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March 8, 2016 Commuter Airline Perspective On - Demand Mobility and Follow Up Workshop

Commuter Airline Perspective - National Institute of Aerospace Tuesday presentations Final/13 Wolf FINAL... · March 8, 2016. Commuter Airline Perspective. On-Demand Mobility and

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Page 1: Commuter Airline Perspective - National Institute of Aerospace Tuesday presentations Final/13 Wolf FINAL... · March 8, 2016. Commuter Airline Perspective. On-Demand Mobility and

March 8, 2016

Commuter Airline Perspective

On-Demand Mobility and Follow Up Workshop

Page 2: Commuter Airline Perspective - National Institute of Aerospace Tuesday presentations Final/13 Wolf FINAL... · March 8, 2016. Commuter Airline Perspective. On-Demand Mobility and

Founded in 1989, Cape Air is now the largest commuter airline in the United States

• Annual revenue over $125M

• Financially stable

• Fleet of 93 aircraft– 83 Cessna 402Cs– 4 Britten-Norman Islanders– 2 Cessna Caravan Amphibians– 2 ATR 42s

• 43 airports served; 20 in EAS1

Page 3: Commuter Airline Perspective - National Institute of Aerospace Tuesday presentations Final/13 Wolf FINAL... · March 8, 2016. Commuter Airline Perspective. On-Demand Mobility and

San Juan

Mayaguez

St. CroixVieques

TortolaSt. Thomas

Virgin GordaCulebra

ProvincetownHyannisNantucket

New BedfordMartha’s Vineyard

Augusta

LebanonRutland

Saranac LakeOgdensburgMassena

White Plains

Albany

Manhattan

Rockland

Bar Harbor

Boston

Cape Air Routes1Q16

Ft. Leonard Wood

Cape Girardeau

QuincyKirksville

St. Louis

OwensboroMarion

Havre GlasgowWolf Point

SidneyGlendive

Billings

Map inset not to scale

Rota

Saipan

Guam

Micronesia

Denotes seasonal service

BiminiMiami Seaplane BaseFt. Lauderdale Intl

(Amphib)

Page 4: Commuter Airline Perspective - National Institute of Aerospace Tuesday presentations Final/13 Wolf FINAL... · March 8, 2016. Commuter Airline Perspective. On-Demand Mobility and

Cape Air seeks a 21st century commuter airlinerto modernize the fleet

• Certified for Part 135 Scheduled Commuter

• Nine passenger seats

• Twin reciprocating engines, burning a fuel other than 100LL

• Payload of at least 9 X (180 lbs/pax + 40 lbs bags/pax) = 1,980 lbs at 200+ nm stage with IFR reserves

• Single pilot certified, but dual controls

• Glass panel

• At least 180 knots true airspeed in cruise

• Certified for flight-into-known-icing option

3

Cape Air specifications

Version of 2010

Page 5: Commuter Airline Perspective - National Institute of Aerospace Tuesday presentations Final/13 Wolf FINAL... · March 8, 2016. Commuter Airline Perspective. On-Demand Mobility and

The active worldwide fleet of 9-seat airliners is greater than 2,000 but more than 11,000 aircraft need to be replaced

Model Built Still airworthy* Present Fleet Pax Use* Commercial FleetBeechcraft King Air 100 Series 3,100 60% 1,860 15% 279Beechcraft King Air 200/300 Series 3,550 72% 2,556 15% 383Beechcraft Queen Air 930 50% 465 10% 47Cessna 208A/B Caravan 2,000 90% 1,800 20% 360Cessna 401/402A/B 854 45% 384 15% 58Cessna 402C 681 50% 341 40% 136Cessna 404 Titan 396 50% 198 10% 20Cessna 414 1,070 50% 535 15% 80Cessna 441 362 50% 181 15% 27Cessna-Reims F406 Caravan II 86 60% 52 15% 8de Havilland DHC-3 Single Otter 466 30% 140 20% 28Pilatus PC12 1,200 90% 1,080 25% 270Piper PA31 Navajo 3,942 50% 1,971 15% 296Piper PA-42 Cheyenne 192 50% 96 10% 10Quest Kodiak 100 95% 95 25% 24Total 18,929 62% 11,753 17% 2,025

* Estimate

4

Worldwide fleet of 9-seat airliners

Page 6: Commuter Airline Perspective - National Institute of Aerospace Tuesday presentations Final/13 Wolf FINAL... · March 8, 2016. Commuter Airline Perspective. On-Demand Mobility and

Build a mile of road, and you can drive one mile. Build a mile of runway, and you can go anywhere.

5

Page 7: Commuter Airline Perspective - National Institute of Aerospace Tuesday presentations Final/13 Wolf FINAL... · March 8, 2016. Commuter Airline Perspective. On-Demand Mobility and

Cape Air’s next-generation commuter aircraft design priorities

• Safety

• Payload of at least 1,980 lbs at a 200+ nm stage with IFR reserves

• Relative to the Cessna 402, increased ownership of a new aircraft offset by: – Lower maintenance– Lower fuel burn– Increased utilization (fewer spare aircraft required)

• Max flight duration 99 minutes (since there is no lavatory on board)– Range becomes a function of speed– Fares for longer flights get prohibitively expensive—DOCs are a function of flight time

• Supply chain (parts, engineering, regulatory support)

• Environmental responsibility

6

Page 8: Commuter Airline Perspective - National Institute of Aerospace Tuesday presentations Final/13 Wolf FINAL... · March 8, 2016. Commuter Airline Perspective. On-Demand Mobility and

67% of Cape Air’s flights are less than 100 miles;98% of Cape Air’s routes not in the Essential Air Service

(EAS) program are less than 100 miles

7

Cape Air Route Distribution by Mileage2016 Scheduled Commuter, Land

1,680

25,781

12,520

21,598

357 817

2,869

12,578

6,434

13,6038,081

4,970 3,5500

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

0-25 25-50 50-75 75-100 100-125 125-150 150-175 175-200 200-225

Depa

rtur

es

Nautical miles

EAS

Non-EAS

Page 9: Commuter Airline Perspective - National Institute of Aerospace Tuesday presentations Final/13 Wolf FINAL... · March 8, 2016. Commuter Airline Perspective. On-Demand Mobility and

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

Payroll Maintenance ReservationFees

Facilites Pilot Training

2012 2013 2014 2015

9% Increase 28%

Increase

10% Increase

96% Increase

37% Increase

Operating expenses are an increasing challenge

8

Aircraft expense per flight hour

Page 10: Commuter Airline Perspective - National Institute of Aerospace Tuesday presentations Final/13 Wolf FINAL... · March 8, 2016. Commuter Airline Perspective. On-Demand Mobility and

Offsets from Cessna 402 maintenance costs can pay for the increased ownership cost of a new-generation 9-seat twin

9

Cessna 402 ReplacementMaintenanceUtilization (flight hours/yr) 1,017 1,200Maintenance/Hr (ex. Reserved) $232 $120 Maintenance/Yr $235,944 $144,000

OwnershipPurchase price $550,000 $1,500,000 Rate 6.50% 6.50%Period 7 7Payment $100,282 $273,497

Mx & Ownership Subtotal $336,226 $417,497

Economy cruise speed (kts) 150 160Annual ASMs 1,372,950 1,728,000CASM (Mx & Own only) $0.24 $0.24

Page 11: Commuter Airline Perspective - National Institute of Aerospace Tuesday presentations Final/13 Wolf FINAL... · March 8, 2016. Commuter Airline Perspective. On-Demand Mobility and

The effective range of commuter aircraft is limited to 99 minutes of flight because they don’t have a lavatory; a

faster aircraft flies more miles in 99 minutes, opening new city pair possibilities

10

50 miles

225 miles

Effective range at 150 kts

350 miles

Page 12: Commuter Airline Perspective - National Institute of Aerospace Tuesday presentations Final/13 Wolf FINAL... · March 8, 2016. Commuter Airline Perspective. On-Demand Mobility and

Thank you!

Dan WolfFounder & CEO

Linda Markham President