Computer-Aided Tools for Solving Computer-Aided Tools for Solving Environmental Security ProblemsEnvironmental Security Problems

Eugene Levner Eugene Levner

Holon Institute of Technology Holon Institute of Technology

Holon, IsraelHolon, Israel

Workshop SONET .Scalica, Slovakia, September 2008

OUTLINE

1. Definitions 1.1. Definitions of “green supply chain”, “environmental risk”, and “house-of– risks”. 1.2 An illustrative example

2. Descriptions of Two Environmental Problems 2.1 The Jordan River Problem. 2.2. The Dead Sea Problem.

3. Two OR models 3.1. Risk mitigation planning for the Jordan River Problem (the facility layout and

multiple-choice knapsack problems) 3.2. Environmental risk minimization for the Dead Sea Problem (the multi-portfolio

choice model).

4. Conclusions and Open Questions.

1. MAIN DEFINITIONS

1.1 Supply Chains

A Supply Chain (SC) means:

“a global network of stakeholders - suppliers, manufacturers, transporters and customers - that function and cooperate with each other in order to improve their material and information flows with the aim to reach a compromise between the lowest cost, the best benefits and the smallest risks”.

(Levner&Proth, 2003)

Supply Chains

Thus, the main components of the supply chain are:

Material requisition and supply, Manufacturing and packaging, Distribution and transportation, Customer service, and Waste treatment, reuse, and disposal.

A chain-like supply chain

Raw Materials Industry

Distribution Consumer

Waste Disposal

→ → →

1.2 Environmental (“Green”) Supply Chains

Environmental (“Green”) Supply Chain (ESC) means a supply chain in which environmental protection issues are incorporated into the supply chain structure, and the environmental dimension is viewed as an inseparable part of business performance at all stages of the supply chain management. (Bloemhof et al. 1995,

Carter&Narasimhan 1998, Levner&Proth 2003).

Environmental Supply Chains

The concept of ESC introduces new decisions for suppliers and manufacturers in the supply chains necessary to decrease waste flows and the environmental pollution, even beyond their direct sale and delivery interests.

1.31.3 . .Aqua-logistics Supply Aqua-logistics Supply ChainsChains

The Aqua-logistics Supply Chain (ALSC) means a special class of the environmental supply chains describing a life cycle of water: extraction, distribution, utilization, re-use and disposal.

A General ALSCA General ALSC

“Raw material” – Water in water sources

“Manufacturing” - Pumping and water preparation

Water transportation and distribution

Consumers- – industry, agriculture

Secondary and tertiary wastewater recycling

Treated wastewater transportation and distribution

Wastewater transportation

Consumers - municipal use

Consumers - tourism

-Consumers- – agriculture, irrigation, parks, etc.

Wastewater disposal

1.4. What is the Environmental Risk ?

Environmental Risk Definitions

Risk is a likelihood that a course of actions (a lack of thereof) will result in an undesired event (US EPA 1998, 2002).

Environmental Risk is defined as a two-dimensional array consisting of: (1) a probability of a threat to human health, to the natural environment - air, water, and land - upon which life depends, and to health of flora and fauna, and (2) a magnitude of losses (Levner and Proth 2003, 2005, Ganoulis and Levner, 2007).

Qualitative Risk Matrix Qualitative Risk Matrix Amount of Pollution Amount of Pollution

& Probability of Damage& Probability of Damage

Probability of Damage

20 40 100

0.1

0.3

0.5

0.7

0.9

Impact = Amount of Pollution

The matrix serves to rank the risks: the green tier denotes low level, grey – acceptable, yellow - high, red – very high. The matrix has the capability to evaluate the effectiveness of risk mitigation measures; white ellipses correspond to three different situations defined by three different risk-aversion strategies: a passive strategy leaves the risk level very high, a moderate policy decreases it to high, while an active strategy makes it acceptable.

[THIS COLORING IS OUR FIRST MAIN ASSUMPTION]

Integrated Eco-Risk Index

R = j=1,…, 5 r=1,…, R wjr Rjr ,

where j is index of ecological risk classes j=1,…5 (human health, crops,

animals, nature, infrastructure), and r is index of risk subclasses (age, diseases, professions, areas, etc.)

wjr is weight, or importance

R and Rjr are damage value (in physical or monetary units, or rating scale)

[THIS SUMMATION IS OUR SECOND MAIN ASSUMPTION]

““House of Risks” House of Risks”

for defining integrated risk magnitudefor defining integrated risk magnitude

Weights

0.8

0.05

0.05

0.05

0.05

Risk R1

Risk R3

Risk R4

Risk R5

Risk R2

Absolute risk value

Costs

Transport

Consumers Irrigation

SewageWater Quality

Water Quantity

Food ExposureRisk factor 1

Risk factor 2

Risk factor M

Rows depict Risk classes. Columns – Risk factors, Risk sources

2. Descriptions of Two Environmental Problems

• 2.1 The Jordan River Problem.

• 2.2. The Dead Sea Problem.

2.12.1 . .The Jordan River: The Jordan River: A general descriptionA general description

• The Jordan River is a river in Southwest Asia flowing through the Great Rift Valley into the Dead Sea.

• Historically and religiously, it is one of the world's most important rivers, where Christians believe Jesus was baptized. The waters of the Jordan are an extremely important resource to the dry lands of the area belonging to Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Israel and the Palestinians.

The Jordan RiverThe Jordan River

The Jordan River ProblemThe Jordan River Problem In modern times the waters are 70 to 90%

used for human purposes and the flow is much reduced. Moreover, the river is heavily polluted and in its lower part, just raw sewage and runoff water from agriculture are flowing into the river. Most polluted is the 60-mile downstream stretch - a meandering stream from the Sea of Galilee to the Dead Sea.

The Jordan River ProblemThe Jordan River ProblemEnvironmentalists say the practice has

almost destroyed the river's ecosystem.

“The Jordan River will disappear if nothing is done soon. More than half of it is raw sewage and runoff water from agriculture. What keeps the river flowing today is sewage” -Friends of the Earth, Midddle East.

The Jordan River Problem (1)The Jordan River Problem (1)The overall goal is:

To develop an OR-based multi-criteria optimization model for integrated management of water resources for the Lower Jordan Valley

Specific Objectives:

• To design the water balance for all main water sources and provide a list of water saving strategies in the Jordan River Basin, (including innovative technologies for waste water treatment, alternative agricultural and irrigation techniques, desalination and water treatment stations, intensive rainwater harvesting, etc.)

• Using the supply chain and House-of-Risks approach, evaluate the social, economical and ecological risks of different water resources utilization scenarios, at present and in the future.

• Provide a comprehensive OR–based optimization model as a flexible tool for scientifically motivated and fair water allocation between all the water stakeholders in the Jordan River Basin.

The Jordan River Problem (2)The Jordan River Problem (2)

The Dead Sea Problem (2)The Dead Sea Problem (2)

Main Threats to the Dead Sea• - water pumping from Lake Kinneret and

the Yarmouk River for water supply has created a water deficit about 800 million cubic meters per year;

• - industrial solar evaporation ponds at Chemical Works are responsible for about 20% of the total evaporation of Dead Sea waters;

• -additional threats come from the uncoordinated tourism industry, hotels, transport, road building, etc.

33 . .Two OR ModelsTwo OR Models

• 3.1. Risk mitigation planning for the Jordan River (the facility layout and multiple-choice knapsack problems)

• 3.2. Environmental risk minimization for the Dead Sea Problem (the multi-portfolio choice model).

Risk-Oriented Optimization ModelsRisk-Oriented Optimization Models

• Which risk-mitigating strategies to select?• Which water treatment facilities to use?

• Which water/wastewater technologies to use?

in orderTO MINIMIZE INTEGRATED REGIONAL RISK IMPACTSTO MINIMIZE INTEGRATED REGIONAL RISK IMPACTSTO MINIMIZE TOTAL COSTSTO MINIMIZE TOTAL COSTSTO MINIMIZE UNCERTAINTY TO MINIMIZE UNCERTAINTY ((“variance of returns“variance of returns from from

the portfolio of chosen strategies, facilities and the portfolio of chosen strategies, facilities and technologies technologies x”x”))..

under budgetory, technological, resource, legal and under budgetory, technological, resource, legal and social constraints.social constraints.

A General Framework for A General Framework for Two ProblemsTwo Problems

Facility Location ProblemFacility Location Problem Objectives• (1) Minimize the total cost (facility

building + connections)

• (2) Minimize the environmental risk involved

) involved risks ntal(environmemin

costs) connectioncosts creating(min

CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS

• There are many ways to generalize, extend and

customize the strategy selection problems using different CAD tools (MIP, FLP, MC2KP, etc.) mentioned above. The main problem to be studied in the future is to correctly describe the semantic values of risk impacts and to find a compromise between different water stakeholders interests (criteria) in the multi-criteria optimization problems.

Bibliography

1. K.-H. Elster, E.G. Gol’shtein, E. Levner, et al., Modern Mathematical Methods of Optimization, Akademie Verlag, Berlin, 1993, 416 pp.

2. E.Levner, I. Linkov and J.-M. Proth, Strategic Management of Marine Ecosystems, Springer, Berlin, 2005, 313 pages, ISBN 1-4020-3157.

3. E.Levner, J.Ganoulis, I.Linkov, Y. Benayahu, Multi-objective risk/cost analysis of artificial marine systems using decision trees, in I. Linkov (ed.), Risk Management Tools for Environmental Security, Critical Infrastructure and Sustainability, Springer, 2007.

4. D. Gluch, Construct for Describing Software Development Risks, Technical Report, CMU, 1994 . 5. H. M. Markowitz, Portfolio selection, Journal of Finance, Vol. 7, No.1, pp.77-91, 1952. 6. Rockafellar, R. and Uryasev, S., Optimization of conditional Value-at-Risk, Journal of Risk, No. 2, pp. 21–42, 2000.