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Common Sense Is Not So Common – Some Leasons Learned Using Simulations for Problem Solving
Charlie Voss
Golder Associates Inc.
October 25, 2007
2October 25, 2007
Topics
“GoldSim to the rescue” or “pass me the hammer”
Collaborative model development Stochastic is fantastic – not Verification, calibration,
documentation and other “tions” Presenting your masterpiece GoldSim karma
3October 25, 2007
Before You Start
GoldSim may not always be the best solution
Don’t force or let your clients force you into using GoldSim
Save it for complex, dynamic, stochastic simulation problems
Sell the approach, not the software
GoldSim
4October 25, 2007
Model Development
Top-down – right way to go, often hard to practice
Collaborative development You should have taken more psyche
courses The quality of the model depends on the
skill and purpose of the modelers Find a way to give everyone some
ownership in the model Look out for the “quiet” guy Critical in a regulatory environment
Keep an eye on the data commitment
5October 25, 2007
Probabilistic – Are you sure?
Results are often incomprehensible to your audience
Too much certainty in the uncertainty?
Correlations often difficult to quantify Deterministic with sensitivity
analysis may be a better approach
6October 25, 2007
Verification and Documentation
Spreadsheets are your friends What time is it? Fortran, GoldSim – some things
don’t change Start explaining model results early Incorporate links to report sections,
spreadsheet checks, etc.
7October 25, 2007
Presenting Results
GoldSim or Lunesta? Never underestimate your graphics
department – everyone can relate to graphical representations
Bar charts and tables – old school but cool
Unless you’re modeling a parking lot!
8October 25, 2007
My favorite GoldSim Project
9October 25, 2007
Giving back
Look for opportunities to get involved with local schools and educators
You may benefit more than those you’re helping