Commodity: TURMERIC (August)

S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2

5969 6361 6695 7087 7421

Fundamentals

Turmeric futures (August) has been taking support near 6600 levels since past three

months, while the upside is getting restricted near 7100-7300 levels. Going ahead, the we

may see a consolidation within the said levels. The market participants are cautious &

avoiding taking fresh long positions as the sowing season is going on & monsoon is

playing a major factor in deciding the course of the price trend.

The sentiments indicate a bearish trend because of subdued demand in spot markets and

improved sowing in the key growing areas of Maharashtra, Telangana and Karnataka, due to

rainfall in the states.

Turmeric prices in Nizamabad, the benchmark market in Telangana, are trading lower due to lack

of bulk buying from retailers and exporters.

Moreover, conditions are becoming favourable for further advancement of the southwest

monsoon into parts of Karnataka, Maharashtra and Telangana, and may also cover remaining

parts of Tamil Nadu.

Current year Turmeric sowing reported delayed by 20 - 25 days in Maharashtra due to water

scarcity. In Sangli district of Maharashtra and adjoining area of Karnataka till now 35 -40%

turmeric sowing completed, farmers were waiting for rainfall. Next 15 – 20 days is crucial for

sowing, if rainfall not happen turmeric sowing area drastically come down.

In Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Turmeric sowing current year reported delay by 10 –

15 days due to delayed monsoon, in Andhra Pradesh sources revealed that area may go down

current year, farmer may shift to Maize crop. Till now, 15 – 20% sowing completed in AP and

Telangana, mostly farmers were waiting for monsoon rainfall.

BSE Ltd recorded firm response on the debut of turmeric futures on the exchange. The August

contract grossed a volume of 530 lots (1 lot = 10 tn), with open interest of 41 lots. The

contract ended 1.1% higher over the base price at 6,685 rupees per 100 kg. According to

contract specifications, trading and delivery unit for turmeric is 10 tn, with the main delivery

centre in Nizamabad and additional delivery centres in Sangli, Erode, and Basmat.

State wise Wholesale Prices Monthly Analysis for Turmeric during June, 2019 (Prices in Rs/Quintal)

State Prices June,

2019 Prices May,

2019 Prices June,

2018

% Change(Over Previous Month)

% Change(Over Previous Year)

Andhra Pradesh 5550.51 5763.62 - -3.7 -

Chattisgarh 6000 10000 7800.8 -40 -23.08

Gujarat 9000 9000 9112.53 0 -1.23

Karnataka 6674.17 6101.2 7411.36 9.39 -9.95

Kerala 10267.67 8654.49 10129.04 18.64 1.37

Madhya Pradesh 3048 6214.85 8291.48 -50.96 -63.24

Maharashtra 6053.39 7732.35 7509.28 -21.71 -19.39

Meghalaya 2933.33 3878.95 2200 -24.38 33.33

Mizoram 18000 - 10617.65 - 69.53

Odisha 6343.71 6907.07 6122.22 -8.16 3.62

Tamil Nadu 6381.85 6517.47 7260.5 -2.08 -12.1

Telangana 5510.5 5575.27 6766.79 -1.16 -18.57

Uttar Pradesh 11346.94 5170.83 10178.96 119.44 11.47

West Bengal 6527.78 6541.63 6976.93 -0.21 -6.44

Average 7402.7 6773.67 7721.35 - -

*Report Generation: As per the data reported by APMCs

Commodity: JEERA (August)

S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2

16573 16922 17448 17797 18323

Fundamentals

Jeera futures (August) is likely to witness lower level buying in the range of 17000-17200

level, while the upside may get extended towards 18000, taking support near 16865 levels.

In Unjha, the benchmark market, exchange-quality jeera was sold at 17,200 rupees per 100 kg.

Jeera prices remained nearly unchanged in Unjha, Gujarat, as supply was enough to meet

domestic demand.

Arrivals have been steady at over 6,000-7,000 bags (1 bag = 55 kg) for the past few weeks.

State wise Wholesale Prices Monthly Analysis for Jeera during May, 2019 (Prices in Rs/Quintal)

State Prices June,

2019 Prices May,

2019 Prices June,

2018 % Change(Over Previous Month)

% Change(Over Previous Year)

Chattisgarh 10000 18000 9500 -44.44 5.26

Gujarat 15518.29 15525.52 14644.7 -0.05 5.97

Karnataka 5363 - 5827 - -7.96

Kerala 22888.89 22505 22040 1.71 3.85

Madhya Pradesh 13960.06 8806.42 13917.74 58.52 0.3

Maharashtra 23000 23000 26000 0 -11.54

Rajasthan 15459.08 15589.03 15152.8 -0.83 2.02

Average 15169.9 17237.66 15297.46

*Report Generation: As per the data reported by APMCs

Commodity: Dhaniya (August)

S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2

6343 6657 7073 7387 7803

Fundamentals

Dhaniya futures (August) is looking bullish & will probably take support near 6900-6800

levels & the upside might get extended towards 7400-7500 levels.

Overall fundamentals of coriander remain bullish due to low crop and also fall in imports from

Bulgaria and Romania, due to severe weather conditions.

Coriander production for 2019-20 is estimated at 268,957 MT compared to previous year’s

333,348 MT.

Heavy pre-monsoon showers have taken a toll on coriander crops, pushing the cost for the herb

up to Rs 70 per bundle.

A kilo of coriander leaves was sold at Rs.295 a kilo at the Horticulture Producer’s Cooperative

Marketing and Processing Society Limited (HOPCOMS) as per its tariff on June 26.

There is shortage of supply of coriander from Anekal, Hoskote, Chikkaballapur, Kolar and other

regions of Karnataka.

State wise Wholesale Prices Monthly Analysis for Coriander seed during May, 2019 (Prices in Rs/Quintal)

State Prices June,

2019 Prices May,

2019 Prices June,

2018 % Change(Over Previous Month)

% Change(Over Previous Year)

Assam 6440 6200 3495.26 3.87 84.25

Chattisgarh 6429.87 5651.95 1368.67 13.76 369.79

Gujarat 6398.97 6471.56 3879.37 -1.12 64.95

Karnataka 9303.96 8397.79 7780.41 10.79 19.58

Kerala 15100 13155 8806.17 14.79 71.47

Madhya Pradesh

6266.35 6695.07 4277.4 -6.4 46.5

Maharashtra 12147.16 12728.21 8956 -4.57 35.63

Rajasthan 6230.94 6338.33 4449.31 -1.69 40.04

Tamil Nadu 5605.28 3165.17 - 77.09 -

Telangana 7306.12 5617 - 30.07 -

Uttar Pradesh 7641.33 7598.37 5919.91 0.57 29.08

Average 8079.09 7456.22 5436.94

*Report Generation: As per the data reported by APMCs

Commodity: CARDAMOM (July)

S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2

2237 2615 2805 3183 3373

Cardamom futures (July) is trading at its life time high at 3109 & has more than doubled

during this year since the low of 1441 on the national bourse. This stellar Bull Run is

expected to continue & the next target would be possibly 3500-3700 levels.

The trend is bullish on the back of unabated surge in prices at Spices Board of India's auctions in

the wake of lower crop estimates.

The average price of small cardamom recorded at the auction at Bodinayakanur was 3,100 rupees

per kg.

The auction prices are at a record high due to absence of carry-over stocks, also last year’s

production loss and anticipation of a delayed harvest this year.

Deficient rainfall is likely to affect the production of cardamom for the next season, which will

begin in August, fear farmer in Idukki.

It is reported that small-scale farmers didn’t get much benefit from the rise in the price of

cardamom, as it depends on factors, including grading. The quality of cardamom is decided by its

shape, colour, smell and size.

Due to the August floods, the production of cardamom decreased by over 30%. The recent

drought will also affect the production of cardamom in the next season. We are worried that the

production would decrease by 50 to 60% in the next season.

The 2018-19 Guatemalan cardamom harvest is expected to reach 31,000-32,000 tonnes, with a

record export revenue due to the low Indian crop estimate, according to Guatemala’s Exporting

Association (Agexport).

State wise Wholesale Prices Monthly Analysis for Cardamoms during June, 2019 (Prices in Rs/Quintal)

State Prices June,

2019 Prices May,

2019 Prices June,

2018 % Change(Over Previous Month)

% Change(Over Previous Year)

Gujarat 140000 167268.29 80000 -16.3 75

Kerala 184288.74 219569.21 92602.51 -16.07 99.01

Maharashtra 288800 220000 80000 31.27 261

Average 204362.91 202279.17 84200.84

*Report Generation: As per the data reported by APMCs

FORWARD CURVES

6342

6752

6830

6908

6250

6350

6450

6550

6650

6750

6850

6950

July August September October

Forward curve of Turmeric futures

17165

17270

17375

17480

17000

17100

17200

17300

17400

17500

17600

July August September October

Forward curve of Jeera futures

Source: NCDEX Closing as on 28th June, 2019

Source: NCDEX Closing as on 28th June, 2019

6,884

6,970

7,054

7,138

6,850

6,900

6,950

7,000

7,050

7,100

7,150

7,200

July August September October

Forward cruve of Dhaniya futures

2993.20

2498.50

2083.90

1980.00 1850.00

1800.00

2000.00

2200.00

2400.00

2600.00

2800.00

3000.00

3200.00

July August September October November

Forward curve of Cardamom futures

Source: NCDEX Closing as on 28th June, 2019

Source: MCX Closing as on 28th June, 2019

SEASONALITY

22.63%

0.97%

-5.95%

40.21%

-12.79%

-2.37%

0.63%

-1.66%

18.09%

-1.22%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

10 Years Historic returns of Turmeric futures during month of July

10.34%

13.14%

9.39%

13.03%

-1.59% -0.71%

-5.15%

9.20%

2.27%

9.16%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

10 Years Historic returns of Jeera futures during month of July

-3%

18%

47%

30%

-20%

7%

-5%

17%

-3%

9%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

10 Years Historic returns of Coriander futures during month of July

-3.07%

0.55%

8.61%

-11.63%

-2.59%

-5.94%

9.82%

15.04%

12.98%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

10 Years Historic returns of Cardamom futures during month of July

Spread charts of Futures & Spot prices

Daily spread chart of Turmeric futures & Spot (Source: Reuters)

Daily spread chart of Jeera futures & Spot (Source: Reuters)

Daily spread chart of Dhaniya futures & Spot (Source: Reuters)

Daily spread chart of Cardamom futures & Spot (Source: Reuters)