Construction Forecasts - HIGHLIGHTS 2018–2027 Rising … · 2018. 1. 31. · BuildForce’s LMI System CONSTRUCTION & MAINTENANCE LOOKING FORWARD QUEBEC Rising replacement demand

BuildForce Canada uses a scenario-based forecasting system to assess future construction labour requirements in the heavy industrial, residential, and non-residential construction markets. This labour market information (LMI) system tracks 34 trades and occupations. To further improve the robustness of the system, BuildForce consults with industry stakeholders, including owners, contractors, and labour groups, to validate the scenario assumptions and construction project lists, and seeks input from government on related analysis. The information is then distilled into labour market condition rankings to help industry employers with the management of their respective human resources.

BuildForce’s LMI System

CONSTRUCTION & MAINTENANCE LOOKING FORWARD

QUEBECRising replacement demand amid slower growth

10-YEAR WORKFORCE OUTLOOKFOR QUEBEC

Quebec’s construction labour markets experienced significant growth between 2002 and 2013. During this period, the construction industry added nearly 118,000 new jobs – an increase of 76 percent.

Across the 2018–2027 scenario period, total construction employment is expected to go through various cycles, but finish the period near current levels. Employment gains in non-residential construction are expected to offset expected declines in residential employment. The non-residential sector should add approximately 5,700 jobs, or a 6 percent increase, while slower residential activity should translate into 6,400 fewer jobs, or a decline of 9 percent.

Current Quebec employment in the 34 direct trades and occupations monitored by BuildForce Canada is 182,300 workers. Over the coming 10-year period, an estimated 46,500 workers should retire from the industry, which will only be partially offset by the anticipated recruitment of 37,500 workers from the existing pool of locally available new entrants. Consequently, the industry will need to find an additional 5,900 workers from outside the province or outside the industry to keep pace with anticipated demands.

The growing number of anticipated retirements will create challenges for the Quebec industry. With nearly one quarter of the workforce expected to retire over the coming decade, ongoing attention to recruitment and retention will be required to avoid the creation of any potential skills gap.

DISTRIBUTION OF CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT IN 2018, QUEBEC

2027

2018

37,50046,500

1,300 (-0.7%)

NEW ENTRANTSRETIREMENTS

EMPLOYMENTCHANGE

HIGHLIGHTS2018–2027

AVERAGEUNEMPLOYMENT RATE 9.1%

HIGHLIGHTS

■ Housing starts are expected to decline steadily over the scenario period, with decreases concentrated between 2018 and 2020. Steady gains in renovation work partly offset declines in total residential construction employment.

■ Engineering construction, driven by transportation infrastructure activity, rises to a peak in 2019 and then recedes, but employment fluctuates near 2017 levels across the decade.

■ Sustained industrial, commercial, and institutional (ICI) building construction and growth in renovation and maintenance demands maintain overall workforce requirements near current levels across the outlook period.

NON-RESIDENTIALMAINTENANCE

ENGINEERING

NEW HOUSING

RESIDENTIAL RENOVATION AND

MAINTENANCE

INDUSTRIAL,COMMERCIAL,

INSTITUTIONAL (ICI)

QUEBEC – CONSTRUCTION AND MAINTENANCE LOOKING FORWARD

2 QUEBEC – HIGHLIGHTS 2018–2027

QUEBEC CONSTRUCTION OUTLOOK The 2018–2027 Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward outlook for Quebec projects offsetting trends in residential and non-residential requirements that sustain overall employment near current levels through 2019.

Major infrastructure project completions, slowing population growth, and lower new housing construction should limit employment growth across the remainder of the scenario period. New infrastructure and hydro-related projects have strengthened non-residential investment since 2015. An acceleration in road, highway, and bridge work alongside the start of major new public transportation and utility projects is expected to raise related demands further in 2018 and sustain employment until major projects begin to wind down in 2019. Rising healthcare-sector investment and modest growth in manufacturing should also contribute to near-term increases in industrial and institutional construction. ICI building activity is anticipated to contribute positively over the latter half of the decade.

Slowing population growth has translated into a downward trend in household formations1 and new housing starts since 2010. Starts rose in 2016 and were up again in 2017, driven in part by a rise in net migration to the province. The downward trend is expected to resume in 2018 and continue across the scenario period, with expected lower levels of housing starts and residential employment. Steady growth in renovation and maintenance work should help to offset declines in new housing construction to sustain overall total residential employment near current levels over the decade.

Retirements have recently begun to consistently outpace new entrants in Quebec. BuildForce estimates that 46,500 workers are expected to retire across the scenario period, becoming a key focus of recruiting needs.

SECTOR INSIGHTSThe following sections provide sector-specific insights into the non-residential and residential labour markets. The 2018 BuildForce LMI system provides an overview of market drivers and detailed occupational demand and supply-side analysis of labour market conditions in each sector for 34 trades and occupations tracked by BuildForce.

NON-RESIDENTIAL SECTOR

Quebec is amid a period of modest non-residential expansion that began in 2016 and rises to a peak in 2019. Increased demands have been driven by major road, highway, and bridge infrastructure projects, including the Champlain Bridge and Turcot Interchange, other infrastructure, mining, and the utility sector. Activity accelerated in 2017 and is expected to continue to rise in 2018 and 2019 with increased road, highway, and bridge work and the start of new public transportation and hydro utility projects.

Figure 1 tracks the change in non-residential employment by sector for key reference points across the scenario period, including the start in 2018 and then at the end of the period in 2027.

Near-term gains are concentrated in engineering construction, including utility, highway, and bridge projects between 2018 and 2019. Once major project demands subside, steady levels of commercial and institutional activity and rising non-residential maintenance requirements are expected to sustain workforce requirements across the remainder of the scenario period.

Investment in ICI building construction steadily rises throughout the scenario period. Institutional growth dominates the near term; industrial dominates the medium, and commercial dominates the end of the period. Related ICI employment rises by a modest 3,100 jobs, or 8 percent between 2018 and 2027. Overall total non-residential employment rises by 6 percent, adding 5,800 construction jobs by the end of the scenario period in 2027.

Table 1 summarizes the percent change in employment by sector across two periods: the first captures the expected rise over the next five years to 2022, and the second, the remainder of the period to 2027.

Figure 2 shows the employment trends by sector for non-residential construction.

Source: Statistics Canada, BuildForce Canada

Total non-residential employment -1% 7%

ICI

Industrial -3% 8%

Commercial, institutional and government

5% 4%

Engineering

Highways and bridges -13% 3%

Heavy industrial 15% 18%

Other engineering -32% 7%

Maintenance 5% 3%

Table 1: Change in non-residential employment by sector, Quebec

SECTOR % CHANGE 2018–2022

% CHANGE 2023–2027

1 Household formation refers to the change in the number of households (persons living under one roof or occupying a separate housing unit) from one year to the next. It is how population growth is transformed into demand for new housing.

QUEBEC – HIGHLIGHTS 2018–2027 3

CONSTRUCTION AND MAINTENANCE LOOKING FORWARD – QUEBEC

Figure 1: Non-residential employment distribution by sector, Quebec, 2018 and 2027

MAINTENANCE

HEAVYINDUSTRIAL

HIGHWAYS &BRIDGES

COMMERCIAL &INSTITUTIONAL

OTHER ENGINEERING

INDUSTRIAL

START END


2027 2018

103,600 106,200

25%

15%

10%

27%

13%

10%

27%

18%

9%

28%

9%9%

120,000

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000


Figure 2: Non-residential construction employment growth outlook, Quebec

Maintenance Total industrial, commercial, institutional (ICI) Engineering



■ Non-residential construction will continue to rise in 2018 and 2019 with increased road, highway, and bridge work and the start of new public transportation and hydro utility projects.

NON-RESIDENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS

■ Engineering construction growth is concentrated between 2018 and 2019.

■ Overall employment rises by 6 percent, adding 5,800 construction jobs by 2027.

THE AVAILABLE WORKFORCE

The Quebec population is growing, but natural population growth (births minus deaths) is slowing. Immigration will continue to be an important source of labour supply over the next decade. The construction industry will need to draw from immigration and other markets to meet industry demand requirements.

The BuildForce LMI system tracks supply and accounts for the change in the available labour force, including retirements, new entrants2, and net in-mobility3. The retirement of 25,900 workers is expected over the next decade, compared to just over 22,300 first-time new entrants estimated to be drawn into the construction workforce from the local population aged 30 and younger. A modest, but steady rise in employment, in addition to the need to replace workers expected to retire, results in a gap that will need to be filled by attracting workers from other sectors or regions into construction.

Table 2 provides a summary of changes in the non-residential workforce in 2017, the five-year period between 2018 and 2022, and across the full scenario period.

The BuildForce ranking system isolates market conditions specific to non-residential construction. The results are summarized in Table 3.

NON-RESIDENTIAL RANKINGS, RISKS AND MOBILITY

BuildForce assesses market conditions for 34 construction trades and occupations using a ranking system that combines measures of the change in employment, unemployment, net in-mobility, and adjustments based on industry input. The rankings reflect non-residential market conditions unique to Quebec based on current and proposed construction activity. In addition, assumptions on provincial economic and population growth, new entrants to the labour force, and migration patterns (interprovincial and international) are built into the forecast scenario and included in the ranking assessment.

The rankings for some trades working in the non-residential sector are suppressed due to the small size of the workforce (<100 workers) and limited statistical reliability when assessing labour market conditions at the sector level. Trades may also be excluded because they typically do not work in the sector being assessed (e.g., home building and renovation managers in non-residential). For Quebec, non-residential rankings are reported for 32 trades and occupations.

Table 3 provides non-residential rankings for Quebec, showing generally balanced labour markets, signalled by a rank of 3. Replacement (retirements plus mortality) demands are significant over the next 10 years. It is assumed that industry manages demand requirements and workforce availability through established promotion and training programs.

2 New entrants are measured by applying the traditional proportion of the provincial workforce that enters the construction industry. The projected estimate across the scenario period assumes that the construction industry can recruit this group in competition with other industries.

3 In-mobility refers to the arrival of workers from outside the local construction industry. In-mobility includes the interprovincial employee workforce described above. Many members of this group will move quickly out of the province as work declines and this out-mobility, even if it is a very short-term change, signals a weak market.



Source: BuildForce Canada

Employment 3,300 -900 5,800

DemandLabour force change 1,100 -600 5,100

Retirements 2,500 13,000 25,900

SupplyNew entrants 2,100 10,800 22,300

Net mobility 1,500 1,600 8,700

Excess supply/(demand) (2,200) 400 (700)

2017 5 years 2018–2022NON-RESIDENTIAL WORKFORCE ADJUSTMENT

10 years 2018–2027

Table 2: Change in the non-residential workforce, Quebec

MARKET RANKINGS

Needed workers meeting employer qualifications are not available in local markets to meet current demand so that projects or production may be delayed or deferred. There is excess demand, competition is intense and recruiting reaches to remote markets.

Workers meeting employer qualifications are generally not available in local markets to meet any increase. Employers will need to compete to attract additional workers. Recruiting and mobility may extend beyond traditional sources and practices.

The availability of workers meeting employer qualifications in the local market may be limited by large projects, plant shutdowns or other short-term increases in demand. Employers may need to compete to attract needed workers. Established patterns of recruiting and mobility are sufficient to meet job requirements.

Workers meeting employer qualifications are available in local markets to meet an increase in demand at the current offered rate of compensation and other working conditions.

Workers meeting employer qualifications are available in local markets to meet an increase in demand at the current offered rate of compensation and other current working conditions. Excess supply is apparent and there is a risk of losing workers to other markets.



Boilermakers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Bricklayers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Carpenters 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Concrete finishers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Construction estimators 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3

Construction managers 4 4 4 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 4

Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Contractors and supervisors 4 4 4 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3

Crane operators 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Drillers and blasters 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Electrical power line and cable workers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Electricians 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Elevator constructors and mechanics 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Floor covering installers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Gasfitters 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Glaziers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Insulators 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Ironworkers and structural metal fabricators 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Painters and decorators (except interior decorators) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Plasterers, drywall installers and finishers, and lathers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Plumbers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Residential and commercial installers and servicers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Roofers and shinglers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Sheet metal workers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system installers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Tilesetters 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Trades helpers and labourers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Truck drivers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Welders and related machine operators 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3


Table 3: Non-residential market rankings, Quebec

TRADES AND OCCUPATIONS – NON-RESIDENTIAL 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2017




Figure 3: Residential construction employment growth outlook, Quebec

Maintenance Renovations New housing

90,000

80,000

70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR

New housing starts rose in 2016 and were up significantly in 2017, driven in part by a rise in net migration to the province. The current up-cycle follows a period of significant declines in new housing activity that began in 2010. Momentum is expected to carry new construction activity into 2018, but new mortgage eligibility rules and slowing population growth contributed to a resumption of the downward trend in starts at the end of 2017. Housing starts are expected to continue to slow across the scenario period, and new housing construction employment requirements are expected to fall by nearly 12,000 jobs. Over the same period, renovation activity, which currently accounts for half of residential employment, is anticipated to rise by an estimated 10 percent, adding 4,000 related jobs.

Overall, total residential employment is estimated to contract by 19 percent between 2018 and 2027. As new housing slows, residential renovation and maintenance work are expected to account for 75 percent of residential construction jobs by the end of the scenario period.

Figure 3 shows the employment trends by sector for residential construction.

RESIDENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS

■ Following long-term trends in household formations, housing starts are estimated to decline from 43,900 units in 2017 to 27,700 units by 2027.

■ Renovations and maintenance, which accounted for 62 percent of total residential employment in 2017, increase to 75 percent of employment by 2027.

■ Overall employment declines by 7,100 jobs over the decade – a 9 percent decline from 2017 levels.



Employment 5,000 -5,200 -7,100

DemandLabour force change 3,400 -5,000 -8,200

Retirements 2,000 10,300 20,600

SupplyNew entrants 1,600 7,500 15,100

Net mobility 3,800 -2,200 -2,800

Excess supply/(demand) (1,600) 200 (1,100)

2017 5 years 2018–2022RESIDENTIAL WORKFORCE ADJUSTMENT

10 years 2018–2027

Table 4: Changes in the residential workforce, Quebec


THE AVAILABLE WORKFORCE

Residential employment declines across the scenario period, but industry will need to remain focused on addressing an aging workforce and replacing workers expected to retire.

Table 4 provides a summary of the estimated changes in the residential workforce in 2017, the five-year period between 2018 and 2022, and across the full 2018–2027 scenario period. The retirement of 20,600 workers are expected over the next decade, compared to just over 15,100 first-time new entrants estimated to be drawn into the residential construction workforce from the local population aged 30 and younger. An estimated 2,800 workers, however, are expected to leave the residential sector for opportunities in other regions or sectors as new housing activity declines.

RESIDENTIAL RANKINGS, RISKS AND MOBILITY

Table 5 shows generally balanced residential labour markets across the scenario period, signalled by a rank of 3. The continuing, but moderate declining trend in residential employment is partially offset by rising retirements. It is assumed that industry manages demand requirements and workforce availability through established promotion and training programs.

The rankings for some trades working in the residential sector are suppressed due to the small size of the workforce (<100 workers) and limited statistical reliability when assessing labour market conditions at the sector level. Trades may also be excluded because they typically do not work in the sector being assessed (e.g., boilermakers, millwrights, etc. in residential construction). For Quebec, residential rankings are reported for 29 trades and occupations.



Bricklayers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Carpenters 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Concrete finishers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Construction estimators 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Construction managers 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3

Contractors and supervisors 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Crane operators 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Electricians 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Elevator constructors and mechanics 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Floor covering installers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Gasfitters 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Glaziers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Home building and renovation managers 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Insulators 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Ironworkers and structural metal fabricators 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Painters and decorators (except interior decorators) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Plasterers, drywall installers and finishers, and lathers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Plumbers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Residential and commercial installers and servicers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Roofers and shinglers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Sheet metal workers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system installers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Tilesetters 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Trades helpers and labourers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Truck drivers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Welders and related machine operators 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3


Table 5: Residential market rankings, Quebec

TRADES AND OCCUPATIONS – RESIDENTIAL 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2017



Figure 4: Sources of population growth (%), Quebec

Source: Statistics Canada, BuildForce Canada (2018–2027)

Increase due to natural growth (births less deaths) Increase due to net in-migration Total population growth

2025 2027202320212019201720152013201120092007200520032001199919971995199319911989198719851983

1.4

1.2

1

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

REPLENISHING A RETIRING WORKFORCERising retirements and an aging workforce may strain Quebec’s construction workforce even through a weaker growth outlook. Over the coming decade, replenishing a retiring workforce will become the primary driver of new construction jobs. Retirements are expected to draw an estimated 46,500 workers from the province’s construction industry over the next 10 years – 23 percent of the current labour force. Meeting future demands requires industry to remain focused on recruiting, training, and retaining new workers.

Quebec’s population growth is expected to weaken over the coming decade, averaging just 0.6 percent per year compared to 0.9 percent experienced over the past decade (2008–2017).

Aging of the population plays a key role as the gap between births and deaths narrows. As a result, natural population growth (births less deaths) should decline steadily over the coming decade. Consequently, migration will become a key driver in maintaining growth in the province’s population, accounting for nearly 99 percent of total population growth by 2027. Figure 4 shows the sources of population growth for Quebec across the scenario period.

All Canadian provinces, including Quebec, are faced with an aging population. Age demographics not only have implications for demand, but also for the supply of labour, as the labour force participation rate (percent of the population 15 years and older in the labour force) diminishes with age. Over the past decade,



POPULATIONGROWTH

BIRTHS DEATHS NETMIGRATION

AVERAGE AGE OFCONSTRUCTION

WORKFORCE

PERCENT OF CURRENTLABOUR FORCE LOST TO

RETIREMENT

10-YEAR AVERAGE BY 2027

Quebec has seen the share of the population in the older age bracket (65 years and over) increase significantly, while the share of the population in their prime working age (25-54 years old) has been declining. Table 6 shows Quebec’s current and future population age distribution.

Over the next 10 years, the share of the population in the older age bracket is expected to increase, representing nearly one in four residents by 2027, while the share of the population in the prime working age bracket is anticipated to decline. Simultaneously, the share of the population that is potentially available to enter the workforce (15-24 years old) is expected to decline.

As a considerable share of the population moves into the older age bracket, the labour force participation rate is expected to fall steadily. Increasing competition for a smaller pool of youth among Quebec’s industries may hinder construction’s ability to attract new workers. This challenge is further magnified, as recruiting new workers may be become increasingly difficult during periods of slower growth.

0.6% 84,900 73,300 39,500 42 23.2%

Table 6: Population age distribution (%), Quebec

2026AGES 20160–14 15.6 15.3

15–24 11.0 10.2

25–54 40.4 38.4

55–64 14.5 12.4

65+ 18.5 23.7

2027AGES 2017


Based on historical trends, Quebec’s construction industry is expected to draw an estimated 37,500 first-time new entrants from the local population aged 30 and younger over the next decade. Under the outlook scenario, the retiring workforce is expected to exceed the youth coming into construction and this will require industry to acquire workers from other industries and from outside of the province, or find ways to increase its share of new entrants.

Increasing construction’s share of new entrants may require improving initiatives to engage underrepresented groups within Quebec’s construction industry, including Indigenous people and women.

Canada’s Indigenous population has the country’s highest rate of population growth and a higher propensity to choose construction as their career choice. An estimated 11 percent of all Indigenous people in Canada reside in Quebec and currently account for about 1.3 percent of the construction workforce in the province.

Women continue to be an underrepresented group in Quebec’s construction industry. Women presently account for approximately 12 percent of the provincial industry’s workforce, of which about 16 percent work directly on construction projects, while the remaining 84 percent work primarily in administrative and management-related occupations in the construction industry. This translates into an on-site participate rate of only 2.8 percent working in direct trades and occupations.

While Quebec’s share of the construction workforce represented by women sits near the Canadian average, at 12 percent, the province has a significantly lower representation of women in construction trades compared to other provinces. In fact, in most provinces, three in 10 female construction workers earn a living working directly on construction projects, compared to less than two in 10 women in Quebec.



Figure 5: Share of women in direct trades and occupations, Quebec

Source: BuildForce Canada calculations based on Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey (LFS) and 2011 National Household Survey (NHS)

Share of females in direct trades and occupations*

* Direct trades and occupations refers to the 34 trades and occupations tracked by BuildForce Canada, which excludes administrative-type occupations.

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

Nonetheless, recent growth in residential and non-residential construction activity led to moderate increases in female representation in Quebec, with the share of women in direct trades and occupations peaking at nearly 3 percent in 2017. Increased construction activity presented improved job prospects and higher wages, attracting not only men, but also women into the industry. Figure 5 illustrates the share of female employment in direct trades and occupations in Quebec.

Across the 2018–2027 scenario period, women’s share of employment in direct trades and occupations is expected to peak in 2018 before winding down modestly over the remainder of the

decade. Over the long term, growth in engineering construction employment requirements is anticipated to run ahead of growth in residential and non-residential building demands. As a result, male employment growth outpaces female employment growth, as women in Quebec tend to work in occupations concentrated in residential, commercial, and institutional building construction, whereas men dominate employment in occupations concentrated in heavy industrial and engineering construction.

Table 7 shows the anticipated employment in direct trades and occupations by gender in Quebec.

Source: BuildForce Canada calculations based on Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey (LFS) and 2011 National Household Survey (NHS)

176,300 178,800 178,900 175,200 171,500 170,000 168,900 168,700 169,800 172,000 174,800

5,000 5,500 5,400 5,300 5,200 5,100 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,100 5,100

2027

Table 7: Construction employment by gender, Quebec (total direct trades and occupations)

2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017


13 ALBERTA – HIGHLIGHTS 2017–2026 ALBERTA - HIGHLIGHTS 2017-2025

Timely construction forecast data is available online at constructionforecasts.ca. Create customized reports on a broad range of selected categories within sector, trade or province covering up to 10 years.

For more information, contact:

Phone: 613.569.5552 I [email protected]

The opinions and interpretations in this publication are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Government of Canada

Funded by the Government of Canada’s Sectoral Initiatives Program

JANUARY 2018

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONSPositive contributions from both residential and non-residential sectors raised workforce requirements significantly in 2017. The divergence of residential and non-residential employment requirements in 2018 marks the start of a slower growth outlook for construction employment in Quebec, but engineering construction demands continue to rise until 2019.

The completion of major projects alongside a prolonged slowing in new housing activity results in relatively weaker labour market conditions between 2020 and 2022; however, stronger demand is anticipated to resume thereafter.

Rising retirements lead to significant hiring requirements, despite the overall flat employment demand outlook, while divergences between residential and non-residential employment may create opportunities for mobility in the workforce across sectors.

The industry scenario-based approach developed by BuildForce Canada to assess future labour market conditions provides a powerful planning tool for industry, government, and other stakeholders to better track labour market conditions and identify potential pressure points. The anticipated labour market conditions reflect the current industry expectations of economic growth and assumptions about immigration to the province. Any changes to these assumptions presents risks and potentially alters anticipated market conditions.

Documents

Construction Forecasts - HIGHLIGHTS 2018–2027 Rising … · 2018. 1. 31. · BuildForce’s LMI System CONSTRUCTION & MAINTENANCE LOOKING FORWARD QUEBEC Rising replacement demand