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Mar/2010
Airline Market OverviewA perspective from the 30 to 120-seat segment
Mauro KernExecutive Vice-President Airline Market
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
This presentation includes forward-looking statements or statements about events or circumstances which have not occurred. We have based these forward-looking statements largely on our current expectations and projections about future events and financial trends affecting our business and our future financial performance. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions, including, among other things: general economic, political and business conditions, both in Brazil and in our market.
The words “believes,” “may,” “will,” “estimates,” “continues,” “anticipates,”“intends,” “expects” and similar words are intended to identify forward-looking statements. We undertake no obligations to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements because of new information, future events or other factors. In light of these risks and uncertainties, the forward-looking events and circumstances discussed in this presentation might not occur. Our actual results could differ substantially from those anticipated in our forward-looking statements.
Forward Looking Statement
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Contents
Air Transport Industry Review
ERJ 145 Family
E-Jets Family
Competitive Scenario
Product Development
Market Outlook 2010-2019
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Economic Scenario
World Real GDP Evolution (USD 2005)
35
40
45
50
55
60
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F
Rea
l GD
P (U
S$ tr
illio
ns)
Source: The Economist (Feb/10)
World will return to pre-crisis level in 2010 (due to emerging countries)USA and Europe will recover in 2011-12
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
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Air Transport Demand - IATA
IATA: “The industry starts 2010 with some enormous challenges. The worst is behind us, but it is not time to celebrate.”
World – International RPK Growth Rate (% yoy)
5.9% 7.4% 1.6 % -3.5%
Source: IATA (Jan/10)
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Source: IATA and ICAO (Dec/09)
2009: Reduced demand due to economic crisis2010-2013: Projected demand recovery
5,06,2 6,15,8 4,5
-4,1
5,53,3
-3,1
1,3
7,4
2006
2007
2008
2009
F
2010
F
2011
F
2012
F
2013
F
IATA ICAO
RPK Growth Rate (% yoy)
Demand Forecast – IATA and ICAO
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Gradual recovery of market demand
Weak revenue environment, signs of improvement (IATA halved its loss forecast for 2010 to US$2.8bi)
Continuous efficiency improvement and cost reductions
Limited aircraft financing resources
More consolidations & mergers and fewer start-ups
Long term growth in air transport demand despite current crisis
Air Transport Industry Review – a summary
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Air Transport Demand – US Mainline vs. Regionals
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
E20
10F
2011
F
RPM
(Bill
ion)
US Domestic
RPM cagr 2009-2030F
MainlineCarriers +2,9%
Regional Carriers +4,2%
FAA Forecast (Mar2010): higher growth rates for Regionalsincreased use of 70-90 regional jet aircraft
Source: FAA
FAA Aviation ForecastMainline: -0,2% cagr
Regional: +13,3% cagr
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Dec 1998Dec 1998
Dec 1999Dec 1999
Aug 2000Aug 2000
Mar 2001Mar 2001 Sep 2001Sep 2001 May 2003May 2003
Dec 1996Dec 1996
First DeliveryFirst Delivery
May 2002May 2002 Feb 2005Feb 2005May 2004May 2004
September, 2007
1,100 ERJ145 Platforms Already Delivered
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Num
ber o
f ER
Js (u
nits
)
Pre-Owned ERJ Transfers
Source: Embraer (Mar/09)
61 pre-owned ERJ transfers in the last two years (2008-09)
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Pre-Owned ERJ Transactions
Aeromexico Connect - MexicoFinnComm - Finland
BMI – United Kingdom
Satena - Colombia
Trans States - US
Dniproavia - Ukraine
Republic - US
Diexim Expresso - Angola
City Airline - Sweden
Nearly 170 pre-owned ERJ transactions since 2000
Passaredo - Brazil
Athens Airways - Greece
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
1st. E195 Delivery to Air Dolomiti (Italy)
(January 27, 2009)
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
1st. E170 Delivery to Fuji Dream Airlines (Japan)
(February 20, 2009)
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
1st. E190 Delivery to Niki (Austria)
(May 14, 2009)
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
1st. E195 Delivery to Augsburg Airways (Germany)
(June 9, 2009)
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
1st. E195 Delivery to Windrose (Ukraine)
(June 22, 2009)
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
(June 24, 2009)
1st. E175 Delivery to Trip (Brazil)
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
1st. E190 Delivery to LAM (Mozambique)
(July 31, 2009)
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
1st. E170 Delivery to BA Cityflyer (United Kingdom)
(September 3, 2009)
600th. E-Jet delivered to LOT Polish Airlines
September 15th., 2009 !!!
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
1st. E195 Delivery to Lufthansa Cityline (Germany)
(September 24, 2009)
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
New E-Jet Customer – Air Astana (Kazakhstan)
(Nov/09 ; 2 E190 Jetscape)
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
New E-Jet Customer – Oman Air (Oman)
(Nov/09 ; 5 E175)
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
New E-Jet Customer – Austral (Argentina)
(20 E190)
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
1st. E170 Delivery to Gulf Air (Barhain)
(March 4, 2010)
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
E190 at London City Airport
Carriers cleared to use Carriers cleared to use EmbraerEmbraer 190 at London City190 at London City“BA CityFlyer, Baboo and Lufthansa Cityline will be the first to operate the EMBRAER 190 out of LCY. ”
BabooBaboo debuts debuts EmbraerEmbraer 190 at London City190 at London City
“We are especially proud to be the first to operate this aircraft, the most comfortable and popular regional jet, into this most user-friendly airport” – Jacques Bankir, CEO of Baboo
(2010)
BA BA CityFlyerCityFlyer starts introducing starts introducing EmbraerEmbraer 190s190s
“We are now on the last leg of our fleet replacement programme and our passengers will benefit from the extra space these new, greener aircraft offer.”– Peter Simpson, Managing Director of BA Cityflyer
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Grand Slam: E-Jets at Europe´s top airlines
Source: Embraer (Dec/09)
Orders Backlog
17 E190 1615 E195
Orders Backlog
6 E170 65 E190
Orders Backlog
10 E170 3
10 E190
Orders Backlog
17 E190 7
620+ E-Jets. 56 Airlines. 39 Countries620+ E-Jets. 56 Airlines. 39 Countries
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Fleet efficiency
is a critical issue
to airlines
Current Environment Requires Fleet Optimization
Capacity Cuts
DecreasingDemand & Yields
Fuel & Environment
Pressure
Right-sized aircraft help airlines to improvefuel burn (environment) and results
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
0
100
200
300
400
500
51 - 75 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 500 1000 >1000Passenger per Day Each Way (PDEW)
Num
ber o
f Mar
kets
Market Density Profile - USA
51-150 PDEW
55%
Source: US DOT (3Q09)
USA domestic mainly low-mid density markets77% up to 300 PDEW
151-300
22% >30023%
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
26-50 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 >800Passenger per Day Each Way (PDEW)
Num
ber o
f Mar
kets
Market Density Profile – Latin America
26-100 PDEW
54%
Source: SABRE (2009)
Intra Latin America mainly low-mid density markets82% up to 300 PDEW
101-300
28%
>30018%
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
0
50
100
150
200
250
26-50 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 >1000Daily Passengers
Num
ber o
f Mar
kets
Market Density Profile – China
China mainly low-mid density markets76% up to 300 daily passengers
Source: China Airline Traffic Statistics 2008 (Markets with at least one weekly frequency)
26-100
46% 101-300
30%
>30024%
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Passengers per Departure – USA
Around 610,000 flights (~18%) of total J121-210 with loadsfrom 61 to 105 pax per departure and low daily frequencies (up to 2)
Source: US DOT (Nov/08-Oct/09)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
46-60 61-75 76-90 91-105 106-120 121-135 > 135
>2
<=2
Narrowbodies (121-210 seats)
DailyFrequencies
Passengers per Departure
Ann
ual F
light
s (x
100
0)
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
The CASM Paradigm
6161‐‐7575 7676‐‐9090 9090‐‐105105
(1,757)(1,757)
(1,051)(1,051)
454454
(504)(504)
177177
1,4341,4341,3051,305
2,0952,095
733733
Environment:Avg Sector:Avg Fare:Fuel Price:
US LCC800 sm100 USD2 USD/gal
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
The CASM Paradigm – the ultimate rule
Fare Level
Passenger Demand per Flight
CONTRIBUTION TO PROFIT PER FLIGHTCONTRIBUTION TO PROFIT PER FLIGHTCo
ntribu
tion
to Profit
per Flight
100100‐‐SEATERSEATER
PaxPax//FlightFlight < 120< 120
NBNB
PaxPax//FlightFlight > 120> 120
“A place for everything and everything in its place”
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
E-Jets Deployment
Source: OAG (1Q10)
World
8%
21%
8%
21%
21%
Natural Growth
29%29%
20%20% 7%7%
5%5% 32%32%
11%11%
50%
Right-sizing
NorthAmerica
57%
NorthAmerica
57%
Europe
40%
Europe
40%
LatinAmerica
49%
LatinAmerica
49%
Africa
52%
Africa
52%
Middle East
62%
Middle East
62%
C hina
12%
C hina
12%
Asia Pacific
50%
Asia Pacific
50%
8%8%
14%14%
New Markets
6%6%
20%31%20%31%
5%
33%
5%
33%
49%49%
39%39%
20%
8%8%
Replacementof old Jets
25%25%
33%33%
7%7%
9%
North America
Middle East
Africa
Europe
LatinAmerica
China
Asia Pacific
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
E-Jets: Complementing Narrowbodies
Source: OAG (2010)
SEATS06:0007:0008:0009:0010:0011:0012:0013:0014:0015:0016:0017:0018:0019:0020:0021:0022:0023:00
Madrid – Paris (ORY)
B738
B738
744 606Dec/08 Dec/09
E195
B738
B738B738
B738 E195
494 342Sep/08 Sep/09
A320
E190
E190
A321
A320
San Salvador - Guatemala
A320
Edmouton–Vancouver
1032Dec/08
A320
930Dec/09
A319
E190
A320
A320
A319
E190
E190CRJ700
A320
E190
A320
A319
E190
E190
E190
A320
Amsterdam – Berlin
B737
754Jan/09
611Jan/10
E190
B737
B737
B737
B737
B737
B737
F70
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
E-Jets Complementing Narrowbodies
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
SEATS06:0007:0008:0009:0010:0011:0012:0013:0014:0015:0016:0017:0018:0019:0020:0021:0022:0023:00
Source: OAG (2009)
Frankfurt - Katowice
714 420Sep/08 Sep/09
E170
E170
E170
E170
E170
E170
B737
B737
B737
B737
B737
B737
E-Jets: Replacing Narrowbodies
690 520Sep/08 Sep/09
Brisbane - Oakhampton
E190
E190
E190
E190
B737
B737
B737
B737
B737
E190
Los Angeles - Vancouver
480 465May/07 May/09
E190
E190
E190
E190
A319
A319
A319
A319
Amsterdam - Helsinki
513 392Dec/08 Dec/09
E190
E190
E190
E190
B737
B737
B737
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
E-Jets Helping Explore New Markets
Low Cost Carriers with Two Fleet Types
E190E190E190 E190
100
150+
Seat
s
B737-700A320 A320 A320
Middle EastEuropeAsia PacificNorth America
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
E-Jets Helping Reduce Costs and Fuel Burn
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Source: www.eforefficiency.comNote: European economic conditions, fuel at 0.50 EUR/liter
E-Jets: Direct Replacement Benefits
Fuel Burn
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Replacement Opportunities - World
B717-200
B737-200
B737-500
F70 F28
F100DC-9
Bae 146
TU-134YAK-42
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
5 15 25 35
Num
ber o
f Airc
raft
Average Age (years)
Source: OAG (Dec/09 ; Passenger, Active in Service, Scheduled Services)
Nearly 1,000 aircraft with more than 15 years old
(Jets 61-120 seats)
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
E-Jets Family Order Book
Firm Orders Options Deliveries Firm
Backlog
EMBRAER 170 187 48 170 17
EMBRAER 175 140 178 125 15
EMBRAER 190 448 426 263 185
EMBRAER 195 87 70 47 40
Total 862 722 605 257(December 31th 2009)
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
E-Jets Worldwide Distribution
Customers Firm Orders
Diversified customer-base across five continentsIncreased presence in emerging markets with established carriers
Source: Embraer (Dec/09)
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
E-Jets Backlog Evolution
Emerging Countries include Brazil, Russia, India, China and Eastern Europe.
71%
31%
20%
22%
8%
16%
1%
32%
2005 Dec/2009
Emerging Countries
RoW
Europe
North America
322 Acft 257 Acft
Backlog Share per Region (# of Aircraft):
North America + Europe share decreased from 91% to 53%
Source: Embraer (Dec/09)
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
E-Jets Schedule Reliability & Completion Rate
99,22
99,88
98,00
98,25
98,50
98,75
99,00
99,25
99,50
99,75
100,00
JAN
FEB
MAR AP
R
MAY JU
N
JUL
AUG
SEP
OC
T
NO
V
DEC JA
N
FEB
MAR AP
R
MAY JU
N
JUL
AUG
SEP
OC
T
NO
V
DEC JA
N
FEB
MAR AP
R
MAY JU
N
JUL
AUG
SEP
OC
T
NO
V
DEC
2007 2008 2009
SR/C
R (%
)
SR - MONTH SR - L12M CR - MONTH CR - L12M
Schedule Reliability: 99.2% ; Completion Rate: 99.9%
99.9%
99.2%
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Market Share - World (Jets 61-120 seats)
Considering accumulated Net Orders up to Dec/09.
Embraer: 170/175/190/195 Sukhoi: Superjet 100Bombardier: CRJ700/900/1000; CS110 Comac: ARJ-21Airbus: A318 Antonov: An-148Boeing: B737-600 Mitsubishi: MRJ90
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
E-Jets vs. New Entrants
MRJ70
MRJ90
ARJ21
E195
E190
E175
E170
SSJ100/95
CS100
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
1800 2000 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000 3200
Seat
Cap
acity
(32
'' pitc
h)
Range (nm)
110 Seats
100 Seats
70-90 Seats
Competitive Scenario
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
4,500 kg heavier than E195
Higher DOC than E195
Risk associated with new engine technology (GTF)
Implications for CS100 perceived as heavy andinneficient
Momentum after Republic CS300 vs. A319/737-700
CS 150-seater derivative Competition vs. A320/737-800
Competition: CS100 vs. E195
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Major design review in 2009: back to metallic wing, increasedcross-section.
3,500 kg heavier than E175
Equivalent DOC vs. E175 but at higher risks:
Challenging integration and development
Risk associated with new engine technology (GTF)
TSA deal no bid ; price agressiveness sustainable??
Competition: E175 vs. MRJ90
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Wingtip devices
Advanced structures Composites / Metallic
Avionics functionalities
Electric taxi Geared and Adv. Turbofan engines
2015/2016
Health monitoring systems(On condition maintenance)
APU Fuel Cell Carbon compositesnanotubes (2nd gen.)
2nd generationGTF/ATF
2017/2019
Open Rotor / New Configs / Advanced Aerodynamics Single pilot capability
2020/2025
Expected Technologies for Commercial Aviation
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
New Technologies and Next Generation
2015/2016 2017/2019 2020/2025
Potential COC vs.
Curren
t Techn
ology
4%7%
Industry focus on new technologies maturity
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Competitive Product Positioning along time
2010 2015 2020
mature new
entrant
competition from next-gen NB
new entrant maturation
New entrants introduction Next Gen NB
higher averageCompetitive positioning code:
New entrants competitiveness
mature new entrantnew entrant maturation
New entrants introduction
2010 2015 2020
New entrants competitiveness
in case of NB re-engining
competition from next-gen NB
Next Gen NB
lower
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Embraer Market Forecast (2010-2019)
Projected Deliveries - Jets
Market Segment(Seats)
2010 – 2019Deliveries
30-60 60
61-90 1015
91-120 1550
30-120 2625
Around 2600 jet deliveries (US$ 80bi) in the next 10 years.
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Embraer Market Forecast (2010-2019)
NorthAmerica
84032%
LatinAmerica
31512%
Europe
58022%
Russia / CIS
1556%
Africa
803%
Middle East
1054% Asia
Pacific
2108%
China
34013%
2,625 jet deliveries (30-120 seats)
620+ E-Jets. 56 Airlines. 39 Countries620+ E-Jets. 56 Airlines. 39 Countries