Constraints Analysis for MCC

8/6/2019 Constraints Analysis for MCC

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Executive Summary ............................................................................................................ 4!

Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 5!

General Overview ............................................................................................................... 8!

Overview of Economic Performance ............................................................................ 11!

The External Sector....................................................................................................... 13!

Tourism ......................................................................................................................... 15!

Agriculture Sector Overview ........................................................................................ 16!

Overview of the Social and Healthcare Sector ............................................................. 23!

Summary ....................................................................................................................... 27!

Growth Diagnostics .......................................................................................................... 29!

1. Is it Low Returns to Economic Activity? ................................................................. 33!

1.1.Is it Low Social Returns? .................................................................................... 33!

1.1.1.Is it Natural Capital/Geography? ................................................................33!

General Overview of Geography ....................................................................33!

Transportation Routes and Links to Markets ..................................................35!

Natural Capital Conclusion .............................................................................36!

1.1.2. Is it Human Capital? ..................................................................................37!1.1.2.1. Lack of Skilled Labor ........................................................................37!

Human Capital Summary ................................................................................53!

1.1.3. Is it Infrastructure? .....................................................................................54!

General Overview ...........................................................................................54!

1.1.3.1. Roads Infrastructure ..........................................................................61!

1.1.3.2. Energy ...............................................................................................68!

1.1.3.2. Water Supply Infrastructure ..............................................................78!

1.1.3.2. Telecommunications .........................................................................81!

Infrastructure Summary ..................................................................................88!

1.1.4. Is it Innovations? ........................................................................................89!

1.1.4.1. The Export Basket Size and Composition ........................................89!1.1.4.2. Export Sophistication level ...............................................................94!

1.1.4.2. Innovations at the Enterprise Level ..................................................96!

Innovations Summary .....................................................................................98!

1.2. Is it Low Appropriability? ................................................................................. 99!

1.2.1. Is it Macro Risks? ......................................................................................99!

1.2.1.1. GDP Growth and Inflation .................................................................99!

1.2.1.2. Fiscal Policy .....................................................................................103!

1.2.1.3. External Position ..............................................................................106!

Macro Risks Summary ..................................................................................109!

1.2.2. Is it Micro Risks? .....................................................................................110!

2. Is it Finance? ........................................................................................................... 120!2.1. Is it Local Finance? .......................................................................................... 121!

2.1.1. Regulatory Environment ..........................................................................121!

2.1.2. Competition .............................................................................................121!

2.1.3. National Savings .....................................................................................123!

2.1.3. Interest Rates ..........................................................................................124!

2.1.3. Lending Practices ....................................................................................126!



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2.1.3. Products ..................................................................................................128!

2.2. Is it Foreign Finance?....................................................................................... 130!

2.2.1. Country Risk Rating ................................................................................130!

2.2.2. Foreign Direct Investment and remittances .............................................130!

Finance Summary ..............................................................................................134!

Conclusion ...................................................................................................................... 135!

Bibliography ................................................................................................................... 138!

Annexes........................................................................................................................... 141!



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3 http://www.transparency.org/policy_research/surveys_indices/cpi 4 http://www.doingbusiness.org/data/exploreeconomies/georgia



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10 Current grouping of population by education is somewhat outdated, as nowadays (since 2010) there is adifferent structure in the education system. The reason for presenting this grouping is that this is how the

data is organized by the statistics office, as the data represents pre 2010 reality. Previously existing

education system of Georgia did not clearly differentiate secondary and tertiary education. School years

starting from grade 9, as well as vocational (professional) education received after the 9-th grade were

regarded as secondary, although those graduating from vocational (professional) education institutions

were not permitted to apply for higher education. (Please find below more detailed analysis of Vocational

Education System).11 XII grade in the school was introduced in 2008



41

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12 The Core Team attempted to obtain data on what was the share of graduates with foreign and local

diploma, but this information was not available.



43

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We regressed wag e _log the dependent variable, which is the ln of the market wage

level of employed workers, on the following independent variables: grad e - covering the

years spent on getting education, tt l _e xp , which is generated by ag e - grad e - 6 and

represents the years of potential experience, which a person of certain age with certainyears of education may have, tt l _e xp2 which is the square of potential experience. The

database coveres11 042 observations.

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Documents

Constraints Analysis for MCC