Commercial Aviation 2030+ - Technische Universität München · Bauhaus Luftfahrt •Airbus is supporting the lecture since 2006. •Since 2015 as integrated part of Airbus Cabin

Final Presentation | 17.01.2017

Automation in Commercial Aviation

2030+Automation & Robotics in Passenger Travel & Airline

Processes

HANDOUT TO PRESENTATION SLIDES

Slide 2

“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017

Intro | Copyright Statement

Copyright Technische Universität München, Airbus, Bauhaus Luftfahrt e.V, München, 2017.

Study performed by Technische Universität München, Airbus, Bauhaus Luftfahrt e.V, ifmo and Flughafen München without any commercial interest.

Please note that all results, diagrams and pictures documented in this handout are only for internal use. This document shall not be reproduced or disclosed to a third party without the expressed written consent of the Institute of Aircraft Design, Technische Universität München, Airbus and Bauhaus Luftfahrt e.V.

Munich & Hamburg, January 2017

Slide 3


Intro | Project Responsibilities

Technische Universität München

Gilbert Tay

Airbus Operations GmbH

Axel Becker

Process Design & Moderation

Axel Becker / Gilbert Tay

Slide 4


Intro | Contact

Technische Universität MünchenLehrstuhl für LuftfahrtsystemeBoltzmannstraße 1585747 GarchingGilbert Tay, M.Sc.Tel: +49 (0) 89 289 [email protected]

Airbus Operations GmbHCabin MarketingKreetslag 1021129 HamburgDipl.-Ing. Axel BeckerTel: +49 (0) 40 743 [email protected]

Slide 5


Intro | Project Participants

STUDENTS

Martin AzzouniIason BauseweinAlexander DepserMarc HirschkaRobin KarpsteinFlorian MeindlDaniel MetzlerPatrick MuschakJacob NowakFlavio RehnChristina RosenmöllerJulian SchmidThomas Schönberger

EXPERTS

Gilbert Tay - Lehrstuhl für LuftfahrsystemeAxel Becker - Airbus Annika Paul - Bauhaus Luftfahrt e.V.Kai Plöttner - Bauhaus Luftfahrt e.VPeter Phleps - Institut für Mobilitätsforschung (ifmo)Christoph Schneider - Flughafen München GmbHJördis Därr - Airbus Kevin Keniston - Airbus

Slide 6


Intro | Table of Contents

1. Welcome – Prof. Mirko Hornung (BHL/LLS), Axel Becker (Airbus) 7

2. Topic Motivation - Gilbert Tay (TUM) 12

3. Project and Scenario Approach – Gilbert Tay (TUM) 15

3. Description of Scenario Results – Students 20

– Scenario A 25

– Scenario B 42

– Scenario C 57

4. Synthesis of Scenario Results – Students 73

5. Conclusions & Outlook – Students 89


Slide 7

WelcomeProf. Mirko Hornung (TUM/BHL), Axel Becker (Airbus)

Slide 8


Welcome | Overview Institute of Aircraft Design

As part of the Institute for Aerospace at the Technische Universität München the Institute of Aircraft Design focuses on the three topics:

Scenario Analysis, Future Trends &

Technologies

Aircraft Design (civil & military)

Analysis & Evaluation ofAir Transport Systems

Slide 9


Welcome | Main Objectives

What are the main objectives of the practical course„Air Transport Scenarios“ at TUM?

• To deepen the insight into the cross impacts within the air transport system on basis of a specific issue

• Presentation of scenario techniques as a methodology for strategic planning

• Strengthening of soft skills:structured communication, organization and discussion within groups and plenum, presentation of complex results

cross-system thinking within

aviation

presentation of scenario

methodology

strengthening of soft skills

Slide 10


Welcome | History

10th Scenario project of Airbus with TU München & Bauhaus Luftfahrt

• Airbus is supporting the lecture since 2006.

• Since 2015 as integrated part of Airbus Cabin Marketing (before Cabin Innovation).

• Working with scenarios to better understand future market developments.

• Close co-operations with internal and external stakeholders.

• “Green Airlines” scenario in 2015 part of Airbus´sustainability approach

Slide 11


Welcome | Focus Airbus

Automation & Robotics in Aviation

• Airlines & airports embrace smartphones as digital companions to further guide passengers towards a self-service environment along travel chain.

• Increasing applications and trials of automation & roboticsalong passenger travel chain and airline operations.

• Drones and robots further drive airline and airport processefficiency with smart humanoid service robots allowing an"emotionalization" of the human machine interface.

• Identification of cabin-related needs and opportunities inAirbus cabin strategy, R&T and innovation portfolio.

• Offer opportunities for internships and thesis projects in Airbus Cabin Marketing.


Slide 12

Topic MotivationGilbert Tay (TUM)

Slide 13


Topic Motivation | „Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+“

• Maintaining a competitive cost structure is crucial for airlines, amidst a persisting challenging operating environment. I.e. cost pressures to maximize overall productivity on one hand, ensuring more consistent operations at high standards as well as removing other constraints to growth.

• Automation along the passenger journey and in airline operations has been taking place in the last couple of years. E.g. self-service check-ins, bag-drop counters, automated boarding gates.

• Technology is advancing fast in automation, robotics and artificial intelligence:

More automation in other fields of transportation and tourism

Exploring opportunities of more automation in passenger & airline processes

Major investments made in these new fields of technology

• Challenges:

Passenger & user acceptance

Regulation & certification issues incl. safety & health issues

Relationships with crews, ground support staff and labour unions

Slide 14


Topic Motivation

Topic Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+

Region Global

Time Frame 2016 - 2030

Key questions:

1. How will future business models and strategies change in the air transport sector within an increasing „automation“ along passenger, airline and airport processes?

2. How will passenger and staff acceptance be influenced by more automation?

3. What are the „touch points“ (hardware & software) and core technologies along the entire travel chain („Door-2-Door“) and in airline processes?

4. What could be definitions for different grades of automation and the use of robots?

Main Questions Addressed in the Scenario Project


Slide 15

Project & Scenario Approach

Gilbert Tay (TUM)

Slide 16


Project & Scenario Approach | Scenario Techniques

Scenario techniques help to cope with uncertainty in future developments

A scenario is a consistent picture of a comprehensive, future situation

and

a description of how this situation has emerged

The question is not what will happen but what might happen?

Source: Daimler STRG

Slide 17


Project & Scenario Approach | Scenario Approach at LLS

Scenario transfer

Implicationanalysis

Scenario storyboards

Scenarioframeworks

Consistencyanalysis

Environment analysis

Problemdefinition

Methodical approach of scenario projects at TUM-LLS

2030

Slide 18


Project & Scenario Approach | Overview

Derivation of various Grades of Automation

Various Scenario-Specific Stakeholder

Implications

Kick-Off

Workshop 1

Workshop 2

Workshop 3

Security First

Inclusive Development

Golden Age of Automation Scenario presentations:

• Scenario description

• Travel-Chain Analysis

• SWOT-Analysis

Introduction to current developments and applications

Automation Environmental Analysis – Status Quo 2016

Operational Implementation SWOT-Analysis

Travel Chain Analysis – In 3 Scenarios 2030

• Airlines•P

ass

eng

er

2030

• Visibility•A

ware

ness

2030

Slide 19


Project & Scenario Approach | Intro to Student’s Presentation

Security First

Inclusive

Development

To be presented now

Golden Age of

Automation

Environment

analysis

today 2030

Structure of the

three Scenario

presentations:

• Scenario

description

• Travel-Chain

Analysis

• Stakeholder

SWOT-Analysis


Slide 20

Description of Scenario Results

Students

Slide 21


Scenario Results | Overview of Scenario Factors

• Political stability & security situation

• Legal framework for automation technologies

• Economic efficiency of automated systems

• Investment propensity on automation technologies

• Development of ICT

• Cyber-attack threats for automated systems

• Reliability of automated integrated systems

• Market penetration of advanced physical automated systems

• Development of collaborative data management

• Potential for travel time reduction from D2D

• Passenger acceptance of automatization along travel process

• Traffic load along passenger processes

• Development of air travel demand

• Demographic development

• Market structure of mobility service providers

• Use of automation to improve workplace safety

• Position of unions on introduction of automation

• Quality of access to airport

• Airport security practices

• Level of automation during aircraft ground handling

ECONOMICS, POLITICS & REGULATIONS

TECHNOLOGY SOCIAL & PASSENGER AIRLINE & AIRPORTS

Slide 22


Scenario Results | Uncertainty-Impact (UI) Analysis

Economics of automation

Security situation (Political stability)

Legal framework

Investment propensity

Workplace safety

Influence of unions

Technology development in ICT and A.I.

Technological advancement of physical automation and

robotics (incl. A.I.)

Automation system reliaility

Data managementand sharing

Ecology of automated systems

Data and cybersecurity

Travel (time) efficiency

User experience and expectations

Individualisation of pax needs

User acceptance

Consumer know-how and perception

Demographic development (aging / restricted accessibility)

Air traffic demand

Airport security regulations

Accessibility of airports (Door-2-Door)

Ground-handling automation (GSE)

Mobility service providers (Airlines and 3rd-parties)

Infrastructure capacity (D2D and Airport)

0

4

8

12

16

20

0 4 8 12 16 20

UN

CE

RT

AIN

TY

IMPACT very importantless important

rathercertain

ratheruncertain

Slide 23


Scenario Results | Criteria of Research

RELEVANCE

To have impact, the scenarios should connect directly with the mental maps and concerns of the user.

INTERNAL CONSISTENCY

The scenarios should be internally consistent to be effective.

DISSIMILITUDE

The scenarios should be archetypal and describe generically different futures rather than variations of one theme.

LASTING EQUILIBRIUM

Each scenario ideally should describe an equilibrium or a state in which the system might exist for some length of time, as opposed to being highly transient.

1

2

3

4

Slide 24


Scenario Results | 3 Scenarios at a Glance

Revolutionary technological developments

+ high investments in the industry

+ Passengers expect highly personalized services

A

Golden Ages of Automation

Coevolution instead of revolution

Incremental introduction of user focused and faultless automatization systems

+ high cooperation between MSPs

integrated D2D travel

B


Automation in aviation in a hesitant world & turbulent times

Ongoing cyber attacks

strict national standards and regulations

investor distrust and lack of passenger acceptance for automated systems

C

Security First


Slide 25

Scenario A



Slide 26

Scenario A | Storyboard

The worldwide political situation is still tense but there aren’t anyescalations. International trade agreements have been establishedbetween Europe, USA and South Korea which encourages the globaltrade market, securing an annual average GDP growth of 1.5% inEurope and Northern America. Due to the continued acceleratedglobalization the strong economic growth of BRICS states willcontinue, averaging at about 3.5%.

Thanks to the stable economy and political situation, air traveldemand increases by an average of 5.5% annually. Even thoughprocesses are streamlined, more planes are indispensable over time.

Manual and semi-autonomous systems are being replaced by fullyautonomous systems in high risk areas to increase workplace safety.Thanks to AI, ground support vehicles now drive autonomously,reducing costs and time between overhaul for airlines and airports.Tasks like refuelling the plane with water and kerosene are fulfilledautomatically. This leads to reduced costs for airports and airlines.

für Automatisierung


Slide 27

Scenario A | StoryboardIn 2022, the Federal Ministry of Automation is founded in Germany,based on a Japanese proof of concept in 2021. It is designed aroundthe principles of lean management and is in itself highly automatedand flexible. Its competences are: Setting standards for automatedsystems and providing certification marks, as well as workinginternationally to reduce the threat of cyber attacks and activelypushing the development of automated systems by providingsubsidies.

The federal ministries of automation of the western hemispherecollaborate in the Global Automation Treaty (GAT, 2024) toencourage investments in start-ups around automated technologiesthrough tax incentives. The demand for well educated people is veryhigh.

In disputes between stakeholders and unions in the EU, the unionsachieved a guideline, obligating the industry to offer re-education forat least 80% of the affected workforce. However, in developingcountries like India and Bangladesh, the integration of young, lowqualified workers represents a big problem, as the fight continuesbetween unemployed people and the application of automatedsystems. Bangladesh’s Attempt to ban automated systems if theytake away jobs from humans backfired, resulting in an economiccrisis in Bangladesh which is still affecting peoples lives today.

world education index


Slide 28


In 2030 the average passenger expects to see a cheap, yetpersonalized travel experience. To meet this expectation high qualitydata around each passenger is generated and shared between thesingle service providers to achieve a comfortable, fast and easy D2Dchain.

The traffic load on the way to the airports decreases, even though airtravel demand rises. Based on worldwide standards for autonomousdriving established at GAT in 2024, automated vehicles such asdrones, cars, busses and trains prevent traffic jams, especially in thededicated autonomous lanes, where they are able to drive faster andreduce the safe distance. This significantly improves the quality ofaccess to the airport for the passenger. Autonomous cars are oftenoffered in car sharing services, creating the advantage that thepassenger doesn’t have to drive, as well as worrying about a parkingspot. The big parking lots are now used for autonomous vehiclesfrom car sharing services offered by the airport as well as for rentalparking space to preserve airport earnings.

In 2027, the first drone taxi pilot project is tested which evolved fromthe Airbus Vahana project. With this approach, even more time canbe saved during the D2D travel time.


Slide 29


Upon arriving at the airport, the passenger checks in at the safetygate by showing his ticket and ID. The baggage is being dropped offat the automated station. The system matches the ID with the face-scanner data, screens the person and guides the passenger to hisgate on moving walkways. If the algorithms trigger a warning, thepassenger is further screened by security staff.

For airports, the integration of automation initially caused a problem.A lot less space is needed, as baggage drop, security check andemigration merge, as well as immigration, baggage claim andcustoms. The attempt to fill out these areas with more customerattractions failed in part as passenger servicing time was reduced.Later on this problem was resolved by the rising air demand,implicating an higher amount of passengers.


Slide 30


A lot is at stake with the strong market penetration of ICT. Cybercriminals are continuously launching attacks to gain access to highquality data, but as the systems revolutionized in the recent years,major IT systems are robust, so that they detect and defend againstmost attacks independently.

In 2026 the Geneva Cyber Convention (GCC) is adopted, entailingpolitical rules for cyber warfare, prohibiting attacks on civilians (dataleaks) and attacks on critical infrastructure (trains, nuclear reactors,autonomous cars, electricity grid, …). Also the threat coming fromnon-government cyber criminals was recognized. First steps to buildan international team to defend critical infrastructure and thepopulation from those attacks worldwide were taken and sincefurther expanded.


Slide 31


privacy ranking 2007

In addition to the high market penetration of ICT, the revolutionaryphysical automated systems effectively lower processing times forthe passenger. The intuitive interfaces for the passenger are wellaccepted by tech-savvy travelers, however older generations have ahard time trusting the new systems. As AI still has not reached ahumanoid level of intelligence, service points, customer care andother jobs that require human cognitive functions as emotions andcreativity are still occupied by humans. Media agencies mostlyreport positively about the application of new systems on behalf ofthe ministries to support user acceptance.

In the background, some ground handling tasks are still being donemanually since the architecture of planes hardly changed. However,the workforce is supported by exoskeletons and other highlyadaptable automated systems.

The high reliability level needed for the complex tasks in thebackground as well as on the interface to humans is guaranteedthrough machine certifications by the federal ministries ofautomation which confirm an average operating time of at least99.65%

After the big hacking disaster in 2023, where the database of theJohn-F.-Kennedy Airport was hacked and released to public, cyber-attacks became increasingly unsuccessful, due to robust defensesystems since then.


Slide 32


The attitude towards data privacy is relatively unchanged comparedto 2016. Society is divided – many fear the effects of big data, butironically they still share every little bit of it if it brings them anybenefit. On the other side data privacy activists warn of thisdevelopment and demand a more transparent handling of data bybig companies. They achieve the Worldwide Data-usage Act in 2024,giving the customer the ability to object commercial data usage.

Slide 33

Scenario A | Core Messages


Political Stability & Security situationContinuous economic growth

Political stability comparable to status quo

Development of ICTRevolutionary soft- & hardware development → high market penetration of automated systems

Investment Propensity on Automation

Tax incentives, need to keep up with market, cost cutting, …

Expectation towards personalized experience

Passengers expect highly personalized services due to high data availability

Traffic load along passenger processes

Non-invasive and highly automated security checks enable lower travel time

Slide 34

Scenario A | Timeline


2018

Political tensions in middle east continue

2019 2022 2023 2025 2026 2030

Critical data leak at New York JFK airport

Geneva cyberconvention regulatescyber warfare

Federal ministry of automation encourages development through legal frameworks. Industry must offer reeducation and improved workplace safety

Extensive use ofautomated travel

Fully integrated and automated security, check-in and baggage drop processes

Maiden flight Airbus Vahana

Bundesministeriumfür Automatisierung

Slide 35

Scenario A | Travel Chain

Booking & PlanningBaggage Drop, Security & Emigration/Immigration

Retail, Shopping, Lounge & Waiting


• Artificial Intelligence as Personal Assistant

• Passenger Screening & Profiling

• Aviation AI

• Personalized Information with regards to flight/shopping/F&B

• Personalized Routing to Gate/Shopping

Slide 36


Gate / BoardingBus Transfer & Ground

HandlingIn-Flight / Cabin


• Artificial Intelligence monitors passenger throughout Terminal -> No ID Check required anymore

• Boarding optimized with respect to passenger Comfort enabled through AI

• Autonomous vehicles operate on the tarmac (Up until interface with the A/C)

• Aircraft Surveillance

• Drones support Pre-Flight Check

• No Money on board. Cash less payment through facial recognition by AI linked to boarding Ticket (Billing information)

• Automated Service Robots

• More differentiation between booking classes

Slide 37


Baggage Claim & Customs

Customer FeedbackAircraft MRO Between

Flights


• AI reunites baggage & passenger on automated even escalator (Human is moved on conveyer belt)

• Screened baggage is either cleared together with passenger or rerouted to Customs

• Personal Assistant on smartphone gathers Feedback

• Facial recognition enables AI to identify current state of well-being

• Automated Anti-Germs Warfare

• No unauthorized access through Aircraft Surveillance

• Maintenance inspections by drones

Slide 38

Scenario A | Stakeholder Analysis | Full Service Carrier

OPPORTUNITIES

S WO T

STRENGTHS

FSC

• Market share

• Number of offered destinations

• Data / experience / know customer groups very well (frequent traveler programs)

• Existing alliances / co-operations

• Internal technology & system operation capabilities / know-how

• Good co-operation with their main hub(s)

WEAKNESSES

• Dependent on hub airport development

• Missing flexibility / old structures / strong unions / etc.

• Limited door-to-door capabilities / know-how

• High fix costs (e.g. pilots)

• Rather slow in innovation topics

THREATS


• High-end / tailored experience for customer groups

• Extending travel chain beyond classical departure and arrival / possibility to cooperate with MSP / other airlines / etc.

• Enhance efficiency of hub operations

• Too slow to cope with revolutionary development

• Difficulty in replacing humans with automations (unions: 80% of staff)

• Problems in competing with prices of LCCs

Slide 39

Scenario A | Stakeholder Analysis | Low Cost Carrier

OPPORTUNITIES

S WO T

STRENGTHS

LCC

• Consistently profitable

• Cost efficiency (outsource many services, low capital investments flexibility)

• Rather fast in innovation topics

• More flexible due to the route network choice of destinations

• Offer to the passenger

WEAKNESSES


• Not present at major airports

• Not compelling to high value customers

• Image issues

• Limited growth potential

• Limited internal technology & system operation capabilities / know-how

• Lower yields in general

THREATS


• Greater efficiency of aircraft and passenger services due to greater automation

• Change service providers who offer better services for lower costs

• Better understand customer base

• Airport and passenger handling costs are higher

• Passengers expect highly personalized services due to high data availability

• FSCs can achieve similar cost efficiency due to automated services

Slide 40

Scenario A | Stakeholder Analysis | HUB Airport

OPPORTUNITIES

S WO T

STRENGTHS

HUB

• Network of destinations

• Economies of scale (Passenger, A/C movements) and scope (synergies)

• Diversity of business segments

• High yield passengers

• Passenger differentiation

• Accessibility of intermodal transportation

• Co-operation / -branding with “home” network carrier

WEAKNESSES

• Capacity constraints due to high traffic(esp. during peak hours)

• Strong dependency on network carrier

• Long distances within terminals

• Dependence on transfer market

• Physical infrastructure development

• Often location in urban areas limits options to expand

THREATS


• Process optimization

• Creating new capacity

• Easing the traveler's journey

• Tailored passenger information

• Personalized advertising

• Support from the government

• Autonomous driving outcomes of automation: non-used infrastructure

• Difficulty to tackle needs of inhomogeneous passenger group through standardized full-scale automation

• Greater potential for cyber-attacks

Slide 41

Scenario A | Stakeholder Analysis | “Secondary” Airport

OPPORTUNITIES

S WO T

STRENGTHS

2ND

• More growth potential

• More regional and local stakeholder focused –ability to work together to support new routes and build airline confidence

• Proximity to destinations with high awareness and appeal

WEAKNESSES

• Few transit passengers

• Cannot stimulate growth beyond a ceiling

• Higher cost of other on-airport service providers

• Peak hour infrastructure pressure

• Consumer expectations of international passenger experience (retail etc.)

• More limited ground transport options

• Limited cargo potential

• Highly seasonal

THREATS


• Development of autonomous vehicles

• Easy shopping, cashless payment

• More detailed personalized passenger database existing customer base

• Regional competition dedicated to easier way of access to airport

• High investments to remain market leader (continuous development of technology)


Slide 42

Scenario B

Inclusive DevelopmentCoevolution Instead of Revolution


Slide 43

Scenario B | Storyboard

Until 2030 the global GDP has increased by 2,5% annually, as wellas the air travel demand, which increased 4,5% a year.

The increase of political instability and the continuing high threat ofcyber-attacks, have lead to an overall higher demand in security andreliability for automated systems. Only the best systems, in terms ofsafety and reliability, are introduced.

As politics are focused on other topics (due to political instability),automation technologies are marginally regulated by legalframeworks, what leads to few standards in this sector. Only securityrelevant processes have high requirements.


Slide 44


Therewith, due to the high market demand physical and ICTautomation technologies have been improved continuously andintroduced stepwise as mature technologies. They are broadly usedin all phases of the journey and can be found in almost all majorairports around the world in the form of (semi-) automated systems,working with a high reliability comparative to the level of non-automated systems in 2016 and a increased economic efficiency.Examples for automated systems: fully automated security check,baggage drop off, immigration/emigration.

To address customer demands, existing MSPs have startedcollaborating on a large scale by offering integrated D2Dtransportation services. Enabled by bilateral sharing of high qualitydata between collaborating MSPs, a customer can book his journeyfrom D2D through a single portal and then experience thetransportation services of the different MSPs as one product.


Slide 45


Therewith, due to the high market demand physical and ICTautomation technologies have been improved continuously andintroduced stepwise as mature technologies. They are broadly usedin all phases of the journey and can be found in almost all majorairports around the world in the form of (semi-) automated systems,working with a high reliability comparative to the level of non-automated systems in 2016 and a increased economic efficiency.Examples for automated systems: fully automated security check,baggage drop off, immigration/emigration.

To address customer demands, existing MSPs have startedcollaborating on a large scale by offering integrated D2Dtransportation services. Enabled by bilateral sharing of high qualitydata between collaborating MSPs, a customer can book his journeyfrom D2D through a single portal and then experience thetransportation services of the different MSPs as one product.


Slide 46


Quality of access to airports has been enhanced in terms of travelduration, comfort and individualization: Automated technologies areperforming most of the tasks previously done by passengers duringtheir travel. Therefore, passengers have more time and can enjoycustomer tailored services along the journey for example.

The traffic load along the passenger processes has not greatlychanged: Automation has improved efficiency and process timesleading to higher airport capacities, however passenger numbershave risen simultaneously, so that the overall reduction in D2D traveltime has been moderate. A case example for this can be thefollowing: A passenger can check in his baggage in the autonomousvehicle driving him to his terminal and leave it there, and then pick itup again once he has reached his final journey destination. Thuswaiting times for baggage drop off and pick up are avoided,increasing the overall throughput capacity of the airport.


Slide 47

Scenario B | StoryboardIn many fields, automation is found in the form of semi-automatedsystems, requiring a human operator in a supervising function. E.g.non-intrusive automated security systems have been introduced,with special checks performed by humans if necessary; Groundhandling is partly automated, with human operators still required forspecial or safety critical tasks.

Since human operators are still a required part of the (semi-)automated system and work safety has improved due to automation(physically demanding tasks are executed by machines), unions havenot opposed the introduction of automation.

New technologies in commercial aviation are introducedincrementally and therefore do not overwhelm the customer. Insteadof introducing revolutionary, immature technologies, the introducedautomatization developments are working faultless and reliable,leading to a high acceptance among passengers.

In this world automation doesn’t revolutionize the way of travellingimmediately but rather slowly and steadily, therefore it doesn’toverwhelm all involved parties (passengers, the market, allstakeholders). Revolution always leads to conflict in certain areas(regulation, passenger acceptance, unions) but a inclusivecoevolution, where human and machine work alongside each othermight result in a plausible and bright scenario for the future ofautomation in commercial aviation.

Slide 48

Scenario B | Core Messages


Development of Air Travel DemandAirport throughput capacity and RPK increase load factor remains unchanged

Expectation Towards Personalized Experience

The passenger of 2030 demands a personalized travel experience

Evolutionary DevelopmentIncremental introduction of customer focused and faultless automatization systems

Development of Collaborative Data Management

High cooperation between MSPs integrated D2D travel

Passenger Acceptance of Automation

High acceptance for semi-automated systems among all passengers

Slide 49

Scenario B | Timeline


2018

Lufthansa offers integrated D2D travel service

2019 2022 2025 2029 2033 2035

BMW start series production of autonomous cars

(Semi-)automated airports show great rise in capacity, increasing profitability while simultaneously lowering landing fees

Japanese government promotes the development of an (semi-)automated airport with research funds

World’s first (semi-) automated airport emerges in Japan

Almost all major airports are (semi-)automated, with automatization being demanded and considered as normal by passengers

Car sharing available in every major city

Slide 50

Scenario B | Travel Chain




• Integrated planning, booking & ticketing

• Due to cooperating MSPs D2D travel products can be booked under one ticket

• Integrated D2D-travel

• Bag pick up robots trolley robots are available in all important airport areas

• Baggage can be “checked-in” inside of autonomous cars

• Fully automated security check with human operator on (only) supervising function

• Personalized travel information through personal electronics

• Info on best paths / routes through the airport, shopping suggestions, time / duration / delay information, info on destination

• Waiting areas are becoming more and more obsolete due to better (i.e. more time-efficient) connections

Slide 51





• Fully automated

• Exact prediction

• Display of boarding times

• Automated busses (controlled by ground / apron controller)

• Human operators still present (on / off loading of aircraft bulk cargo), but assisted by automated technologies (exoskeletons)

• Push back vehicles fully automated (but: push back command issued by human ground/apron controller)

• Highly personalized in-flight entertainment

• Recommendations based on previous travels and on travel destination

Slide 52




Flights


• Baggage delivery in autonomous car to final destination ( integrated D2D)

• Baggage delivery directly to final destination (independent of passenger travel from airport to final destination)

• Customs procedures only automated in countries where shopping data are shared with government agencies (customs)

• Data is gathered actively (questionnaires) and passively(other data / behavior) throughout the travel

• Refueling and replenish of goods only supervised

• Inspection and deicing by drones operated by humans

• Rubbish collecting robot

Slide 53

Scenario B | Stakeholder Analysis | Full Service Carrier

OPPORTUNITIES

S WO T

STRENGTHS

FSC

• Market share






WEAKNESSES






THREATS


• Evolutionary tech development fits inflexible company structures

• Automation is not perceived as cost reduction measurement

• Possibility to cooperate with MSP Extending travel chain

• Choose higher revenues instead of innovations

• Problems to compete with lower prices of LCCs

• Decrease in non-aviation revenues

Slide 54

Scenario B | Stakeholder Analysis | Low Cost Carrier

OPPORTUNITIES

S WO T

STRENGTHS

LCC






WEAKNESSES




• Image issues




THREATS


• Blurred lines between FSC and LCC encourages LCC to acquire FSCs

• Long-haul flights become attractive to LCCs

• Higher process & cost efficiency

• FSC can achieve similar cost efficiency

• High cooperation between MSP and FSC is not offered to LCC

• Passengers expect highly personalized services

Slide 55

Scenario B | Stakeholder Analysis | HUB Airport

OPPORTUNITIES

S WO T

STRENGTHS

HUB








WEAKNESSES







THREATS


• New business models for Airport

• Gradual implementation of technologies is possible

• Through the use of semi-automatization expectations of inhomogeneous passenger group can be met

• Introduction of new technologies can be more expensive due to lack of standardization

• Risk of unused / empty infrastructures

Slide 56

Scenario B | Stakeholder Analysis | “Secondary” Airport

OPPORTUNITIES

S WO T

STRENGTHS

2ND




WEAKNESSES








• Highly seasonal

THREATS


• High acceptance between passengers

• Predictable passenger load and distribution

• Evolutionary progress in technology constant development

• Higher investments in technology to stay competitive

• High sophisticated customer expectations

• Risk of unused / empty infrastructures


Slide 57

Scenario C

Security FirstAutomation in Aviation in a Hesitant World & Turbulent

Times


Slide 58

Scenario C | Storyboard

Multilateral co-operations between Western nations become weaker.At the same time, an increasing number of threats and thereforeinsecurities hinder the establishment of strong multinationalpartnerships, while existing contracts are being broken up. Thisresults in a “reduced European Union” existing with its coremembers only. This leads to heavily fluctuating exchange rates andhigh risks and volatility on the financial markets. Moreover, after theUSA leaves the NATO due to an increasing distrust in militarycollaboration, multiple other nations follow this incident. As a result,Russia is able to establish stronger bonds under pressure with itsneighboring countries and new partners, including the USA in thesecond row as well.

In the Middle East a new alliance, called "Middle EasternLeague"(M.E.L) is founded by the UAE, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Qatar,Bahrain and several other Arabian countries. One part of the contractregulates freedom of trade and travel between its contract partners,preferring M.E.L. states while reducing foreign trade and transport.Meanwhile the World Bank estimates the worldwide economicalgrowth to less than 2% for the upcoming 20 years. The passenger airtraffic may increase by 4,5% due to high global population growth.


Slide 59


While the trust between nations decreases, a rising number of cyberterrorist hacker attacks and threats affects the national security ofmany countries. Moreover, a successful threat by, so calledhacktivists against AT&T diminishes public faith in American IT,automated and intelligent systems. The occurrence is presented bymedia coverage in an exaggerating negative way. Those incidentsmake security to the key of all interest for all new strategic programsat ICAO and for all other regulations in commercial aviation. Newspecial security guidelines for automation are established in everypossible working field. Most of the existing technologies are not ableto comply with those new standards. Therefore only high-standardand expensive technologies can succeed in the market and will bedeveloped by nearly every single country or union on their own.


Slide 60


Most of those new revolutionary technologies in automation can notbe implemented due to a lack of public faith. Passengers tend torefuse physical automated systems in comfort areas and sometimessecurity areas as well because of negative media coverage aboutformer accidents. As an future projection example: After theintroduction of fully automated “robo-taxis” at the Frankfurt airport,there has just been a slack demand and therefore those systemscould not be integrated in most of the other travel chains which areconnected to commercial aviation ground infrastructures. At thesame time, there are upcoming problems with the quality of accessat big airports. Strong growth of metropolitan areas result in hightraffic jams especially during peak hours. Automated systems couldsolve those problems but besides the strict regulations theinvestment costs are too high.

Although people try to avoid physical automated systems, most stillbuy and use latest mobile devices, such as smartphones and tabletswith AI and other revolutionary technologies. ICT stays an integralpart of a passenger’s life and social media is further established asthe most popular communication tool. In general ICT users don´tclaim about commercial data sharing if search algorithms andsoftware tools are running automated in the background.


Slide 61


At Munich Airport an implementation of a new automated servicegoes completely wrong: A university research project introduced anapplication for smartphones to replace physical signs and airportservice staff for guidance through airport terminals. The app hasbecome a commercially successful business model which is sold toother international airports as well after a short period of timebecause unions couldn’t block the app introduction due to differentlegal frameworks in different countries. One day, there has been acomplete system hack. The flight booking system broke down aswell because of billions of faked terminal-gate search app-requests.As a result Munich Airport and all the other participating airportsremove the app and its support and return back to former terminalservice concepts which cost a multiple.


Slide 62


The low time efficiency of most commercial aviation services andtherefore additional waiting times in queues and traffic jams lead tounpredictable travelling comfort for passengers. Moreover there is alack of incentives for collaboration between different mobility serviceproviders due to a strict legal framework. Contracts are barelynegotiable, due to new and harder job safety rules. Furthermorehigh security standards make it hard for new business partnersentering the market or establishing international businesscollaborations.

To improve the work conditions inside airports, American andGerman unions fight for the implementation of semi-automatedsystems for the airport security without reducing staff and workplacesafety and support as well e.g. with exoskeletons. In most of themodern countries it is difficult to hire young staff for simple processand production work. Moreover it is not allowed to hire immigrantsfrom foreign countries for those kinds of job. Most American airportsare under pressure to introduce a cost intensive mixture of direct andindirect airport security methods. Because of new national U.S.-security standards which have to be fulfilled by the connectedinternational airports as well the amount of incoming and outgoingU.S.-flights has to be reduced.


Slide 63


In Europe, some airports introduce new ICT technologies in theirairport information systems to enable real-time information betweenemployees achieving a more responsible and agile ICT-system. Thisresults in a higher workplace safety and improves the economicefficiency of nearly all of the concerning systems. The genericstructure of those systems allows the implementation at most of themajor airports which have to sponsor the costs unwillingly. Unions inGermany encourage the introduction of airport information systemsin order to achieve a higher level of workplace security and safety. Inmodern international airports exoskeletons and comparabletechnologies are being used as a standard, such as in new openedairports in Istanbul, the Middle East and East Asia.

Slide 64

Scenario C | Core Messages


Political Stability & Security SituationNATO dissolves, EU & the € struggle, Arabian countries strengthen multilateral cooperation, Russia strengthens & increases USA cooperation

Cyber Attack Threats on Automated Systems

Ongoing attacks force economy and politics to national regulation without international compatibility

Passenger Acceptance & Economic Efficiency

Low passenger acceptance & strict legal frameworks slower market penetration & too high in investment costs for automatization

Workplace Safety, Airport Security & Position of Unions

Automated Systems are implemented in background processes and in non-public areas

Security Key InterestICAO & other regulations put security as key interest for all new strategic progams

Slide 65

Scenario C | Timeline


2016

EU and the Euro currency struggle. Moreover, the UAE form a stronger multilateral cooperation with Oman, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other Arabian countries

2017 2020 2022 2025 2030 2035

Unions fight for automation technologies that support employees; there are hardly chances to hire young or immigrant persons

Most of the automation technologies are too high in investment costs; problems with traffic jams, access to airports and passenger processes are increasing

Opening of the world‘s largest airport in Dubai; moderate increase of air travel (4,5%) and sizes of airline alliances.

Unions fight for automation technologies that support employees. There are hardly chances to hire young or immigrant persons.

Lower air traffic but also no economical growth (<2% in 20 years & this year nearly 0%).; several governments are forced to pass new legal frameworks due to higher and securer automation but also cost pressure

Political changes in the USA and Europe; we have the big first data hack (German Telekom).

Slide 66

Scenario C | Travel Chain




• Personalized marketing through cookies

• Protection service for personal data

• Hidden automation without contact with customers

• Automated systems are only in contact with staff

• Information system for passengers (data collection)

• Warning systems for dangerous loads

• Data trading formats for customer data exchange / sales

• Customer profiling for understanding processes within airport

• Autonomous customer transport vehicle for people with limited mobility, but often unused because of trust issues

Slide 67





• Autonomous customer transport vehicle for people with limited mobility

• Less automation less trust issues by passengers

• Information systems for employees are a common auxiliary, sometimes with unreliable hardware

• Autonomous vehicle for people with limited mobility

• Exoskeletons help staff and aim for better workplace efficiency

• Information systems are generated for each airport individually

• No obvious automation

• Single information systems and real-time handling of data possible

• No worldwide standards

Slide 68




Flights


• Baggage scanning systems and early-warning systems for dangerous loads

• Information system for incoming passengers

• Support of custom officers handling in unsecure situations

• No obvious automation

• Automation systems are not reliable enough

• Certain happenings lead to wrong investments

• Staff is supported by exoskeletons, but technology can’t replace special machinery or staff

• Information systems (if they are used) get bigger, better, and more reliable

• Every automation system means disproportinally high investment costs

Slide 69

Scenario C | Stakeholder Analysis | Full Service Carrier

OPPORTUNITIES

S WO T

STRENGTHS

FSC

• Market share






WEAKNESSES






THREATS


• Able to meet security regulations of hub processes

• Able to introduce automated background systems with new, standard-conform, reliable & secure ICT technology

• Able to use personalized advertisement for additional revenue

• Current flight plans might have to change due to more border controls

• Heavy increase in D2D travel times in comparison to alternatives

• Image loss after successful cyber attacks is higher for FSCs in comparison to LCCs

Slide 70

Scenario C | Stakeholder Analysis | Low Cost Carrier

OPPORTUNITIES

S WO T

STRENGTHS

LCC






WEAKNESSES




• Image issues




THREATS


• New business model around a more seamless travel chain

• Customer shift from FSC to LCC due to lower automation

• New routes due to new local networks

• Route network diminished and / or difficult to negotiate new routes

• Service providers are failing due to cyber attacks

• Greater possibility of employee union membership

• Cost risk due to high security standards

Slide 71

Scenario C | Stakeholder Analysis | HUB Airport

OPPORTUNITIES

S WO T

STRENGTHS

HUB








WEAKNESSES







THREATS


• Implementing of automated security technologies in a higher degree

• Financial support of automated assisted systems by the (regional) state e.g. for disabled or elderly workers

• Investment abilities higher compared to other airports

• Lower ability to manage higher passenger throughput (without automation)

• Cost intensive implementation of legal framework in automation

• Customer acceptance

and satisfaction

• Increasing bureaucracy

• Loss of turnover due to stricter passenger processes

Slide 72

Scenario C | Stakeholder Analysis | “Secondary” Airport

OPPORTUNITIES

S WO T

STRENGTHS

2ND




WEAKNESSES








• Highly seasonal

THREATS


• Consistent security standards at every airport

• Synergy effects

• More national flights

• Critical infrastructure to the airport

• High investments due to security risks

• Strong unions

• Customer acceptance and satisfaction


Slide 73

SynthesisSynthesis of Scenario Results

Slide 74


Synthesis | Scenario Overview

To give a brief overview, the factors that decisively influenceautomation to drive it into a direction within the three scenarios.Therefore these factors can be seen as the points in which the threescenarios differ the most. For Example, the Revolutionarytechnologies with a high market penetration of scenario ‘Golden Agesof Automation’ can only be achieved with extremely strong growth ofAir traffic demand coupled with a ministry supporting automation,which is not present in the scenarios ‘Inclusive Development’ or‘Security First’. In contrary, Politics, Regulations and a comparativelyslow growth in Air traffic demand is what hinders automation tospread in the Security first scenario.

Another key factor that sets the rails for either one of the threescenarios is passenger acceptance, which is strongly tied with thereliability of the automated system. The low passenger Acceptance isanother reason why technologies, though highly advanced (more thanin scenario Inclusive Dev.), ultimately fail to penetrate the market. Inscenario ‘Inclusive Development’ the evolutionary and inclusivedevelopment of automation leads to a passenger acceptance, that iseven higher than in scenario ‘Golden Ages of Automation’ becausethe technology doesn’t overwhelm the passenger. These six factorsresult in, or are at least closely tied with, previously mentioned factors.

BC

A

Slide 75



Inclusive Development Security First


INCRE-ASING

DECRE-ASING

MIXED / SQ.

Stable in most regions & ministries for automation

Politics & regulations do not hinder automation

High standards for new technology slow down market penetration

Strong growth

5.5% p.a.

Moderate growth

4.5% p.a.

Slow growth

<4.5% p.a.

Revolutionary technology with high market penetration

Evolutionary technology with high market penetration

Revolutionary technology with low market penetration

Politics & Regulations

Air Traffic

Demand

Degree of Automation

Slide 76



Inclusive Development Security First


INCRE-ASING

DECRE-ASING

MIXED / SQ.

Machine certification confirms operating reliability of 99.65%

Machine certification confirms operating reliability of 99.65%

Reliability is low because of cyber attacks

Strong among younger generations; low among older generations

Passengers are included in stepwise development

Low acceptance due to low reliability

High efficiency through economies of scale

High passenger demand but only stepwise market introduction

Low reliability, low passenger acceptance and high regulations

Reliability

Passenger

Acceptance

Economic Efficiency

Slide 77


Synthesis | It’s a Matter of Perspective

If technological innovations are beneficial always depends on astakeholder’s perspective, which varies in each scenario.

Example: Fast pace development of technology in scenario A wouldmake it vary hard for regional airports to compete. Full marketpenetration of baggage carrying robots at international airports wouldbe rather negative. As it would entail high investment costs withoutadditional revenue.

The following three slides show in detail how stakeholder perspectiveson technological innovations might vary. As an example passengerexperience is compared to advantages for airlines. Both perspectivesare driven by different factors: advantages for airlines are ratherrationally driven while passenger experiences are more emotional.

If an innovation is perceived as positive by most stakeholders, strongmarket penetration is likely to happen, as these interest groups will bepushing automation (upper right square). If a technology is perceivedby major stakeholders as rather negative it can be assumed thatmarket penetration will be difficult or even impossible to achieveunder given circumstances (lower right square, especially alltechnologies below black curve).

ADVANTAGES TO AIRLINE

&PASSENGER EXPERIENCE

Slide 78


Synthesis | It’s a Matter of Perspective

Passenger Experience driven by:

• Emotions

• Acceptance

• Time efficiency

• Joy of use

• First use barriers

• Cost advantages

Advantages for Airlines driven by:

• Rationality

• Cost advantages

• Optimized processes

• Marketing

C

AutonomousTransport for people with limited mobility

B

ABig Data for

personalization

B A

CC

Autonomous Cars

A

B

PASSENGER EXPERIENCE

AD

VA

NTA

GE

S

TO

AIR

LIN

E

Slide 79


Synthesis | Automation Will Come- but When, Where and how Much?

Human

manually

executes task

Human

executes task

Human is operator

Human actively monitors the system

Human is available in critical situations

Human is not in the loop

No system present

Supportive system information

System executes task

System operates and executes

System executes standard operations independently

System operates independently and handles all situations

Fully manualManual completion

Semi-automated process

Active supervisory

Passive supervisory

Fully automated

DEGREE OF AUTOMATION

SY

ST

EM

TA

SK

SM

AN

UA

L T

AS

KS

ABC CA

Slide 80


Synthesis | Will Automation be Hidden from the Passenger?

nonvisible

VISIBLENON-VISIBLE

KNOWN

UNKNOWN

baggage-claim

video surveillance

continuous biometric scanning

ground support vehicles non-humanoid service robots

video tracking

data acquisition

baggage carrying robotsexoskeletons

boarding gates

Q

Q

Q

Q

A

B

C

Status Quo



Security First

A BC

B

A

A

A B

CC A

B

A

A B

Slide 81


Synthesis | Tendencies in Different Scenarios

VISIBLENON-VISIBLE

KNOWN

UNKNOWN

SCENARIO BHigh user acceptance leads to visible and known applications of evolutionary automation

SCENARIO CDistrust paired with low user acceptance results in hidden automation: surveillance and security dominate the applications

SCENARIO AAutomation finds application in every aspect of commercial air travel. Politics pave the way for revolutionary technologies

Slide 82


Synthesis | Business Applications

Seamless Travel Chain

Blurring of FSC

and LCC Business Models

Many mobility service providersemerge to cooperate with airlinesand airports to offer morepersonalized services and betterpassenger travel experiences.

Full-Service Carriers and Low-Cost Carriers converge: FSC canincrease cost efficiency andtherefore reduce their priceswhereas LCC can offer morepersonalized services and expandto new customer segments.

Highly Valuable

Data

Automation needs and generatesdata. Analytics of passenger datacan be of high value to specificstakeholders, e.g. analyzingpassenger flows throughoutairports for future airportplanning.

Slide 83


Synthesis | Take Home Messages

Less a business model but more a marketing strategy could beabusing the uncertainty around the ecologic efficiency of automation.Whether automation will be ecologically efficient or not is uncertain.This can be used for marketing purposes, depicting highly automatedAirports as ecologically efficient and therefore ‘green’ can result in alot of positive publicity. Only an elaborate and expensive study mightreveal if automation is “truly green”.

Data generation will be important in many different areas(personalized user experience, personalized commercials etc.) andtherefore Airlines and Airports will be eager to extract as muchinformation as possible from the customer. In some cases thepassenger will happily provide that information, but in some cases hewon’t know that information is being extracted, e.g. while using apersonal flight assistance app. Passengers will give away morepersonal data than ever before, whether they like it or not.!

The emotional aspect, that the passenger as a stakeholder brings tothe table can’t be overlooked. In none of the three scenarios there'seven a chance that cognitive, humanoid robots will replace a humanin a supervising function. Further, no Humanoid AI will replace ahuman cabin crew member during flight because of their utmostimportance as a mediator in conflicts.

The vast amount of opportunities like increase in efficiency,workplace safety etc. that automation can offer for commercialaviation makes it an inevitability. Definitely not every part of the D2Dtravel chain will be automated, but some parts of it like the baggagedrop will be automated for sure.

Since automation will be coming stakeholders will have to innovateto dominate other competitors. Especially in a fast developingindustry that is coupled to informatics, mechanics and electronics,like automation it is detrimental to stay ahead of the yourcompetitors. Even small improvements like in scenario inclusivedevelopment can generate a lot of success since the demand will behigh.

Slide 84


Synthesis | Ecology

Uncertain of role of ecology

Slide 85


Synthesis | Big Data

Passengers will give away more personal data than ever before!

High value of data generation

Slide 86


Synthesis | Human Role

Premium services and emotional tasks (Passenger sickness, clarifying arguments) will remain personal services conducted by the cabin crew.

Slide 87


Synthesis | Turning Back?

In certain areas of commercial aviation automation is inevitable.

There’s no turning back!

Slide 88


Synthesis | Innovators

Innovators will be winning


Slide 89

Conclusions & Outlook

Slide 90


Conclusions & Outlook | Uncertain Future

The future for automation in commercial aviation is uncertain…

…but our scenarios can help to improve the understanding of developments and impacts

…but we can generate strategies for each of the scenarios to make reasonable decisions

Slide 91


Conclusions & Outlook | Automation Impact

Will automation be successful and have a positive impact on the aviation market?

Yes! However, …

... different stakeholders might have different reasons to implement automated systems and will see different implications on their business models.

... the reliability (incl. cyber security) and economic efficiency of the systems will be key.

... the reachable degree of automation will be dependent of many different factors (while ICT is an enabler in most scenarios, physical automation is lagging behind).

... customers will become sensible, if they have to pay with their personal data.

Slide 92


Conclusions & Outlook | Outlook

Scenario planning helps to expand the range of possibilities we can see, while keeping us from drifting into unbridled science fiction.

Political Stability & Security situation

Development of ICT

Development of Air Travel Demand

Personalized Experience

Passenger Acceptance

Cyber Attack Threats

Economic Efficiency

Legal Framework

Demographic Development

Market Structure

Slide 92

Slide 93


Thank you for your Attention!

Slide 94


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