Communicating Forecasts: Linguistic

and Cultural Considerations

Karen PennesiPh.D. candidate

University of Arizona

Northeast region of Brazil

Ceará state in NE Brazil

NE

Ceará Context

• Semi-arid climate• Most rain from Feb.

to May• Pop. 7.5 million• 85% of rural pop.

is poor• Mostly rain fed

subsistence agriculture• Drought every 7-10 yrs.

FUNCEME• FUNCEME = Ceará Foundation for

Meteorology and Hydrological Resources• Produces seasonal climate forecast

expressed as a probability• Official forecast is the result of consensus

among international researchers

Rain Prophets• older farmers• predictions based on observations of insects,

animals, birds, plants, winds, stars, clouds, and other phenomena in nature

Project Goal and Methodology

• Why do people criticize meteorologists and rain prophets?

• 14 months of fieldwork in Ceará, Brazil• Recorded interviews, focus group

discussions, annual meetings of the rain prophets

• Administered survey to 189 farmers in 3 regions of Ceará

Cultural Models Influencing Interpretation

and Evaluation of Predictions

What Farmers Expect From a Prediction

Optimism; only indirect references to drought

A high level of accuracy in specifying:– when it will rain– how much rain will fall– where it will rain

Objectives, Expectations and Communicative

Practices

FUNCEME’s Meteorological Forecasts

• 80% accuracy rate • probability that the total rainfall for

a region will be dry, normal or wet• No forecast of harvest

Predictions Made by Rain Prophets

• Use terms and references meaningful to farmers

• Framed optimistically to encourage planting and give hope

• Grounded in religion

Identifying Communication Problems and Building Shared Understandings

1) Look for multiple definitions of key terms

• The same word with different meanings leads to miscommunication

• Distinctions salient to one group may be meaningless to another

“Below the historical average”

What is the average rainfall here?- 10% correct- 58% did not know- 32% gave incorrect answers

Interpretations of seasonal forecast: “below average rainfall”

- 47% had no understanding at all- 46% said: drought; very little rain;

insufficient rain for agriculture

2) Non-scientific usages are legitimate too

• What is the motivation to learn scientific concepts and to adopt scientific approaches?

• Without motivation and perceived benefits, new concepts and changes in thinking are resisted.

• Traditional alternatives can be effective.

3) Public education versus “translation”

• How much do people need to understand to be properly informed?

• Can new formats be created through collaboration?

4) Explain limitations.Be relevant.

• Some questions cannot be answered with available technology and resources.

• Interpretations are shaped by expectations and needs.

5) Consider the format and content of the

presentation within the cultural context.

• What do people expect from forecasts?• What value do forecasts have to them?• Which communication styles are

preferred?• Which media are most effective?

Conclusion: Improving Science Communications

• What questions do people want answered?• What type of information do they want?• What formats are most appropriate?• How is the information “used” aside from

decision-making?

Financial support for this research was provided by:

The Social Sciences and Humanities

Research Council of