Upload
eara
View
33
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Comments on R&D Satellite Account: Strengths and proposals for improvement. Bureau of Economic Analysis Conference Measurement Issues and the R&D Satellite Account Methodology December 13, 2006 Carol Corrado, Federal Reserve Board. Focus of Remarks. 2006/7 R&D Satellite Account - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
Comments on R&D Satellite Account:
Strengths and proposals for improvement
Bureau of Economic Analysis ConferenceMeasurement Issues and the R&D Satellite Account
MethodologyDecember 13, 2006
Carol Corrado, Federal Reserve Board
Focus of Remarks
2006/7 R&D Satellite Account
2012 NIPAs Future R&D
(R&D treated as Satellite Account Investment) (eg., RoRs, spillovers)
Conceptual issues
• Ownership and valuation issues.
• Sectoral (vs. industry) issues.
• Defining the scope of R&D investment.– Currently is NSF’s surveyed R&D. – Should other investments in new
product/process development also be included? YES! (but subject for another day)
The ownership of R&D investment
• Funder vs. Performer? Tricky….But I think BEA has this right. Implications:– Treat publicly funded R&D like a bridge or other
infrastructure. – Treat private R&D like a machine-tool or software.
• Public/ private R&D have a different “character” (basic vs. applied or up vs. down stream)– Public R&D is long-lived/valuable.– Within NIPAs => Depreciation rates for private vs
public R&D should be different (eg. via “character”).
Public knowledge stock More important than size?
Measurement of R&D investment (current dollar value)
• BEA is using cost.– The BEA document states (p23), "...there is currently
no standard measure of R&D output..." in defense of using costs.
– Measuring R&D investment as the cost of R&D is consistent with the NIPAs.
• How would you measure machine-tool investment? By the cost of the machine-tool. …. software investment, etc.
• This approach doesn't depend upon whether the firm produces the R&D itself or purchases it on the market.
• BEA has chosen no gestation lag for R&D.
Price indexes for R&D
• Economic theory suggests firms will invest in an asset up to the point that cost = PDV of the stream of income expected to be produced by the asset.
– Suggests an overall business product price is a reasonable proxy price index for private R&D.
– As the marketplace for intellectual property develops, prices of existing IP assets will be able to be recorded (and perhaps used to infer prices for “new” private R&D).
• To maintain consistency with the treatment of bridges, an input-cost approach can be used to deflate publicly R&D.
Issues needing further study
• NSF time series is affected by its exclusion of R&D by small firms (unincorporated business).– Potentially a big deal.
• Internationalization of R&D. – US R&D by foreign-owned MNCs is US investment
(and part of the US productive capital stock). – Vice versa for US MNC R&D spending abroad—
potentially large to the extent “D” locates near market.• Suggests consolidated I&P account for MNC R&D would be
of considerable interest –what impact on saving?– FOFAs and balance sheets vs. production accounts.
VC Investments as proxy…
Time-series/Quarterly estimates
• Time-series integrity of annual series– Documentation on treatment of breaks in NSF data, eg. 1994– Dispose the so-called R&D/software overlap
• NSF instructs respondents to exclude own-account software. • But, BEA may be counting software R&D as own-account software.
• Historical quarterly estimates– How well does (VC-adjusted) NSF spending relate to
employment and wages of scientists and engineers?
• Going forward: Need appropriate instrument for NIPAs– Redesign of NSF survey underway (included a lot of outreach—
great effort!)– Quarterly indicator survey (Census)? Does BEA have opinion?
Summary• Keep decisions consistent with NIPAs (or change NIPAs)
– Measure R&D investment as cost.– Use price index for business product (or product of 5-10 basic technology
groups) to deflate private R&D.– Differentiate R&D depreciation by character to highlight key distinction
between private and public R&D.
• Need to consider:– Role of venture capital (corporate/noncorporate)– Integration of BEA MNC data (domestic/r-o-w)
• Watch the IP marketplace as it develops (price data)
• Continue to work with the NSF and Census so that survey addresses the needs of the NIPAs.
• Why wait until 2012?