Commentson

Climate Change and Security in the Arab RegionBy Dr. Elsayed Sabry Nasr

Questions I would like to raise in relation to the themes of the paper

• Is the Arab region likely to be adversely affected ? Worse than other regions ? What elements of CC are particularly important in the region ?

• Is CC threatening food security ?

• Water scarcity: The management of water resources in transnational river basins. Are international conflicts likely?

• Does CC lead to refugee flows, threatening security ?

Rainfall and temperature change – from IPCC 4AR

Sea Level Rise and the Nile Delta (Dasgupta et al, 2009)

CC and food security

• Potential for rainfed agriculture may be reduced

• Increased competition, potentially provoking conflict, for increasingly scarce water resources for irrigation

• Unsustainable use of groundwater resources

• Excessively expensive irrigation on the basis of desalinized water

• ’Virtual water’ import as a solution (Allan, 2002)

Water management in transnational river basins

Examples:

• Euphrates

• The Nile

• The Jordan

• Will CC lead to international conflict, or will regional collaboration and integration prevail?

Climate refugees

• Are claims of CC being the cause of current migrant flows correct ?

• Are projections of large future flows realistic ?