Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Commercial Management Options for Hybrid Poplar Buffers
Carolyn J. Henri, Ph.D.Jon Johnson, Ph.D.James P. Dobrowolski, Ph.D.
Introduction
Buffers are a means to protect agricultural watercourses
Buffer management is important to biological function
Can buffer management be a profitable enterprise?
Skagit County
Location of Bayview Farm
Joe LearySlough
Hybrid Poplar Stand
Map of Bayview Study Site Blueberries
Poplars w/ Joe Leary Slough and Bayview Ridge
Summer
Winter
Methods
Buffer establishment and management
Inventory
Growth and Yield analysis
Economic Analysis Methods
Evaluation of the poplar enterprise NPV, SEV, and IRR
Break-even Analysis Acreage, volume/quality, and
prices
Comparison of poplar economics with other Skagit Valley crops NPVs
Price Assumptions: $20.00/ton pulp logs $300/MBF peeler logs
Evaluation of Harvest Levels and Product Mixes
35% Pulp 65% Peeler
35% Pulp 65% Peeler
35% Pulp 65% Peeler
50% Pulp 50% Peeler
50% Pulp 50% Peeler
50% Pulp 50% Peeler
100% Pulpwood100% Pulpwood100% Pulpwood
33% Volume Removed
50% Volume Removed
100% Volume Removed
35% Pulp 65% Peeler
35% Pulp 65% Peeler
35% Pulp 65% Peeler
50% Pulp 50% Peeler
50% Pulp 50% Peeler
50% Pulp 50% Peeler
100% Pulpwood100% Pulpwood100% Pulpwood
33% Volume Removed
50% Volume Removed
100% Volume Removed
Results: Net Present Values (NPV) per acre of managed hybrid poplar buffer
($1,200)
($800)
($400)
$0
$400
$800
$1,200
$1,600
$2,000
100% volume removed 50% volume removed 33% volume removed
100%Pulpwood
49%Pulp/51%Peeler
35%Pulp/65%Peeler
Results: Internal Rates of Return
Four positive scenarios
No improvement in IRR when peeler volume is increased
<0%<0%<0%33% volume removed
8%8%<0%50% volume removed
15%15%<0%100% volume removed
35% Pulp/65% Peeler
49% Pulp/51% Peeler
100% Pulpwood
<0%<0%<0%33% volume removed
8%8%<0%50% volume removed
15%15%<0%100% volume removed
35% Pulp/65% Peeler
49% Pulp/51% Peeler
100% Pulpwood
Results: Break-even Acreage
Minimum acreageMinimum acreage
No economies of scale with Skagit farm buffers
Relevant for logging contracts
Results: Break-even Quantity/Quality
Wood Quality and QuantityWood Quality and Quantity Must do cultural treatments
early; not much can be done with an 8 year old stand
Volumes per acre converge after 12 years, regardless of wide or narrow spacing
Wood quality can be improved with wider spacing
Pruning will increase quality but still not proven as cost effective
Thinning is not biologically effective
Results: Break-even Pulp Prices 1
Pulpwood Break-even Price (Whole volume sold as pulp)
$0 $20 $40 $60
33% volumeremoved
50% volumeremoved
100% volumeremoved
$/Ton
Results: Break-even Pulp Prices 2
Pulpwood Break-even Price(Peeler prices constant at $300/MBF)
$0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30
49% Pulp/51%Peeler
35% Pulp/65%Peeler
49% Pulp/51%Peeler
$/Ton
50% volume removed
33% volume removed
Results: Break-even Pulp Prices 1 & 2
Break-even Prices When Whole Volume Sold as Pulp
$0 $20 $40 $60
33% volumeremoved
50% volumeremoved
100% volumeremoved
$/Ton
Pulpwood Break-even Price(Peeler prices constant at
$300/MBF)
$0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30
49% Pulp/51%Peeler
35% Pulp/65%Peeler
49% Pulp/51%Peeler
$/Ton
50% volume removed
33% volume removed
Results: Break-even Peeler Prices 1
$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
49% Pulp/51% Peeler
35% Pulp/65% Peeler
49% Pulp/51% Peeler
35% Pulp/65% Peeler
49% Pulp/51% Peeler
35%Pulp/65% Peeler
$/MBF
100% volume removed
50% volume removed
33% volume removed
(only peeler volume is sold)
Results: Break-even Peeler Prices 2
$0 $100 $200 $300 $400
49% Pulp/51% Peeler
35% Pulp/65% Peeler
49% Pulp/51% Peeler
35% Pulp/65% Peeler
49% Pulp/51% Peeler
35% Pulp/65% Peeler
$/MBF
100% volume removed50% volume removed33% volume removed
(Pulp price held constant at $20/ton)
Results: Break-even Peeler Prices 1 & 2
$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
49% Pulp/51% Peeler
35% Pulp/65% Peeler
49% Pulp/51% Peeler
35% Pulp/65% Peeler
49% Pulp/51% Peeler
35%Pulp/65% Peeler
$/MBF
100% volume removed
50% volume removed
33% volume removed
Peeler Break-even Prices (only peeler volume sold)
Peeler Break-even Prices (Pulp price held constant at $20/ton)
$0 $100 $200 $300 $400
49% Pulp/51% Peeler
35% Pulp/65% Peeler
49% Pulp/51% Peeler
35% Pulp/65% Peeler
49% Pulp/51% Peeler
35% Pulp/65% Peeler
$/MBF
100% volume removed50% volume removed33% volume removed
Results: Poplars vs. Other Skagit Valley Crops
$30 Pasture
$50-$100Peas
$249 Poplars 50% volume removed, 49/51 mix
$381 Poplars 50% volume removed, 35/65 mix
$200-$500Cucumbers
$1,218 Poplars 100% volume removed, 49/51 mix
$1,631 Poplars 100% volume removed, 35/65 mix
$1,500-$2,500Potatoes
$500-$6,500Blueberries
NPV/AcreCrop
$30 Pasture
$50-$100Peas
$249 Poplars 50% volume removed, 49/51 mix
$381 Poplars 50% volume removed, 35/65 mix
$200-$500Cucumbers
$1,218 Poplars 100% volume removed, 49/51 mix
$1,631 Poplars 100% volume removed, 35/65 mix
$1,500-$2,500Potatoes
$500-$6,500Blueberries
NPV/AcreCrop
Summary of Key Findings
Production of 100% hybrid poplar pulpwood is not profitable for any level of harvest at current market prices.
In general, when less volume per acre is harvested, it becomes more difficult to remain profitable. Net Present Values are lower and break-even prices must be higher for the operation to remain viable.
Summary of Key Findings (Cont.)
Diversifying product mix gives the operation greater ability to sustain decreases in product prices and still remain viable.
Investments in improving wood quality have to be cost effective and produce significant results in order to make economic sense.
Hybrid poplar investments can be competitive with other agricultural crops grown in the Skagit Valley, assuming there are adequate wood markets.
Future Directions: Potential Buffer Markets
Alternative MarketsAlternative Markets
Non-wood products
Carbon sequestration
Water Quality credits
Special Thanks To:
Bayview Farms
Rural Technology Initiative
Potlatch Hybrid Poplar Program
Further Analyses
Sensitivity Interest rates Volume and product mix at harvest
age
Shorter and longer rotation ages
Intermediate harvest intensities
Wider initial spacing
![COURT OF QUEEN’S BENCH OF MANITOBA...v. Dobrowolski, 2019 MBQB 126, [2019] M.J. No. 230 (QL), which in turn cites and relies on the decisions in Bradshaw and Fawley. In Dobrowolski,](https://img.pdfslide.us/doc/110x75/5e93204fa9e85e7b604cd85d/court-of-queenas-bench-of-v-dobrowolski-2019-mbqb-126-2019-mj-no-230.jpg)
