Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) and Remaining Risk Safety Enhancements North Asia Regional Aviation Safety Team Bangkok, Thailand January 2007 North

Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)

and

Remaining Risk Safety Enhancements

Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)

and

Remaining Risk Safety Enhancements

North Asia Regional Aviation Safety Team

Bangkok, Thailand

January 2007

North Asia Regional Aviation Safety Team

Bangkok, Thailand

January 2007

Kyle Olsen – Glenn MichaelKyle Olsen – Glenn Michael

COMMERCIAL AVIATION SAFETY TEAM

(CAST)2020 Safety Plan Status

December 7, 2006

2020 CAST Safety Plan - December 7, 2006

On Tgt13%

Late4%

Complete83%

39

62

47 Safety Enhancements

39 Complete

08 Underway

Risk Reduction Estimated To Date

65.0 %

2020 Plan Risk Reduction Estimated

70.9 %

2020 CAST SAFETY PLAN – 47SE; 39 Complete; 6 Underway

1

15.1

2

15.0

3

.5

4

1.1

5

.4

6

7.9

7

7.9

8

7.9

9

.8

10

16.4

11

3.4

12

5.3

13

.8

14

5.7

15

9.2

16

.7

17

0

18

1.5

19

0.1

20

3.6

21

1.5

23

7.4

24R2

2.4

25

6.0

26

2.3

27

8.8

28

5.0

29

1.9

30R1

0.7

31

12.2

32

0

34R1

0

39

0

40

0

46

1.6

47

1.2

49

1.5

50

2.6

53

2.7

52

0

51

0

55

1.7

59

0

60

1.5

78

0

84

.8

85

1.2

COMPLETE ON TRACK IN QUESTION LATE

JIMDAT Score/2007 implementation level

Complete except for measurement

120

0

Late Safety Enhancements

Safety Enhancements Individual Risk Reduction

– 30R1 Human Factors and Automation 0.7

– 47 CRM Training for Tower Controllers 1.2

NEEDING MEASUREMENT

– 27 Risk Assessment 8.8

– 31 AMT Ground and Simulator Training 12.2

– 49 SOP’s for Ground Operations 1.5

– 78 Cabin Injury Reduction During Turbulence 0.0

Study of Remaining Risks

Background


Background

Joint Implementation Data Analysis Team (JIMDAT)

HUMAN FACTORSIN OPERATIONS &

MAINTENANCE

Carry-on Baggage

Child Restraint

Passenger Interference

CABIN SAFETY

IMPROVED DATA & ANALYSIS

GENERAL AVIATION

Loss of Control

Weather

Survivability

Aeronautical Decisionmaking

Controlled Flight

Into Terrain Approach and Landing

COMMERCIAL AVIATION

Controlled Flight Into Terrain

Loss of Control

Weather

Uncontained Engine Failures

Runway IncursionPassenger Seat Belt Use

Runway Incursions

Safer SkiesSafer Skies

Turbulence

Copyright © 2006 Boeing. All rights reserved. 9 ׀

Resource Cost Vs. Risk ReductionResource Cost Vs. Risk Reduction

APPROVED PLAN

Completed + Plan (2007

Implementation Level)

Completed + Plan (2020

Implementation Level)

All JSIT Proposed Enhancements

(2020 Implementation

Level)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

Re

so

urc

e C

os

t ($

Mil

lio

ns

)

Risk Reduction

Total Cost in $ (Millions)

2007 2020

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Ris

k E

lim

ina

ted

by

Sa

fety

En

ha

nc

em

en

ts

Completed

$$

$$ $$ $$

$$


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

CFIT, Approach-and-Landing, and Loss-of-Control Major AccidentsWestern-Built Commercial Jets

CFIT, Approach-and-Landing, and Loss-of-Control Major AccidentsWestern-Built Commercial Jets

CFIT accident rateApproach-and-landing accident rateLoss-of-Control accident rate

YearMaj

or

Acc

iden

ts p

er m

illio

n d

epar

ture

s

3 year moving average (CFIT)

3 year moving average (Approach and landing)3 year moving average (Loss of Control)

Source: Ascend, Boeing

* 1 January through 1 September 2006** Worldwide departure/rates are estimated through August 31, 2006. Departure data not available for Eastern-Built Aircraft


All Regions Combined Portion of Fatality Risk Mitigated If CAST Plan is Adopted World Wide

(2007 Implementation Values)

Accident Classes Defined by CAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Risk Eliminated

Total CFIT LOC-I SCF-PP

SCF-NP

Ice Midair

Risk Remaining

Portionof Risk

(percent)

1987-2001 Equivalent Part 121 Hull Loss & Fatal Accidents


Results


Results

Joint Implementation Data Analysis Team (JIMDAT)

Remaining RiskRemaining Risk

• Cargo

• Icing

• Midair

• Maintenance

Status of RR SEsStatus of RR SEs

• 24 SEs and 11 R&D Projects were developed by RR JSITs– JIMDAT has evaluated the 24 SEs and comments

by CAST Members have been addressed. – The JIMDAT recommends 18 SEs for G level

approval. • 1 SE is recommended for CAST approval in

support of international activities• 4 SEs are recommended to be retained as

Safety Enhancements Reserved for Future Implementation (SERFI)

• 1 SE was eliminated by the JIMDAT

– R&D projects have yet to be evaluated• Planned action for February JIMDAT

SE Fatality Risk Reduction vs Resource Cost

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4%

Fatality Risk Reduction of Individual SEs Over and Above the 46 SE CAST Plan (70.9% @ 2020 Implementation Values)

SE

Re

so

urc

e C

os

t ($

Mil

lio

ns

)

Cost Benefit = 1:25

Cost Benefit = 1:1

Risk Reduction of and Resource Cost of Remaining Risk Safety Enhancements

60.0

62.0

64.0

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

78.0

80.0

Baseline Risk Reduction (46 SEs) Proposed RR SEs Total Risk Reduction - All 24 SEsDeveloped by RR JSITs (R&D excluded)

% R

isk

Re

du

cti

on

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

Re

so

urc

e C

os

t ($

Mill

ion

s)

19 Remaining Risk SEsResource Cost = $16.1 MillionBenefit to Cost Ratio: 30:1

All 23 Remaining Risk SEsResource Cost = $1.53 BillionBenefit to Cost Ratio: 1:3

70.9 % 76.5 %76.2%

Regional PerspectiveRegional PerspectiveAccident Rates Vary by Region of the WorldAccident Rates Vary by Region of the World

Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1996 through 2005

Accidents permillion departures

United Statesand Canada

0.4

Latin Americaand Caribbean

3.2

Europe0.6

China0.23Middle East

2.7

Africa9.7

Asia 1.9

Oceania0.0

(ExcludingChina)

JAA - 0.6Non JAA – 1.2

C.I.S.1

1 Insufficient fleet experience to generate reliable rate.

World1.03

Regional PerspectiveRegional PerspectiveAccident Rates Vary by Region of the WorldAccident Rates Vary by Region of the World

Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1996 through 2005

Accidents permillion departures

United Statesand Canada

0.4

Latin Americaand Caribbean

3.2

Europe0.6

China0.23Middle East

2.7

Africa9.7

Asia 1.9

Oceania0.0

(ExcludingChina)

JAA - 0.6Non JAA – 1.2

C.I.S.1

CAST65 SEs39 complete26 in work76% reduction

PAASTCFIT and ALAR

ESSI35 SEs JAA11 SEs EASA62% reduction

COSCAP UEMOA(late 2005)

COSCAP CISSpecific CIS Projects

COSCAP NA, SA, SEA27 SEs in work60% reduction

1 Insufficient fleet experience to generate reliable rate.

World1.03

COSCAP BA(late 2005)

COSCAP AM

COSCAP GS(2006)

JSIT Recommended SEs JIMDAT Recommendation

(SE130) Regulation Oversight Recommend for G Level Approval(SE129) Legal Recommend for G Level Approval(SE121) Cargo Loading Trn and SOPs Recommend for G Level Approval(SE131) Cargo Safety Culture Recommend for G Level Approval(SE125) Hazmat Processing Recommend for G Level Approval(SE127) Fire Supression Recommend for G Level Approval

(SE 163) See and avoid Recommend for G Level Approval(SE159) Airspace design Recommend for G Level Approval(SE164) Part 121 TCAS Installation Recommend for CAST Approval(SE165) TCAS policies and procedures Recommend for G Level Approval(SE162) Advanced Navigation Recommend for G Level Approval

(SE134) Avionics Recommend for G Level Approval(SE133) Aircraft Design Inflight Detection-Protection Recommend for G Level Approval(SE136) Training Recommend for G Level Approval

(SE-169) Policy & Procedures – Work Cards / Shift Change / Responsibilities / ManualsRecommend for G Level Approval(SE-175) Maintenance Policy & Procedures Recommend for G Level Approval (SE-170) Aircraft Design – OEM Continuous Monitoring of Service HistoryRecommend for G Level Approval (SE-172) Policy and Procedures – Gap Analysis of Maintenance Process & Follow on Action PlanRecommend for G Level ApprovalSE ( 101) Arc Fault Breakers Recommend for G Level Approval

(SE132) Flight Crew Smoke Fume Protection SERFI(SE 160) ATC situational awareness/displays SERFI(SE 161) ATC safety culture SERFI(SE137) Weather Information SERFI

SE-165 MidairTCAS Policies and Procedures

SE-165 MidairTCAS Policies and Procedures

• Prevent midair collisions by requiring flightcrews to follow TCAS Resolution Advisories (RA’s), establish procedures for TCAS range setting and requiring that TCAS-capable simulators and flight-training devices are used for training TCAS responses and Maneuvers.

• Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

SE-164 MidairTCAS Installation

SE-164 MidairTCAS Installation

• Worldwide installation of TCAS in all aircraft of 33,000 pounds or greater max takeoff weight.

• ICAO requirement for aircraft of 5,700kg


SE-121 CargoStandard Operating Procedures

SE-121 CargoStandard Operating Procedures

• Reduce cargo-related accidents and incidents by publishing and enforcing clear, concise and accurate standard operating procedures (SOP), and training the rationale behind those procedures


SE-125 CargoHazardous Materials - HazMat

SE-125 CargoHazardous Materials - HazMat

• Reduce hazmat related accidents and incidents develop and implement by regulators, manufacturers (of packaging material) and shipping companies a multi-tier system to identify and safely process undeclared hazardous material.


SE-129 Regulation & PolicyCompliance, Enforcement and Restricted

Operations

SE-129 Regulation & PolicyCompliance, Enforcement and Restricted

Operations

• Regulators should improve their legal processes for compliance, enforcement and operational restrictions.


SE-130 CargoRegulation & Policy - Oversight

SE-130 CargoRegulation & Policy - Oversight

• Regulators should develop/enhance and implement a system that ensures appropriate inspector coverage for all airlines, sub-contracting, and leasing operations and assign highly-experienced inspectors to operators that require the most oversight


SE-131 CargoSafety CultureSE-131 CargoSafety Culture

• Reduce cargo-related accidents and incidents by encouraging a culture that enhances operational safety. Safety culture can be enhanced by a safety management system (SMS).


SE-136 IcingTraining – Engine Surge Recovery

SE-136 IcingTraining – Engine Surge Recovery

• To prevent accidents resulting from an engine surge caused by ice ingestion, airlines should provide adequate training for flight crews to ensure appropriate responses.


SE-163 MidairSee-and AvoidSE-163 MidairSee-and Avoid

• Prevent midair collisions by improving see-and-avoid capability.


SE-159 MidairAirspace Design

SE-159 MidairAirspace Design

• Prevent midair collisions by designing B/C/D airspace to be more easily identifiable, improving the usability of VFR charts and ensuring adequate and timely coordination of airspace design changes to users.


SE-162 MidairSE-162 Midair

• Prevent midair collisions by facilitating aircraft separation for users of advanced navigation systems not receiving ATC separation services.


SE-127 CargoFire Containment

SE-127 CargoFire Containment

• To reduce the occurrence of accidents and incidents from cargo fires, improved cargo containers should be developed to contain (or suppress) fires originating in shipped cargo

• Appropriate for implementation in Asia ?

SE-133 – IcingTurboprop Aircraft Ice Detection Systems

SE-133 – IcingTurboprop Aircraft Ice Detection Systems

• To prevent accidents caused by in-flight icing, for turboprop aircraft with non-evaporative ice protection systems and non-powered flight controls, install systems that automatically detect ice, measure the rate of ice accretion and warn the crew.


SE-134 IcingAircraft Design - Avionics

SE-134 IcingAircraft Design - Avionics

• Avionic manufacturers and aircraft manufacturers should develop and install smart pitch guidance systems on all aircraft not presently equipped to prevent over rotation in conjunction with a low energy state or aerodynamic degradation due to the presence of ice.


SE-101 Aircraft DesignAdvanced Circuit Protection

SE-101 Aircraft DesignAdvanced Circuit Protection

• Develop and install advanced circuit protection / arc fault breaker technology


SE-169 MaintenancePolicy & ProceduresSE-169 MaintenancePolicy & Procedures

• Airlines, operators and regulators should ensure that procedures are in place related to work cards, shift changes, responsibility and authority for work assignments and that necessary manuals are complete, accurate, available and appropriately used.


SE-170 MaintenanceAircraft Design

SE-170 MaintenanceAircraft Design

• Original equipment manufacturers (OEM) should monitor service history to verify that design and procedural assumptions valid.

• Operators should adhere to OEM recommendations or report maintenance task difficulties


SE-172 MaintenanceGap Analysis of Maintenance Process

SE-172 MaintenanceGap Analysis of Maintenance Process

• Identify and correct gaps within and between the maintenance processes that could inhibit the intended design level of safety.


SE-175 MaintenanceFlight Critical Configurations Changes

SE-175 MaintenanceFlight Critical Configurations Changes

• Airlines/maintenance should provide visible tagging any time the pitot static system is covered.

• Preflight procedures should include specific verification that pitot static ports are uncovered.


The Needs VaryThe Needs Vary

Capacity Efficiency Safety

Thank youThank you

Kyle Olsen – Glenn MichaelKyle Olsen – Glenn Michael

Documents

Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) and Remaining Risk Safety Enhancements North Asia Regional Aviation Safety Team Bangkok, Thailand January 2007 North