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Commercial Real Estate OutlookCommercial Real Estate Outlook
Canadian Market OverviewCanadian Market Overview
Unprecedented time in the commercial real estate market – record low cap rates and premium pricing
Lowest commercial mortgage rates in history.
Record low interest rates. fluctuating stock markets. low risk perception and solid yields have attracted investors to real estate.
Ample available capital across all buyer profiles.
The Capital Markets in PerspectiveThe Capital Markets in PerspectiveSales Volume Increasing in the USSales Volume Increasing in the US
Year over Year Sales Volume up 62%
2003 2004 2005 % Change2004 -2005
Office $46.1B $72.3B $112.0B 54%
Retail $29.3B $38.0B $48.7B 28%
Industrial $14.4B $20.1B $38.9B 94%
Multi-Housing $29.5B $48.1B $89.3B 86%
Total $119 .3B $178 .5B $288 .9B 62%
Source: Real Capital Analytics
The Capital Markets in PerspectiveThe Capital Markets in PerspectiveSales Volume also Increasing in CanadaSales Volume also Increasing in Canada
Year over Year Sales Volume up 14%
2003 2004 2005 % Change 2004-2005
Office $2.6B $4.1B $4.8B 18%
26%
10%
1%
14%
Industrial $2.3B $3.2B $4.0B
Retail $2.6B $3.6B $4.0B
Multi-Residential $1.9B $2.8B $2.9B
Total $9.6B $13.7B $15.7B
Source: CB Richard Ellis / Real Net
The Capital Markets in PerspectiveThe Capital Markets in PerspectiveSales Volume up in VancouverSales Volume up in VancouverYear over Year Sales Volume up 3%
2003 2004 2005 % Change 2004-2005
Office $0.34B $0.39B $0.44B 13%
-5%
-7%
30%
3%
Industrial $0.42B $0.58B $0.55B
Retail $0.60B $0.89B $0.83B
Multi-Residential $0.40B $0.46B $0.60B
Total $1.77B $2.33B $2.41B
Source: CB Richard Ellis / Real Net
Canadian Debt MarketCanadian Debt Market
Source: Bank of Canada and CB Finance
Weekly Benchmark Bond Yields & Mortgage RatesApril 1995 – April 2006
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Perc
enta
geCommercial Mortgage Rates (5 year)
Gov’t of Canada 5-year Benchmark Bond Yield (April 12, 2006)
5.40%
4.32%
Canadian Market OverviewCanadian Market Overview
Current low inventory of available investment product in Canada
Cap rates continue to compress for “A” and “B”quality assets
All buyer profiles active in the market including:
• REIT’s.
• pension funds.
• private buyers.
• syndicators.
• foreign investors
Langley PowerMarch 2003CCap Rate:8.80%
Retail Cap Rates Retail Cap Rates –– Downward TrendDownward TrendPower Power CentresCentres
West Oaks Shopping CentreJune 2004Cap Rate: 7.67%
Canadian Tire / Future ShopAugust 2005CCap Rate:6.40%
Sweden WayMay 2005Cap Rate: 7.02%
Office Cap Rates Office Cap Rates –– Downward TrendDownward TrendMulti Tenant OfficeMulti Tenant Office1100 Melville Street. Vancouver
March 2003Cap Rate: 8.25%
1166 West Pender. VancouverJanuary 2004Cap Rate: 7.25% Oceanic Plaza. Vancouver
June 2005Cap Rate: 6.41%
847-865 Hornby Street. VancouverJuly 2002Cap Rate: 8.70%
10025 River Way, DeltaJuly 2003Cap Rate: 9.10%
Industrial Cap Rates Industrial Cap Rates –– Downward TrendDownward Trend12111 Jacombs Way, RichmondMarch 2004Cap Rate: 7.80%
1440 Derwent Way, DeltaAugust 2005Cap Rate: 6.25%
6700 Southridge Drive, BurnabyApril 2005Cap Rate: 6.67%
Why Vancouver?Why Vancouver?
A Strong. Diverse Economy
Gateway to Pacific Rim - China
Strong Population Growth. Unprecedented Housing Growth
Limited Speculative Development
Limited Land Supply
Strong Leasing Demand & Historical Low Vacancy in all
Sectors
2010 Olympics& Capital Projects
Vancouver Commercial VacancyVancouver Commercial Vacancy
2003 2004 2005 2006F
Greater Vancouver Reta il 5.3% 3.8% 2.9% 2.2%
Downtown Office 13.3% 11.2% 7.8% 5.8%
Greater Vancouver Industria l 3.3% 2.6% 1.6% 1.8%
*Retail vacancy rate based on grocery-anchored retail centres over 50,000 SF
Unemployment RatesUnemployment Rates
4
6
8
10
'98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 F '06
F '07
F '08
Une
mpl
oym
ent (
%)
BC Canada Vancouver
6.8%
6.0%
6.1%
2005
Source: Conference Board of Canada