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Conflict Termination Trends, challenges (new approaches?) National Defense College of the Philippines, 14 April 2011

Conflict Termination Trends, challenges (new approaches?) National Defense College of the Philippines, 14 April 2011

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Page 1: Conflict Termination Trends, challenges (new approaches?) National Defense College of the Philippines, 14 April 2011

Conflict Termination

Trends, challenges (new approaches?)

National Defense College of the Philippines, 14 April 2011

Page 2: Conflict Termination Trends, challenges (new approaches?) National Defense College of the Philippines, 14 April 2011

Overview

• 1. Conciliation Resources • 2. Conflict termination• 3. Trends• 4. Challenge• (5. Approaches)

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Page 3: Conflict Termination Trends, challenges (new approaches?) National Defense College of the Philippines, 14 April 2011

Conciliation Resources

• Background• Approach• Areas of engagement:

1. Supporting peace processes (geographic areas)

2. Documenting best practice (Accord)3. Policy

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Page 4: Conflict Termination Trends, challenges (new approaches?) National Defense College of the Philippines, 14 April 2011

Protracted armed conflicts

• Some 20 armed conflicts/tensions have lasted more than 20 years.

• Limited media coverage.• Most cases take place in “democratic”

contexts.• Complexity increases with time: new

actors, new factors, increased grievances, culture of violence.

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Page 5: Conflict Termination Trends, challenges (new approaches?) National Defense College of the Philippines, 14 April 2011

Protracted peace processes

• Six negotiations started more than 20 years ago: NPA (23), Colombia (25), Cyprus (32), Spain (38), Nagaland (49), Kashmir (50).

• Oldest terminated conflicts: MNLF (21), Northern Ireland (25), Sri Lanka (26), Burundi (29).

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Page 6: Conflict Termination Trends, challenges (new approaches?) National Defense College of the Philippines, 14 April 2011

Conflict “termination”

• Peace agreement: 11 (>85 %)• Victory/defeat: 2 (Peru, Sri Lanka)• Comprehensive negotiations also take

place with militarily ‘weak’ rebel groups: URNG (Guatemala), GAM (Aceh).

• One of the strongest rebel movements in the world (LTTE) was defeated (2009).

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Page 7: Conflict Termination Trends, challenges (new approaches?) National Defense College of the Philippines, 14 April 2011

From bullets to ballots

• 75% of rebels turned political parties access government:South Africa (1994), Mindanao (1996), East Timor (2002), Aceh (2006), Northern Ireland (2007) Guatemala (2007), Nepal (2008), El Salvador (2009).

• Access to power most often happened shortly after the final peace agreement.

• It took longer time in Northern Ireland (9 years), Guatemala (11 years), and El Salvador (18 years).

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Page 8: Conflict Termination Trends, challenges (new approaches?) National Defense College of the Philippines, 14 April 2011

Trends: the ‘good’ news

• Less armed conflicts• Less battle deaths• COIN unsuccessful (Rand)• More negotiated terminations• Negotiations in most current conflicts• Better peace-support capacities• Less acceptance of violence: – less support to rebels (LTTE, ETA, FARC)– more peace support.

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Page 9: Conflict Termination Trends, challenges (new approaches?) National Defense College of the Philippines, 14 April 2011

Trends: the bad news

• Conflicts & peace process become protracted• Post-agreement violence• Conflict recurrence• New forms of violence• Resilience of power-holders• September 11: more asymmetry• Time now favors status quo (Palestine, WS)• Poor quality of peace agreements• Failed expectations

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Page 10: Conflict Termination Trends, challenges (new approaches?) National Defense College of the Philippines, 14 April 2011

Challenge

From quantity to quality of peace processes

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Page 11: Conflict Termination Trends, challenges (new approaches?) National Defense College of the Philippines, 14 April 2011

1. Re-assess assumptions

• Peace will be brokered by warriors• ‘Strong’ rebels can’t be defeated• ‘Weak’ rebels don’t have political power• Peace is made around one table• A peace agreement will bring peace • Spoilers will always put obstacles• People are doomed to be violent

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Page 12: Conflict Termination Trends, challenges (new approaches?) National Defense College of the Philippines, 14 April 2011

2. Welcome innovations

• “6 paths to peace” (1993)• Peace zones• Civilian peacekeeping (local and intnal.)• Early peace dividends: BDA• Capacity building to balance asymmetry:

BMIL• Sophisticated peace-support architecture:

ICG, IMT• All-women contingent (CPC)• Military - peace

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Page 13: Conflict Termination Trends, challenges (new approaches?) National Defense College of the Philippines, 14 April 2011

3. New concepts and methods

• Violence continuum: public-private• Peace process - peace negotiations• Manage expectations: increase time-frame• Victims: from objects to subjects• Explore stakeholder ‘cocktails’.

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Page 14: Conflict Termination Trends, challenges (new approaches?) National Defense College of the Philippines, 14 April 2011

4. Accept complexity

• Multiple situations overlap (conflict/post-)• Same factors produce different outcome at

different moments• Intuition over analysis• Identify and address the multiple layers of

conflict. • Challenges are both global and context-

specific: mutual learning

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Page 15: Conflict Termination Trends, challenges (new approaches?) National Defense College of the Philippines, 14 April 2011

5. Broaden perspectives

• From stopping violence to challenging violence:– Unmask the interests that justify violence

(economic and political dimensions).– Transform the structures that sustain

violence (institutional dimension).– De-construct the myths that foster violence

(cultural dimension).

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Page 16: Conflict Termination Trends, challenges (new approaches?) National Defense College of the Philippines, 14 April 2011

6. Women’s contributions

• From linear processes to circular metaphors• Challenging binary considerations:

– Good and bad – shared responsibilities– War and peace - violence continuum – Men and women – gendered roles

• From amnesty to accountability.• From elite-driven negotiations to inclusive

peace processes.• From W. liberal values and neo-colonial

attitudes to acknowledgement of local and indigenous capacities.

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