Comparing International Environmental RegimesCITES Montreal

ProtocolKyoto Protocol

Global Issues Species loss ozone depletion

climate change

Scientific basis of problem ecology physical sciences

earth system sciences

Scientific tools population census

modeling, remote sensing

modeling, ecosystem experiments

Certainty of problem very high very high high

Uncertainty of outcome with no-action low very low medium

Amount of mandated science & data collection medium high high

Updating of regime with current science medium high high

Economic impact of the regime low moderate very high

Participation by industry/private sector low high low

Reliance on NGOs for data & enforcement high low medium

International participation very high very high high

U.S. Agreement yes yes no1

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Data source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis CenterThis figure was originally prepared by Robert A. Rohde

Found at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Carbon_Emission_by_Region.png4

Since 1979, the size of the summer polar ice cap has shrunk more than 20 percent. (Illustration from NASA) (http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/qthinice.asp)

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For the Midwestern U.S.• Warming will be greater for winter than summer • Warming will be greater at night than during the

day• A 3oF rise in summer daytime temperature triples

the probability of a heat wave• Growing season will be longer (8-9 days longer

now than in 1950)• More precipitation• Likely more soil moisture in summer• More rain will come in intense rainfall events• Higher stream flow, more flooding

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Montreal Protocol vs. Kyoto AccordMontreal Protocol vs. Kyoto Accord

• International Institutions aimed at solving Global International Institutions aimed at solving Global Commons ProblemsCommons Problems

• Montreal Protocol enacted 1987Montreal Protocol enacted 1987• Kyoto Protocol enacted 1997Kyoto Protocol enacted 1997• Montreal Protocol has been effectiveMontreal Protocol has been effective• Kyoto Protocol has had less successKyoto Protocol has had less success• Why?Why?

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Timeline Kyoto Accord Timeline Kyoto Accord 1988 IPCC established to investigate climate change1988 IPCC established to investigate climate change 1992 UN conference in Rio de Janeiro creates FCCC1992 UN conference in Rio de Janeiro creates FCCC 1995 Berlin Mandate, suggests need for legal action, drawdown 1995 Berlin Mandate, suggests need for legal action, drawdown

targets and timetables.targets and timetables. 1996 Geneva Conference, Berlin targets will not be met.1996 Geneva Conference, Berlin targets will not be met. 1997 U.S. Senate declares that U.S. will not comply without 1997 U.S. Senate declares that U.S. will not comply without

participation by developing nations. participation by developing nations. 1997 Parties meet in Kyoto. Target 5% emissions reduction from 1990 1997 Parties meet in Kyoto. Target 5% emissions reduction from 1990

levels levels

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Timeline Cont.Timeline Cont.• 1998 Buenos Aires conference discusses flexible 1998 Buenos Aires conference discusses flexible

mechanisms/experimental jurisprudencemechanisms/experimental jurisprudence• 2000 Disagreement between U.S and EU over limits on international 2000 Disagreement between U.S and EU over limits on international

trading of emissions allowances and sequestration requirementstrading of emissions allowances and sequestration requirements• 2001 IPCC third report finds Earth’s Climate to be warming more 2001 IPCC third report finds Earth’s Climate to be warming more

rapidly that previously predictedrapidly that previously predicted• 2001 Bush declares Kyoto Protocol dead2001 Bush declares Kyoto Protocol dead• 2008 President-Elect Barack Obama promises to get U.S. “Back on 2008 President-Elect Barack Obama promises to get U.S. “Back on

Track” with Kyoto ProtocolTrack” with Kyoto Protocol• Fall 2009 - “No Agreement Expected” at Copenhagen (NY Times - Fall 2009 - “No Agreement Expected” at Copenhagen (NY Times -

Nov. 15, 2009)Nov. 15, 2009)

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Three Primary Mechanisms of Kyoto

1. Emissions trading Country with excess emissions may transfer some of its authorized

emissions to another country that would otherwise exceed its emissions commitment

2. Joint implementation Participating Annex I Party may implement a reduction project in the

territory of another Annex I Party and count the emissions reduction units against its own target

3. Clean Development Mechanism Annex I Party may implement a project in a developing country and use

the resulting certified emissions reductions to meet its own target

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Kyoto Market-Based Mechanisms

• Article 17: Emissions trading=Carbon market– Parties with commitments under Kyoto accept targets—expressed as

levels of allowed emissions between 2008-2012—for limiting or reducing emissions. Countries with emission units to spare can sell excess capacity to countries over their targets.

– Trading units=carbon dioxide, removal unit (RMU) based on land-use change and forestry activities

• Article 12: Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) allows an Annex B country to implement an emission-reduction project in developing countries. A CDM project must provide emission reductions that are additional to what would otherwise have occurred.

– Trading units=Certified emission reduction (CER) credits

• Article 6: Joint implementation (JI) allows an Annex B country to earn emission reduction units (ERUs) from an emission-reduction or emission removal project in another Annex B Party.

– Trading units=Emission reduction units (ERUs)

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Kyoto Protocol Eligibility Requirements

• Ratified Kyoto Protocol• Calculated assigned amount of carbon dioxide

equivalent emissions.• Have a national system for estimating emissions

and removals of greenhouse gases within a territory.

• Have a national registry in place to record and track the creation and movement of trading units and annually report such information to the secretariat.

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Kyoto Protocol Monitoring Mechanisms

• Registry systems to track and record transactions (International transaction log in Bonn, Germany).

• Reporting done by submitting annual emission inventories and national reports at regular intervals.

• Compliance system ensures commitments are met and provides help if needed.

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Public DomainFound at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Kyoto36-2005.png

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Why Did Montreal Succeed, and Kyoto (so far) Fail?Why Did Montreal Succeed, and Kyoto (so far) Fail?

• Kyoto Faced a Tougher Problem Kyoto Faced a Tougher Problem • Complexity of CausationComplexity of Causation

– What proportion of Climate Change is caused by GHGs, what is What proportion of Climate Change is caused by GHGs, what is due to natural climate cycles?due to natural climate cycles?

• Removed ThreatRemoved Threat– Climate Change does not pose an imminent human health threat.Climate Change does not pose an imminent human health threat.

• Dispersion/Prevalence of EmittersDispersion/Prevalence of Emitters– More so than ODS, GHGs are produced worldwide in huge More so than ODS, GHGs are produced worldwide in huge

quantities. The scale of production makes reductions more quantities. The scale of production makes reductions more difficult. difficult.

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Why Kyoto Fails Cont. Why Kyoto Fails Cont. • Industry has failed to develop alternative Industry has failed to develop alternative

technologiestechnologies– Montreal’s success relied on industry to develop the technologies Montreal’s success relied on industry to develop the technologies

necessary for reductionnecessary for reduction– Because the U.S. has failed to impose strict Kyoto type Because the U.S. has failed to impose strict Kyoto type

regulations, industry leaders have faced little pressure to improve regulations, industry leaders have faced little pressure to improve technologytechnology

– The cost of emissions reduction is thus to heavy for the rest of the The cost of emissions reduction is thus to heavy for the rest of the world to bearworld to bear

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Future Hope for Kyoto Protocol and Future Hope for Kyoto Protocol and Reduction of GHGsReduction of GHGs

The Montreal Protocol sets a reassuring precedent with regard to uncertain The Montreal Protocol sets a reassuring precedent with regard to uncertain sciencescience Experimental Jurisprudence allows for Laws to adapt to changing scienceExperimental Jurisprudence allows for Laws to adapt to changing science

The new U.S. administration has promised to address Climate Change The new U.S. administration has promised to address Climate Change through new regulationthrough new regulation

As industry leaders (Energy Producers, Auto Manufacturers) are forced to As industry leaders (Energy Producers, Auto Manufacturers) are forced to adapt, the technologies necessary for positive change will be developed.adapt, the technologies necessary for positive change will be developed.

Once these technologies are developed in the US and EU, they can be applied Once these technologies are developed in the US and EU, they can be applied at low cost elsewhere in the world. at low cost elsewhere in the world. Clean energy technologiesClean energy technologies Clean transportation technologiesClean transportation technologies More effective sequestration of GHGsMore effective sequestration of GHGs

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Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative

(RGGI)• Effort by ten Northeast and Mid-

Atlantic states to limit greenhouse gas emissions

• First mandatory and market-based CO2 reduction program in US

• Requires a 10% reduction in emissions by 2018

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RGGI• Composed of individual trading markets in

each state

• Power plants can use the allowance given to show compliance with state regulations

• August 2006: published a model rule

• First compliance period for each state’s budget trading program begins January 1, 2009

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RGGI Members

• Participating states: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Massachusetts, and Maryland

• These states represent over 46 million people• Observer states and regions: Pennsylvania,

District of Columbia, Rhode Island.

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Similar Agreements / Bills• On 27 September 2006, California Governor Arnold

Schwarzenegger signed into law the bill AB 32, also known as the Global Warming Solutions Act, establishing a timetable to reduce the state's greenhouse-gas emissions, which rank at 12th-largest in the world, by 25% by the year 2020. This law effectively puts California in line with the Kyoto limitations, but at a date later than the 2008-2012 Kyoto commitment period.

• As of 27 July 2008, 850 US cities in 50 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico, representing over 80 million Americans support Kyoto after Mayor Greg Nickels of Seattle started a nationwide effort to get cities to agree to the protocol.

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RGGI Cap and Trade Program

• Require electric power generator to hold allowances covering carbon dioxide emissions.

• Use proceeds of allowance auctions to support low-carbon-intensity solutions

• Employ offsets from emission reductions or sequestration at sources beyond electricity sector to help companies meet obligations.

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Climate Change Mechanisms• Kyoto Protocol

– Three market-based mechanisms

– 1. Emissions trading – 2. Clean Development

Mechanism (CDM)– 3. Joint Implementation (JI) – Stimulate development

through technology transfer and investment

– Carbon market– Help countries with Kyoto

commitments to meet targets by reducing emissions or removing carbon in other countries in a cost-effective way.

– Encourage private sector and developing countries to contribute to emission reduction efforts

• RGGI– Establish a multi-state carbon

dioxide emissions budget (cap) that decreases gradually until 10 percent lower than start by 2018.

– Allowance tracking system:• Version 1.1: Allows general

accounts to be established and managed to support participation in first allowance auction.

• Version 1.2: Will provide for ability to transfer carbon dioxide allowances among general accounts and establish compliance accounts before first allowance auction.

• Version 2.0: Includes carbon dioxide allowance awards and all allocations by participating states, tracking of allowances, transfer of allowances among compliance and general accounts, tracking of reported carbon dioxide emissions from regulated sources, and tracking of offset project status and carbon dioxide offset allowance awards by participating states.

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Kyoto, RGGI Similarities

• Multi-party cap-and-trade system that establishes a carbon market for limiting and reducing greenhouse gas emissions, particularly carbon dioxide.

• Utilize proceeds for technology transfers and clean development projects.

• Require tracking and reporting of emissions reductions and transactions

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Kyoto, RGGI Differences

• Kyoto– Free allowances– Emissions reductions

can come from any sector

– No binding cap– CDM is a voluntary

program without certainty and the ability to convert reductions into offsets, which results in low investments.

• RGGI– Allowance auction

establishes price per ton of carbon

– Emissions reductions targeted at electric power utilities

– Binding cap at 10% below current levels by 2018

– Provides creator and buyer certainty through conversion of reductions into offsets

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How the Clean Air Act Deals with Climate Change

• The Clean Air Act uses federal and local regulations to cut down on green house gas emissions, typically caused by burning fossil fuels.

• National standards and goals are set and states are expected to comply

• Funds research so that problems can be identified and addressed

• One mechanism for dealing with climate change is to reduce gas consumption by 20% in the next 10 years.

• Many provisions of the Clean Air Act include ways to reduce emissions through transportation mechanisms.

– Increased fuel efficiency on cars– Catalytic converters– Reducing cars on the road through public transportation

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