CONCEPTS AND CONTEXTS OF GROWTH AND SHRINKAGE€¦ · Istanbul Technical University Alperen Alan, Ayşe Tuğçe Pınar, Sedanur Albayrak, Tayfun Saman, Selin Çiftçi 1 There is a

CONCEPTS AND CONTEXTS OF GROWTH AND SHRINKAGE

Task 1: Research

OIKONET : A Global Multidisciplinary Network on Housing Research and Learning

2015

Alperen Alan

Ayşe Tuğçe Pınar

Sedanur Albayrak

Tayfun Saman

Selin Çiftçi

ISTANBUL TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY

LEARNING ACTIVITY: CONCEPTS AND CONTEXTS OF GROWTH AND SHRINKAGE, TASK 1: RESEARCH

Istanbul Technical University

Alperen Alan, Ayşe Tuğçe Pınar, Sedanur Albayrak, Tayfun Saman, Selin Çiftçi

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1. Introduction

There is a well-known fact that every

people born, grow, become weak and

die. It is related with two main concepts

called as ‘growth and shrinkage’. In

Oxford dictionary; while, growth means

development from a simpler to a more

complex stage, shrinkage means

negative change in size, amount or

value. These opposite and relevant

concepts are valid for not only biological

balance but also cities as a vital process.

Cities are affected by process of growth

and shrinkage in diversified perspectives.

Although social and political activities,

architecture, economy and social

services are existent, diversity and size of

them are completely different. To

illustrate; a person living in a growing city

is able to reach to public transformation

and any social activity easily; however, a

person living in a shrinking city has less

chance to reach public transformation in

any region for a social activity.

As seen in the figures, Istanbul has been

growing fastly in last fifty years as both

physical and demographic change.

Figure 1.b Population rates in Istanbul

Figure 1.a Growth in Istanbul

http://turkslearnenglish.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/istanbul-1300-20001.png

http://www.ibb.gov.tr/sites/airqualistanbul/Documents/eng/img/population.jpg




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While coping with these concepts in

cities, some controversial terms are

confronted. Firstly to look from a specific

perspective, urban transformation is a

common strategy for it. In application

process, some stigmatized segments of

society are forced to be displaced and

with change in user’s profiles in the

region, gentrification occurs

as a negative effect. Secondly to look

from a broad perspective, migration

between cities causes while growth in a

city, shrinkage in another. Briefly,

investigating different perspectives give

us different terms related with growth and

shrinkage.

2.Theoretical Background:

Concepts of Growth and Shrinkage

Growth and shrinkage are generally

seemed as opposite processes; however,

they are in a cyclical process that paves

way to each other to occur. To begin

with shrinkage concept, a significant

Figure 2 Characteristics of shrinking cities

http://projekter.aau.dk/projekter/files/77176815/Master_Thesis_Charlotte_Pusch.pdf p.14




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number of cities and regions have been

experiencing it across the globe.

Population loss is the most common

definition for shrinkage.

Deindustrialization, shift from

manufacturing to service industries,

suburbanization, and war, natural or

human made disaster and out migration

for different aims can be accepted

reasons that cause population loss.

Deindustrialization is a structural change

of the economy and a decline of the

producing industry without a

replacement of another type of industry.

The shift from manufacturing to service

industries increases unemployment and

decreases number of jobs in region. In

suburbanization, population is migrating

out of the city to the suburbs. It creates a

population decrease in the core city and

physical shrinkage in city. War and

natural or human made disasters also

can be reasons of population loss

because of fear or desperation. A

shrinking city has also some

Figure 3.1 Esenler which is one of the neighborhood in Istanbul 1982 and 2010

Figure 3.2 Sulukule being demolished at 2010 and as it will look after transformation as

presented by designers

http://www.enhr2011.com/sites/default/files/Paper-inceoglu,yurekli-WS09.pdf p.09

http://www.enhr2011.com/sites/default/files/Paper-inceoglu,yurekli-WS09.pdf p.10




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consequences on economy, social life

and policy seeing from the table on the

left. As a consequence of the cyclical

process; while a city is shrinking because

of these reasons, another city is growing

with consequences of these reasons.

Industrialization, geopolitical position,

natural sources, government support and

architectural landmarks can be main

reasons of growth in a city. Geopolitical

position and natural sources such as

renewable energy, agriculture, mine etc.

put forward a region or a city. Also this

positive effect can be supplied with

economy. First, industrialization gives

more job opportunities and living

allowance to people in a city. Second,

government support attracts people

directly to a region with development in

life standard. Third, giving an

architectural landmark to a city such as

museum, trade center etc. could

increase both number of inhabitants

and tourists. These three main effects

enhance the economy and

Figure 4 Some cities have shown that compact and connected urban pathways can go hand-in-hand

with economic growth: Stockholm, Copenhagen, Hong Kong

http://newclimateeconomy.report/cities/




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consequently, a city starts to grow. To

sum up, growth and shrinkage are the

concepts that have many outcomes and

incomes and they affect each other.

Relation Between Biological and Urban

Growth

The term ‘urban growth’ has some

relation with the term ‘biological growth’

in terms of conceptual basis. One main

base is connection between energy and

size. In biological growth, the bigger you

are the less energy needed per capita.

However; in urban growth, the bigger you

are the more energy needed per capital

.It means that renewal in biology is more

recoverable than renewal in urban

context. For instance, size and heart rate

has inverse proportion in biology. On the

contrary, walking speed and population

size has direct proportion. That is to say

that as city grows; people are getting to

walk faster and faster. The cycle on the

left explains how cities keep growing non-

stop. Every innovation in the cities such

Figure 5

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyCY6mjWOPc




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a development in economic, social

services and transportation block stability

and maintain growing in a time period.

Distances between these periods are

getting to shrink gradually. This means

that the cities have a probability to suffer

a heart attack in anytime. To make a

deduction, not to have a heart attack or

to pass this process healthy, cities should

take a controlled precaution according

to the situation.

3. Case Studies

Growth and shrinkage have been

seen in various forms in different cities,

regions and countries. Each case occurs

with specific reasons and gives rise to

different consequences. There are

various approaches to urban shrinkage

and growth processes. While some of

them are coping with shrinkage and

trying to re-growth, some are planning

according to smart shrinkage policies.

Also growth can be seen in cities in




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different ways such as planned or

uncontrolled. In this section, diverse case

studies around Europe, USA and Turkey

are examined.

3.1 Shrinkage

3.1.1 Europe

3.1.1.1 Schwedt: Pioneer of

Deconstruction

Socialist Unity Party of Germany (SED)

established biggest industrial plant in

Schwedt which was small rural town and

destroyed in II. World War. With its

petroleum and paper industry, city’s

population became 55.000. For the

urgent housing needs, most of the units

were constructed with prefabricated

elements.

After reunification, economical changes

brought about reduction of employment

in the main industries; therefore,

unemployment rates have risen

dramatically. Outmigration especially to

Figure 6

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Bev%C3%B6lkerungsentwicklung_Schwedt.pdf




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western parts of Germany due to

potentially higher quality of life and

job opportunities has been the main

reason of population loss. Nowadays, the

population is around 32.000 which is %35

less than 1989 which has affected the

facilities in the city. For example,

Wiechmann&Pallagst (2012) state, “in the

1990s, six day-care facilities for children

and two schools were closed. By 2001,

more than 3.000 apartments had

become vacant, approximately 13% of

the local stock” (p. 268).

As the strategy the city has focused on

housing units, their aim is to keep housing

stock durable and rentable via extensive

demolition. City administration and two

city-owned housing companies have

been supporting the process. For

example, in 1999 one of the distressed

housing area including 10100 apartments

at the edge of the city were selected as

redevelopment project site. 2850

apartments were demolished and some

of units’ function was changed. In this

Figure 7 Demolition of vacant blocks in Schwedt

http://www.strassenkatalog.de/panoramio/schwedt_oder-abriss_plattenbau_thomas-

mann-strasse_04-2002,35456944.html




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way, other residential areas would be

stabilized. For the last 5 years, 5400

apartments were demolished and rate of

vacancy has been decreased

%5.4 in 2008 by the support of state.

Therefore, this demolition strategy can be

seen as pragmatic approach to the

reality of shrinkage.

3.1.2 USA

3.1.2.1 Youngstown as Shrinking

Smart in the USA

Youngstown is a city that locates in the

state of “Ohio”. It is in a region of the

United States that is often referred to as

the Rust Belt. Traditionally known as a

centre of steel production, Youngstown

was forced to redefine itself when the U.S.

steel industry fell into decline in the 1970s,

leaving communities throughout the

region without major industry. The peak

point of population in 1950s was 168.330.

Nowadays, population is around 65.000.

Figure 8 Population decline in Youngstown

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Youngstown,_Ohio

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rust_Belt




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The city has experienced a decline of

over 60% of its population since 1960s

with the downturn of steel industry.

Today, city has problems due to dramatic

decline in population and economy;

additionally, it has no chance to gaining

significant population rise. The main

problems can be listed as: large number

of vacant industrial and residential areas

and buildings, maintaining oversized

infrastructure.

Especially for the USA, planning based

on growth is the main strategy. Molotoch

(1976) speculated that ‘the political and

economic essence of virtually any given

locality, in the present American context,

is growth… The very essence of locality is

its operation as a growth machine.’ (p.

10). Therefore, whether the city is

growing or shrinking, also not considering

the city’s scale, planning of the city is

generated with the aim of city’s growth.

However, as mentioned previously

Youngstown has no chance to grow

again, the city planning was generated

Figure 9 Current Urban Farming Activity in Youngstown

www.globalgreen.org Urban and Agriculture fesibility study for Youngstown, Ohio




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on the concept of ‘shrinking smart’ which

is called first time in USA.

Wiechmann&Pallagst (2012) state that

there are 4 main themes that

Youngstown has been following:

accepting that Youngstown is a smaller

city, defining role of Youngstown under

new regional economic structure,

improving Youngstown’s image

and quality of life, and calling for action

(p. 275). Therefore, new green zones and

parks are designed and existing local

business such as health, education,

public administration and cultural sectors

are strengthened. For instance,

Mahogany River was transformed for

recreational purposes. Generally,

industrial areas are transformed, but

vacant residential areas are kept which is

different approach than Germany’s. Due

to any population increase, these areas

will be used, with purpose of not

construct new areas.

Figure 10.1 Suburbanisation growth in Detroit

Figure 10.2

http://tr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Detroit




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3.1.2.2 Detroit as Shrinking Continuously

Detroit is a city locates in state of

‘Michigan”. The population of metro pole

is around 4.2 million, though the city

center is around 700.000 and has been

shrinking since 1950s. In the beginning of

20th century, the mass production of

automobiles by ‘The Big Three’ (General

Motors, Ford, Chrysler) attracted mass of

population from Europe and different

areas of America. After World War II, the

planning strategy of the city changed,

constructing skyscrapers in the center

and moving factories to the suburbs. New

high ways connecting suburbs to the

center was constructed. With these

developments, white middle class left the

center behind their empty houses. Later,

car industry could not compete with

strong Asian car industry, capacity of jobs

was dying out, the white middle class

were gone due to the city center’s being

heavily depend on car industry and

everything that shifted to the suburbs.

http://www.ess.co.at/URBANECOLOGY/Simona_Schett.pdf

Figure 11




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City become a ghetto for unemployed

black people, dominated by violence,

empty houses and abandoned areas. In

the 1980s the government tried to get

some companies back into town by

offering tax deduction. With the Pole

town-building (General Motors), the new

Chrysler factory and Ford’s Renaissance

Park, there were a few structures built in

the city center, but they couldn’t provide

enough jobs. Schett (2012) emphasizes

that there have been open housing

projects and anti-discrimination-laws

recently; however, results of

suburbanization, deindustrialization,

racism, high rates of violence and

unemployment brought about

devastating statics: “Between 1950 and

2000 the inner city of Detroit lost 147 000

houses due to demolishing or arson.

During this period about 1 000 000 new

houses were built in the suburbs. Since

1969 there have been 167 130 demolition

permits and 3 540 building permissions in

the inner city of Detroit. Between 1980

and 1990 there have been 0 – 13 building

Figure 12

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22518884




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permissions each year in the inner city of

Detroit. It’s been 10 000 each year in the

suburbs. In 1999 the average annual

income per capita in Detroit was only

half of the average annual income per

capita of the suburbs. Since 1960 Detroit

lost 165 000 of 230 000 industrial jobs. The

service sector only offered 30 000 new

ones. The suburbs gained 50 000 industrial

jobs and 600 000 jobs in the service sector

since 1960”( p. 9). Comparing Detroit with

Youngstown’s, both examples have the

same origin of problem, fall of the

dominant industry. But in the Detroit

example, suburbanization is also a strong

element of population loss in the city

center. As a solution strategy,

Youngstown has adopted rightsizing

strategy and tried to increase quality of

life; though, Detroit has no master

strategy for shrinking. To sum up, Detroit

should have master plan for negative

results of dramatic shrinking as

Youngstown has been doing. This strategy

should focus on not growing and

population increase, but the less




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population of the future. Maybe with this

strategy, negative population rate can

turn into positive.

3.2 Growth

3.2.1 Europe

3.2.1.1 Leipzig as Regrowth After Long

Term Shrinkage

The first case study is about regrowth of

Leipzig, Germany. Leipzig was one of the

best known and most frequently studied

cases of urban shrinkage in Europe.

Rink,Haase,Bernt,Arndt&Ludwig (2011)

illustrate that its population had been

declining for almost seven decades, a

process that had already started before

World War II. In 1933, Leipzig had 713,000

inhabitants; in 1998, there were only

437,000 left. This population decline

mainly had economic and political

reasons. After World War II, Leipzig

became part of the German Democratic

Republic (GDR).With the fall of socialist

Figure 13 Timeline of important events in Leipzig since the late 1980s

http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/3622/1/Leipzig_city_report_(final).pdf




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GDR, suddenly the city was back in

Central Germany again, re-connected to

the western half of Europe and the

democratic-capitalist world.

In the early 2000s, the first signs of

‘regrowth’ became apparent. It started

‘artificially’ with the annexation of some

of Leipzig’s suburban neighbors: as a

result, in 1999, Leipzig’s population

suddenly grew with about 50,000 people.

The new suburban areas were built in

high densities to make them as profitable

as possible, often at unattractive and

badly accessible locations. After the

favorable subsidy and tax regulations

were stopped, a move to the suburbs

became much less attractive. A move to,

or staying in the city, became a more

attractive alternative: the huge

investments made in urban regeneration

since the 1990s started to pay off in the

2000s. Especially young people moved

from rural areas and smaller cities to the

largest East-German cities like Berlin,

Dresden, Leipzig or Erfurt.

From that time onwards, Leipzig

Figure 14 Major public sector investments in Leipzig and surroundings

http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/3622/1/Leipzig_city_report_(final).pdf




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developed different strategies to cope

with shrinkage and to adapt the built

structures to the declining demand using

federal subsidies to demolish vast

numbers of vacant flats. Other

appearances of shrinkage are the

oversupply of infrastructure and the high

number of (inner‐city) brownfields that

have to be prepared for re‐use (either

commercial, residential, or recreational

as parks, playgrounds or urban

woodlands).

3.2.1.2 Manchester as Regrowth After

Fall of Cotton Industry

Since the end of the 18th century

Manchester was known for its machine-

based manufactured cotton goods

which was one of the most important

factors of Britain’s industrialization.

According to Schett (2012), in 1913

Manchester was the centre of the global

cotton market, 65% of the global cotton

clothes’ production was based in the

Manchester area. But 45% off all goods

Figure 15

http://www.shrinkingcities.com/fileadmin/shrink/downloads/pdfs/WP-II_Manchester_Liverpool.pdf




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was shipped to only one country: India.

When the First World War made it

impossible to keep up with the export, the

Indian market was taken over by Japan

and some local companies.

The impacts were loss of 150 000 jobs and

factories and economy shaft to service

sector (banking and consulting services).

Manchester shrank by nearly 50%. The

unplanned suburbanization and the

establishment of new middle-class

suburbs was followed by planned

resettlement of people to newly build

public housing areas outside the city as

the living standard in their former houses

was horrible.

Soon a rehabilitation progress started.

The former Trafford Park was renamed

Salford Quays and a new complex of

leisure facilities and business premises

were built. Today the Lowey Centre – a

complex with two theatres, art galleries,

shops, cafes and restaurant – has

become a highlight in the former

industrial harbour and due to the business

premises there are still jobs offered.

Figure 16

http://www.shrinkingcities.com/fileadmin/shrink/downloa

ds/pdfs/WP-II_Manchester_Liverpool.pdf




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Prestigious buildings with focus on sport,

leisure and culture should help

Manchester to get back on top again.

With Manchester United earning global

fame they concentrated on big sport

events and applied to the Olympic

Games 1996 and 2000 and in 2002 they

finally hold the Commonwealth Games.

Therefore a lot of big sports arenas were

built. But they also came up with a

cultural strategy

which led to few more prestigious

buildings like the Bridgewater Concert

Hall (1990), MEN Arena (1996), PrintWorks

(2000) or the extinction of the

Manchester Art Gallery (2002)

In this example we can say that

Manchester had faced an economic fall

in their best industry. After a shrinking

process (job and population loss) they

focus on sport, leisure and culture fields

and built some urban catalyst projects

that create attraction to city.




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3.3 Shrinkage and Growth

3.3.1 Turkey

3.3.1.1 Istanbul and Northern Cities in

Turkey

The population growth causes lots of

problems about using limited resources all

around the world. While industrialization

and mechanization of the agriculture

lead to the excess of labour, because of

the business, housing, education, cultural

and communication opportunities of

urban settlements, this excess is oriented

to cities and created local

accumulations. To satisfy the needs of this

stack and to prevent the possible

problems, bring out new physical, social

solutions and changes in cities.

In this context, Tekeli (1994) claims that

the early years of Republic of Turkey, the

duration between 1920 and 1940, by the

social and economic plan

Figure 17 Conceptual Map of Turkey

http://istifhanem.com/tag/murat-guvenc/




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decisions of the central government,

Istanbul lost its feature of being capital,

this situation causes the shrinkage of

Istanbul. On the other hand, after 1950's,

by the agency of foreign investments

made Istanbul as a centre of attraction.

By the following years, industrialization

and population move to Istanbul again.

After 1980s, because of the outsourcing

policies of the governments, and Tourism

Encouraging Laws, Istanbul continued its

growing frequently.

In this process, a high rate population

who were living in cities northern of

Turkey, such as Trabzon, Samsun,

Kastamonu, immigrate to Istanbul to live

under good life and economic

conditions. For example lots of people

from Kastamonu,in 1960s and 1990s,

owing to leaving of the non-Muslim

population from Balat, İstanbul to other

countries or the other parts of the Istanbul

in 1940s, immigrated to Balat to work and

live. To support this, in that years, every

Sunday, people began to establish

Kastamonu Bazaar in Balat . While this




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situation creates insuperable growing of

Istanbul, the other eastern cities of the

country come face to face of shrinkage.

3.3.1.2 İzmir

The concept of 'urban shrinkage’ is

furnished references to cities which ones

lost their populations due to various

reasons. While urban decision-making is

debating the growth cities, 'urban

shrinkage' is raised a point of order as an

important issue. Associated with this,

some groups in Europe (COST TU803) is

making studies to have a good grip of

this shrinkage process and suggest some

solutions to the problems it finds out in

shrinkage cities. Despite of this new

interest of the world to this concept, in

Turkey it not one of the most important

items of the agenda. Among other

reasons which provide cities growing, it

can be understandable why it is not a

debatable question. On the other hand,

especially in recent years, the metro

poles of Turkey encountered lots of

Figure 18 The Number of Buildings in İzmir and Turkey

According to construction permits, 1980-2010

https://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12614522/index.pdf




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changings because of technological

advances, commerce and economic

developments. One of this changed

metro poles is İzmir.

In this process, İn Izmir, brings out some

'urban zones' and 'focused urban

development'. Otherwise, the other parts

of the city is transforming in different

ways. While metro pole is growing and

declared parts of the city is articulating to

this growing process, some parts of the

city begins shrinking and losing their

importance. In addition to this, this

shrinking affects the surroundings of the

'shrinkage zone' and also the centre of

the city. Oztakan (2012) states that

according to researches of Tubitak-Cost

Project, the reasons of this shrinkage

process is Izmir is economic

reconstruction. The researches state that,

because of the economic resources

spread through the city wall, the centre

of the city begins to loose population

towards to satellite cities. Although this

situation creates new occasions in that

'zones', it could not prevent the shrinkage




24

in city center. The graphic owned to the

dissertation of Penpecioglu from METU,

illustrates the decreasing of the building

constructions in Izmir, while it is growing in

country-wide.

3.3.2 Europe

3.3.2.1 Berlin and Cottbus:

Conjugate growth and shrinkage

Cottbus is a city where located in South

Germany. According to 2010 census,

population of Cottbus is around 100.000.

Today, the city is known as university city

to Brandenburg University of Technology.

The distance between Berlin and Cottbus

is around 125km. According to 2014

census, population of Berlin is around 3.5

million. After general description above,

Berlin and Cottbus can be surveyable

cities under two main titles: growth and

shrinkage. Clearly, it is obvious that Berlin

is a growing city and Cottbus is

decrescent city. The important point for

observing these cities is how the relations

Figure 19 Figure ground plans of Berlin since 1940

Book: Berlin, Alexanderplatz : transforming place in a unifed Germany / Gisa

Weszkalnys




25

between these concepts and cities are.

To start with, Richardson&Nam (2014)

states, government pecuniary support to

German shrinking cities like Cottbus in

order to urban rehabilitation

programmes. This statement is evidential

reasoning for approaches to decline and

suggestions to cope them. In addition,

ratio of decrement in Cottbus population

proof that how fast become smaller in

human population context. In Berlin

growth and decline could come up

together. The history of city is actually

dividing the history of city’s urbanization.

According to Ganser&Piro (2012),

suburbanization in Berlin was very

restricted before the fall of the Berlin Wall,

and after the fall of the wall,

suburbanization was increased. They also

emphasize that the unification of city had

not desirable effect of growing the city.

To conclude, growth and shrinkage

related to these two cities and they are in

a dynamic relationship.

Figure 20 Population Change of Cottbus

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cottbus




26

4. How to Cope with Growth and

Shrinkage?

The general approach to answer this

question probably be exists by examine

problems of these phenomenon’s

thoroughly. There are several problems

exists on these phenomenon’s in terms of

social and physical/spatial aspects.

However, some problems come into

prominence more than others. Spatial

planning, Social instability, Infrastructure

vproblems and Transportation problems

are main issues for growth, Squalidness,

Cultural evanescence and increasing

weak places are main issues for shrinkage

conjugately. However, way of coping

with these phenomena’s not only involves

problems, it also have opportunities. For

instance, population increasement of

cities could be contributed for its cultural

activities through opening more places

such as, theatres, operas, musicals etc... It

can be considering that directly

opportunity for inhabitants’ social lives.

Another fact as opportunity is, for




27

shrinkage, reutilization of vacant buildings

areas contributes revitalizationof city. As

an example, Rößler (2008) states that

green areas density rise with attention on

these areas correspondingly in shrinking

cities. To sum up, probing problems and

observing opportunities of these

concepts, utilize overcoming these two

terms.

5. Conclusion from Architectural

Perspectives

Taking all information into the

consideration, architecture of cities

should be easily adapted to the process

of growth and shrinkage. Sustainability

being one of the most striking issues of

today and tomorrow is an important

factor while these phenomenon’s are

being solved. To begin with shrinkage,

vacant structures and areas can be

transformed into sustainable and livable

systems. Green highway park in New York

is an example of philosophy of

transformation. As a proposal, vacant




28

industrial areas in shrinking cities could be

transformed to a space including social

activities and gathering. To continue with

growth, city planning should be

designed not for only physical aspects

but also with sustainable sensation.

Buildings that are necessary to be

preserved and will be built in the future

should respect existing environmental

context with new sustainable technology

and systems.




29

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309-332.

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