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Combining Multi-Agent System modeling
and
System Dynamics modeling
Ernst Gebetsroither -
Austrian Institute of Technology
Outline
Different methodological approaches
System Dynamics approach
Multi-agent Systems modeling approach
Multi-paradigm simulation
Why?
History
Different combination types
Software tools
MASGISmo a java based multi-paradigm simulation platform
Still open questions and difficulties2
Source: Gilbert & Troitzsch, 1999
History of Simulation in the Social Sciences
System Dynamics (SD) modeling
Some “facts” for SD I
Top Down approach (macro simulation)
Equation Based Modeling (EBM)
Numerical solution of differential equations
Randomness normally not essential
Why macro simulation?
Missing data and information for micro simulation
• Missing information about rules and self-organization processes on
micro scales
Policy maker’s decisions are on an aggregate level (Top Down)
Often better analysed macro phenomena
Technical reasons (calculation time…)
...
Some “facts” for SD II
„Father“ of SD
Jay. W. Forrester from MIT (60ies)
This “shapes” the approach
Features
Quantitative simulation models
State functions, material-flows and information-flows are in the centre of
interest
Normally no detailed spatial relation is considered
Delays and feedback structure are very important (the system structure
shapes the behaviour)
Computer as tool necessary
Modular model building
Special modelling software was developed
• In the 60ies Dynamo (since 90ies Vensim, Stella, Powersim powerful
specialized SD software)
Lower evaluation effort; less data effort to parameterize
System Dynamics modeling procedure I
Verbal description („word model“)
of dynamical processes
Developing Causal loop diagram
Population
birth death
+
+
+
-
Stock-Flow diagram (SFD)
Populationbirths deaths
System Dynamics modeling procedure II
Multi-Agent Systems modeling
Some “facts” for MAS I
Bottom Up approach (micro simulation)
Rule Based Modeling
Only rarely differential equations are used; more often If-Then rules to
describe the Agents’ action
Randomness very essential
Why micro simulation?
More appropriate to simulate social behavior (Bottom Up)
More appropriate to analyze self-organization processes
Sometimes individual behavior is easier to analyze
Missing information about equations on macro scales
Structure is adaptive, emergence is an important characteristics
...
Some “facts” for MAS II
No unique root of MAS
even the definition what agents are is very heterogenious
or what an agent has to have
Features
Quantitative simulation models
State charts, UML, object oriented programming language
Agents’ communication is in the centre of interest
Spatial relation is often important
•To be at the “right” time at the “right” place in the “right” shape
Computer as tool necessary
Modular model building
Special modelling software was developed
• SWARM, RePast, Netlogo, Anylogic
Higher evaluation effort; higher data effort for parameterization
Multi-paradigm Simulation: Why? I
The different approaches are not appropriate for all purposes and objects.
Weakness of the individual approaches can be reduced within the combination
Results of Top Down decisions are often influenced by Bottom Up reactions (self-
organization)
Appropriate tools are available
Multi-paradigm Simulation: Why? II
Modeling method should be determined by the WHY and WHAT not by the HOW!
Source: Figure 1 from Lorenz and Jost, 2006
"Due to familiarisation and (early) association with a specific
modelling paradigm modellers tend overlook other paradigms or
simply are not able to adequately differentiate and apply alternative
approaches." (Lorenz & Jost, 2006)
Multi-paradigm Simulation: History
First important steps arround the year 2001
Important early works:
Scholl 2001:Agent-based and system dynamics modeling: A call for cross study and joint research. In the Proceedings of
34th Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS-34), Vol. 3, Maui, Hawaii.
Schieritz and Größler 2003:Schieritz, N., & Größler, A. (2003). Emergent Structures in Supply Chains A study Integrating Agent-Based
and System Dynamics Modeling. Proceedings of the 36th Hawaii International Conference on System
Sciences - 2003, 9.
Borshchev and Filippov, 2004:Borshchev, A., & Filippov, A. (2004). From System Dynamics and Discrete Event to Practical Agent Based
Modeling: Reasons, Techniques,The 22nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 25
- 29, 2004, Oxford, England.
No general framework how to combine the approaches exists
A first orientational framework for multi-paradigm
modeling
Source: Figure 3 from Lorenz and Jost, 2006
Different combination types
16
Comparison of combination types I
The unidirectional combination:
simplest possibility
step by step calculation, no influence of different time and space
concepts
can be modelled like two models running independently, only input data
exchange has to be managed
verification and validation is easier
The bidirectional combination:
most complex engagement of MAS and SD
with feedback emerg many consequences/difficulties
sensitive to the time-step because each system influences the other
not clear which is first, MAS or SD (circular references possible)
verification and validation because of the feedback to SD very
complicated (input from MAS to SD due to stochastic processes
different for each run) 17
Comparison of combination types II
The SD included in Agents combination:
for some properties such as time-step and data handling simpler than
bidirectional combination
simulation time/effort increases rapidly
differential equation on the individual level often more difficult to assume
than on the aggregate level
software demands very high
verification and evaluation only possible for the combination, no
individual models
18
Multi-paradigm Simulation: Simulation tools
Several tools have been developed during the last 5 -10 years.
Not all are very powerful/helpful!
A detailed description/comparison how to use can be found in:
Ernst Gebetsroither 2010: Combining Multi-Agent Systems Modelling and System Dynamics
Modelling in theory and practice. Dissertation at the Alpen-Adria Universität Klagenfurt,
Fakultät für Technische Wissenschaften, 1-152. (send me an e-mail if you are interested).
Simulation tools comparison
MASGISmo EIDE AnyLogic NetLogo RePastSymphony
open source planned yes no yes yes
advanced SD analysis yes no no no no
graphical building blocksonly for SD
yes only for EI
(MAS)yes yes
only for MAS, not
for SD
operating systemsWindows & Mac
independent
(JAVA needed)
independent (JAVA
needed)
independent (JAVA
needed)
independent
(JAVA needed)
GIS integration yes no yes, not in all
versions
Java extensions can
be integrated
Java extensions
can be integrated
GIS analysis yes no ? ? ?
Stand alone SD (for a built
MAS-SD model)yes yes no no no
advanced SD analysis (Causal
Tracing loop analysis...)yes no no no no
advanced MAS analysisno
yes but no spatial
referenceyes yes yes
MASGISmo developed during the years 2004 - 2010
A JAVA-programmed multi-paradigm simulation platform
MASGISmo a MAS SD Modeling platform
Multi-paradigm Agent-based System Dynamics GIS modelling platform
MASGISmo program-GUI developed with support of a FH Student - Dominic
Piegsa (2005-2006) at AIT and extended within several projects
MASGISmo 2006
MASGISmo 2008
MASGISmo: General connection scheme
Characteristics of MASGISmo I
Combination of:
RepastJ for MAS
Connection to SD Software Vensim via dynamic link libraries
• Was already developed 2004 as„GIS-SD connection“ (Vensim and
ARCMap)
Programmed in JAVA
Import and Export of GIS maps as ASCII grids
Programmed special GIS features as:
• zooming in and out, panning, layer selection, map-legends,
changing element colour and element value,
• a MiniView window (to show the zooming position)
• moving layers up and down do make them visible
• setting layers as visible or invisible
• retrieving information about each layer and its elements (e.g. about
the different land use areas)
Characteristics of MASGISmo II
Interactive features:
one-click adding of new elements or deleting of elements (streets,
buildings, settlements, …)
changing parameter values with sliders and input fields
popping up message boxes to show users important system parameter
and retrieve new input values, etc.
importing and exporting of new layers (maps such as ASCII grids)
saving and deleting layers
Analyse Tools:
snapshots at individual time steps of the whole area or of a selected
area,
parameter charts and tables,
automatically captured movies of the simulation,
automatically captured changes of parameters (made by the user)
dynamic calculation of differences between different time periods
MASGISmo: Advantages and Disadvantages I
Advantages:
fully programmed in Java
Java source code can be changed as well as the REPAST libraries as
they are open source
uses specialised SD software (Vensim)
the GUI, the graphical user interface can be changed according to the
customer’s needs
GIS visualisation and analysis features are integrated and can be
extended according to the model’s/user’s needs
GIS files can be imported/ exported as ASCII-grids
Eclipse framework can be used for programming and debugging
(verification)
Java programmed extensions can be easily integrated via jar libraries
29
MASGISmo: Advantages and Disadvantages II
Disadvantages:
comprehensive documentation is not available, Java API documentation
exists.
tutorials not available (currently under construction)
not often used or improved
MAS and SD parts are developed by different groups (Vensim and
Repast developers)
lack of community which uses the platform
no professional support by developers
30
Examples for multi-paradigm simulation
GIS based water resource management of the Dead Sea
region
(EU-project)Ernst Gebetsroither, Wolfgang Loibl, Rudolf Orthofer
Dead Sea project overview
Main problem: The Dead Sea water level is shrinking and
causing many problems (> 1m/yr) http://systemsresearch.ac.at/projects/dead_sea/
Combination of Top down and Bottom up approaches
(unidirectional)
System Dynamics approach (SD) used for modelling overall water
availability and price
MAS used to model the agent’s reaction
to SD input spatial changes
Used MAS-SD-GIS
VENSIM-SD model for the overall water flows
MASGISmo Model
Simulation results within different scenarios
DPP dead sea surface area
800
720
640
560
480
400
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 44
44
3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 32 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
Time (year)
DPP dead sea surface area : Unilateral Action SC1 km²1 1 1 1 1 1 1DPP dead sea surface area : Current Trend SC2 km²2 2 2 2 2 2DPP dead sea surface area : Demand Managed Basin SC3 km²3 3 3 3 3DPP dead sea surface area : Supply-driven Basin SC4 km²4 4 4 4 4 4
Land use change Simulation
Possible impacts of climate change to land use in an Austrian alpine
region
Provison project future.scape:mountain.scape
Simulation of impacts to forest and settlements
Land use change Simulation
© systems research
© systems research
© systems research
Still open questions and difficulties for multi-
paradigm simulations
A more unified “method” for building Multi-agent systems
Complex simulation analysis
MAS models have the same problem because of randomness
Lacking good tools
Model-Evaluation
Verification and Validation effort high
Effort depends on combination type
• A first heuristic is presented in Gebetsroither, 2010
Model sharing
Use & Understand the models
44
MASGISmo in action
45
Start
Video
http://systemsresearch.ac.at/exchange/gebetsroither/Tutorial_von_MASGIS/
Welcome.html
Acknowledgments:
Prof. Günther Ossimitz (University of Klagenfurt)
and
Prof. Peter Fleissner (TU Vienna)
Thanks for your attentions!
More Information can be found in den Conference paper
and in:
Ernst Gebetsroither 2010: Combining Multi-Agent Systems
Modelling and System Dynamics Modelling in theory and practice.
Dissertation at the Alpen-Adria Universität Klagenfurt, Fakultät für
Technische Wissenschaften, 1-152. (send me an e-mail if you are
interested).
46
References
Borshchev, A.,& Filippov, A. (2004). From System Dynamics and Discrete Event to Practical Agent Based
Modeling: Reasons, Techniques,The 22nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 25 - 29,
2004, Oxford, England.
Ernst Gebetsroither (2010). Combining Multi-Agent Systems Modelling and System Dynamics Modelling in theory
and practice. Dissertation at the Alpen-Adria Universität Klagenfurt, Fakultät für Technische Wissenschaften, 1-
152.
Gilbert, N. & Troitzsch, K. G. (1999) Simulation for the Social Scientist. Open University Press, London.
Lorenz, T. & Jost, A. (2006). Towards an orientation-framework for multiparadigm modeling. Proceedings of the
24th international conference of the System Dynamics Society.
Schieritz, N., & Größler, A. (2003). Emergent Structures in Supply Chains A study Integrating Agent-Based and
System Dynamics Modeling. Proceedings of the 36th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences - 2003,
9.
Scholl (2001). Agent-based and system dynamics modeling: A call for cross study and joint research. In the
Proceedings of 34th Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS-34), Vol. 3, Maui,
Hawaii.
47