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Commodity Prices and Fiscal Policy in Latin America and the Caribbean Emily Sinnott First Draft: September 2009 Abstract The paper looks at how fiscal dependence on commodity production has emerged in recent years in Latin America and the Caribbean. Hydrocarbon and mining production remains an important and growing source of direct tax revenue for several economies in the region, with a substantial share of the region’s GDP generated in countries that are defined as hydrocarbon/mining dependent. Explicit taxes on agricultural exports are in general of much lower importance to fiscal revenues in the r egion compared to hydroca rbon/mining taxes. Next, the co-movement between fiscal expenditures and revenues and commodity prices is investigated for a panel consisting of 19 countries in the region over 1964-2008. Results suggest that there has been a positive fiscal revenue response to commodities price changes in recent years and that the revenue response to commodity price changes increased from the late 1990s onwards. A significant fiscal spending response is not found for the panel of countries considered. Focusing on country-by-country results, we find evidence to indicate that there was a large divergence in the response of individual dependent countries to commodity prices changes over 2 000-2008. Keywords: Fiscal Policy, Commodity price cycles, Latin America and the Caribbean. JEL Classification: E62; E32; N56

Commodity Prices and FP in LAC, Sinnott 2009

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