CONSTRUCTION & MAINTENANCE LOOKING FORWARD quebec … · This labour market information (LMI) system tracks 34 trades and occupations. To further improve the robustness of the system,

BuildForce Canada uses a scenario-based forecasting system to assess future construction labour requirements in the heavy industrial, residential, and non-residential construction markets. This labour market information (LMI) system tracks 34 trades and occupations. To further improve the robustness of the system, BuildForce consults with industry stakeholders, including owners, contractors, and labour groups, to validate the scenario assumptions and construction project lists, and seeks input from government on related analysis. The information is then distilled into labour market condition rankings to help industry employers with the management of their respective human resources.

BuildForce’s LMI System

CONSTRUCTION & MAINTENANCE LOOKING FORWARD

quebecModerate growth sustains labour markets

10-YEAR WORKFORCE OUTLOOKFOR QUEBEC

Demands in Quebec’s construction sector increased for a fourth consecutive year in 2019, driven by higher housing starts, major projects, and generally rising levels of industrial, commercial, and institutional (ICI) building construction. Modest but steady non-residential construction growth sustains total industry employment across the 2020–2029 scenario period, even as demands related to the construction of new housing slow.

Over the scenario period, a slowing pace of immigration-driven population growth contributes to a steady decline in housing starts from the high point reached in 2019. Non-residential construction continues to make gains, driven by utility, roadwork, health care, education, and transit system projects. These offsetting trends continue to lead construction employment requirements higher to 2024, and then sustain them at those levels over the remainder of the scenario period.

In addition to keeping up with moderate growth, industry must remain focused on hiring, training, and retaining workers to replace the anticipated 45,300 workers expected to retire over the coming decade. The expected entry of 38,800 new entrants aged 30 and younger from the local population only partially offsets anticipated retirements.

DISTRIBUTION OF CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT IN 2020, QUEBEC

2029

2020

HIGHLIGHTS2020–2029

AVERAGEUNEMPLOYMENT RATE 7.5%

HIGHLIGHTS

■ Construction employment rose for a fourth consecutive year in 2019, driven by strong gains in new-housing construction and accelerating engineering construction requirements.

■ Over the short term, utilities and highway infrastructure are expected to recede from the peak between 2020–2021, but these declines should be offset by increased public transportation investment.

■ Total construction employment is expected to rise by 4,400 workers (+2%) over the scenario period, while 45,300 workers are expected to retire.

INDUSTRIAL,COMMERCIAL,INSTITUTIONAL (ICI)

NON-RESIDENTIALMAINTENANCE

ENGINEERING

NEW HOUSING

RESIDENTIAL RENOVATION AND

MAINTENANCE

11%

18%

20%

20%

31%

38,80045,300

4,400 (+2.4%)

NEW ENTRANTSRETIREMENTS

EMPLOYMENTCHANGE

QUEBEC – CONSTRUCTION AND MAINTENANCE LOOKING FORWARD

2 QUEBEC – HIGHLIGHTS 2020–2029

QUEBEC CONSTRUCTION OUTLOOK The 2020–2029 Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward outlook projects a steady increase in Quebec’s construction sector, which will likely sustain employment for skilled trades across the province. The acceleration in major infrastructure project requirements offsets a gradual slowing in new-housing construction and maintains high levels of employment, but there is a transition in skills requirements from residential to non-residential construction over the next decade.

The start of new major transportation infrastructure projects, including the Montreal container terminal, ongoing major highway and bridge infrastructure, and public transit projects will offset labour declines in hydroelectric projects after 2021. Rising levels in health-care-sector investment and modest growth in manufacturing strengthen overall ICI building construction over the near term, followed by an acceleration in commercial investment. The pace of growth is expected to plateau after 2021 with the completion of major manufacturing, utility, and highway projects, but investment is expected to continue moderate growth across the scenario period, stimulated by a lower Canadian dollar driving the demand for plant expansion, modernization, retooling, and other industrial-related construction projects.

A strong recovery in housing starts between 2016 and 2019, driven in part by a significant rise in migration to the province, contributed to increased residential activity and the addition of 8,400 workers. A return to slower population growth is expected to lower housing starts across the scenario period. Employment related to new homebuilding is expected to decline by close to 14,300 workers over the decade, but about one third of those losses are likely to be absorbed by rising renovation labour demands.

Retirements have begun to consistently outpace new entrants into Quebec’s labour force. It is estimated that 45,300 workers are expected to retire across the scenario period, becoming a key priority for industry to sustain a skilled labour force over the longer term.

SECTOR INSIGHTSThe following sections provide sector-specific insights into the provincial residential and non-residential labour markets.

The BuildForce LMI system tracks supply and accounts for the change in the available labour force, including retirements, new entrants1 and net mobility2.

BuildForce assesses market conditions for 34 construction trades and occupations using a ranking system that combines measures of the change in employment, unemployment, net mobility, and adjustments based on industry input. The rankings reflect residential and non-residential market conditions unique to the province based on current and proposed construction activity. In addition, assumptions on provincial economic and population growth, new entrants to the labour force, and migration patterns (interprovincial and international) are built into the forecast scenario and included in the ranking assessment.

The rankings for some trades are suppressed due to the small size of the workforce (<100 workers) and limited statistical reliability when assessing labour market conditions at the sector level. Some trades are also excluded because they typically do not work in the sector being assessed (e.g., boilermakers and millwrights in residential construction, and homebuilding and renovation managers in non-residential).

For Quebec, rankings are report for 30 residential and 33 non-residential trades and occupations.

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR

Quebec housing starts totalled close to 50,000 units in 2019 – a level not matched since 2010. The strong growth in new-housing construction in 2017 and 2018 was driven primarily by strong increases in immigration to the province.

Momentum is expected to sustain construction employment related to new housing into 2020, but weaker population trends should limit household formations3 leading to lower housing starts, which are expected to decline to 30,000 units by 2029. Urbanization and affordability have been driving steady declines in the construction of single-detached units, especially in metropolitan centres like Montreal and Quebec City. In the early 1990s, single-detached units accounted for more than 50% of all housing starts in the province – a number that declined to 20% in 2019. Single-detached housing starts are expected to continue to account for about 20% of total starts, with levels remaining relatively stable over the near term, but are expected to decline after 2024.

Moderate growth in renovation and maintenance work should add 6,700 workers, leaving total residential employment down 7,600 workers by 2029.

Figure 1 shows the employment trends by sector for residential construction.

THE AVAILABLE LABOUR FORCE

Residential employment declines across the scenario period, but industry will need to remain focused on addressing an aging workforce and replacing workers expected to retire. The retirement of 22,800 workers is expected over the decade, compared to an inflow of just over 17,700 first-time new entrants aged 30 and younger estimated to be drawn into the residential construction labour force from the local population. An estimated 1,900 workers, however, are expected to leave the residential sector for employment opportunities in other sectors, industries or provinces as new-housing activity declines later in the scenario period.

Figure 2 provides a summary of the estimated changes in the residential labour force across the full 2020–2029 scenario period.

1 New entrants are measured by applying the traditional proportion of the provincial labour force that enters the construction industry. The projected estimate across the scenario period assumes that the construction industry can recruit this group in competition with other industries.

2 Net mobility refers to the movement of labour in and out of the local construction industry labour force. In-mobility captures the movement into the labour force of out-of-province industry workers and/or workers from outside the industry. Many members of this group will move quickly out of the provincial labour force as work declines, referred to as out-mobility.

3 Household formation refers to the change in the number of households (persons living under one roof or occupying a separate housing unit) from one year to the next. It is how population growth is transformed into demand for new housing.

QUEBEC – HIGHLIGHTS 2020–2029 3

CONSTRUCTION AND MAINTENANCE LOOKING FORWARD – QUEBEC

Source: Statistics Canada, BuildForce Canada (2020-2029)

Figure 1: Residential construction employment growth outlook, Quebec

Maintenance Renovations New housing

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

120,000

100,000

101,413

LABOURFORCE

2019

-6,998WORKERS

+22,816RETIREMENTS

-17,740NEW ENTRANTS

-1,922NET MOBILITY*

94,415

LABOURFORCE

2029

-6,998WORKERS

HIRING NEEDS HIRING NEEDS OFFSET BY

Source: BuildForce Canada

* Net mobility refers to the number of workers needed to be brought into the industry from other industries or other provinces to meet rising demands orthe number of workers that exit the industry in downturns. Positive net mobility means that industry must attract workers, while negative net mobility arises from an excess supply of workers in the local construction labour force.

Note: Due to rounding, numbers may not add up to the totals indicated.

Figure 2: Changes in the residential labour force, Quebec



MARKET RANKINGS

Needed workers meeting employer qualifications are not available in local markets to meet current demand so that projects or production may be delayed or deferred. There is excess demand, competition is intense, and recruiting reaches to remote markets.

Workers meeting employer qualifications are generally not available in local markets to meet any increase. Employers will need to compete to attract additional workers. Recruiting and mobility may extend beyond traditional sources and practices.

The availability of workers meeting employer qualifications in the local market may be limited by large projects, plant shutdowns or other short-term increases in demand. Employers may need to compete to attract needed workers. Established patterns of recruiting and mobility are sufficient to meet job requirements.

Workers meeting employer qualifications are available in local markets to meet an increase in demand at the current offered rate of compensation and other working conditions.

Workers meeting employer qualifications are available in local markets to meet an increase in demand at the current offered rate of compensation and other current working conditions. Excess supply is apparent and there is a risk of losing workers to other markets.

RESIDENTIAL RANKINGS, RISKS, AND MOBILITY

Table 1 shows generally balanced residential labour markets across the scenario period, signalled by a rank of 3. The continuing but moderate declining trend in residential employment is partially offset by rising retirements. It is assumed that industry manages labour demand requirements and labour force availability through established promotion and training programs.




Table 1: Residential market rankings, Quebec

TRADES AND OCCUPATIONS – RESIDENTIAL 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2019

Bricklayers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Carpenters 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Concrete finishers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Construction estimators 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Construction managers 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Contractors and supervisors 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Crane operators 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Electrical power line and cable workers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Electricians 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Elevator constructors and mechanics 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Floor covering installers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Gasfitters 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Glaziers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Homebuilding and renovation managers 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4

Insulators 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Ironworkers and structural metal fabricators 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Painters and decorators 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Plasterers, drywall installers and finishers, and lathers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Plumbers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Residential and commercial installers and servicers 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Roofers and shinglers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Sheet metal workers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Steamfitters, pipefitters, and sprinkler system installers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Tilesetters 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Trades helpers and labourers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Truck drivers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Welders and related machine operators 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3



MAINTENANCE

HEAVYINDUSTRIAL

HIGHWAYS &BRIDGES

COMMERCIAL &INSTITUTIONAL

OTHER ENGINEERING

INDUSTRIAL

Figure 3: Non-residential employment distribution by sector, Quebec, 2019 and 2029


90,883102,935

10%

29%

12%11%

13%

24%

10%

30%

10%9%

17%

24%

2019START

2029END

NON-RESIDENTIAL SECTOR

Non-residential construction investment continued to make strong gains in 2019, as both engineering and ICI building construction experienced significant growth. Non-residential investment has been accelerating in Quebec since 2014, driven by major road, highway, and bridge construction, and manufacturing, mining, and utility projects.

Looking forward, a rise in major public transit projects should partly offset employment declines related to the completion of other major projects, including Hydro Quebec’s La Romaine hydroelectric project, transmission lines, and the Turcot interchange roadwork project. Following modest declines to 2021, engineering construction is expected to rise through 2029, as construction of Montreal’s LRT (light rail transit) continues into 2023, and other major projects, including Hydro Quebec’s Petit Mecatina hydroelectric project and the construction of major transit systems in Montreal and Quebec City, commence.

Combined with stable levels of ICI building construction, total non-residential construction employment is expected to rise by 13% between 2020 and 2029 – an increase of just over 12,000 workers.

Figure 3 tracks the distribution of non-residential employment by sector between 2019 and 2029.

Table 2 summarizes the percent change in non-residential employment by sector over the near term (2020–2024) and long term (2025–2029).

Figure 4 shows the employment trends by sector for non-residential construction across the scenario period.

THE AVAILABLE LABOUR FORCE

Quebec’s population is growing, but natural population growth (births minus deaths) is slowing. Immigration will continue to be a key source of labour supply over the next decade. To keep up with labour market requirements, the construction industry will need to expand its recruitment efforts to include underrepresented groups and new immigrants to the province.

The retirement of 22,500 workers is expected over the next decade, compared to just under 21,100 first-time new entrants aged 30 and younger estimated to be drawn into the construction labour force


Total non-residential employment 9% 4%

ICI buildings

Industrial 8% 3%

Commercial, institutional, and government

15% 1%

Engineering

Highways and bridges -9% -2%

Heavy and other engineering

12% 7%

Maintenance 6% 7%

Table 2: Changes in non-residential employment by sector, Quebec

SECTOR % CHANGE 2020–2024

% CHANGE 2025–2029



98,530

LABOURFORCE

2019

+11,981WORKERS

+22,495RETIREMENTS

-21,086NEW ENTRANTS

13,390NET MOBILITY*

110,511

LABOURFORCE

2029

+11,981WORKERS

HIRING NEEDS HIRING NEEDS OFFSET BY


* Net mobility refers to the number of workers needed to be brought into the industry from other industries or other provinces to meet rising demands orthe number of workers that exit the industry in downturns. Positive net mobility means that industry must attract workers, while negative net mobility arises from an excess supply of workers in the local construction labour force.

Note: Due to rounding, numbers may not add up to the totals indicated.

Figure 5: Changes in the non-residential labour force, Quebec


Figure 4: Non-residential construction employment growth outlook, Quebec

20,000

60,000

80,000

120,000

40,000

100,000

Maintenance Industrial, commercial, institutional (ICI) buildings Engineering

Figure 5 provides a summary of the estimated changes in the non-residential labour force across the full 2020–2029 scenario period.

from the local population. A modest but steady rise in employment, in addition to the need to replace retiring workers, results in a gap that will need to be filled by attracting workers from other sectors, industries or provinces into construction.



Table 3: Non-residential market rankings, Quebec

TRADES AND OCCUPATIONS – NON-RESIDENTIAL 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2019

Boilermakers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Bricklayers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Carpenters 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Concrete finishers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Construction estimators 4 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Construction managers 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4

Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Contractors and supervisors 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3

Crane operators 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Drillers and blasters 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Electrical power line and cable workers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Electricians 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Elevator constructors and mechanics 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Floor covering installers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Gasfitters 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Glaziers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Industrial instrument technicians and mechanics 4 3 4 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 3

Insulators 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Ironworkers and structural metal fabricators 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Painters and decorators 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Plasterers, drywall installers and finishers, and lathers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Plumbers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Residential and commercial installers and servicers 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Roofers and shinglers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Sheet metal workers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

NON-RESIDENTIAL RANKINGS, RISKS, AND MOBILITY

Table 3 shows generally balanced non-residential labour markets in Quebec, signalled by a rank of 3. Replacement demands (age-related attrition) are significant over the next 10 years. It is assumed that industry manages labour requirements and labour force availability through established promotion and training programs.

continued on next page



BUILDING A SUSTAINABLE LABOUR FORCEMeeting future labour market needs will require Quebec’s construction industry to remain focused on building a sustainable labour force, as the province is faced with increasing retirements. Over the scenario period, an estimated 45,300 workers are expected to retire, creating a skills vacuum that will require proactive planning. Due to this loss of skills, the construction industry must remain focused on attracting, training, and retaining qualified workers.

The increase in retirements is robust throughout most industries in Quebec, and it stems from an aging population that is likely to increase competition for qualified workers. Over the next 10 years, the share of the population in the older age bracket (65 years and over) is expected to increase, and at the same time, the share of the population in their prime working years (25-54 years old) is expected to decline (see Figure 6). These demographic shifts have the potential to tighten labour markets, as labour force participation by older workers is much lower than that of their younger counterparts.

Quebec’s population growth has improved significantly over the past few years, driven by high numbers of international migrants and fewer losses to interprovincial migration. The spike in international migration, which has been driven mostly by non-permanent residents (international students), sent provincial population growth to historical highs of 1.2% in 2019. Over the next five years, international migration is expected to recede to more normal levels, as educational institutions are near or at capacity. At the same time, Quebec faces an aging population, which is expected to lead natural population growth (births less deaths) on a steady downward trend, reaching zero by 2029 as the number of deaths fully offsets the number of births.

These trends lead Quebec’s population growth lower throughout the scenario period, with stronger near-term declines related to the reduction in international migration. Components of population growth for Quebec are presented in Figure 7.

Figure 6: Population age distribution, Quebec

15%

39% 11%

16%

19%

20190-14

15-24

25-54

55-64

65+12%

38% 11%

15%

24%

2029


Based on historical trends, Quebec’s construction industry is expected to draw an estimated 38,800 first-time new entrants aged 30 and younger from the local population over the next decade. In the scenario period, the pace of retirements exceeds the number of youth coming into construction, forcing the industry to look to other industries, other provinces, and other countries for additional new workers to augment the available pool of local new entrants.


Table 3: Non-residential market rankings, Quebec (continued)

TRADES AND OCCUPATIONS – NON-RESIDENTIAL 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2019

Steamfitters, pipefitters, and sprinkler system installers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Tilesetters 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Trades helpers and labourers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Truck drivers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Welders and related machine operators 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3



APPRENTICESHIP

Just over 72,100 apprentices registered in the 22 largest construction trade programs (see Table 5) in Quebec between 2013 and 20194, with a total of 37,900 completions registered during this period. Apprenticeship data from Statistics Canada’s Registered Apprenticeship Information System (RAIS) show annual new registrations declined 11% from 2013 to 2019, consistent with the decline in construction employment (11%) over the same period. Since 2015, however, new registrations have been steadily increasing and are expected to surpass 10,300 in 2019. Quebec is projected to require more than 20,500 newly certified journeypersons to sustain the current workforce share of certifications and to keep pace with the employment and replacement demands of all industries over the scenario period.

Table 4 provides an overview of the anticipated certification requirements for the 22 largest construction trade programs in all industries and in construction. The table also provides the target number of new entrants required to fulfill demand requirements over the scenario period, taking into account trends in program completion rates. Table 5 provides a trade-by-trade breakdown of the anticipated certification requirements to meet the construction industry’s share of employment and replacement demands over the scenario period and the projected number of new registrants required. It is important to note that the analysis compares the projected supply of new journeypersons and certification requirements across all industries. It does not account for existing imbalances at the 2019 starting point.

Table 4: Estimated construction certification demand and projected target of new entrants, Quebec, 2020 to 2029

Total certification demand – all industries 6,562 4,725 5,362 5,259 4,800 26,708 20,208

Total certification demand – construction 4,022 2,652 3,268 3,175 2,785 15,903 11,489

Construction certification share (%) 61% 56% 61% 60% 58% 60% 57%

Target new registrants – construction 5,426 5,351 3,384 2,653 3,504 20,318 19,371

2020 Total 2020–2024

Total2025–2029


2022 2024 2021 2023

Increase due to natural growth (births less deaths) Increase due to net migration Total population growth

Source: Statistics Canada, BuildForce Canada (2020–2029)

Figure 7: Sources of population growth (%), Quebec

-0.6

-0.4

0

1

1.4

1.2

-0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

0.2

2025 2027202320212019201720152013201120092007200520032001199919971995199319911989198719851983 2029

4 2018 and 2019 are estimated.



Table 5: Estimated construction certification demand and projected target of new entrants by trade, Quebec, 2020 to 2029

Boilermaker 85 99 Balanced supply

Bricklayer 816 1,649 Balanced supply

Carpenter 3,473 5,633 Balanced supply

Concrete Finisher 286 590 Balanced supply

Construction Electrician 4,737 5,825 Balanced supply

Drywall Finisher and Plasterer 278 642 Balanced supply

Fitter Welder 5 10 Balanced supply

Glazier 243 402 Balanced supply

Heavy Equipment Mechanic 61 132 Balanced supply

Heavy Equipment Operator 682 1,922 Balanced supply

Industrial Electrician 170 521 Balanced supply

Industrial Mechanic 48 63 Balanced supply

Ironworker (Structural/Ornamental) 86 111 Balanced supply

Lather (Interior Systems Mechanic) 394 623 Balanced supply

Painter and Decorator 842 1,766 Balanced supply

Power Shovel Operator 354 822 Balanced supply

Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Mechanic 655 1,340 Balanced supply

Roofer 528 1,043 Balanced supply

Sheet Metal Worker 617 980 Balanced supply

Steamfitter/Pipefitter 270 459 Balanced supply

Tile setter 230 631 Balanced supply

Welder 103 142 Balanced supply

Total 14,965 25,408

Apprentice certification supply risk – all industries


Target new registrants – construction

Total certification demand – constructionTrade


POPULATIONGROWTH

BIRTHS DEATHS NETMIGRATION

AVERAGE AGE PERCENT OF CURRENTLABOUR FORCE LOST TO

RETIREMENT

10-YEAR AVERAGE BY 2029


0.7% 85,500 75,700 50,300 42 23%

Source: BuildForce Canada calculations based on Statistics Canada's Labour Force Survey (LFS) and 2016 Census of the Population.

Figure 8: Detailed construction employment by gender, Quebec, 2019

254,800

CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT

2019 NET IN-MOBILITYON-SITE

186,200

OFF-SITE

68,600

F

M

5,500 (3.0%)

180,700 (97.0%)

F

M

26,300 (38.4%)

42,300 (61.6%)

UNDERREPRESENTED GROUPS OF WORKERS

Building a sustainable workforce will require the construction and maintenance industry to increase recruitment from groups traditionally underrepresented in the current construction labour force, including women, Indigenous people, and new Canadians.

In 2019, there were approximately 31,800 women employed in Quebec’s construction industry, of which only 17% worked on-site, directly on construction projects, while the remaining 83% worked off-site, primarily in administrative and management-related occupations. Of the 186,200 tradespeople employed in the industry, women made up only 3% (see Figure 8).

The estimated 5,500 tradeswomen in Quebec are represented across all sectors of construction, but they tend to be employed in occupations highly demanded by residential and ICI building construction, as nearly three quarters of tradeswomen are employed

in these sectors. Moreover, the representation of women is higher in the residential sector, with women accounting for 3.4% of tradespeople involved in new homebuilding, renovations, and maintenance (see Figure 9). The top five trades in which women tend to be employed are construction managers (17% of all tradeswomen), trades helpers and labourers (15%), carpenters (13%), painters (12%), and construction estimators (11%).

Another underrepresented group in the construction industry is the Indigenous population, of which 11% resides in Quebec. The Indigenous population is the fastest growing in Canada and has a higher propensity to choose the construction industry as a career choice. In 2016, an estimated 7.6% of non-Indigenous Canadians were employed in the construction industry, compared to 9.6% for the Indigenous population.

Approximately 2.2% of Quebec’s construction workforce is made up of Indigenous peoples, of which about 79% work directly on



construction projects, while the remaining 21% work primarily in administrative and management-related occupations.

Meeting the workforce needs of tomorrow may also require Quebec’s construction industry to increase its share of new Canadians (immigrants). Over the coming decade, the province is expected to welcome 549,000 newcomers, making the immigrant population a key component of labour force growth.

Quebec’s construction workforce is made up of approximately 7% new Canadians. A significant share of recent immigrants into the province is from French-speaking or French-studying nations such as France, Haiti, French Guiana, Algeria, Morocco, and Cameroon.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONSNew-housing construction in Quebec continued to rise in 2019, while slowing in most other provinces. Housing starts and related employment are projected to recede in 2020, but non-residential labour demands continue to rise, driven by the start of new major projects. Although demands related to new housing recede in line with slowing

population growth, gains in residential renovation work combined with moderate increases in the construction of ICI buildings and infrastructure projects contribute to gains in overall construction employment across the scenario period.

Rising retirements lead to hiring requirements of close to 50,000 workers over the coming decade despite modest employment growth. Divergences between residential and non-residential employment may create opportunities for mobility across construction markets.

The industry scenario-based approach developed by BuildForce Canada to assess future labour market conditions provides a powerful planning tool for industry, government, and other stakeholders to better track labour market conditions and identify potential pressure points. The anticipated labour market conditions reflect the current industry expectations of economic growth and assumptions about immigration to the province. Any changes to these assumptions presents risks and potentially alters anticipated market conditions.

Figure 9: Women's share of total direct trades and occupations (on-site), Quebec

Source: BuildForce Canada calculations based on Statistics Canada's Labour Force Survey (LFS) and tne 2016 Census of the Population.

* industrial, commercial, institutional

3.0%Total construction

Maintenance

Residential

New housing

Renovations

Non-residential

ICI buildings*

Engineering

Maintenance

3.4%

3.8%

2.9%

3.5%

2.5%

2.4%

2.8%

2.4%


14 ALBERTA – HIGHLIGHTS 2017–2026 ALBERTA - HIGHLIGHTS 2017-2025

Timely construction forecast data is available online at constructionforecasts.ca. Create customized reports on a broad range of selected categories within sector, trade or province covering up to 10 years.

For more information, contact:

Phone: 613.569.5552 I [email protected]

The opinions and interpretations in this publication are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Government of Canada

Funded by the Government of Canada’s Sectoral Initiatives Program

FEBRUARY 2020

Documents

CONSTRUCTION & MAINTENANCE LOOKING FORWARD quebec … · This labour market information (LMI) system tracks 34 trades and occupations. To further improve the robustness of the system,