33
Committed to innovation and growth Alan Hippe, CFO Roche Group London, September 2012

Committed to innovation and growth - Roche · PDF fileSource: Company reports, Roche analysis; 1 Based on average of fiscal years 2009 - 2011 financials; ... Using modern tools to

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Committed to innovation and growth

Alan Hippe, CFORoche Group

London, September 2012

This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements may be identified by words such as ‘believes’, ‘expects’, ‘anticipates’, ‘projects’, ‘intends’, ‘should’, ‘seeks’, ‘estimates’, ‘future’ or similar expressions or by discussion of, among other things, strategy, goals, plans or intentions. Various factors may cause actual results to differ materially in the future from those reflected in forward-looking statements contained in this presentation, among others:1 pricing and product initiatives of competitors;2 legislative and regulatory developments and economic conditions; 3 delay or inability in obtaining regulatory approvals or bringing products to market; 4 fluctuations in currency exchange rates and general financial market conditions; 5 uncertainties in the discovery, development or marketing of new products or new uses of existing

products, including without limitation negative results of clinical trials or research projects, unexpected side-effects of pipeline or marketed products;

6 increased government pricing pressures; 7 interruptions in production; 8 loss of or inability to obtain adequate protection for intellectual property rights; 9 litigation;10 loss of key executives or other employees; and11 adverse publicity and news coverage.

Any statements regarding earnings per share growth is not a profit forecast and should not be interpreted to mean that Roche’s earnings or earnings per share for this year or any subsequent period will necessarily match or exceed the historical published earnings or earnings per share of Roche.

For marketed products discussed in this presentation, please see full prescribing information on our website – www.roche.com

All mentioned trademarks are legally protected

Our strategy

R&D productivity - general considerations

R&D allocation and governance at Roche

Continuous productivity improvements

Focus on cash and outlook

An increasingly challenging environmentWhere do we go from here?

4

RegulatorsMedical benefit-risk ratio• Efficacy (clinical endpoints)• Safety (‘zero’ tolerance)

PayersEconomic benefit-cost ratio• Constrained funding capacity• Demanding real outcome evidence

InvestorsEconomic risk-return ratio• Declining Returns • Declining Growth

5

Roche strategy: Focused on medically differentiated therapies

Generics

Differentiation

MedTech

OTCPrem

ium

for

inno

vatio

n

DiaPharma

Focus

Regulators: Optimised benefit / risk ratio

Payors: Optimised benefit / cost ratio

Roche strategy: Leveraging Pharma & Diagnostics Through-out discovery to market

Unrestricted know-how and IP exchange

Faster adoption of PHC solutions(medicine and test)

Pharmaceuticals

Diagnostics

Development CommercialisationResearch

Research assay Technically validated IVD assay

Clinically validated IVD assay

6

More efficient development

Roche strategy: Tailor made access options for high value products

7

Established Markets Emerging Markets

Universal access and coverage-> Negotiate prices for new medicines

Limited patient access-> Enable access to public funding

Value based pricing Tiered pricing

Our strategy

R&D productivity - general considerations

R&D allocation and governance at Roche

Continuous productivity improvements

Focus on cash and outlook

R&D productivity of Pharma industry: average returns1 falling to critical levels

91 Different methodologies (e.g. IRR, economic returns)Sources: Bernstein Research 2011, McKinsey 2011, KPMG 2011, Deloitte 2011, Roche analysis

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Bernstein

KPMG

Deloitte

McKinsey

Cost of Capital: 8%-10%

Return on R&D investment

R&D productivity differs substantially among players

10

4 x$ 710 m Peak Sales(per $1 bn R&D)

Average annualNME peak sales (2001-10)1

US$ bn

Average annual R&D investment (1997-2006)1

US$ bn

Roche

1 Peak sales and R&D calculated pro forma to account for major M&ASource: EvaluatePharma; BCG analysis; Roche analysis

$ 165 m Peak Sales(per $1 bn R&D)

Implications of R&D productivity challengeSegregation will continue as only true innovation will be rewarded

11Willingness to pay for added value

Med

ical

diff

eren

tiatio

n

highlow

No / limited differentiation

High differentiation

True innovators

Generics

‘Me-too’ players ??

low

high

Our strategy

R&D productivity - general considerations

R&D allocation and governance at Roche

Continuous productivity improvements

Focus on cash and outlook

Solid margins with a high risk / high reward model

13Source: Company reports, Roche analysis; 1 Based on average of fiscal years 2009 - 2011 financials; 2 Based on 2010 data

Core operating profit margin (%)1

Branded pharma sales as % of Group2

Pfizer Astra

Sanofi

Merck

GSK

Novartis

Eli Lilly

Bayer

BMS

Amgen

Abbott

R² = 0.6198

15%

25%

35%

45%

30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

The P&L reflects Roche’s innovation based strategy Low on Marketing, General and Administration

14

33%32%

29%29%

29%29%

28%26%

24%24%

23%18%

Eli LillyNovartis

PfizerBayer

MerckGSK

AstraAbbott

BMSSanofiRoche

Amgen

R&D % sales Core operating profit margin% sales

M&D+G&A % sales

21%20%

19%18%

17%16%

15%14%14%

13%10%

8%

Eli LillyAmgenRoche

BMSMerck

NovartisAstra

SanofiGSK

PfizerAbbottBayer

43%

39%

37%

36%

34%

34%

33%

31%

27%

27%

23%

17%

Pfizer

Astra

Amgen

Roche

Sanofi

Merck

BMS

GSK

Novartis

Eli Lilly

Abbott

Bayer

Source: Company reports, Roche analysis; Figures based on fiscal year 2011 financials

Return on R&D: Historically Roche has delivered

151 Incl. recovery of cost of capital, Roche Pharma. Criteria includes: late stage portfolio, risk adjusted revenues, average profitability

assumed, standard erosion curves

Average # NMEs per year

Required performance to breakeven1, at actual R&D expenses (1996-2005)

Actual Launches 2001-2010

CHF 2.1 bn

1.1

Required peak sales per NME(CHF bn)

R&D productivity: Our plans tell us that we will also be delivering in the future

16

Required peak sales per NME(CHF bn)

Required performance to breakeven1, at actual R&D expenses 2011 onwards

Illustrative

Planned launches 2011-2016

1 Incl. recovery of cost of capital at planning exchange rates, Roche Pharma. Criteria includes: late stage portfolio, risk adjusted revenues, average profitability assumed, standard erosion curves

Average # NMEs per year

Roche R&D: Allocation of funds

17

Decides overall ‘risk appetite’

Corporate Executive

Committee(CEC)

Sets total* budget by unit

(Total CHF 8bn)

• Invest proportionally more into R&D as compared to peers

• Cap / keep R&D stable in view of the overall market risks

Diagnostics(CHF 0.9bn)

REDs(CHF 2.5bn)

Chugai(CHF 0.8bn)

(arms length)

Late stage(CHF 3.9bn)

Reviews allocation

Approves LIP decisions

Oncology Neuroscience Immunology Virology Metabolism

MetMAbe.g.

* Refers to actual 2011 figures

Roche: R&D well balanced from a risk & disease point of view

18Source: Bernstein Equity Research, Tufts University and Roche analysis

Industry average probability of success – Phase 0 to Registration

Oncology

Virology

CNS

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

InflammationMetabolism

2012 Roche budget

R&D spend: Balance between short and long term

19

Research/Discovery

Phase 0 Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Filing Phase 4

R&D spend by phase

~50% ~50%

Invest for the near term

Invest for the future

Note: Based on 2012 budget

Our strategy

R&D productivity - general considerations

R&D allocation and governance at Roche

Continuous productivity improvements

Focus on cash and outlook

Base Increasesuccess rate

Reduce timeto market

"Innovation" Reduce costbase

Innovation+ Efficiency

Productivity improvements: Through Innovation AND continuous Efficiency programs

21Source: Nature Reviews (Eric David, Tony Tramontin and Rodney Zemmel (McKinsey & Co.), Vol. 8, 609, Nature Reviews | Drug Discovery), Roche analysis

Innovation Efficiency

Innovation

Efficiency

Base

Illustrative return

22

Reduce complexity

Optimise resource allocation

Refine infrastructure

Nutley

• Increase investment in late stage

• Leverage support functions

• Reduce infrastructure costs (support functions / site infrastructure)

• Unify sites for ‘non clinical safety and chemistry’

• Close R&D centres (Nutley)

• Co-locate managementTCRC

Example: Optimise research at pRED

ShanghaiBasel

Welwyn PenzbergSchlieren

Support CentersStrategic sites

35 3647 42 38

16 18

21 23 238 8

11 11 11

0

20

40

60

80

2009 2010 2011 HY 2012before R&D

prioritisation

HY 2012after R&D

prioritisationPhase I Phase II Phase III + Registration

New Molecular Entities

Example Development: Productivity initiative in development

23

Roche Genentech Integration

Transactional Outsourcing

Completed efficiency initiatives

-15%

Jan 2010Cost/LIP

2011Cost/LIP

2012Target

Cost/LIP

2015Plan

Ongoing RETHINK D initiativesImprove probability of technical success / reduce risk in trials read outs (ex: use predictive endpoints)

Using modern tools to speed up processes and bring trials closer to patients (ex: collect data directly from patients etc.)

LIP refers to Lifecycle Investment Point

Example: Roche Diabetes Care securing long-term profitability

24

6%4%

2%

2009 2010 2011

Blood GlucoseMonitoring (bGM)

Insulin DeliverySystems

Streamline PortfolioMaximise market uptake

InvestInsulin pumps and CGM

RDC salesGrowth (CER*)

• Restructure and consolidate R&Dorganisation

• "One Global Operations" structure

• Optimise M&D investments

CER=Constant Exchange Rates

Our strategy

R&D productivity - general considerations

R&D allocation and governance at Roche

Continuous productivity improvements

Focus on cash and outlook

High operating free cash flow and margin

26

4.81

6.78 6.436.86

7.1721.8%

28.2%26.1%

31.6% 32.0%

HY 2008 HY 2009 HY 2010 HY 2011 HY 2012

Group operating free cash flow (CHF bn) and margin

CER=Constant Exchange Rates

+7% at CER

Managing risks: Accounts receivables in S. Europe

27

Credit Management & Receivables: Managing riskSpain – learning from the past to reduce future risk

28

• AR rose significantly with an increase in sales, plus bias of portfolio to hospital sector

• Growing delay of payments from public accounts

• No issues with private accounts

• Escalation of tools used, including

– Individual regional account plans

– Change of commercial policy (CoD)

– Forfaiting (local banks and international funds)

History

• Significant reduction in AR due to “Montoro Plan” (June 2012)

• Focus: avoid future build up

Action Impact

AR balance mEUR AR balance mEURDSO – Public debt

Continuous increase in dividends and pay-out ratio historically

29

0.18 0.20 0.28 0.37 0.48 0.55 0.64 0.75 0.83 0.87 1.00 1.15 1.30 1.451.65

2.00

2.50

3.40

4.605.00

6.00

6.606.80

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

0

2

4

6

8

'89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11

Pay-out ratio calculated as dividend per share divided by core earnings per share (diluted)

Dividend per share (CHF)

2011Payout ratio

of 55.3%

Dividend yield (%)

Expanding into selected therapeutic franchises

30Non risk-adjusted

2017 onwards20152012 2013 2014

aleg

litaz

ar

onar

tuzu

mab

ocre

lizum

ab

T-D

M1

PotentialFilingYear

GA

101

bito

pert

in

Larger

(> 1 bn)

Smaller

(up to ~1 bn)

MetabolismOncology ImmunologyNeuroscience Virology

2016/17

lebr

ikiz

umab

ront

aliz

umab

anti-

PCSK

9

LIP candidates2012 target: 3 out of 5

Bcl

-2-s

el in

h

etro

lizum

ab

MEK

097

3

mer

icita

bine

dano

prev

ir

Perj

eta

Cash

ProfitabilitySalesgrowth

We will continue to show strong commitment to Innovation AND Efficiency

31

Value

Innovation Efficiency

Summary: Focus on innovation and growth

1

2 Strong growth in Emerging Markets facilitated by innovative access models

3 Leading product pipeline providing value for the future

Strategic focus on innovation and driving Personalised Healthcare

32

We Innovate Healthcare