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Colorado River BasinWater Supply and Demand Study
NIDIS updateFebruary 24, 2011Boulder, CO
Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study
• Two-year, $2 million study cost shared by Reclamation and the Basin States• Assess future water supply and demand imbalance• Assess risks to all basin resources• Investigate options and strategies to mitigate impacts
• A transparent, collaborative study with input from all stakeholders
• Email:[email protected]• Website:http://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/programs/ crbstudy.html
•Study Area– Colorado River Basin and those
adjacent areas of the Basin States that receive Colorado River water
•Cost-Share Partners– Arizona Department of Water Resources– (California) Six Agency Committee– Colorado Water Conservation Boar– New Mexico Interstate Stream
Commission– Southern Nevada Water Authority– Utah Division of Water Resources– Wyoming State Engineer’s Office– Reclamation (LC and UC Regions)
Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study
Annual Colorado River Water Supply & Use
Study Outreach
Colorado River Basin Water Supply &
Demand Study
HydropowerWestern, CREDA. others Ecosystem Demands
NGO collaborative.others
Endangered SpeciesFWS, others
OtherGeneral public, other
interested stakeholder groups
Native American Tribes and Communities
Lower Basin, Upper Basin
Water DeliveriesWater Purveyors (agriculture,
M&I use)
RecreationNPS, Concessionaires,
others
Study Phases and Tasks
Phase 1:Water Supply
Phase 2:Water Demand
Assessment
Phase 3:System Reliability
Analysis
Phase 4:Development & Evaluation of Opportunities
1.1 – Select Methods to
Estimate Current Supply
1.2 – Select Methods to Project
Future Supply
1.3 – Conduct Assessment of Current Supply
1.4 – Conduct Assessment of Future Supply
2.1 – Select Methods to Estimate Current
Demand
2.2 – Select Methods to Project Future
Demand
2.3 – Conduct Assessment of
Current Demand
2.4 – Conduct Assessment of Future Demand
3.1 – Identify Reliability Metrics
3.2 – Estimate Baseline System
Reliability
3.3 – Project Future System Reliability
4.1 – Develop Opportunities
4.2 – Evaluate and Refine
Opportunities
4.3 – Finalize Opportunities
3.3.5-3.3.8 – Project Future Reliability with
Opportunities
Formulate Approach to Include
Uncertainty
Develop Future
Supply and Demand
Scenarios
Draft Water Supply Storyline Themes
• Observed (O)– Theme: Historic instrumental period for streamflow represents suitable
trends and variability for characterizing the future• Direct Paleo (DP)
– Theme: Paleoclimate period offers a more expansive understanding of streamflow variability that may be more representative of future variability
• Paleo Conditioned (PC)– Theme: Inter-annual variability of paleo reconstructions is believed to be
more representative of future variability, but streamflow magnitudes are believed to best represented by the instrumental period
• Climate Projection (CP)– Theme: Future climate and streamflow variability is represented through
global climate models and simulated hydrologic conditions driven by the results of these models
Global ClimateModels
Methodology for Incorporating Climate Projections in Future Supply
Emission Scenarios
(3 scenarios: A2, A1b, B1)
Bias Correction & Spatial Downscaling
(112 downscaled projections)
Hydrologic Modeling
(112 downscaled projections)
Systems Modeling
(112 traces)
16 GCMs
102 Traces 1244 Traces 1000 Traces 112 TracesObserved Mean = 15002 Direct Paleo Mean = 14675 Paleo Conditioned Mean= 14937 Climate Projections Mean = 13588
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Current “Best” Estimate Natural Flow Conditions at Lees Ferry
2011 – 2060 Period Mean Annual Flows
Box represents 25th – 75th percentile, whiskers represent min and max, and triangle represents mean of all traces
DRAFT – SUBJECT TO CHANGE
1988 – 2007 period mean
Draft Demand Storyline Themes
• “A”: Current Trends– Theme: Growth, development patterns, and institutions continue along
recent trends
• “B”: Economic Slowdown – Theme: Low growth with emphasis on economic efficiency
• “C”: Expansive Growth – Theme: Economic resurgence driven by population growth and energy
needs• C1 branch to slower technology adoption• C2 branch to rapid technology adoption and slight increase in social values
• “D”: Enhanced Environment and Healthy Economy – Theme: Expanded environmental awareness and stewardship with
growing economy• D1 branch to current growth trends• D2 branch to higher growth and technology
Integration of Supply and Demand Scenarios
Recent Trends
Supply Scenarios(multiple realizations for each scenario)
Demand Scenarios
Current Trends
PR
C
A
B
D
O
PC
CP
Climate indexing for demands
Colorado River Simulation System (CRSS)
• Comprehensive model of the Colorado River Basin
• Developed by Reclamation (early 1970s) and implemented in RiverWareTM (1996)
• Primary tool for analyzing future river and reservoir conditions in planning context (NEPA EIS)
• A projection model, not a predictive model• Excellent for comparative analysis• Gives a range of potential future system
conditions (e.g., reservoir elevations, releases, energy generation)
• Simulates on a monthly timestep over decades
• Operating policy is represented by “rules” that drive the simulation and mimic how the system operates
• Metrics are measures that indicate the ability of the system to meet the needs of Basin resources
• Metrics will be used to quantify the impacts to Basin resources from future supply and demand imbalances
System Reliability Metrics
Metrics Resource Categories
Depletions Electrical Power
Resources Water Quality Flood Control Recreational
Resources Ecological
Resources
Study Phases and Tasks
Phase 1:Water Supply
Phase 2:Water Demand
Assessment
Phase 3:System Reliability
Analysis
Phase 4:Development & Evaluation of Opportunities
1.1 – Select Methods to
Estimate Current Supply
1.2 – Select Methods to Project
Future Supply
1.3 – Conduct Assessment of Current Supply
1.4 – Conduct Assessment of Future Supply
2.1 – Select Methods to Estimate Current
Demand
2.2 – Select Methods to Project Future
Demand
2.3 – Conduct Assessment of
Current Demand
2.4 – Conduct Assessment of Future Demand
3.1 – Identify Reliability Metrics
3.2 – Estimate Baseline System
Reliability
3.3 – Project Future System Reliability
4.1 – Develop Opportunities
4.2 – Evaluate and Refine
Opportunities
4.3 – Finalize Opportunities
3.3.5-3.3.8 – Project Future Reliability with
Opportunities
Formulate Approach to Include
Uncertainty
Develop Future
Supply and Demand
Scenarios
Colorado River BasinWater Supply and Demand Study
http://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/programs/crbstudy.html
NIDIS updateFebruary 24, 2011Boulder, CO
Extra Slides
Demographics & Land Use
Economics & Technology
Soci
al &
Insti
tutio
nal
D2
A
D1
C1B
C2
Graphical Depiction of Driving Forces Categories and Scenarios
Today
Categorization and Selected Driving Forces for Storyline Development
General Driving Force Category
Key CRBS Driving Forces Identified in Survey
Natural Systems (Hydroclimate)
Changes in streamflow variability and trends [1] Changes in climate variability and trends (e.g. temperature,
precipitation, etc.) [2]Demographics & Land Use
Changes in population and distribution [4] Changes in agricultural land use (e.g. irrigated agricultural areas,
crop mixes, etc.) [5]Technology & Economics Changes in agricultural water use efficiency [8]
Changes in municipal and industrial water use efficiency [9] Changes in water needs for energy generation (e.g. solar, oil shale,
thermal, nuclear, etc.) [12]Social & Governance Changes in institutional and regulatory conditions (e.g. laws,
regulations, etc.) [10] Changes in flow-dependent ecosystem needs for ESA-listed
species [13] Changes in other flow-dependent ecosystem needs [14] Changes in social values affecting water use [15] Changes in water availability due to tribal water use and
settlement of tribal water rights claims [17]