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Complexity, Uncertainty & Surprises
Jan Rotmans Jan Rotmans
CopenhagenCopenhagen, 15-05-2007, 15-05-2007
Complexity
arises from increasing interaction among:arises from increasing interaction among:
(i)(i) actors of different kinds that try to steeractors of different kinds that try to steer
and influence each other at different levelsand influence each other at different levels
(ii)(ii) interwovenness of interwovenness of economiceconomic, , technologicaltechnological,,
ecological ecological and and institutional institutional processesprocesses
(iii) autonomous trends and processes at different(iii) autonomous trends and processes at different
scalesscales
Surprises
symptoms of complexitysymptoms of complexity
analysing complex patterns across domains, scalesanalysing complex patterns across domains, scales
provides insights into seeds of changeprovides insights into seeds of change
in some cases we we can anticipate surprisesin some cases we we can anticipate surprises
in that sense we can prepare for uncertain futuresin that sense we can prepare for uncertain futures
Lessons from VISIONS projectLessons from VISIONS project
Surprises
multiple definitionsmultiple definitions
‘‘unexpected’ but related to perception and expectationunexpected’ but related to perception and expectation
• unexpected discrete events unexpected discrete events - oil shocks of 1973, natural catastrophes, political coups oil shocks of 1973, natural catastrophes, political coups
• discontinuities in long-term trendsdiscontinuities in long-term trends- decoupling of economic growth and resource use decoupling of economic growth and resource use
• sudden emergence of new information/knowledgesudden emergence of new information/knowledge- stratospheric ozone hole, discovery of asbest-related stratospheric ozone hole, discovery of asbest-related
cancercancer
Surprises
systemic classification of surprisessystemic classification of surprisesSchneider (1997)Schneider (1997)
• unimaginable surprises unimaginable surprises - Jules Verne’s journey to centre of the EarthJules Verne’s journey to centre of the Earth
• imaginable surprises that are improbableimaginable surprises that are improbable- global nuclear warglobal nuclear war
• imaginable surprises that are probableimaginable surprises that are probable- massive migration due to ecological disastermassive migration due to ecological disaster
• certain surprises certain surprises - earthquakes earthquakes
trends
events
structural changes
legislationdemography
climate change
power constellations
daily newsAl Gore movie,
weather extremesletter of Tony Blair
conjunctural trendslifestyle changes
liberalizationprivatization
social relations
paradigms
complexity iceberg
spirit of times
trends
events
structural changes
increased American international dominance
rise of political islam
terrorist attacksWTC’93, US embassadies ’98,
USS-Cole 2000
Gulf War 1991Increased anti-American sentiment
invasion of Aghanistan 1979emergence of Al Qaeda
9-11 ‘unraveling’
globalization
myths of US-culture
Simplexity concept
concept that represents simplification of complexityconcept that represents simplification of complexity
but is still indicative for complexitybut is still indicative for complexity
arises from insight that complex systems can arises from insight that complex systems can
display simple behavior [display simple behavior [complexity sciencecomplexity science]]
[[cchaos theoryhaos theory: simple systems can display complex : simple systems can display complex behavior]behavior]
to handle complexity for decision-makersto handle complexity for decision-makers
Complexity syndromevariant on Schellnhuber’s syndrome conceptvariant on Schellnhuber’s syndrome concept
narrative exploration of complexity patternsnarrative exploration of complexity patterns
• butterfly syndromebutterfly syndromesimple event causes complex effectssimple event causes complex effects
global virusglobal virus
• seemingly disastrous syndromeseemingly disastrous syndromepotential disruptive event is cancelled outpotential disruptive event is cancelled out
financial crisis in South-East Asia (1997)financial crisis in South-East Asia (1997)
• multi-syndromemulti-syndromecomplex action-reaction patternscomplex action-reaction patterns
water crisis in relation to floods water crisis in relation to floods
Transition
fundamental change of structure, culture andfundamental change of structure, culture and
practices in societal (sub)systempractices in societal (sub)system
• structure:structure: institutional settinginstitutional setting• culture: culture: dominant perspectivedominant perspective• practices:practices: routines, rules, habitsroutines, rules, habits
incumbent structure, culture and practices are brokenincumbent structure, culture and practices are broken
down, which requires time to overcome resistancedown, which requires time to overcome resistance
Multi-Phase concept
Take off
Acceleration
Pre-development phase
Stabilisation
time
Indicator of societal change
Multi-Phase concept
Multi-level concept
Macro-levelautonomous trends, paradigms, slow developments
Meso-levelregime: dominant structures, cultures and practices (but also niche regimes)
Micro-level fast developments: innovative ideas, projects, techniques, niche actors
Transition Futures of Europe
Demographic transitionDemographic transition
• 1 out of 2 Europeans will be older than 50 years1 out of 2 Europeans will be older than 50 years
• 25% of Europeans will be 65+25% of Europeans will be 65+
• 1/3 of population exists of migrants1/3 of population exists of migrants
• 1/3 of income of Europeans spent on health care1/3 of income of Europeans spent on health care
• 20% of European employees in health care sector 20% of European employees in health care sector
Transition Futures of Europe
Geographic transitionGeographic transition
from countries to transnational regionsfrom countries to transnational regions
• transnational regions motors of new Europetransnational regions motors of new Europe
• quality of life is major attractor for companies to investquality of life is major attractor for companies to invest
in regions in regions
• environment, space and safety become core valuesenvironment, space and safety become core values
(incentives) for regional economic development(incentives) for regional economic development
Transition Futures of Europe
Social transitionSocial transition
from consuming to participative civic societyfrom consuming to participative civic society
• self-organizing capacity of society will significantly increaseself-organizing capacity of society will significantly increase
• many citizens will develop own initiatives many citizens will develop own initiatives
• informed citizens play an important role in new governance informed citizens play an important role in new governance structures structures
• local communities engaged in sustainable use of resourceslocal communities engaged in sustainable use of resources
Uncertainties
within MATISSE we developed storylines behind the EEA-baseline
scenario for Europe in 2030
we detected structural uncertainties that were sources of potential
disagreement among experts
for the structural uncertainties we introduced bifurcations so that
we ended with a ‘positive’ and ‘negative’ variant of the baseline
institutions, health care, migration, infrastructure
technology, trade, environmental pollution, import/export
NEGATIVE BASELINE 2030 POSITIVE BASELINE 2030‘OLD & DENSE EUROPE’ ‘MOTIVATED EUROPE’
HEALTH CARE
EDUCATION-MIGRATION
INSTITUTIONS
Weakening Government and no additonal environmental policies
Stronger Government and additionalenvironmental policies and subsidies
Flaws in educational system while more skilled people are needed: 1. Ageing population 2. Change to knowledge based economy>> Migrants suffer most
Investments in educational system leading to a paradigm shift: >> motivation to compete with white collars >> fair chances for migrants on labour market
Increasing pressure on health care sector due to ageing population
Overquestioning of health care leads toparadigm shift: from ‘parens for children’ to ‘children for parents’.
NEGATIVE BASELINE 2030 POSITIVE BASELINE 2030‘OLD & DENSE EUROPE’ ‘MOTIVATED EUROPE’
TECHNOLOGY
INFRASTRUCTURE
POLLUTIONIncreasing [air] pollution:1. Individualization >> car ownership per capita increases >> growing amount of construction waste >> increase energy demand >> expansion settlement patterns and infrastr.2. Prefer living in green areas>>commuting distance increases
Decreasing [air] pollution in spite of intensifying transport: >> stimulating public transport for commuting >> R&D for technological break throughs in cars >> attractive cities due to city planning >> carsharing & car-free cities.
Reversing the trend of moving to green areas:City centers become THE place forliving, working and caring as all facilities are available in the city centre
System innovations in sustainable modes of transport: >> hydrogen cars >> gasoline pressured engines
Slow penetration of renewables and no system innovations in sustainable modesof transport
City centers become THE place for Business Centers while green areas become THE place for living.
Insights
from ULYSSES, VISIONS, FIRMA, MATISSEfrom ULYSSES, VISIONS, FIRMA, MATISSE
• surprises are often symptoms of complexity that might besurprises are often symptoms of complexity that might be
detected in a rather early stagedetected in a rather early stage
• we cannot avoid or ignore complexity we cannot avoid or ignore complexity but also not command-andbut also not command-and
-control it. However, we can try to subtly manage-control it. However, we can try to subtly manage
• the concept of transition is useful to project future pathways thatthe concept of transition is useful to project future pathways that
are characterized by path dependenciesare characterized by path dependencies
• structural uncertainties cannot be resolved but can be relatedstructural uncertainties cannot be resolved but can be related
to multiple perspectivesto multiple perspectives