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COMSTAC Risk Management Working GroupOctober 28, 2009
Chris Kunstadter
XL Insurance
Page 2 Apr 21, 2023
Risk Management Working Group
Extension of CSLA indemnification Three-year extension passed House and sent to
Senate
Combined Meeting with Space Transp Ops WG Orbital debris mitigation for upper stages
Current practices and guidelines Characterization of current environment
Page 3 Apr 21, 2023
Upper Stage Debris RisksNASA’s viewpoint
Debris is not yet imminently catastrophic, but mitigation should be initiated
Without mitigation, risk increases dramatically in the long term
International consensus (USG, NASA, ESA, IADC, UN) exists for the proper disposal of launch vehicle orbital stages
Passivation
Short-term presence in LEO (<25 yrs) and GEO (>235+ km)
Limitation of re-entry risks (casualty ratio: 1 in 10,000)
US launch vehicle operators generally doing a good job in all three areas
Formal evaluations for all commercial missions would be beneficial
Greatest challenge [for US launch vehicles] is the reentry risk for Delta 4 and Atlas 5 orbital stages
Page 4 Apr 21, 2023
Growth of Tracked Object PopulationObjects >5-10 cm
Average growth rates:
1961 – 2007: 220 objects/year
2007 – 2009: 2,200 objects/year
Page 5 Apr 21, 2023
Low Earth Orbit Debris Issues
Low earth orbit (LEO) is increasingly used for commercial (and insured) activity
20 insured commercial satellites (out of >2,000 active satellites) in LEO are insured for $1 billion
Typically commercial imaging (e.g., Digitalglobe, GeoEye), but communications (e.g., Iridium, Globalstar, Orbcomm) is growing
LEO has high spatial density and relative velocity, but “self-cleaning” at lower altitudes
Density is highest between 700 and 900 km
Page 6 Apr 21, 2023
Geostationary Orbit Debris Issues
Most commercial (and insured) communications satellites are in geostationary orbit (GEO)
150 insured satellites (out of 300 active commercial satellites) are insured for $16 billion
Lower spatial density and relative velocity, but limited area and no “self-cleaning”
Due to “libration points” (points of stable drift orbit), GEO satellites tend to concentrate at 75° east and 105° west longitude if not maintained
~1,000 tracked objects in GEO, and many more untracked
~175 tracked objects “trapped” at libration points
Page 7 Apr 21, 2023
Insured Values in GEOIn 10° increments, as of June 1, 2009
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,5001
80°-
19
0°
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040
°-0
50
°
050
°-0
60
°
060
°-0
70
°
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($ m
illio
ns)
Amer
ica
sEM
E
AAsi
a/
Pacifi
c
L L
L = location of libration points (positions of stable drift orbit)
Page 8 Apr 21, 2023
Who’s Doing What?
NASA, ESA – developing guidelines and policy
IADC – inter-governmental co-ordination
UN COPUOS – treaty oversight
USSTRATCOM/JSPOC – tracking objects
Launch vehicle and satellite operators – refining operational procedures
Technical services companies – developing tracking and analysis tools
FAA AST/COMSTAC – investigating effects on commercial space
Page 9 Apr 21, 2023
Space Law and Debris Issues
International space treaties were developed in the ’60s and ’70s, when governments dominated space activity Saw liability as a citizen of one state being injured by the space activity of
another state, and resolving liability issues through diplomatic channels (i.e., state-to-state claims)
Space activity is now heavily commercial Space treaties facilitate resolution of disputes over liability, but no obligation to go
via convention
Issues in the event of a collision between two objects Determination of cause and proof of liability are difficult
If purchased, first party insurance would typically cover the owner of a damaged satellite for the asset (subject to policy terms)
Loss of revenue, consequential loss, incidental damages, loss of market might be recoverable through other party’s TPL insurance
Page 10 Apr 21, 2023
Q&A
Thank you!
