Combining Climate Science and Social Science to Develop Decision Support Tools for Corn Producers and Advisors

Linda Stalker Prokopy, PhD

U2U Project Director, Associate Professor

Purdue University 1

U.S. CORN BELT

• Nearly one-third of global supply

• Over $50B to US economy

Agriculture and Climate Change

• Midwestern crop production highly dependent on favorable temperatures and appropriate precipitation patterns

• Climate variability limits season-to-season predictability and lessens ability to maintain viable farm operations

• Producers need enhanced information for decision making

U2U Vision

• Transform existing climate information into usable knowledge for agricultural decision making

• Give farmers the resources and training to more effectively manage variable climate conditions

• Increase Extension capacity to address agro-climate needs

More and farms in a changing climate

U2U Team

State climatologists

Crop modelers

Agronomists

Economists

Social scientists

RCC staff

NOAA staff

Objectives – Five Year Plan (2011-2016)

1. Examine impacts of past/future climate on crop productivity and implications for farm management

2. Understand stakeholder needs

3. Design decision support tools and prepare training materials and delivery approaches

4. Pilot test tools, methods and outreach

5. Disseminate across 12 state region

Not clear yet what resources will be needed!

Key Issues

Examine the financial, production, and environmental outcomes of short-term management decisions and long-term investment planning under different climate scenarios.

Impact/interaction of weather and climate on: • Spatial and temporal variability of yields

• Nitrogen management

• Fieldwork opportunities

• Planting date

• End of season crop dry-down rates

• Cost effectiveness of irrigation and tiling

Current Work

• Model the impact of climate and farm management on crop productivity and profits – Using past and future climate scenarios

• Understand beliefs and concerns about climate change and willingness to use climate information – Surveys and focus groups

Models and Data Stakeholder Input Decision

Support Tools

Crop Modeling and Data Analysis

• Develop an ensemble of crop models on a 4-km grid, Midwest

– DSSAT, Hybrid-Maize, ISAM

– Range of agronomic outcomes for various climate scenarios (past & future)

• Impact of climate and management on productivity and profits

– Agroclimatic trends analysis (1900-2011)

– Regional ENSO analysis

– NASS ‘field work days’ climatology – trends, patterns, future scenarios

– Effects of crop mix, climate, etc. on capital investment decisions (case studies)

Objective 1: What are the contributions of anomalous weather to crop variability and implications for future management options?

Climate-Based Decision Calendar for Corn

• Uniquely visualizes time of year and lead-time of climate forecasts relevant to ag decisions

– Recognizes that climate forecasts can affect

• Long term investment decisions if the environment is changing

• Short term management decisions if uncertainty is increasing

Takle et al., in prep.

Climate-based decision

calendar for corn

Social Science Tasks

1. Producer and advisor climate needs assessment surveys

2. Focus groups with stakeholders

3. Network analysis (flow of climate information through agricultural communities)

Objective 2: Understand the use and value of climate information in agricultural decision making, determine effective dissemination methods

Producer Survey • CS-CAP partnership

• Mail survey of +19,000 farmers

• 22 HUC6 watersheds, 60% of US corn production

• Data joined to NASS Ag Census

Advisor Survey • Web-based survey of 8,000+ advisors

– All advisors in pilot states, Extension in 12 states

• Crop consultants, Extension, bankers/lawyers, agro-business, state and federal, crop associations, etc.

Climate Needs Assessment Surveys

Survey Question Topics

• Type and timing of farm management strategies

• Influence and use of weather/climate information

• Risk management strategies, roles, responsibilities

• Influential information sources

• Climate change concerns and beliefs

Influence of Weather/Climate Info

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Historical weather trends

Weather data for the past 12

months

Current weather

conditions

1-7 day forecasts

8-14 day outlooks

Monthly or seasonal outlooks

Annual or longer term

outlooks

Per

cen

t

Percent who said that each type of weather/climate information had a "moderate" or "strong" influence on their decisions/advice

Producers

Advisors

Use of Decision Support Resources

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Per

cen

t

Percent who said they use the following weather-related decision-support resources

Producers

Advisors

For all decisions, 13% - 19% of advisors said they would use weather/climate info if

the information was better

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Timing of nitrogen

Planting/harvest schedule

Conservation practices

IPM

Seeding rate

Fall tillage

Seed purchases

Crop insurance

Crop rotations and field assignments

Cover crops

Agricultural drainage systems

Irrigation systems

Fertilizer purchases

Pesticide purchases

Fuel purchases for irrigation

Propane purchases

Percent

Percent of Advisors who consider weather/climate information when giving advice on...

Willingness to Use Climate Information

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Producers Advisors

Agree

Uncertain

Disagree

Producer Question: I am willing to use seasonal climate forecasts

to help me make decisions about agricultural practices

Advisor Question: I would like to provide advice based on climate

forecasts

Confidence in Ability to Use Climate Info

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Producers Advisors

Agree

Uncertain

Disagree

Producer Question: I am confident in my ability to apply weather forecasts

and information in my crop related decisions

Advisor Question: I am confident in my ability to apply weather forecasts

and information in my crop related advice

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Strong Influence

Moderate Influence

Slight Influence

No Influence

No contact

Please indicate how influential the following groups and individuals are when you make decisions about agricultural practices and strategies (producer survey). (16 options)

Family, chemical dealers, and seed dealers are most influential Influence of Extension is mixed

Advisors – Trusted Info Sources

How much do you trust or distrust the following agencies, organizations, and groups as sources of information about climate change and its potential impacts? (15 options)

Distrust Neither trust nor

distrust Trust

1. University Extension 4.2% 14.8% 81.1%

2. Scientists 10.9% 19.6% 69.6% 3. Farm groups 11.7% 43.1% 45.2% 4. Family and friends 7.1% 49.7% 43.2%

Distrust Neither trust nor

distrust Trust

1. The mainstream news media 64.9% 26.9% 8.2%

2. Online social media, such as blogs, Twitter, etc.

64.4% 31.8% 3.8%

3. Radio talk show hosts 63.1% 31.6% 5.2% 4. Environmental organizations 55.7% 26.3% 18%

Mo

st T

ruste

d

Le

ast T

ruste

d

“There is increasing discussion about climate change and its potential impacts. Please select the statement that best reflects your beliefs about climate change.”

Climate change is occurring, and it is caused mostly

by human activities

Climate change is occurring, and it is caused equally

by natural changes in the environment and human

activities

Climate change is occurring, and it is caused mostly

by natural changes in the environment

There is not sufficient evidence to know with certainty

whether climate change is occurring or not

Climate change is not occurring

Producers

8%

33%

25%

31%

4%

Advisors

12.6%

37%

24.9%

23.3%

2.3%

Concern about climate-related risks

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Increased flooding

Longer droughts

Increased weeds

Increased insects

More crop disease

More frequent extreme

rains

More saturated

soils

Increased heat stress

Increased nutrient

loss

Increased soil erosion

Per

cen

t

Percent "Concerned" or "Very Concerned" about potential problems

Producers

Advisors

Modeling results suggest long-term trend of

increasing precipitation and a net reduction of

drought-related risk for growers.

Beliefs about Climate Change Adaptation

Producer and Advisor Question: It is important for farmers to adapt to

climate change to ensure the long-term success of U.S. agriculture

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Producers Advisors

Agree

Uncertain

Disagree

Uncertainty in Responding to Climate Change

Producer Question: There’s too much uncertainty about the impacts of

climate change to justify changing my agricultural practices and strategies

Advisor Question: There’s too much uncertainty about the impacts of

climate change to justify advising others to change their agricultural

practices and strategies

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Producers Advisors

Agree

Uncertain

Disagree

Results Summary

• Challenges: – Demonstrate utility of weather/climate info

– Develop info that fits perceived needs and that is usable

• Opportunities: – Concern about climate-related risks

– Willingness to use weather/climate info

– Some confidence in ability to apply weather/climate info

• Need to recognize and respond to differences in climate change beliefs in our tools, training, and communication – Climate change beliefs influence perceived climate risks, willingness to

use climate info, risk management, trusted info sources, etc.

Focus Groups

• Surveys alone are not enough! – Input on survey results

– Explore more complex questions

– Listen to their concerns and needs

– Test newly developed resources

• Producers and advisors in pilot states – Ongoing co-production groups in IN, NE

• Farmers, private advisors, public advisors

– One-time sessions

• Kickoff in Jan/Feb 2013 – Pilot session held in July 2012

Pilot Focus Group Results

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Nu

mb

er o

f V

ote

s

Decision Tool/Topic

Voting Results for Decision Tools/Topics of Greatest Interest

Pilot Focus Group Results

Other Findings:

• Farmers have difficulty finding weather/climate, soil, agronomic, marketing, and other “consumer” data they need. – Interested in a website that consolidates links into a single place

– Not interested in receiving more email

• Farmers had a strong interest in global and regional conditions and events, in additional to local information.

– Specifically mentioned Brazil, China, and Russia

• Prefer information presented in tables, maps, and limited text

What’s Next?

• Continue developing and testing models (ongoing)

– Impact of tile drainage, irrigation use, crop variety, and nitrogen application on yields under climate scenarios

• Stakeholder engagement (ongoing)

– Focus groups, Native American producer survey, network analysis

• Tool prototypes (year 3-4)

• Training materials (year 3-4)

• Program evaluation (year 4)

• Regional expansion workshop (year 5)

www.AgClimate4U.org

Thank you!

Michigan State University: Gopal Alagarswamy, Jeff Andresen, Jim Hilker

South Dakota State University: Dennis Todey

University of Illinois: Jim Angel, Beth Hall, Steve Hilberg, Atul Jain

University of Michigan: Maria Lemos, Yun-Jia Lo

University of Minnesota: Tom Bartholomay, Whitney Meredith

University of Missouri: Pat Guinan, Ray Massey

University of Nebraska-Lincoln: Juliana Dai, Tonya Haigh, Cody Knutson, Tapan Pathak, Martha Shulski

University of Wisconsin: Tom Blewett, Rebecca Power, John Kriva

This project is supported by Agriculture and Food Research Initiative Competitive Grant no. 2011-68002-30220 from the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture.

Purdue University: Linda Prokopy (Lead), Corinne Alexander, Larry Biehl, Otto Doering, Bruce Erickson, Ani Elias, Sajeeve E.M., Patrick Freeland, Ben Gramig, Olivia Kellner, Xing Liu, Amber Mase, Dev Niyogi, Paul Preckel, Carol Song, Melissa Widhalm, Lan Zhao

Iowa State University: Roger Elmore, Chad Hart, Jean McGuire, Lois Wright Morton, Gene Takle, Adam Wilke