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Mainstreaming Migration,Development and Remittancesin the LDC Post-Brussels Plan of ActionMichael ClemensUNITAR June 17, 2010

A migrant-centered approachEnhance data collectionMaximize benefits of mobilityFacilitate remittancesLeverage diasporas contributionsInstitutional reforms

2. Maximize benefits of mobility

In HaitiSame person in USLiving standard

Poverty line $10/day100 Haitians who arent poor

100 Haitians who arent poor

100 Indians who arent poor

Poverty headcount reductionKagera, 1991-2004

Stayed in community4%Neighboring community11%Elsewhere in Kagera13%Left Kagera23%Everyone8%

Poverty headcount reductionKagera, 1991-2004

Stayed in community4%Neighboring community11%Elsewhere in Kagera13%Left Kagera23%Everyone8%

Gallup World Poll 2009: Ideally, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move permanently to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country?

Sierra Leone65%Guyana60%Congo (Kinshasa)59%Ghana58%Nigeria58%Liberia58%Zimbabwe57%Dominican Rep.57%Senegal56%Uganda51%Malawi51%Haiti51%El Salvador49%Cameroon49%Ethiopia46%

What causes loss of professionals?Graduates are not in Malawi because they are emigrating.

Prices are high because merchants are raising them.

USA

USABrazil

PhilippinesUSABrazil

PhilippinesKenyaUSABrazil

3. Facilitate remittances

IOM Bangladesh Household Remittance Survey 2009 Cost: $3,150Annual earnings: $3,690(117%)Remitted: $2,287(73%)

4. Leverage diasporas contributions

5. Institutional reforms

10,000 university students in 6 African countries

Professional advancement Remuneration Personal safety The future of my children Quality upkeep of public amenities A level of fair taxation

429 top high school graduates from Tonga and PNG

Health care Childrens education Salary Safety and security Quality of colleagues

mclemens@cgdev.org

100 Mexicans who arent poor

LanguageFamily abandonment rate

Great farm drain

Patriotic commerce rateFemale labor force participation

Industrial revolution

Tariff rateBrain drainSkill flow

Map the following into the reports areas of action:

Magnitude of gains how to leverageRemittancesGreat that theres no so much emphasisTerrible economics, cost reduction etc.Remittances return on investment, insuranceBest way to increase remittances: more movementSkilled workersHas great portions, but at the end of the day gets causation wrongProviding information to migrantsHow about getting information from migrants, about the fundamental causes of their departure?Too sanguine on political effects? GMU studyWhat does migrant-centered approach really mean? Hosts letting more people move.What govt policy clearly lets people reach aspirations? Opening is the clearest. Poll data.If you want better opportunities for the poor, facilitate more movement.

30,00020,00010,000040,000South Africa 1994Income per capita, US$/year

Blacks 1993Blacks 2005Bhorat, Westhuizen, and Goga (2007), University of Cape TownSouth Africa, Comprehensive Welfare Index

South Africa, Comprehensive Welfare IndexBhorat, Westhuizen, and Goga (2007), University of Cape TownWhites 1993Whites2005

30,00020,00010,000040,000South Africa 1994World 2009Income per capita, US$/year

Insurance claimRemittances help replace lost HH income1%0.6%When HH income fallsRemittances riseFilipinos overseas

*brain draincauses*How does migration lift people out of poverty? This is a snapshot of the Cliff at the Border. Lant and I calculate that a typical Haitian worker a man in his 30s with a high school education or less, earns about six times the living standard just by moving to the US.

This makes that movement a spectacularly profitable investment, vastly more profitable than any other investment available to the common Haitian.

This is where we run smack into a political problem: The US has a complex set of institutions designed to prevent Haitians from moving, prevent this investment from being made. Voters control those institutions, and most US voters either see themselves as being harmed by Haitians who experience this gain, or are just indifferent to it.

The fundamental policy problem is that the people who decide whether or not this investment is possible get little to none of its benefits.

*Lowest US poverty line is $29/day

Mexico: 43% in USIndia: 27% in USHaiti: 82% in US*51 states (+DC) of USA27 states (+DF) of Brazil74 provinces of Philippines69 districts of Kenya*brain draincauses*brain draincauses*brain draincauses**Epanechnikov kernel, bandwidth one year. Vertical axis shows fraction of total density. Arrivals years are restricted to post-1960 and are for a sample of 127 physicians trained in Nigeriacompared with 1,156 physicians trained in any African countryresident in the US or Canada in 2006. The first period of military rule in Nigeria lasted from 1966 to 1979 under a succession of four generals, though there was substantial political liberalization in 1978. Shehu Shagari was elected president in 1979 and led a civilian government until his overthrow in 1983 by Muhammadu Buhari. Starting then, aside from three months in 1993, generals Buhari, Babangida, and Abacha ran the country as dictators until Abachas death in 1998. Elections were held the same year, and a civilian (Obasanjo) took power in 1999.*Epanechnikov kernel, bandwidth one year. Vertical axis shows fraction of total density. Arrivals years are restricted to post-1960 and are for a sample of 127 physicians trained in Nigeriacompared with 1,156 physicians trained in any African countryresident in the US or Canada in 2006. The first period of military rule in Nigeria lasted from 1966 to 1979 under a succession of four generals, though there was substantial political liberalization in 1978. Shehu Shagari was elected president in 1979 and led a civilian government until his overthrow in 1983 by Muhammadu Buhari. Starting then, aside from three months in 1993, generals Buhari, Babangida, and Abacha ran the country as dictators until Abachas death in 1998. Elections were held the same year, and a civilian (Obasanjo) took power in 1999.SA 1996 Census: 34.7 million black or colored, 4.4 million white

*Income, assets, access to public services

In the first case, weights were derived for a Comprehensive Welfare Index. Three categoriesof variables were used in the construction of the Comprehensive Welfare Index, namelyhousehold characteristics (or public assets), private household assets and household income.The household services variables are type of dwelling (formal, informal or traditional); typeof roof (brick, thatch, corrugated, tile, asbestos or other); type of wall material (low or highquality); source of water (piped, public, surface and borehole); source of energy for lighting(electricity, paraffin, or candle) and type of toilet ( flush/chemical, pit, pit-VIP, bucket or none).The household assets included in the factor analysis are telecommunications (cellular aswell as land line), vehicle, radio, television and the mean level of education of all adults inthe household. The variable reflecting household income is real per capita household incomefrom wages and social grants. With the exception of household income and mean level ofeducation, which are continuous variables, all other household services and assets variablesare binary with a value of 1 (if the household has access to it) or 0 (if the household does nothave access to it).

*SA 1996 Census: 34.7 million black or colored, 4.4 million white

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