Community Colleges:Meeting the Challenge of

Increasing Attainment Rates

Arthur M. Hauptman

SHEEOHigher Education Policy Conference

August 2010

The Community College Challenge

President Obama has laid out a very challenging goal for American higher education – for the U.S. to once again have the highest overall attainment rates among the youngest group of workers (ages 25 to 34 year old) We have not been the leader in this category since 1990

Increasing associate degree attainment rates must clearly be part of any effort to increase overall rates of attainment in the U.S. in the next decade and beyond. This is the community college challenge.

But there are some particular aspects of the relationship between American universities and community colleges which will make increasing associate degree completion rates particularly difficult

The Community College Conundrum

Associate’s degrees have been the fastest growing type of degree in the U.S. over the past forty years. But the sub-bachelor’s attainment rate in the U.S. has stayed relatively constant at 10 percent of adult workers for much of that time, as the following charts demonstrate

This is the community college conundrum: rapid growth in associate’s degrees awarded does not translate into higher attainment rates because many associate’s degree recipients already have a bachelor’s or get one after they attend community college. As a result, they are reported as bachelor’s degree holders and do not appear in the sub-bachelor degree attainment rates.

This is different from many other OECD countries where sub-bachelors degrees are typically terminal ones, most further education students do not go on for university education, and the overlap between higher education and further education is rather limited.

Average Annual Rates of Growth, in Five Year Intervals, 1970 to 2005

Associate's Bachelor's Master's 4Yr Enroll 2Yr Enroll Population 70/75 9.2% 2.0% 6.2% 2.9% 11.4% 1.1% 75/80 1.2% 0.2% -1.1% 1.0% 2.7% 1.1% 80/85 1.4% 1.1% -0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.9% 85/90 1.6% 2.1% 3.1% 2.1% 3.0% 1.0% 90/95 2.8% 1.2% 3.8% 0.4% 0.9% 1.3% 95/00 0.9% 1.3% 2.9% 1.3% 1.6% 1.2% 00/05 4.5% 3.6% 4.9% 3.3% 1.8% 1.0%

AVERAGE ANNUAL RATES OF GROWTH IN DEGREES, FTE ENROLLMENTS AND POPULATION, 1970 - 2005

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

Ave

rage

Ann

ual %

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Attainment Rates for the Youngest Group of Workers, 1970 to 2020 (projected)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Att

ain

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t R

ates

Associate's Bachelor's Overall President's

Big Barrier – Achieving the President’s goal for attainment will be exceedingly hard to achieve

The preceding chart also demonstrates how difficult it will be to reach President Obama’s objective of having the U.S. achieve an overall attainment rate of roughly 60 percent by 2020

We would have to quadruple the historical rate of increase in the overall attainment rate over the next decade The U.S. overall attainment rate has increased on average at

an annual rate of .5 percentage points for the past 40 years. It would have to increase by 2 percentage points per year for the next ten years to reach 60 percent by 2020.

This is highly unlikely without major shifts in policy and/or large infusions of money in the next several years Can’t wait until 2020 for policies to be in place

What policies would help community colleges achieve the objective of increasing

overall attainment rates?

To achieve the President’s goal, or even at least move more rapidly in that direction, will require large scale changes in federal and state policies and funding patterns What would those policies be?

Increasing associate degree attainment rates also requires not adopting certain policies that will detract from the effort What policies should be avoided?

Three Policies to Avoid

Large increases in Pell Grants Recent increases have resulted in very little additional

funds for community colleges themselves Little evidence that Pell Grants will improve completion

Base policies on increasing completion rates Easiest way for institutions to improve their completion

rates is to be more selective or lower standards Focus instead on increasing numbers of graduates

Maintain federal campus-based aid in current form Grandfather provisions disproportionately favor four-year

institutions that have been in the programs a long time Application process emphasizes which students receive

awards, not the results

State policies to help community colleges increase attainment rates

Reallocate some state resources from four-year to two-year institutions

Base all or at least a portion of funding formulas on the number of graduates rather than the number of students enrolled

Dramatically change how remediation is financed so that students would not need to borrow for remedial courses because they would no longer be charged tuition for these courses Contract for remediation services instead

Federal policies to help community colleges achieve higher attainment rates

The student aid process could be simplified by allowing parents/students to apply for student aid through a check-off on their federal income tax forms Students from families on welfare, Medicaid, food stamps and EITC

would automatically qualify for full federal aid The amount community college students could borrow for

living expenses could be limited Borrowing for living expenses is major reason for high debt burdens

among community college students The campus based aid programs could be transformed into

an access and completion fund in which institutions would receive federal funds based on the number of Pell Grant recipients they enroll and graduate Institutions would have considerable latitude to decide how to spend

these funds including student grants, work-study, mentoring, support services, and early intervention partnerships

In sum, the President’s ambitious goals require careful thinking about what works

Certain policies should be avoided Eschew politics and rhetoric Emphasize program effectiveness

State policies and funding should be designed to allow community colleges to act more effectively in meeting performance goals Reallocate resources and reward performance

Federal student aid policies should be modified to allow those programs to act more effectively in meeting the President’s goals Big increases in Pell Grants are not the answer Simplify aid process and re-focus resources