“Consider it Advisable to Launch Attack Force Immediately”[i]:

A What if? Investigation and Analysis of the Battle of Midway

[i] Rear Admiral Tamon Yamaguchi, IJN, as quoted by Mitsuo Fuchida and Masatake Okumiya in Midway: The Battle that Doomed Japan (Annapolis, Maryland: Naval Institute Press, 1955), 170.

Base, on average, almostprecisely modeled actual

outcome

02

46

810

1214

1618

USNAircraft

Carriers

IJNAircraft

Carriers

USNFighterAircraft

IJNAFFighterAircraft

USNStrike

Aircraft

History

Base Model

Beginning Number of Agents Historical Base

USN Aircraft Carriers 3 3 IJN Aircraft Carriers 4 4 USN Fighter Aircraft 41 41 IJNAF Fighter Aircraft 20 20 USN Strike Aircraft 63 63

Number of Agents Killed Historical Base

USN Aircraft Carriers 0 0 IJN Aircraft Carriers 3 2 USN Fighter Aircraft 1 6 IJNAF Fighter Aircraft 15 15 USN Strike Aircraft 14 16

USNCarriers

USNFighter

Aircraft

USNStrike

Aircraft

IJNCarriers

IJNAFFighter

Aircraft

IJNAFStrike

Aircraft

History

Base

Strike 1

Strike 2

Final Dead (Average)Historical Base Strike 1 Strike 2

USN Carriers 0 0 1 2 USN Fighter Aircraft 1 6 6 16 USN Strike Aircraft 14 16 25 24 IJN Carriers 3 2 4 4 IJNAF Fighter Aircraft 15 15 19 33 IJNAF Strike Aircraft N/A N/A 26 25

Frequency

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 More

Frequency

Frequency

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 More

Frequency

Frequency

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 More

Frequency

CV-5 SBD (1000lb)

Base Model

Strike 1

Strike 2

MinMaxStDevAvg

0.00010.0002.1883.300

110

1.9901799734.28

MinMaxStDevAvg

MinMaxStDevAvg

08

1.6449055553.22

Frequency

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 More

Frequency

Frequency

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 More

Frequency

Frequency

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 More

Frequency

CV-5 TBD

Base Model

Strike 1

Strike 2

MinMaxStDevAvg

MinMaxStDevAvg

MinMaxStDevAvg

4.0013.002.137.80

513

2.26319261612.02

513

1.73840179912.28

TF16 F4F (FP)

Strike 1

Strike 2

MinMaxStDevAvg

MinMaxStDevAvg

19

1.8495448973.26

Frequency

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 More

Frequency

312

2.5726980997.56

Frequency

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 More

Frequency

Frequency

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 1 More

Frequency

Frequency

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 1 More

Frequency

American Carriers

Strike 1

Strike 2

MinMaxStDevAvg

MinMaxStDevAvg

02

0.5424810731.46

12

0.4535573681.72

Japanese Carriers

Base Model

Strike 1

Strike 2

MinMaxStDevAvg

MinMaxStDevAvg

MinMaxStDevAvg

2.0004.0000.4682.160

24

0.6776309273.7

24

0.4819179373.82

Frequency

0

10

20

30

40

50

2 3 More

Frequency

Frequency

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2 3 More

Frequency

Frequency

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2 3 More

Frequency

Relation between Japanese Carrier dead and Japanese CAP/FP dead (low)

Relation between Japanese Carrier dead and Japanese CAP/FP dead (high)

Relation between American Fighter Aircraft Dead and Japanese Carrier Dead (High)

Relation between American Fighter Aircraft Dead and Japanese Carrier Dead (Low)

Endless number of WHAT IFs?

-Weather-Personality Conflicts (Fletcher & Spruance)-Radio Transmission Range-Lt. Tomonaga’s death-VT-3’s tardiness-Japanese carrier decks devoid of aircraft-Willingness of American pilots to face almost certain death-Ability of VF-6’s pilots (Thatch weave)-USS Yorktown’s late launch schedule-etc., etc., etc...