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Conflict Resolution and the End of the Cold War, 1989-93Author(s): Peter Wallensteen and Karin AxellReviewed work(s):Source: Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 31, No. 3 (Aug., 1994), pp. 333-349Published by: Sage Publications, Ltd.Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/425381 .

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? Journalof Peace Research,vol. 31, no. 3, 1994, pp. 333-349

Conflict Resolution and the End of the Cold War,1989-93*

PETER WALLENSTEEN & KARIN AXELL

Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

This articlepresentsbasic data on 90 armedconflicts in the period 1989-93, revisingand updatinga report n JPR vol. 30, no. 3 (1993), pp. 331-346. In 1993 there was not one single inter-stateconflict. All 47 active armedconflicts were internal.Fifteenof 18 conflicts fought in Europefrom1989-93 were in the territories f the formerSoviet Union andex-Yugoslavia.Therend n increasingnumbersof armedconflicts reported arlierwas not continued hrough1993. A systematicanalysisof conflict terminationhows that the numberof peace agreementswas low (6 of 41 cases of termi-nation),but thatvictorywas not the typicaloutcome(17 of 41 outcomes).Otherendingswere morefrequent. Conflict resolutionefforts aiming at peace agreementoften saw positive outcomes in

longstanding isputes.Thedataconfirma

pictureof more fluid conflict

patternst the endof the Cold

War.They also support he notion that it is easier to starta war thanto stop it.

1. IntroductionThe past five years bridge a dramatically

changing situationin global relations. Follow-

ing the end of the Cold War, and the disso-lutionof the Soviet Union, an increasednumberof armed conflicts was witnessed globally(Wallensteen & Axell, 1993). Changing greatpower relations also opened new possibilitiesfor conflict resolution. What then is the record

for the initiationas well as resolutionof armedconflicts during this five-year period?

This article revises and updates a previousreport and ventures into the issue of conflict

resolution.' The focus is on armed conflicts,defined as armed contested incompatibilitieswhich concern government andlor territory,where the use of armed force by two parties,of which at least one is the government of a

state, results in at least 25 battle-relateddeaths.

Appendix 1 records such armed conflicts for

the period 1989-93. Appendix2 gives the defi-nition and Appendix 3 lists rejected or am-biguous cases. The recorded armed conflictsare grouped into three categories:* minor armed conflicts, where the battle-relateddeaths duringthe course of the conflictare below 1000;* intermediate conflicts, where there are morethan 1000 battle-related deaths recorded dur-ing the course of the conflict, and where 25but less than 1000 deaths have occurred dur-ing a particular year;

*wars, where there are more than 1000 battlerelated deaths during one particular year.

For convenience, the two latter categoriesare sometimes referred to as major armedconflicts.2

2. Armed ConflictThe classical inter-statewarwas a small group,there were only four inter-state armed con-flicts for the whole period 1988-1993. Strik-

ingly, not one inter-state armed conflict was

going on in 1993. In all, 90 armed conflictstook place during the five years, 1989-93, in61 locations around the world, and more than60 governments participated in at least onearmedconflict. This means that aboutone third

of the memberstates of the UN were involvedin armed conflict and/or had battles on their

territory n this period.A considerablenumber

of non-governmental forces were active. Theprecise number is difficult to estimate. Ap-pendix 1 identifies ca 175 such groups, but

the real number is considerably higher. For

instance, the government of India estimated

that there were 180 groups active in Kashmir

in 1992. Also alliances and fronts are forgedfor shorteror longerperiods,makingthe count-

ing difficult. Strength and legitimacy of these

actors vary, some in fact controlling land and

constituting functioning governments, others

approachingbanditry.



334 Peter Wallensteen&KarinAxell

Figure 1. Number of Armed Conflicts by Level of

Activity and Year

60- I I I

50 -V

1?0L MinorArmed

c<?~~~~4U

~Conflict

Q 30 - IntermediateAnnedConflict

; 20 W arz

10

O

-89 -90 -91 -92 -93

Year

Table I. Numberof ArmedConflictsby Level of

Activity and Year

1989 1990 19911992 1993

Minor Armed Conflicts 14 16 18 23 15IntermediateArmedConflicts 14 14 12 12 17

War 19 19 20 20 15All Armed Conflicts 47 49 50 55 47

Figure 1 and Table I show the developmentof the number of armed conflicts during the

period. Throughout he period,the totalnumberof armedconflicts per yearremainedon a veryhigh level, the annual total on average 50 (or,more precisely, 49.6). The variationsaresmall,but interesting. The total number of armedconflicts increased in 1992 but was somewhatlower in 1993, thus breakingthe trendtowards

increasing numbers. This pattern is clearerwhen the data is broken down into different

categories of intensity. The number of warswas reduced in 1993, as was the number of

minor conflicts. Instead the category of pro-tracted, intermediate conflicts increased.

The change between 1992 and 1993 needs

some further comment. First, there were twonew wars recorded in 1993, both due to

changed political configurations in existingconflicts (the break-up of the Croat-Bosnianalliance in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and theformation of the Freedom Alliance in South

Africa). In additionthere were five new minor

conflicts, including the battle for the Supreme

Soviet Building (the 'White House') in Mos-cow in October, 1993, and the revival of aconflict that had been dormant for some time

(Kurdishgroup in Iran). Second, 16 conflicts

active in 1992 have been dropped from thelist for 1993. Third, there was considerableshift in intensity in nine conflicts: two esca-lated from minor conflicts to wars (Georgia(Abkhazia) and Algeria), whereas othersshowed less violence (e.g. India (Punjab),Myanmar/Burma(Karen), Philippines, Libe-

ria, Rwanda,Somalia andGuatemala).3In all,there was considerable fluidity in the globalconflict situation. Although the trend to in-

creasing numbers was broken, it cannot betaken for granted that this is more than coin-

cidental. It is not easy, furthermore,to find acommon explanation for these developments.The challenge of why conflicts terminated

during the period is taken up in section 3below.

Figure 2 shows a regional breakdown. Eu-

rope as a region was in stark contrast to the

others, with a uniform increase in the numberof armed conflicts, totalling ten active con-flicts in 1993.4 The Americas showed the re-verse pattern,with threeconflicts recorded in1993 comparedto eight in 1989. Asia had themost variationwith a large reduction in 1991,an upsurge in 1992 and again a reduction in1993. The latter was in particularassociatedwith the ending of conflicts in Myanmar/Burma. Not withstanding the general image,conflicts in Africa continued to decline innumbersas well as in intensity (e.g. five warsin 1993 compared to nine in 1991). It shouldbe remembered,however, thatthese data cover

only armed conflicts, not the experience of

repression or massacres of civilians. Thus,

particularinhumane events in parts of manycontinents are not included. A case in mind is

the events in Burundi in 1993.The contested incompatibilitiescontinued to

be equally divided among control over gov-ernment and control over territory.In Europe,the Middle East and Asia, issues of territorydominated hroughout he period,in Africa andthe Americas issues of government were

central. In Europe two of the new conflictsconcernedgovernment(in Azerbaijanand Rus-

sia), and in Asia some of the territorialcon-

flicts were winding down (e.g. in Myanmar).



ArmedConflict 989-93 335

Figure2. ArmedConflictsby Level of Activity, Regionand Year

] MinorArmedConflict

E IntermediatermedConflict

* War

-89 -90 -91 -92 -93

Europe

-89 -90 -91 -92 -93Middle East

-89 -90 -91 -92 -93 -89 -90 -91 -92 -93Asia Africa

-89 -90 -91 -92 -93Amrica

Table II. Numberof ArActivity and Year

EuropeMinor ArmedConflict!

IntermediateArmedConflicts

WarAll Armed Conflicts

Middle EastMinorArmed ConflictIntermediateArmedConflicts

WarAll ArmedConflicts

AsiaMinorArmedConflictIntermediateArmed

ConflictsWarAll ArmedConflicts

AfricaMinor Armed ConflictIntermediateArmedConflicts

WarAll ArmedConflicts

AmericaMinor Armed ConflictIntermediateArmedConflicts

War

All ArmedConflicts

med Conflictsby Level of 3. Conflict Resolution

The total number of conflicts during the pe-

1989 1990 19911992 1993 rnodwas 90, but the number active in 1993was 47. This means that duringthe period 43

0 2 4 5 4 conflicts were dropped from the list. Forty-

one of these could be regardedas ended in the1 1 1 2 2 sense that no activity meeting the criteria for1 0 1 2 4 inclusion occurred in 1993. What happened,

and what are the implications? Two forms of

s O 1 1 2 1 conflict terminationare of interest:victory andmutual agreement (peace accord). Victory

3 4 3 4 5 refers to the dissolution of one party or its1 1 3 1 1 acceding to the demands of the other party.4 6 7 7 7 Mutual agreement (peace accord) refers to

peace agreements between the parties, eithers7 5 5 7 6 in the form of treaties or processes agreed

6 74

65 (Wallensteen 1992,

p. 24). In-between these6 6 6 7 4 two clear-cut outcomes there are many other19 18 15 20 15 possibilities, includingcease-firearrangements,

inactivity of one party,low activity among the5 4 7 7 8 4 warring parties (i.e. less than 25 battle-related

2 1 1 0 4 deaths). In the statistics, changes of parties8 9 9 7 4 leading to the reclassification of the conflicts

14 17 17 15 12 are not included. Table mII hows the result.As expected the number of agreements is

s 3 1 1 1 0 low. Arriving at an amicable settlement is amajor achievement, and takes considerable

2 1 3 0 1effort. The six cases with agreements should

8 5 5 4 3 be recognized:Lebanon,Mali, Morocco/West-

20-

18-

16-

14-

0U

u

c

E

s

_ __



336 PeterWallensteen& KarinAxell

Table III. Termination f ArmedConflicts 1989-93by RegionalDistribution

Not Ter-Agree- minated

Victoryment Other Total in 1993

Europe 3 0 5 6 10Middle East 1 1 1 3 7Asia 2 0 9 11 15Africa 6 3 4 13 12CS America 5 2 1 8 3Total 17 6 20 41 47

Note: 'Other':no victory,no agreement, ctivitybelowthreshold n 1993. Excludes two conflicts in Europewherethepartieschangeddueto the dissolutionof theSoviet Union and Yugoslavia.These conflicts weretransformedo as to be coded as new ones, but wherenot 'ended'. 'Other'also includesconflictswherepar-ties have reachedagreementon procedures nd cease-

fires, but violationswere reported.

ern Sahara, Mozambique, El Salvador and

Nicaragua. Such cases of conflict resolutionhave been achieved after protractedconflict

and, in some cases, with international nvolve-

ment, by regional or internationalactors. UN

peace-keeping operationsor otherUN activitywas importantin five of these cases. In addi-

tion there were agreements also in the

category of 'other': i.e. cease-fires and agree-

ments on procedures (e.g. Moldova, Bangla-desh).

Victory was achieved in 17 of 41 cases ofconflict termination. This is low. Actors gointo armed conflicts with the expectation of

winning. Victory in a large number of casesturns out to be elusive and more difficult than

expected. In fact, non-victory outcomes to-

gether constitute the more common outcome.If we add the large number of conflicts that

were still active in 1993, victory appearseven

more elusive. However, it does occur, and ismore frequent han the reachingof agreements.In some cases, victories today appear clear-

cut anddefinitive (some regimes such as thoseof Ceausescu in Romania, Mengistu in Ethio-

pia, and Noriega in Panama were eliminated;

opponents such JVP in Sri Lanka were de-

feated; Slovenia and Eritrea achieved inde-

pendence). Sometimes that could mean that anew conflict may eventually return(Iraqwas

defeated in 1991 but refused to accept UN

conditions on the border with Kuwait; oppo-

nents were defeated in Uganda, but low level

activity continued). The higher frequency ofvictoriescompared o agreementsdoes not nec-

essarilymean more lasting peacefulconditions.There are also conflicts which show an on-

off pattern, becoming active after a lull. Atypical example is the relations between Indiaand Pakistan, with a patternof continued ten-sion. Kurdish groups in Iran show similar

cycles, as does the East Timor resistance.Whereas the ending of the Cold War imme-

diately seemed to have spurred conflicts in

many parts of the world, it also gave an im-

pulse to conflict resolution.The major powerswere interestedin extracting themselves fromlocal situations, which were now of lesser

importanceto them. There was an impetus to

resolve conflicts in Central America (e.g.Nicaragua and El Salvador), Southern Africa

(e.g. in Mozambiqueand South Africa) and inthe Middle East (following the Second Gulf

War). In other cases, outside powers with-drew leaving unsolved incompatibilities andwell-armed factions behind to fight to the

'bitter end'. In Ethiopia this resulted in thedownfall of the regime, in Angola and Af-

ghanistan it resulted in protractedwars where

no side has yet prevailed and where peaceaccords have been overturned. In Cambodia

the peace agreement gave room for nationalreconciliation,but one groupremainedantago-nistic, and thus a conflict has continued. Inthis sense, the shadow of the Cold War stillhovers over parts of the world. The resort tothe United Nations contributedto talks, settle-ments and promising peace processes in someinstances. In other cases, the local parties had

acquired sufficient autonomy not to be easilyconvinced to join a peace accord. Victory stillwas on the minds of some actors, which also

had found independent support and finances(cf. UNITA in Angola in control of the dia-

mond trade,the KhmersRouges in Cambodiawhich controls gem trade with Thailand, andfactions in Afghanistanwith obscurefinances).It seems that the responsibility for workingout solutions in these conflicts cannot only beleft to the local parties, but have to involvethe former adversaries of the Cold War.

In addition, the end of the Cold War

generated a set of new conflicts, often aroundterritorial issues. State constructions held to-

gether by Cold War tension andpolitical struc-



ArmedConflict1989-93 337

turesthrivingon external threatsdisintegrated:the Soviet Union, Czechoslovakia and Yugo-slavia were in this category. The newly cre-ated states inherited borders that previouslyhad been internal and

meaningless. Suddenlythey became importantand the willingness to

accept them was not always evident. In thatsense the dissolution of Yugoslavia and theSoviet empire was different from the

decolonization of Western Europeanempiresin Africa and Asia. In the latter case, theborderswere generally accepted and therehad

been considerable time to get used to thembefore independence. In the wake of the Yu-

goslav and ex-Soviet situations no such ac-

ceptance was immediately available in cases

where a dominant ethnic group was threat-ened with territorialdivision. Of the 18 con-flicts in Europe 1989-93, 15 were fought onthe territory of what was previously the So-viet Union and Yugoslavia. By 1994 not one

peace accord had been signed in these con-flicts, testifying to the availability of weap-ons, the complexity of the incompatibilities,and the lack of a united internationalstand onan appropriate solution. UN peacekeepingoperations covered 25 of the 90 armed con-flicts active during this period.5 In addition,

CSCE representativesand EU observers werein place in many situations. The primaryambition of the internationalcommunity ap-pears to be in these cases to avoid furtherspread of the conflicts, to provide humanitar-ian assistance, and, possibly, to work outcease-fire arrangements,giving room for re-flection and diplomatic initiatives.

Also other post-Cold War conflicts con-tinued to generate problems, and solutionsseemed to be distant. In Algeria, the conflictset Muslim groups againstthe militaryregime.In Rwanda and Somalia disintegration of thestate was close or actually took place, at greathumancost. It appearssymptomaticthat peaceaccords were achieved in some long-standingand fairly localized situations, e.g. Lebanonand Western Sahara. In these cases, there wasa greater risk of outside actors being drawninto the conflict, rather than the battlefieldspreading over a wider area. There was lesslikelihood of finding a solution to new orrecently militarized conflicts. At best, such

outcomes of these conflicts could be located

in the 'other'categories:cease-fires, withdraw-als, etc appearedthe more typical short-termoutcome, unless the conflicts simply contin-ued. Thus, Table Ill supports the notion thatit is easier to initiatearmedaction than to

stopit or return to peaceful conditions.The role of internationalorganizationsand

third parties thus might take on different di-mensions, depending on the age of the con-flicts. Conflicts initiatedduringthe Cold War,whetherpartof thatconfrontationor not, couldwell have reached a stage where more effec-tive internationalaction was welcomed. Themediation successes recorded in late 1993 or

early 1994 in the negotiations between Israel-PLO and in South Africa occurred between

partiesthatknew each other all too well. Morerecent conflicts were in more unpredictablephases and confronted an international com-

munity less attuned to the new conditions.Successes in the latter case had more to dowith containing regional effects of the con-flicts, and to limiting theirintensity, thanfind-ing lasting solutions.

NOTES

1. Revisions have been made andthe presentAppen-dix 1 replaces Table I of the previous report(Wallensteen& Axell, 1993).

2. In theSIPRIYearbook1994dataarepublished ormajorarmedconflictsin 1993, i.e. armedconflictswhere more than 1000 battle-related eathshavebeen incurredduringthe course of the conflict.There is no criterion or intensityper year.

3. In Rwanda,agreementswere concluded in mid-1993,and a UN peacekeeping perationwas putinplace.Following hekillingof a number f govern-mentmembers n 1994the conflicthas againesca-lated.

4. It canof coursebe debatedwhetherEuropehadan

historically ow level of conflicts duringthe ColdWarandthusnowbeginsto returno a more 'typi-cal' level. ProbablyJohnL. GaddisandJ. DavidSingerwouldbothagreeto sucha proposition,butwith differentexplanations; ee their contributionsin Kegley (1991).

5. A total of 25 peacekeepingoperationswere dis-patched r in place n 1989-93. Insomecases therewas no active armedconflict registered Cyprus,GolanHeights,Iran-IraqndNamibia).Most mis-sionswere sentto locationswhere ightinghadtakenplaceor continuedduring he UN operation.Somemissions overed everal onflicts e.g.UNPROFORfor ex-Yugoslavia).Some conflicts saw consecu-

tive missions(e.g. Angola,Somalia).




Appendix 1. Complete List of Armed Conflicts in the World, 1989-93*

Location/ IncompatibilityOppositionOrganization Yearof Activity

Government 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993

Europe

Azerbaijan Territory

Government

Territory

Territory

Territory

Territory

Government

Republicof Nagorno-KarabakhGovernment f Armenia

Husseinovmilitary action

SerbianRepublicof Bosnia andHerzegovinaSerbian rregulars

Yugoslavia

CroatianRepublicof Bosnia andHerzegovinaCroatia

Croatianrregulars

AutonomousProvinceof WesternBosnia

Serbian rregularsSerbianRepublicof KrajinaYugoslavia

Anti-governmentlliance2

Zviadists

Territory Republicof SouthOssetia

(SouthOssetia)

(Abkhazia) Republicof Abkhazia

Moldova Territory DniestrRepublic

Romania Government NationalSalvationFront/National rmedForce

Russia Government Parliamentaryorces

Soviet Union Territory Azerbaijani opularFront(Azerbaijan)

(Nagorno- Government f Armenia nd ANM(Armenian

Karabakh) NationalMovement)

I I MinorArmedConflict

Intermediate Armed Conflict | Major Armed Armed Conflict

War JConflict

* 0

* 0

* 0

* S

* S

0

*

*

..

*

0

* 0

m

LIZ

I I I

* Organization ctive in yearsindi-cated by a dot. (This notation sused only where two or more or-

ganizations are involved.)

With thesupport f thegovernment f Croatia,Croatianrregulars nd Muslim rregulars2 The anti-government lliancein Georgiaconsistsof a faction of the NationalGuard,the forcesof Vazha Adamiaand

Mkhedrioni.

Bosnia and

Herzegovina1

Croatia

Georgia

es




Location/ IncompatibilityOppositionOrganization Yearof ActivityGovernment 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993

Spain Territory

(Basque)

ETA (Euzkadi a Azkatasuna:BasqueNationandLiberty) I I I

United Kingdom Territory

(N. Ireland) PIRA(Provisional rishRepublicanArmy)INLA(IrishNationalLiberationArmy)

I::::::::::3::.:.^:!:;:;:;:^:;:.::1:.::;::::.:::.t:::: 1:-::::::

* * * * *I I~~

Yugoslavia Territory

(Croatia) Republicof Croatia

Croatianrregulars

(Slovenia) Republicof Slovenia

Middle East

Egypt Government

al-Cama'a al-lslamiyya(IslamicAssociation)'al-Jihad al-lslamiy(IslamicJihad,HolyWar)Tala 'i al-Fath(Vanguards f Conquest,New Jihad)

Iran Government MujahideenKhalq

Territory KDPI(KurdishDemocraticPartyof Iran)

Tenrritory

(Kurdistan) DPK (Al-hizbal Dimuqraatial-kurid:DemocraticParty

of Kurdistan)2PUK(PatrioticUnionof Kurdistan)

Government SAIRI SupremeAssemblyfor the IslamicRevolution n

Iraq)3

* * * * 0

* * * * 0

- '1''"i'i 1

?~~~~~~~~~~~~~.........

Groups oinedas PLO(MunazamatTahir Falastin:

PalestineLiberationOrganization) r withunclearrelationswithPLOe.g. UNLU(UnifiedNational

Leadership f theUprising connected o theIntifada)Othernon-PLOgroupsand/orwith unclearevel of

organization .g. Hamasand IslamicJihad

II-

* * * * I

* * * * *

* S S 0 0

Government

LebaneseArmy(Aoun)Lebanese orces

* 0

* 0

1Some 40 Muslimgroupscooperate n Gama'aal-Islamayya2 In 1987 an umbrellaorganization f eightKurdish roups, he Kurdistanront,was formed, andapart rom DPK and PUK

othergroupswithintheFrontweremilitarilyactiveduring1991 and 1992.3 Unclear numberof deaths during 1992, possibly more than 1000. SAIRI is the largest of several Shia rebel groups

reportedly ctivein Southern raq.4 Kuwait in 1991 supportedby: Argentina,Australia,Bahrain,Bangladesh,Belgium, Canada,Czechoslovakia,Denmark,

Egypt, France,Greece, Honduras, taly,Morocco,Netherlands,Niger, Norway,Oman,Pakistan,Portugal,Qatar,Saudi

Arabia,Senegal, Spain,Syria,UnitedArabEmirates,he UK andthe USA.

S

III

Iraq

*I

* 0

* m

(....:I..::....:...:.........I:

LIII l:I::-:-:::I:I:

Iraq-Kuwait4 Territory

Israel Territory

Lebanon



340 Peter Wallensteen & Karin Axell

Location/ IncompatibilityOppositionOrganization Yearof Activity

Government 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993

Druzemilitia(PSP:ProgressiveSocialistParty)

Amal

HizbollahLCP(LebaneseCommunistParty)

Groups oinedas PLO (MunazamatTahirFalastin:

PalestineLiberationOrganization)PFLP-GC PopularFront or theLiberation f Palestine

GeneralCommand)SLA(SouthLebaneseArmy)Government f SyriaGovernment f Israel

Government f Iran Revolutionary uards)

SyrianSocialistNationalistPartyLebaneseNationalResistanceFront

PopularNasseriteOrganizationLebaneseBaathParty

Territory PKK (orApocus:KurdishWorkersParty)

Government DevrimciSol (Revolutionaryeft)

* *

* *

* *

* 0

* *

* *

* 0

* 0

* 0

*.

.

0

*

1'' [

l l l

Asia

Afghanistan Government

MlujahideenAfghanistan-based)

Mujahideen Pakistan-based)

Mujahideen Iran-based)

Military action

1Iezb-i-lslamiHezb-i-Wahdat

Jumbush-eMilli

Bangladesh Territory JSSISB ParbattyaChattagram ana SanghatiSamiti:

ChittagongHillTractsPeople'sCoordination

Association/ShantiBahini(PeaceForce)

Cambodia Government

India Territory(Kashmir)

KR(KhmersRouges:RedKhmers)/PDKParty f

DemocraticKampuchea)KPNLF KhmerPeople'sNationalLiberation ront)

FUNCINPEC Front Uni Nationalpourun Cambodge

Independant,Neutre,Pacifiqueet Cooperatif:United

NationalFront or an Independent, eutral,Peaceful

andCooperativeCambodia)ANS (ArmeeNationale

Sihanoukiste:NationalSihanoukistArmy)

Kashmirnsurgentsl

* * * 0

* * * 0

* * * 0

* *

0 0

[.~~~~~~\,r................. ;..;1..,-,x,',',{...''''..'.'.'.'.'.'b..'

* * 0 * 0

* * *

* * 0

(Punjab) Sikhinsurgents2

1 A largenumberof groupsexist; according o the government, pproximately 0 in 1990, 140 in 1991 and 180 in 1992.

Someof themost important retheJammuand KashmirLiberation ront JKLF)andtheHizbulMujahideen.2 A large numberof groupsexist, reportedlymore than 24 organizations nd splintergroups in 1992. Some of the most

important re the KhalistanLiberationForce(KLF)and theKhalistanCommandoForce(KCF).

Turkey

-~~~~~~~~~~~~~??




IncompatibilityOppositionOrganization

(Assam)

ABSU (All BodoStudentsUnion)

BPAC(BodoPeople'sActionCommittee)ULFA(UnitedLiberaton rontof Assam)BSF (BodoSecurityForce)ULFA faction

(Manipur) PLA(People'sLiberationArmy)

(Nagaland/ NSCN (NationalSocialistCouncilof Nagaland)

Manipur)

(Tripura) ATTF(All TripuraTribalForce)

(Jharkhand) JharkandMuktiMorcha

Yearof Activity

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993

II~~

* S

*

* * 0

* *

* *

L li i i

l l l l l

LI

Government 111Naxalites/PWGPeople'sWarGroup) * * * * *

MCC(MaoistCommunistCentre) *

India-Pakistan Territory 1,,l:l. llll 1 II]

Indonesia Territory Fretilin FrenteRevoluciondrioTimorensede Liberta^do Ii [Z(EastTimor) e Independencia:Revolutionary ront or an

Independent astTimor)

(Aceh) Aceh Merdeka FreeAceh) Li.

Laos Government ULNLF UnitedLao NationalLiberation ront) I-I

I-

Myanmar Territory NMSP(New Mon StateParty) I I

(Arakan) Arakan nsurgents1 I I

(Kachin) KIO/KIA Kachin ndependenceOrganization/Army) |,-| |1 1 1

(Kaya) KNPP(KarenniNationalProgressiveParty) [ ]

(Karen) KNU (KarenNationalUnion/KarenNationalLiberation | I1 ]Army)2

Government ABSDF(All-BurmaStudentsDemocraticFront)

Papua New Territory BRA (BougainvilleRevolutionaryArmy)

Guinea (Bougainville)

The Philippines Government

NPA(New People'sArmy)RAM-SFP ReformMovement f theArmedForces

Soldiersof theFilipinoPeople), n 1991 renamedRAM

(Revolutionary lliancesof the Masses)

Military action

I l I

I I I I I l

* * * * 0

* * X

1 At least6 groups.RohingyaSolidarityOrganization, SO,is the largest.

2 Possiblymorethan1000deaths n 1991.

Location/Government




Location! IncompatibilityOppositionOrganization Yearof ActivityGovernment 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993

Sri Lanka Territory LTTE LiberationTigersof TamilEelam)

Government JVP(JanataVimukhti eramuna:SinhalesePeople'sLiberationFront)

Tadzhikistan Government PopularDemocraticArmy

Africa

Government

FIS(Jibhatal-lnqath;FrontIslamiquedu Salut: Islamic

SalvationFront)1

Expiationand Sin

Exile andRedemptionThe Faithfulof the SermonTheBrigadesof God

GIA(Croupeislamiquearme:ArmedIslamicgroup)

EIi* 0

0

0

0

*

Government

UNITA(UnidoNacionalpara a IndependenciaTotal de

Angola: NationalUnion for the TotalIndependence f

Angola)FNLA(FrenteNacional da Libertaaiode Angola:

NationalFront or theLiberation f Angola)

Territory FLEC Frenteda Libertacdodo Enclave de Cabinda:

Front or the Liberation f the Enclaveof Cabinda)

Ubumwe

Palipehutu Partipour la LiberationdupeupleHutu:

Party orthe Liberation f theHutuPeople)

Military action, ater n 1989developing nto Revolu-

tionaryForcesof April1st

MOSANAT Mouvement our la SalvationNationale

Tchadienne:Movement or the NationalSalvationof

Chad)2IslamicLegionCSNPD (Conseilde salut nationalpour la paix et la

democratie: Committee f NationalRevival for PeaceandDemocracy)

CNR (Comite' ational de redressement:Nationalcouncilforrecovery)

FNT (FrontNational Tchadien:ChadNationalFront)MDD (-FANT)(Mouvement our la Democratieet le

Development:Movement orDemocracy ndDeve-

lopment) Forces ArmeesNationales du Tchad: Chad

NationalArmedForces)

*

* 0

IIIS

* 0

* S

* 0

* 0

* a

* *

1 SeveralarmedIslamicgroupsarebrought ogetherunder he command tructure f theFISmilitarywing2 The militaryfactionand MOSANATjoined in an alliance,which in 1990 was namedMPS (MouvementPatriotiquedu

Salut: PatrioticSalvationMovement)and led by Deby. Deby overthrew he president n December1990 and thereafter

formed hegovernment.

Algeria

Angola

Burundi

* * * * 0

*

Government

Chad Government

l



Location/Government

Comoros

Djibouti

Ethiopia

Liberia

Mali

Mauritania-

Senegal

Morocco/

Western Sahara

Mozambique

Niger

Rwanda

Senegal

IncompatibilityOppositionOrganization

Government Presidential uard

Government FRUD(Frontde Restaurationde 1'Uniteet de la Demo-

cratie: Front or the Restoration f Unityand

Democracy)

Territory EPLF(Eritrean eople'sLiberation ront)

(Eritrea)

(Afar) ALF(AfarLiberation ront)

Government

TPLF TigrayPeople'sLiberationFront)EPDM(EthiopianPeople'sDemocraticMovement)

formingEPRDF EthiopianPeople'sRevolutionaryDemocraticFront)

Military action

EPRP EthiopianPeople'sRevolutionary arty)

OLF(OromoLiberation ront)

Government

NPFL(NationalPatrioticForcesof Liberia)'

BurkinaFasogovernmentINPLF IndependentNPFL)

Territory MPA(MouvementPopulairede I'Azaouad:Azawad

People'sMovement)

Territory

Territory FrentePolisario (PopularFront or theLiberation f

Saguiael HamraandRio de Oro,orPolisarioFront)

Government RENAMO ResistenciaNacionalMocambicana:

MozambicanNationalResistance,MNR)

Territory FLAA(Frontde Liberationde I'Airet I'Azawad:Ar ane

AzawadLiberationFront)

Government FPR(FrontPatriotiqueRwandais:RwandanPatriotic

Front)

Territory MFDC(Mouvement es Forces Democratiquesde la


Yearof Activity

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993

LI

I

Casamance:Movementof theDemocraticForcesof the

Casamance)

Sierra Leone Government RUF(RevolutionaryUnitedFront)

* * a

* * *

0

* 0

* * 0

* 0 * * 0

* 0

* .

I I

[:j:j::::::::;i::j

C I I I

1Possiblymorethan1000 deathsduring1993.

/





Somalia Government

South Africa Government

Government/

Territory

Sudan

Togo

Uganda

Territory

SNM(SomaliNationalMovement)

Military action,developing nto SPM(SomaliPatrioticMovement)

SSDF(SomaliSalvationDemocraticFront)USC (UnitedSomaliCongress) ledby Madhi)USC (UnitedSomaliCongress) ledby Aidhi) SNA

(SomaliNationalAlliance)

ANC (AfricanNationalCongress)PAC(PanAfricanistCongress

Azapo(AzanianPeople'sOrganization)

FA (FreedomAlliance)1

SPLA SPLM(SudanesePeople'sLiberation

Army/Movement)Factionof SPLA/SPLM

Government Military action

Government

Factionof UPDA(UgandaPeople'sDemocraticArmy)UPA (UgandaPeople'sArmy)HSM(HolySpiritMovement), n 1990 renamedUDCM

(UnitedDemocraticChristianMovement)and n 1991renamedUPDCA(UgandaPeople'sChristian

DemocraticArmy)

Central and South America

Colombia Government

FARC(FuerzasArmadasRevolucionariasColombianas

RevolutionaryArmedForcesof Colombia)ELN (Ejercitode LiberacionNacional: National

LiberationArmy)EPL(EjercitoPopularde Liberacion:PopularLiberation

Army)Factionof FARC

Factionof ELN

MAO(Movimientode AutodefensaObrera:Workers'

Self-DefenceMovement)QuintinLame

* 0* *

* * *

0 0

* 0 0

* * * * *

* *

* *

* * * 0

* * S

-I-)* i

* * 0

* * 0

0: 0 * 0 0

0

0

* * * 0

* 0

0

0

1 FreedomAlliance:ConservativeParty, InkathaFreedomParty,AfrikaanerVolksFrontand the leadersof the homeland

governments f BophuthatswanandCiskei.

2 No exact death iguresexist for 1993.However,all sourcespoint clearly o that hefightingcausedmorethan1000 deaths.





El Salvador Government

FMLN(Frente FarabundoMartipara la Liberaci6n * *

Nacional: FarabundoMartiFront or NationalLiberation)1

GeradoBarriosCivicFront

Guatemala Government URNG(UnidadRevolucionariaNacional I l lllliI iGuatemalteca:GuatemalanNationalRevolutionary

Unity)2

Haiti Government [ ITontonMacoute

Military action

Nicaragua Government FDN (FuerzasDemocr6ticasNicaraguenses:

NicaraguanDemocraticForces)orContras

Panama Government Military action L I

Panama-USA Government L I

Paraguay Government Military action |

Peru Government

Sendero Luminoso ShiningPath) . . . .

MRTA(MovimientoRevolucionarioTupacAmaru: a a * a a

TupacAmaruRevolutionaryMovement)

Trinidad and Government Jamaat al-Muslimeen Societyof Moslems) |

Tobago

Venezuela Government Military action(Revolutionary olivarianMovement [ i

1 FMLN consistsof ERP (EjercitoRevolucionariodel Pueblo:People's RevolutionaryArmy),FAL (FuerzasArmadasde

Liberaci6n:ArmedLiberationForces), FARN (FuerzasArmadasde Resistencia Nacional: Armed Forces of National

Resistance),FPL (FuerzasPopularesde Liberaci6nFarabundoMartf:FarabundoMartiPopularLiberationForces) and

PRTC(PartidoRevolucionariode Trabajadores entroamericanos:evolutionary artyof CentralAmericanWorkers)2 UNRG consistsof EGP (EjercitoGuerrilleros e los Pobres:GuerrillaArmyof the Poor),PGT (PartidoGuatemaltecodel

Trabajo:GuatemalanWorkersParty),FAR (FuerzasArmadasRebeldes:Rebel ArmedForces)andORPA (Organizaci6ndel Puebloen Armnas:rganization f ArmedPeople)

* The list of conflicts1989-91 is a revisedversionof Table3.1 in Heldt,1992;mostchangesare dueto the introduction f a

lower tresholdof 25 deaths.For 1989 the followingpersonswereresponsibleorchecking he locationswithmajorarmedconflicts:RamsesAmer forCambodia;BirgerHeldt forRomania,Israel/Palestine, ngola,Panama-USA;KarinLindgrenfor Iraq, Lebanon, Turkey, Bangladesh,Myanmar,Morocco/Western ahara;Kjell-Ake Nordquistfor Colombia, El

Salvador,Guatemala,Nicaragua,Peru;PeterWallensteen or UK, Afghanistan, ndonesia,Philippines,Ethiopia,Somalia,SouthAfrica,Sudan;G. KennethWilson for India,SriLanka,Chad,Mozambique,Uganda.For 1990 the followingpersonswere responsible:ChristerAhlstrtomor India, India-Pakistan;Ramses Amer for Cambodia,Laos; Birger Heldt for

Afghanistan,Angola, Liberia, Mozambique,Uganda; Karin Lindgrenfor Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Turkey, Bangladesh,

Myanmar,Morocco/Western ahara;Kjell-AkeNordquist or Israel/Palestine,Colombia,El Salvador,Guatemala,Peru;Peter Wallensteen or UK, Philippines,Ethiopia,Somalia,SouthAfrica,Sudan;G. KennethWilson for Sri Lanka,Chad.

For 1991: ChristerAhlstrom or India;RamsesAmer forCambodia;BirgerHeldtfor UK, Yugoslavia, Iraq,Iraq-Kuwait,

Afghanistan,Sri Lanka, Chad,Liberia,Morocco/Western ahara,Rwanda,Uganda;MasakoIkegami-Anderssonor Iran,

Turkey, Bangladesh;Karin Lindgrenfor Myanmar,Kjell-Ake Nordquistfor IsraeVl/Palestine,olombia, El Salvador,

Guatemala,Peru;ThomasOhlssonfor Angola,Mozambique,SouthAfrica;Peter Wallensteen or Indonesia,Philippines,

Ethiopia,Somalia, Sudan. For 1992 BirgerHeldt was responsible or checkingall locationswith majorarmedconflicts,




exceptfor thefollowingcases: ChristerAhlstrom orIndia;BjornHolmbergorIsrael/Palestine;rikMelanderfor Bangladesh,Cambodia, ran,Laos, Yugoslavia,as well as the statesof the formerSoviet Union. ErichSchultzwas responsible or the minor conflictsin Centraland SouthAmericaandAsia in 1992. An initialrevisionof the 1989-91 list, Table 3.1 in Heldt, 1992, was madeby BirgerHeldtbased on the 25 deaths

treshold,and the unclearcases were revisedby KarinAxell. For 1993 BirgerHeldtwas responsible or the

conflict locationsof Liberia,Rwanda,SudanandNorthern reland;ErikMelander or Azerbaijan,Croatia,Georgia,Tadzhikistan nd Bosniaand Herzegovina;ThomasOhlssonfor Angola and SouthAfrica;Kjell-Ake Nordquist or Colombia,Guatemala, eruandIsrael;CarlAsbergfor India;AshokSwain andSarbajitPattnaikprovidedassistance n the case of India.KarinAxell was responsible or the remainingconflictlocations.Data were collectedup to 16 May 1994.

REFERENCES

Heldt, Birger, ed., 1992. States in ArmedConflict ArmedConflicts1986-91',pp. 13-29in Heldt,1992.1990-91. Uppsala:Department f Peace and Con- Wallensteen,Peter& KarinAxell, 1993. 'ArmedCon-flict Research,UppsalaUniversity. flicts after the Cold War'. Journal of Peace Re-

Kegley, CharlesW., Jr., ed., 1991. TheLongPostwar search, vol. 30, no. 3, pp. 331-346.Peace. ContendingExplanationsand Projections. Wallensteen, eter& KarinAxell, 1994.'MajorArmedNew York:HarperCollins. Conflicts', SIPRIYearbook1994. Oxford:Oxford

Wallensteen,Peter, 1992. 'The Security Council in UniversityPress.

Appendix2. KARIN AXELL: Defining Armed Conflict1Armedconflicts are contestedincompatibilitieswhich concerngovernmentand/orterritorywhere the use of

armedforceby two parties,of whichat leastone is the government f a state,results n at least 25 battle-related

deaths2.

The separateelementsof the definitionare operationalized s follows:

(1) Use of armedorce: use of weapons n order o promote heparties'generalposition n theconflict,resultingin deaths.

(1.1) Weapons:any lethal means otherthan those of corporalstrengthand/orpsychologicalpower, e.g.manufacturedweaponsbut also sticks, stones, fire, water,etc.

(2) 25 deaths: A minimumof 25 battle-related eathsper year andper incompatibility.

(3) Actor: A governmentof a stateor any organization r allianceof organizations.(3.1) Government:Central overnment f a state,or localgovernmentn thatstate.A localgovernmentwhich

has proclaimedtself sovereignor independentromthe centralgovernment nd whose statedoes not meet the

criteriafor a 'state' indicatedbelow, is not consideredas being a state actor.(3.2) Organization:Any groupof people havingannounced namefor theirgroupandusing armed orce.

(4) State: A state is(4.1) an internationallyecognizedsovereigngovernment ontrollinga specifiedterritory,

or(4.2) an internationally nrecognized overnment ontrollinga specifiedterritorywhose sovereignty s not

disputedby another,nternationallyecognized overeigngovernmentpreviouslycontrolling he same territory.(5) Incompatibility oncerning governmentand/or territory:The incompatibility, s statedby the parties,mustconcerngovernmentand/or erritory.

(5.1) Incompatibility:he statedgenerally ncompatiblepositions.(5.2) Incompatibility oncerning government: ncompatibility oncerning ype of political system, the re-

placementof the centralgovernmentor the change of its composition.(5.3) Incompatibilityoncerning erritory: ncompatibilityoncerning he statusof a territory, .g. thechangeof the state in controlof a certain erritory inter-state onflict), secession or autonomy intra-state onflict).The conflicts in TableI are listed by locationin alphabetical rder,withinsix geographical egions:* Europe:Geographicdefinition, ncluding he states in the Caucasus.* MiddleEast: Egypt, Iraq,Iran,Israel,Lebanon,Syria,Turkeyand the statesof the ArabianPeninsula.* Asia: Geographicdefinition, ncludingAustralia,New Zealandand Oceania.* Africa:Geographicdefinition, ncludingComoros,but not includingEgypt.* Centraland SouthAmerica:Geographicdefinition, ncludingstates in the Caribbean.

The locationcolumnstatesthe governmental ctorand the oppositionorganization olumngives the opposingactoror actors.Subsetsof armedconflicts are definedas follows:* MinorArmedConflict:shownby a white rectangle.At least 25 battle-related eathsper yearand less than

1000 battle-related eathsduringthe courseof the conflict.*

IntermediateArmedConflict:shown

bya shaded

rectangle.At least 25 battle-related eaths

per yearand




an accumulatedotalof at least 1000deaths,but less than1000per year.(Whenconflictsappearas intermediatearmed conflicts after 1989 they have in most cases been reactivated fter a periodof relativeinactivity.)* War: shown by a black rectangle.At least 1000 battle-related eathsper year.* MajorArmedConflictsincludesthe two most severe levels of conflict, i.e. intermediate rmedconflict andwar.

In the case of an inter-state onflict,bothpartiesarepresentedn the location-column,witha dash between thetwo countrynames.Names of the oppositionorganizations re given in a local language, f available,and in English.For a conflict wheremultipleactors are involved,the actors'activityin a given year is indicatedby a dot.

NOTES

1. The list of conflicts 1989-93 is a revisedversionof Table 3.1 in Heldt,1992.The revisionshavebeen madein co-operationwith BirgerHeldt.Manyconflictswere excludedas a consequenceof theminimumrequire-ment of 25 deathsper year.

2. The definitionand its operationalization ere first published n Lindgren,1991, then slightly amended n

Heldt, 1992. The changeswere designedto make the definitionas shortand clear as possible. The lowerthresholdof 25 deathsper year has been introduced o increasethe reliabilityof the coding.

Appendix3. KARIN AXELL: Rejected or Ambiguous Conflicts

For most of the conflicts listed here rather hanin Table II we have reportson the use of armed orce, whileinformation n the numberof deaths s missing.In othercases the activitiesof certaingroupsareunclear,whileothergroups'activitiesin the same conflictmay be known.In the case of, for example,Fretilin n Indonesia,the activityandthe numberof deathsareknownfor the years 1989 and 1992,while it is unclear f the number

of deathsmeets the criterionduring he two yearsin between.ThereforeFretilin s found both in Appendix1and in Appendix3. Myanmar ndLaos are otherexamplesof countries ound in both lists. In Myanmar,hereare severalconflicts andmanyactive groups,but the informations scarce,as is also the case with Laos. Forsome of theseconflictsit was unclear f theymet theminimum hreshold riterion f 25 annualdeaths.Forsomeof them it was unclearwhether herewas any activityat all duringa given year.Forothers,there were morethan 25 deaths,but it was unclear f the use of force was organized.

Location Incompatibility OppositionOrganization Year of

Possible

Activity

Angola Territory FLEC-faction(FrenteNacional da Libertagdode Angola: 1993

NationalFrontfor the Liberation f Angola)

Burundi Government Military action 1993

China Territory IslamicPartyof East Turkistan 1990

(Sinkiang)

Congo Government Oppositionmilitias 1993

Haiti Government Military action(Leopard orps) 1989

Military action(Dessalinesbattalion) 1989

India Territory JharkhandCo-ordinationCommittee 1989

(Jharkhand) All Jharkhand tudentsUnion 1989

JharkhandMukti Morcha 1989, 1992

Territory TNLF(TripuraNationalLiberationFront) 1989

(Tripura) ATTF(All TripuraTribalForce) 1992

Indonesia Territory Fretilin FrenteRevoluciondrioTimorensede Libertaqaoe Inde- 1990-91

(EastTimor) pendencia:RevolutionaryFront or an IndependentEast

Timor)




Territory OPM(OrganisasiPapuaMerdeka:FreePapuaMovement) 1989-92

(WestIrian)

Iran Territory KDPI(KurdishDemocraticPartyof Iran) 1989, 1991

(Kurdistan) Komala(KurdishDemocraticPartyof Iran) 1989

Laos Government Oppositiongroup,probablyULNLF(UnitedLao National 1992

LiberationFront)

Free DemocraticLao NationalSalvationForce 1992

Libya Government Military action 1993

Mali Territory MPA(MouvementPopulairede I'Azaouad:AzawadPeople's 1991

(Azawad) Movement)

FPLA(FrontPopulairede I'Azaouad:The PopularFrontof 1991

Azawad)

FIAA(FrontIslamiqueArabe de I'Azaouad: slamicArabic 1991

Frontof Azawad)

Myanmar Government BCP(BurmaCommunistParty) 1989

Government ABSDF (All-BurmaStudentsDemocraticFront) 1993

Territory NMSP(New Mon StateParty) 1991, 1993

(Kaya) KNPP(KarenniNationalProgressiveParty) 1993

(Nagaland) Naga insurgents, probablyNSCN, National Socialist Council 1992

of Nagaland)

(Shan) SSA (ShanStateArmy) 1989-90

Niger Territory FLAA (Frontde liberationde lAir et l'Azawad:Airand 1993

AzawadLiberationFront)

Philippines Territory MNFL (MoroNationalLiberationFront) 1989-90

(Mindanao) 1993

Senegal Territory MFDC(Mouvement es Forces Democratiquesde la 1991

(Casamance) Casamance:Movementof the DemocraticForcesof the

Casamance)

Surinam Territory SLA (SurinameseLiberationArmy) 1989

Vietnam Territory FULRO FrontUni pour la Libe'ration es Races Opprimees: 1989

(Central United Front or the Liberationof the OppressedRaces)

Highlands)

SOURCES

The following general books and reports were consulted:

Amnesty International Arsrapport 1990, 1990 [Annual report 1989, 1990]. Stockholm: Amnesty International.

Brogan, Patrick, 1989. World Conflicts. London: Bloomsbury.

Gantzel, Klaus-Jurgen & Jorg Meyer-Stamer, eds, 1986. Die Kriege nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg bis 1984.

Munich: Weltforum.



ArmedConflict 989-93 349

Gunson, Phil; AndrewThompson& Greg Chamberlain, 989. The Dictionary of ContemporaryPolitics ofSouthAmerica.London:Routledge.

Geldard, an, 1990, 1991, 1992. Chronologyof Terrorism.London:INTEL.Internationalnstitute or StrategicStudies, 1990, 1991. The MilitaryBalance. London:Brasseys.Janke,Peter, 1983. Guerrilla and TerroristOrganisations:A World Directory and Bibliography.Hemel

Hempstead:Harvester.Jongman,Bert, 1982. War,Armed Conflictand Political Violence.Groningen:PolemologicalInstitute,Uni-

versity of Groningen.Kaye, G. D.; D. A. Grant& E. J. Emond, 1985. MajorArmedConflict,A Compendium f Interstateand

IntrastateConflict 1720 to 1985, ReportR95. Ottawa:OperationalResearchand Analysis Establishment,CanadianDepartmentof National Defence.

Keesings, 1983. Political Dissent. Harlow, Essex:Longman.Lindgren,Karin,ed., 1991. States in ArmedConflict1989. Uppsala:Department f Peace and Conflict Re-

search, UppsalaUniversity.Minority Rights Group, 1989. WorldDirectoryof Minorities.Harlow,Essex: Longman.Munro,David & Allan J. Day, 1990. A WorldRecordof MajorConflictAreas. London:EdwardAmrnold.Revolutionaryand Dissident Movements:An InternationalGuide,1991. Harlow, Essex: LongmanCurrent

Affairs.The Statesman'sYearbook,annual.London:Macmillan.Shafritz,Jay M.; E.F. Gibbons& GregoryE. J. Scott, 1991. Almanacof ModernTerrorism.New York:Facts

On FileSmall, Melvin& J. David Singer, 1982. Resortto Arms:International nd Civil Wars, 1816-1980. Beverly

Hills, CA: Sage.

The following journals,newspapersandnews agencieswere consulted:ACENSIAGGuatemala);AfricaCon-

fidential (London);AfricaEvents(London);AfricaWatch/Human ightsWatch London);AfricaNews (Dur-

ham); AfricaResearchBulletin (Oxford);AfricaReporter New York);AfricanDefense (Paris);AIMMozam-

bique File (Maputo);AmnestyPress (Stockholm);ArmedForces (London);Asian Defence Journal (Kuala

Lumpur);Asian Recorder(New Dehli); Balkan War Report (London);Boston Globe (Boston, MA); BBC

WorldService News (London);BurmaFocus (Oslo);BurmaIssues (Bangkok);CentralAmericaReport(Gua-

temalaCity); CentroamericaHoy, CSUCAPax (San Jose, Costa Rica); ChristianScience Monitor(Boston,

MA); ConflictInternationalEdgware);Dagens Nyheter(Stockholm);Dialog Information ervices Inc. (Palo

Alto, CA); The Economist(London);Facts and Reports(Amsterdam); ar EasternEconomicReview(HongKong); Financial Times(London& Frankfurt);TheGuardian(London);Hornof AfricaBulletin (Uppsala);

India Today (New Delhi); IndianExpress (New Delhi); Janes Defence Weekly (Coulsdon,Surrey); IDSAJournal (New Delhi); TheIndependent London); nternationalDefenceReview(Geneva);InternationalHer-

ald Tribune Paris);Jane'sIntelligenceReview(Coulsdon,Surrey); euneAfrique Paris);Kayhan nternational

(Teheran);Keesings Contemporary rchives Harlow,Essex); KNUBulletin Bangkok);Latin AmericaWeeklyReport(London);Le MondeDiplomatique Paris);Mexicoand CentralAmericaReport(London);The Middle

East (London);MIO MozambiqueNews Review (London);New Statesman& Society (London);Newsweek

(New York); MoscowNews (Moscow);New Times (Moscow);New YorkTimes(New York); NyheterfranLatinamerikaStockholm);Pacific Report Canberra);acificResearch Canberra);anoramaCentroamericano

(INCEP, Guatemala);RFEIRLResearch Report(Munich);SA. Barometer(Johannesburg); electionsfromRegionalPress (Instituteof Regional Studies:Islamabad);SouthernAfricanEconomist (Harare);Southern

Africa Political & EconomicMonthly (Harare);SouthScan(London);Der Spiegel (Hamburg);Sri Lanka

Monitor (London); The Statesman(Calcutta);SvenskaDagbladet (Stockholm);TeheranTimes (Teheran);TerrorUpdate (London);Time(New York); The Times(London);UpsalaNya Tidning (Uppsala);US News

& WorldReport (Washington,DC); WashingtonPost (Washington,DC); WeeklyMail (Johannesburg) nd

WorldAerospace& Defense Intelligence (Newtown,Conn.).

In additionwe have used variousresearch eportson particularonflictsandother nformation vailable n the

Department f Peace and ConflictResearch,Uppsala University.

PETER WALLENSTEEN, b. 1945; PhD in Political Science (Uppsala University, 1973); Dag

Hammarskjold Professor of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University (1985-). Most recent

book in English: Peace Research: Achievements and Challenges (ed., Westview, 1988). Current

research interests: armed conflict and conflict resolution.

KARIN AXELL, b. 1962; Fil.kand in Peace and Conflict Research (Uppsala University, 1991);

Research Assistant in the Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University.

Documents

Conflict Resolution in Tha Cold War - Wall Ens Teen