty available 8 11 7 8 5 8 6 16 18 7 5 3 Not many available 33 32 32 34 29 45 32 35 36 31 37 29 Very few available 55 51 57 55 63 44 58 44 42 57 55 64 Don’t know 4 6 4 3 3 3 4 5 4 6 4 4


Appraisal of Present Situation – 3/3

Q. How does the current number of employees in your organisation compare with that last year? Q. Compared to the situation of last year, has your salary kept pace with the cost of living?

• KSA & Algeria the only countries with a positive skew in the job market with Qatar also generating a moderate feeling. UAE is again the worst hit market.

• All countries agreed salaries are not keeping pace with cost of living – more so in UAE and Kuwait.

Total / Country of residence Total Algeria Egypt Jordan Kuwait Lebano

n Morocco Qatar KSA Syria Tuni sia UAE

Working Base Size 7342 375 2229 501 434 157 528 236 1175 99 140 1116

Number of employees

More employees 22 31 21 18 16 20 17 31 31 20 26 16

Same number 31 32 29 33 32 44 28 30 32 31 38 30

Fewer employees 36 21 37 33 46 22 34 34 28 39 27 50

Don’t know 11 16 14 16 6 14 21 5 8 9 9 3

Salary visavis Cost of Living Increased more than cost of living 4 5 3 4 3 5 2 9 6 3 5 4

Increased similar to cost of living 18 16 19 15 23 23 9 29 20 25 16 21

Not kept pace with cost of living 64 57 65 64 68 59 59 56 63 60 60 69

Don’t know 14 22 13 17 6 12 30 6 11 13 19 6


Expectations for the Year Hence – 1/2

Q. In what way do you think your (and family’s) financial position would change in a year’s time? Q. In what way do you think your country’s economy would change in a year’s time?

• Tunisia followed by KSA & Syria lead the way on positive future outlook of personal financial position • Egypt and UAE negative on country’s economic position in a year whereas Tunisia & Morocco were the

most positive.



Base Size 8686 494 2563 608 456 190 854 246 1312 120 164 1253

Financial

Will be better 38 42 41 36 29 41 39 40 46 44 55 26

Will remain the same 17 13 13 17 21 19 12 28 20 16 13 22

Become worse 12 6 10 13 13 11 7 10 9 12 5 23

Don’t know 33 38 36 33 37 29 43 23 25 28 27 29

Country’s Economy

Will be better 28 31 22 28 28 33 37 30 33 27 45 25


Become worse 32 20 42 31 35 16 19 25 26 23 17 37

Don’t know 20 24 21 22 20 19 23 18 15 20 20 18


Expectations for the Year Hence – 2/2

Q. In what way do you expect business conditions to change in a year’s time? Q. In what way do you expect availability of employment to change in a year’s time?

• Tunisia followed by Lebanon & Algeria feel business conditions will be better next year. • Availability of jobs will be relatively better in Tunisia & KSA than in other countries. Egypt, Kuwait & UAE

are the gloomiest about the future availability of jobs in their countries.


n Morocco Qatar KSA Syri a Tunisia UAE

Base Size 8686 494 2563 608 456 190 854 246 1312 120 164 1253

Business Conditions

Will be better 34 41 31 33 33 43 39 32 37 31 47 28


Become worse 27 15 31 28 30 14 17 28 23 27 19 35

Don’t know 17 23 19 16 16 14 24 13 14 14 15 15

Employment

Will be better 21 21 16 24 19 19 24 23 26 20 30 21


Become worse 41 26 49 38 49 30 29 36 36 35 28 49

Don’t know 15 19 15 16 14 14 23 14 12 13 12 12


Satisfaction with Career

Q. How would you rate your satisfaction with your current job and career prospects? Q. How would you rate your satisfaction with career growth in your current organisation?

• Employees in most countries are moderately satisfied with their career prospects. • In terms of career growth, people in Tunisia, Syria & Algeria followed by Egypt & KSA are relatively more

satisfied.



Base Size 7342 375 2229 501 434 157 528 236 1175 99 140 1116

Prospects

High 24 31 26 21 21 18 26 22 24 27 37 17

Neutral 39 33 40 34 43 41 30 48 40 35 28 43

Low 30 26 26 36 31 32 27 26 30 31 29 38

Don’t know 8 10 8 10 5 10 17 4 5 6 6 3

Career Growth

High 34 45 38 34 27 25 35 33 37 46 52 22

Neutral 36 27 38 33 41 40 25 42 36 29 19 38

Low 23 17 17 24 27 24 19 23 22 22 20 36

Don’t know 8 11 8 9 5 11 20 3 5 2 9 3


Satisfaction with Career

Q. How would you rate your satisfaction with job security in your current organisation? Q. How would you rate your satisfaction with your current compensation (including salary, allowances and other benefits)?

• Job security is a concern for nearly a third of employees with 61% expressing moderate to high satisfaction. Tunisia, Syria & Algeria more satisfied while the UAE looks worried.

• On compensation, satisfaction is moderate to low with Syria, Tunisia, Jordan & Algeria expressing greater dissatisfaction.



Base Size 7342 375 2229 501 434 157 528 236 1175 99 140 1116

Job Security

High 26 37 26 30 21 31 26 22 29 38 41 18

Neutral 35 26 37 34 38 43 24 49 36 33 24 36

Low 31 24 29 27 33 18 31 27 30 22 24 43

Don’t know 8 13 8 10 7 9 19 3 5 6 11 4

Compensation

High 10 12 10 9 7 13 10 14 11 9 9 8

Neutral 36 26 38 27 37 34 23 44 38 32 29 41

Low 46 51 43 54 49 43 48 39 45 52 55 48

Don’t know 8 11 9 10 6 10 20 3 6 7 8 2


Investment in Vehicle

Q. Would you be planning to invest in a vehicle within the next 12 months? Q. Which of the following types of vehicle would it be?

• Almost 2 in 10 people would be buying a vehicle in the next 12 months. This figure is slightly higher for Jordan, Qatar & KSA residents.

• A slight majority of those planning to invest in a vehicle would go in for a new one. The inclination towards new cars is much higher in Algeria.



Base Size 8686 494 2563 608 456 190 854 246 1312 120 164 1253

Vehicle

Yes 22 25 19 28 22 24 19 29 27 18 23 17

No 62 57 62 56 66 58 58 59 59 65 58 72

Don’t know 16 18 19 16 12 18 23 11 13 17 20 11

Types of vehicle

Plan to buy base 1890 122 495 170 102 46 164 72 358 22 37 215

New 52 73 58 41 39 54 40 47 56 55 43 44

Used 40 21 35 50 55 43 48 46 38 32 43 42

Don’t know 8 6 8 9 6 2 12 7 5 14 14 14


Investment in Property

Q. Would you be planning to invest in property within the next 12 months? Q. Which of the following types of property would it be?

• Only a sixth of the population expressed an interest in property • Algeria, KSA & Qatar seem to be generating greater interest. Property sales in UAE seem to have cooled the

most since the last wave. • Most of those wishing to purchase a property are likely to go in for a new property specially in Egypt, Qatar

& Kuwait



Base Size 8686 494 2563 608 456 190 854 246 1312 120 164 1253

Property

Yes 17 23 17 16 17 19 14 25 24 18 13 11

No 66 59 66 68 72 63 62 59 58 67 68 79

Don’t know 16 17 17 17 11 18 24 16 17 16 19 11

Types of property

Plan to buy base 1520 116 439 95 76 36 123 62 316 21 22 136

New 61 54 67 59 62 56 57 63 59 52 45 58

Lived in 24 29 18 24 28 25 31 26 25 38 36 26

Don’t know 15 16 15 17 11 19 12 11 15 10 18 16


Purchase of Electronic Appliances

Q. Can you please tell us which of the following are you planning to invest in the next 6 months?

• Continuing with the previous wave, higher interest for desktop/laptop followed by furniture. Across nearly all items, UAE expressing a lower intention

Total / Country of residence Total Algeria Egypt Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Morocco Qatar KSA Syria Tunisia UAE

Base Size 8686 494 2563 608 456 190 854 246 1312 120 164 1253 Desktop or Laptop 29 39 30 33 22 34 31 30 30 37 31 20 Furniture 17 21 16 17 13 18 19 24 24 15 20 12 LCD or Plasma Television 13 12 10 13 14 17 11 12 18 13 13 12 Digital Camera 12 14 9 11 10 16 12 18 14 15 14 14 Washing Machine 9 15 6 7 6 8 13 11 11 9 6 6 Air Conditioner 9 14 10 10 4 9 6 12 14 8 10 4 Refrigerator 8 11 6 5 6 9 9 11 10 6 12 6

Normal Colour Television 5 9 4 5 4 4 7 7 5 3 7 2

DVD or VCD Recorder or Player 5 7 3 10 5 11 6 6 6 5 7 4

Vacuum Cleaner 5 5 5 6 4 5 4 8 8 5 2 5 Home Theatre System 4 4 2 5 5 2 3 4 7 3 4 6 Cooking Range 4 11 2 4 4 3 5 7 6 1 5 4 Clothes Dryer 3 5 2 3 3 2 4 4 5 3 4 2 Video Recorder or Player 2 2 1 2 1 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 Normal or Digital Camcorder 2 2 1 3 3 1 3 2 2 2 2 2


Expectations of Growth in Organization

Thinking specifically about your organization, are you optimistic or pessimistic about each of the following for the next 3 months? Q. Growth in number of employees Q. Keeping up with staffing requirements

• Tunisia the most optimistic about growth in the number of employees. UAE and Kuwait are the most pessimistic.

• Most countries were neutral regarding organisations keeping up with staffing requirements. Tunisia & Algeria are more optimistic than other markets.

Total / Country of residence Total Algeri a Egypt Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Morocco Qata

r KSA Syria Tunis ia UAE

Base Size 8686 494 2563 608 456 190 854 246 1312 120 164 1253

Number of employees

Optimistic 19 27 16 17 15 15 22 18 26 15 29 13

Neutral 35 34 37 37 32 48 26 44 33 39 26 33

Pessimistic 33 24 32 30 42 23 28 28 30 31 27 46

Don’t know 13 15 14 16 11 13 24 10 11 14 17 8

Staffing requirements

Optimistic 17 25 14 16 16 19 19 14 21 19 25 12

Neutral 41 37 44 39 37 47 29 50 42 38 36 39

Pessimistic 29 23 27 31 37 17 27 28 26 33 27 42

Don’t know 13 16 15 14 10 17 25 8 10 9 12 8


Expectations of Market Economy

Now thinking a little more generally about the economy in the markets you operate in, what kind of impact do you believe each of the following will have on your business in the short term future? Q. Inflation/Rise in cost of living Q. Cost of real estate (rental or purchase)

• Inflation generating a largely negative outlook across countries. UAE followed by Kuwait the most pessimistic. • Rising cost of real estate another factor perceived negatively in all countries. Once again UAE the most

concerned.

Total / Country of residence Total Algeria Egypt Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Morocco Qata r KSA Syria Tunisi

a UAE

Base Size 7342 375 2229 501 434 157 528 236 1175 99 140 1116

Inflation/Rise in cost of living Positive 17 19 19 16 15 18 15 15 18 23 20 15 Neutral 23 20 23 23 24 21 17 33 26 22 26 23 Negative 40 32 37 41 47 33 37 39 38 39 35 51 Don't know 11 14 11 11 8 15 19 8 9 4 10 8 No Impact 8 15 9 9 7 12 12 5 8 11 9 3

Cost of real estate (rental or purchase) Positive 14 9 13 14 14 20 14 15 13 16 13 16 Neutral 20 17 19 19 21 23 12 27 23 20 19 21 Negative 42 40 38 43 44 27 43 44 43 35 39 48 Don't know 11 17 11 13 10 12 13 6 8 7 11 10 No Impact 14 18 19 12 11 18 17 8 12 21 19 6


APPENDIX


BY COUNTRY OF RESIDENCE


Appraisal of Personal Financial Situation – (Better option)

25 31

18

27 25

18 21 19

36

29 28 23

27

20

38 42 42 41

36

29

41 39 44

40 46 44

55

26

Current Expectation of Change

• Though all countries are positive in their anticipation of future changes in their financial situation, UAE residents have a relatively conservative outlook.

• Amongst the most optimistic were Bahrain, Syria, Lebanon and Morocco.

Base: Total Sample – N= 8,686


Appraisal of Personal Financial Situation – (Better option)

45 42

45 46 44 50 49

38

48 54

50 44

50

43 38

42 42 41 36

29

41 39 44

40 46 44

55

26

Nov '08 Expectation Feb '09 Expectation

Base: Total Sample: Nov 08 = 13,733, Feb 09 = 8,686

• Kuwait, UAE and Qatar are not so optimistic of the future.


Appraisal of Country’s Economy – (Better option)

15

23

13 12 18

9

19 19 22

12 18 17 19

9

28 31

34

22 28 28

33 37

33 30

33 27

45

25


• Though the GCC countries had more positive expectations from the future than the current period, they were still not very optimistic. UAE’s expectations were among the lowest across all countries

• Tunisia and Morocco were most optimistic.



Appraisal of Country’s Economy – (Better option)

34 28

42

23

37 36 38 39

47 43

38 35

42

34 28

31 34

22 28 28

33 37

33 30

33 27

45

25


• Expectations for most economies have declined in the last 3 months • The worst hit are the GCC countries (though not so much in Saudi) and Jordan.



Appraisal of Career (High Satisfaction Option)

24

31

13

26

21 21 18

26

34

45

23

38 34

27 25

35

26

37

18

26 30

21

31 26

10 12

6 10 9 7

13 10

Total Algeria Bahrain Egypt Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Morocco

Prospects Growth Job security Compensation

Base: Total Working Sample – N= 7,342

• Algeria the most satisfied country while consumers in Bahrain and Kuwait are not very pleased about the way their career is going




• Syria and Tunisia towards high satisfaction while UAE, Oman and Qatar towards the bottom rung on satisfaction with career aspects.

24 20

22 24

27

37

17

34

24

33 37

46

52

22 26

20 22

29

38 41

18

10 6

14 11

9 9 8

Total Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Syria Tunisia UAE



37

43

31

43

36 39

33 37

26

36 38

41 43

29

34

45

23

38 34

27 25

35

24

33 37

46

52

22

Total Algeria Bahrain Egypt Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Morocco Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia

Syria Tunisia UAE

Nov '08 Growth Expectation Feb '09 Growth Expectation


• As seen previously, Syria and Tunisia retain some optimism while Kuwait, Lebanon, Bahrain and UAE do not seem to be very satisfied with their career growth.

Base: Total Working Sample : Nov 08 = 11,505, Feb 09 = 7,342


31 35

37

29

34 34 30 31

34 31 32

43 41

27 26

37

18

26 30

21

31

26

20 22

29

38 41

18

Total Algeria Bahrain Egypt Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Morocco Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia

Syria Tunisia UAE

Nov '08 Job Security Feb '09 Job Security


• UAE and Bahrain face the most negative situation in terms of job security • Apart from these countries, Kuwait and Oman also losing confidence



BY NATIONALITY


25 27 27 22

15 19

38

48

41

35

27 30

Total GCC North Africans Levant Westerners Asians


Appraisal of Personal Financial Situation – (Better Option)

• The optimism for change in the personal financial situation is good across all nationalities. • Generally Asians are the most optimistic, but this time it is GCC nationals (most will be locals) who feel

things will improve most followed by North Africans • The other nationalities (many of whom would be expats and all expats among Asians and Westerners) are

unsure of the future since they may feel their chances of making it big in the region (a main reason for leaving their home countries) are not very high now




• Asians, who were still feeling positive in November now feel the pinch • Westerners, generally the most pessimistic, do not have much hope • GCC nationals the only group that show a slightly more positive future expectation

45 45 44 44

36

53

38

48

41

35

27 30





Appraisal of Country’s Economy – (Better Option)

15

24

14 14

6 11

28

44

26 25

19

30



• GCC nationals, who have better current perceptions than other nationalities, are also more positive about the future

• Asians are not so happy about the current scenario in the country but they feel things could improve next year

• Westerners are pessimistic about the current times as well as the future are highly optimistic that the country’s economy will be better in the future.




• Around a third of the Asians who had optimistic future expectations in November 2008 feeling more negative now

• GCC nationals have maintained their outlook.

34

42

30 33

23

45

28

44

26 25

19

30






24 23 27

22 17

13

34 37 39

35

16 14

26

34

27 29

18 15

10 12 10 10

16

8


Prospects Growth Security Compensation

• North African nationals perceive their career prospects and growth relatively better than other nationals. • GCC followed by Levant nationals reported the highest job security levels. • Westerners have a higher satisfaction than the others with regards compensation, though levels of

satisfaction are rather low overall. • Asians felt the least satisfied about their prospects, growth, compensation & security. • Westerners also felt equally insecure.




37 37 42

38

22 20

34 37 39

35

16 14



• From the previous wave, only GCC nationals maintain a consistent satisfaction level • Asians and Westerners the least satisfied and generate steep declines in satisfaction



BY ORGANISATIONAL SECTOR


Appraisal of Personal Financial Situation (Better Option)

25 29 29

24 22

29

13

38 40 39 38 39 42

33

Total Private sector MNC

Private sector Large Local company

Private sector Small/Medium Local company

Private sector – Other

Public sector or semi govt or

charity

Other


• Regardless of whether respondents work in the private, public, government or any other sector, levels of optimism of future finances was greater than current positivity.



Appraisal of Personal Financial Situation (Better Option)

• MNC employees seem to be relatively more affected than others by the slowdown.

45

53 49

45 44 41

34 38 40 39 38 39

42

33






charity

Other





15 15 14 11

15 18

14

28 28 28 25

30 28 28






charity

Other


• People across all sectors feel that there will be a positive change in the country's economy in future .




34 38

34 33 32 32 34

28 28 28 25

30 28 28






charity

Other


• Even though future expectations are better than current feelings, they are still lower than expectations 3 months back – decline is steeper in MNCs.




24 27 27

18

25 24

13

34 37 38

29

37 33

21

26 27 26

21

26

37

17

10 14

11 8 8

10 6






charity

Other

Prospects Growth Security Compensation

• Job security is relatively high only in the public sector.




37

42 41

35 37

34

23

34 37 38

29

37 33

21






charity

Other


• Satisfaction on career growth has declined across most sectors



BY INCOME



25 27 28 27 25 24

38 42 41

35

24 29

Total Under US$ 1000 per month

US$ 1001‐ 3000 per month

US$ 3001‐5000 per month

US$ 5001‐6000 per month

US$ 6001 or more

Current Expectation of Change Poly. (Expectation of Change)


• The lower income groups are relatively more optimistic of future change.



45 45 51 49 48

45

38 42 41

35

24 29


US$ 1001 3000 per month

US$ 30015000 per month


US$ 6001 or more


• Expectations of the higher income groups have declined significantly in the last 3 months.




15 15 15 12

9 12

28 28 29 28

21 22





US$ 6001 or more


• From a low point currently, respondents feel optimistic about the country's economic future.




34 32

38 34 34

28 28 28 29 28

21 22





US$ 6001 or more


• Those earning higher incomes have significantly lower expectations about the country’s economy as compared to the previous wave.




24 24 23 26

20

26

34 38

32 34

25 29

26 28 27 26

20 23

10 8 10 13 15

22





US$ 6001 or more



• Career growth and job security is of a relative concern to higher income respondents. • Satisfaction with compensation increases with income



37 40 39

35 36 35 34

38

32 34

25

29





US$ 6001 or more


• A growing concern about career growth for the high earners.



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Documents

Consumer Confidence Index March 2009img.b8cdn.com/images/uploads/article_docs/bayt_cci... · § Consumer confidence is a measure of the economic wellbeing of a country § It is a