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Confidential 1
Pioneer Capital PartnersAn expansion stage value investor
Is there investable growth in New Zealand? How do we access it?Eriksens Conference
25 September 2012
Confidential 2
Start with what we know – the NZX
NZX profile
108 NZX All
80 Operating Companies
16Growth Companies
Financial profile
Remove:- Finance-related
companies- Investment companies- Property trusts
Select:- Companies with
three year revenue CAGR greater than 15%
Positive EBIT (#) 12Average revenue1 $61mAverage EBIT1 $7mAverage revenue growth1 28%Average EBIT growth1 31%EV/EBIT1 12.9x
Positive EBIT (#) 59Average revenue1 $173mAverage EBIT1 $13mAverage revenue growth1 5%
Average EBIT growth1 9%EV/EBIT1 11.3x
1. Trimmed average (90% of population), even weighted, all growth is 3-year historic CAGR, EBIT is normalised.Source: NZX and Reuters Knowledge (20 September 2012)
Confidential 3
What the rest of the economy looks like – Private Capital
NZ Productive Assets Valuations (bn)3
NZ Industrial Base1
Income $485bnEBIT $55bn
NZ Manufacturing1
Income $89bnEBIT $4.5bn
NZX OpCos2
Income $44bnEBIT $4.5bn
Ent. Val. $695 (13x EBIT)Debt $241 (2.8x cover) Equity $454
Ent. Val. $47 (10x EBIT)Debt $14 (3.8x cover) Equity $33
Ent. Val. $65 (14x EBIT)Debt $16Equity $49
Notes:1. Annual Enterprise Survey, Department of Statistics, 2010. Exc. ‘Financial and insurance services’2. Reuters, operating companies only3. Data for AES companies is book value, data from NZX companies from NZX
Confidential 4
Looking for growth – Manufacturing as an example
2009 2010 2011 2012-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
1%
-5%
6%
8%7%
-5%
11%
NZX Manufacturing
Gro
wth
Revenue Growth 2009 to 2012
Confidential 5
Equity funding New Zealand
Equity Inflows p.a. NZ Productive Assets
NZ Industrial Base4
Income $485bnEBIT $55bn
NZ Manufacturing4
Income $89bnEBIT $4.5bn
NZX OpCos5
Income $44bnEBIT $4.5bn
Private Capital1
Early-stage $50m
Mid-market $130mLarge PE $300m
Trade (M&A)3
NZ Target $1,608m
Other - Huge
Public (NZX)2
IPO $112mSec. $760m Other $460m
Notes:1. NZ Private Equity and Venture Capital Monitor ; 5-year average to Dec 20112. UBS estimates, company filings; 5-year average to Dec 20113. Thomson Reuters; 5-year average to Dec 20114. Annual Enterprise Survey, Department of Statistics, 2010. Exc. ‘Financial and insurance services’5. Reuters, operating companies only
Confidential 6
Method:
–1994 to 2010 – 16 years
–$675m invested into 74 companies, majority of investments were mid-market
–11 Fund managers – essentially the population
Results:
–Pooled IRR of 26.8% p.a.1, 2.13x MM (Gross)
–Six investments were >5x MM; 5 went into receivership
–Strong performance throughout period of study, best was 2000 to 2008
Gross realised returns – Private Capital is showing promise
1. Excludes two biggest investments, both LBO, that skew results (otherwise pooled IRR of 33.6%)
Confidential 7
Private Equity Access Points
Manager Latest Fund Size When Raised
Direct capital $325m Feb 2009
Maui $250m May 2012
Pencarrow $82m1 open
Pioneer $70m2 Apr 2007
Knox $60m3 From 2007
Waterman $83m Aug 2011
1. Pencarrow achieved a first close on 30Nov 2011 and is seeking to raise $100m-$150m with a final close expected late 20122. Pioneer will launch a new fund Q4 2012 with a target of $100m3. Konx has launched a new fund with a target $100-125m
Confidential 8
Investment mandate is important
Early
Markets
Expansion
TraditionalTechnology
Global Domestic
Sectors
Mature(Buy-out)
250+
0
50
Rev
enueCa
sh F
low
Pos
itive
Confidential 9
Thank you
Confidential 10
Gross realised returns - analysis
NZ PE gross realised return over time periods
Source: New Zealand Venture Investment Fund
1994-2000 2000-2004 2004-2008 2008- -
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
1.8
3.1 2.8
1.9
Gro
ss R
etur
n M
ultip
le (x
)
Confidential 11
Gross realised returns – analysis (cont.)
NZ PE gross realised return distribution 1994 to 2010
Source: New Zealand Venture Investment Fund
<0.5x 0.5x-1x 1x-2x 2x-3x 3x-5x >5x -
5
10
15
20
25
30
13
7
24
9
15
6
Real
ised
Inve
stm
ents
Confidential 12
Market activity – Mid Market
NZ mid-market activity 2003 to 2011
FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY110
50
100
150
200
250
300
Investments Divestments Average investment across all periods
Inve
stmen
t / D
ivestm
ent (
NZ$m
)
Source: New Zealand Private Equity and Venture Capital Monitor
Confidential 13
Market activity – LBO
NZ LBO activity 2003 to 2011
Source: New Zealand Private Equity and Venture Capital Monitor
FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY110
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Investments Divestments Average investment deal size (NZ$m)
Inve
stm
ent /
div
estm
ent (
NZ$
m)
Dea
l siz
e (N
Z$m
)