Colorado Community College System...May 31, 2007 · Bill Gates is Britney Spears. In America today, Britney Spears is Britney Spears,. . . and that is our problem. Friedman, Thomas

© 2006 McREL To request permission to reprint, contact McREL atinfo.mcrel.org. 1

Envisioning the Future of Community College in Colorado

Colorado Community College SystemMay 31, 2007

Laura LefkowitsVice President, Policy and Planning Services

Mid-continent Research for Education and Learning (McREL)

2

The future is not predictable

The problem with predictions. . .


3


“X rays will prove to be a hoax.”

~ Lord Kelvin President of the Royal Society,

1833

4


“Everything that can be invented, has been invented.”

~ Charles H. Duell, Commissioner of

U.S. Patents Office1898


5


“Flight by machines heavier than air is unpractical and insignificant, if not utterly impossible.”

~ Simon Newcomb, astronomer1902

6


“It is an idle dream to imagine that . . . automobiles will take the place of railways in the long distance movement of . . . passengers.”

~ American Road Congress, 1903


7


“Airplanes will never be useful in battle against a fleet of ships.”

Franklin Roosevelt,Asst. Secretary of the Navy

1915

8


“Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?”

~ Harry Warner Warner Brothers

Pictures 1927

Crowd in line for premiere of The Jazz Singer (1927).


9


“There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be available.”

~ Albert Einstein, 1932

10


“I think there is a world market for about five computers.”

~ Thomas J. Watson Chairman of IBM

1943


11


“The odds are now that the United States will not be able to honor the 1970 manned-lunar-landing date set by Mr. Kennedy.”

~ New Scientist, April 30, 1964

12


“By 2000, machines will be producing so much that everyone in the U.S. will, in effect, be independently wealthy.”

~ Time, 1966


13


“There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home.”

~ Ken Olsen, President Digital Equipment Corp.

1977

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15


16


17

Say … What’s a mountain goat

doing way up here in a cloud bank?

18

So, if we can’t predict, what’s the point?


19

Preparing for the future

• The next 10 years represents a unique period of accelerating change both in pace and scope.

• This decade is one of potential discontinuities & convergence.

• Leaders have a responsibility to prepare their organizations and systems for whatever the future holds.

• The future is not predictable, but can be anticipated.

20

McREL’s Assumptions

• We must get the most possible out of our current educational system.

• U.S. schools and colleges, as currently designed, are not likely to meet the demands of a global economy.

• We must prepare for inevitable changes in the educational system.


21

Assumptions

The Year is 2020. . . What are your assumptions. . .

About the state of the world?About the state of American education?About your own life?

Exploring the External World


GLOBALIZATION

24

Living in a flat world…

“Globalization 3.0 is shrinking the world from a size small to a size tiny and flattening the playing field at the same time. . .The thing that gives (globalization 3.0) its unique character is the newfound power for individuals to collaborate and compete globally.

»Thomas Friedman. 2005. The World is Flat: A Brief History of the 21st Century.


25

The Ten Flatteners

#1. 11/9/89 When the walls came down and the windows went up

#2. 8/9/95 When Netscape went public

#3. Work Flow Software. Let’s do lunch: Have your application talk to my application

#4. Open-Sourcing. Self-organizing collaborative communities

#5. Outsourcing. Y2K

26

The Ten Flatteners

#6. Offshoring. Running with gazelles, eating with lions.

#7. Supply-Chaining. Eating Sushi in Arkansas

#8. Insourcing. What the guys in funny brown shorts are really doing.

#9. In-forming. Google, Yahoo!, MSN Web search

#10. The Steroids. Digital, mobile, personal, and virtual

Source: Friedman, T. 2005. The World is Flat.


27

Geopolitics

• Some predict China may become world’s new superpower

• Growing economy, entrepreneurship

• Can change world order (unintentionally perhaps)– Upset trading rules, intellectual property agreements,

security arrangements

Source: Paul Bracken, Yale University, author, Fire in the East:The Rise of Asian Military Power and the Second Nuclear Age

28

China & India gaining ground


29

Pop. projections for selected countries

927.8

1,285.201,402.30

620.7

1,033.40

1,246.40

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1975 2001 2015

Pop.

(m

illio

ns)

India

China

Source: United Nations Development Programme

30

Pop. projections for selected countries

220.2

288

329.7

111.5127.3 127.2

78.7 82.3 82.5

59.1

100.5

119.6134.2

144.9133.4

54.9

117.8

161.7

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1975 2001 2015

Pop.

(mill

ions

)

Nigeria

Mexico

U.S.

Japan

Russia

Germany

Source: United Nations Development Programme


31

Pervasive Insecurity• Revival of Muslim identity will support spread

of radical Islamic ideology in Middle East, Western Europe, Southeast & Central Asia

• Developments in chemical & biological weapons pose a substantial threat.

• Post-World War II creations such as UN & international financial institutions risk becoming obsolete unless they consider growing power of developing world.

• More countries may seek nuclear weapons out of self-defense Source: Mapping the Global Future: A Report of the National Intelligence

Council's 2020 Project. December 2004

32

The Global Challenge ofIntellectual Capital

Source: Ray Kurzweil, 2005


33



34




35


Percent (%) of Bachelor’s Degrees that are awarded in engineering:

China: 60%Taiwan: 41%South Korea 33%U.S.: 31%

Source: Friedman, The World is Flat, 2005

36


2003 Bachelor’s Degrees in Science & Engineering

Asia 1,200,000Europe 830,000

U.S. 400,000

Source: Science and Engineering Indicators, National Science Board


37


English CornersA story about Shanghai

As told by Dr. Bruce Fuchs, NIH

Mandarin CornersHow many have you seen in

Colorado Springs lately?

38

Another American Century?

Dominant world political, military, and economic powers:

Country CenturyHolland 16th

Spain 17th

France 18th

England 19th

United States 20th

U.S. or China? 21st


39

What’s the Problem?

In China today, Bill Gates is Britney Spears.

In America today,

Britney Spears is Britney Spears,. . . and that is our problem.

Friedman, Thomas. 2005. The World is Flat.

40

U.S. NeedsInvestments in math and science education

Unfortunately, federal funding for research in

physical and mathematical sciences and engineering,

as a share of GDP, actually declined by 37% between

1970 and 2004 (according to an NSF taskforce). At a

time when we need to be doubling our investments in

basic research to overcome the ambition and

education gaps, we are actually cutting that funding.

The World is Flat, Thomas Friedman. 2005


41

U.S. Students Today Need21st Century Skills

““The future workforce is here, and it is The future workforce is here, and it is illill--prepared.prepared.””

More than 40 percent of surveyed employers say incoming high schMore than 40 percent of surveyed employers say incoming high school ool graduates hired are deficiently prepared for the entrygraduates hired are deficiently prepared for the entry--level jobs they fill. level jobs they fill.

““This report card makes it clear that as competitive pressures frThis report card makes it clear that as competitive pressures from om globalization continue to mount, Americaglobalization continue to mount, America’’s youth must be more s youth must be more intensely prepared for employment if reality is going to match intensely prepared for employment if reality is going to match expectations.expectations.””

Source: Are they really ready to work? Partnership for 21Source: Are they really ready to work? Partnership for 21stst Century Skills; www.21srcenturyskills.orgCentury Skills; www.21srcenturyskills.org

TECHNOLOGY


43

The Digital World

Moore’s Law:

• Computer processing power, per price of computers, will increase by a factor of 1.5 every year.

• Today, you can do 50 times as much computation as you could a decade ago, and 2,500 times as much as you could two decades ago.

Source: Hall, J. S. 2005. Nanofuture

44

Examples of Moore’s law

$.02$300 - $40016, 384 megabytes

2012

$9.40$1,000 -$1,300

128 megabytes

2002

$1,500 -$2,000

$3,000 -$4,000

2 megabytes1992

Cost per megabyte

Total CostCapacityYear

Willard Daggett, International Center for Leadership in Education, 2003


45

Adoption of new technologies

To achieve 25% penetration in U.Shomes it took:

35 years for the telephone

26 years for the television

16 years for personal computers

7 years for the internet

3 years for PDAsWillard Daggett, International Center for Leadership in Education, 2003

46

Smart Personal Object Tech (SPOT)


47

Smart Person Object Tech (SPOT)

48

Translation Goggles

Source: Willard DaggettSource: Willard Daggett



50

Web 2.0: The end of cyberspace

• From on/off connections to 24/7 virtual reality

• From to/from communication to engaged networking

• From seeking information to creating and sharing

content

• From proprietary copyrights to open source licensing

• From Control and Competition to Community and

Collaboration


51

52


53

Living in the Web

• www.youtube.com

• www.podzinger.com

• www.wikipedia.org

• www.amazon.com

• www.vans.com

• www.secondlife.com

54

ComputingComputing

Speed

Storage

Binary Computing



55

ComputingComputing

Speed

Storage

DNA

Quantum

Binary


56


57

What if?

. . . Virtual education delivery mechanisms take the place of traditional classroom-based models in most community colleges?

. . . India’s low-cost, online technology training programs become the market leader for work-based technology training worldwide?

POPULATION


59

“America is becoming a gerontocracy.”

Soon 33% of American electorate willbe over 65 (only 8% under 30)

Source: Dychtwald, Ken. 1999. Age Power: How the 21st Century will be Ruled By the New Old

Aging

60

Average American Life Expectancy

49.251.5

56.459.2

63.668.1 69.9 70.75

73.9 75.476.9

404550

55606570

7580

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Rising life expectancy


61

Source: The Concord Coalition

Aging Boomers

62

Social SecurityDeclining workers per retiree

Source: The Concord Coalition


63

Remember Governor Gloom?

1. Naïve patsies: younger generation not paying attention to politics, so older voters found a way to maintain lifestyles & charge it to next generation

2. Compassionate come-on — “poor elderly”Since 1960, poverty rates cut in half for elderly, doubled for children (US highest of developed nation)

3. Relied on trust. Told younger generation was a “trust”fund for Social Security & Medicare.

Total debt passed onto next generation = $20 tril.

Source: Richard D. Lamm. (2003). The Brave New World of Healthcare.

64

Private sector pension deficits

• GM now has 2.5 retirees on payrolls for every active worker

• Honoring “legacy costs” now adds $1,800 to every vehicle sold

• GM’s unfunded pension: $19.2 billion

Source: Phillip Longman (2004) The Empty Cradle: How Falling Birthrates Threaten World Prosperity and What To Do About It


65

WY

CO

NV

OR

WA

MT

ID

NE

ND

SD

IA

WIMN

MO

AROKAZ

KY

WV

PA

NC

SC

TN

AL

FL

VT

ME

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, compiled by Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com

27 Floridas by 2025 (states where at least 20% of population is elderly

66

Colorado Population Projections 2000-2030

Projected total population increase:

34.7%

Projected increase in the population aged 65 and older:

130%Source: http://www.census.gov/population/projections


67

Population Pyramids of Colorado

Percent of Total Population2000 2030

Source: http://www.census.gov/population/projections/

5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 55 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5

0 - 4 5 - 910 - 1415 - 1920 - 2425 - 2930 - 3435 - 3940 - 4445 - 4950 - 5455 - 5960 - 6465 - 6970 - 7475 - 7980 - 84 85+Male Male FemaleFemale

68

Colorado Population Projections

16.5%9.7%% of population

over age 65

8.46.2Dependency Ratio*

25.3%25.6%% of population

under age 18

5,792,3574,301,261Total Population

Projected to 20302000

Source: Source: www.census.govwww.census.gov/population/projections/population/projections

** Number of youth (under age 20) and elderly (ages 65 and over) fNumber of youth (under age 20) and elderly (ages 65 and over) for every 10 people of working ages.or every 10 people of working ages.


69

Headlines 2020: Could it happen?

The New Divide: “Gray States” vs. “Green States”

Generational warfare heats up between “young” states seeking funding for education & transportation & “elderly”states demanding funding for healthcare & social security

70

Colorado Urban/Rural Disparities

• Trending up in population– North Front Range

– Colorado Springs

• Trending down in population– Central Mountains

– Eastern Plains

– Pueblo


71

Per Capita Personal Income

Colorado = 1,289,808Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Douglas

JeffersonSummitClear Creek

Gilpin

San Juan

Denver

Boulder

Elbert

Washington

ArchuletaLa PlataMontezuma

Rio Grande

MineralAlamosa

HinsdaleSan Miguel

Chaffee

Adams

Arapahoe

Baca

Bent

Broomfield

Cheyenne

ConejosCostilla

Crowley

Custer

Delta

Dolores

Eagle

El Paso

Fremont

Garfield

Grand

Gunnison

Huerfano

Jackson

Kiowa

Kit CarsonLake

Larimer

Las Animas

Lincoln

Logan

Mesa

Moffat

Montrose

Morgan

Otero

Ouray

Park

Phillips

Pitkin

Prowers

Pueblo

Rio Blanco

Routt

Saguache

Sedgwick

Teller

Weld

Yuma

$25,198 to $40,811$21,341 to $25,198$17,344 to $21,341$15,650 to $17,344$10,748to $15,650

Source: Patrick J. Kelly, NCHEMS

72

Dateline: October 17, 2006

Population of the United States hits 300 million

The United States has become a supersize, metro-nation with a fast-growing population, and supersize appetites for housing, land

and resource consumption.Vicky Markham, director of the Center for Environment and Population

Source: U.S. at 300 million; ‘Heaven on earth’ to ‘uncharted territory.’ CNN.com, October 16, 2006

Population Trends


73

• 20M Americans now say they are of mixed “races” or that current census categories don’t apply to them

• 5% of married Americans are mixed-group marriages (up from 3 % in 1980)

• 2/3 of Hispanics who have attended college or have a college degree marry across group lines

• 1/5 of all married Asian women have chosen a spouse of a different race or ethnicity

• In California, nearly 1 in 12 non-Hispanic Whites is marrying an Asian or a Hispanic

Source: Robert Suro. (November 1999). “Mixed doubles - interethnic marriages & marketing strategy . American Demographics.

Multi-ethnic Americans

74

Projected Population Change in CO from 2000 to 2020 by Race/Ethnicity

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Projections

-37,531

-12,000

-82,216

110,303

358,683

14,6604,960 8,759

22,336 16,300

93,662

32,189

96,323 92,075

50,802

17,0357,357

15,764 19,665 14,870

-100,000

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

0-17 18-24 25-44 45-64 65 and Older

White African-American Hispanic Other



75

Colorado’s workforce continues tobecome more racially diverse

76

Headlines 2020: Which is more likely?

Cultural ‘salad days’ over?

More Americans prefer “melting pot”to “tossed salad”metaphor

“Two Americas”50 years after passage of key Civil Rights legislation, many minorities still find themselves living in the “other” America


77

• William Strauss —historian

• Neil Howe —economist

• Authors of Generations, 13th

Gen, MillennialsRising, The Fourth Turning

Generations

78

HeroMillennial generation(b. 1984 - ?)

NomadGeneration X(b. 1961-1984)

ProphetBoom generation(b. 1943-1960)

ArtistSilent generation(b. 1925-1942)

HeroG.I. generation(b. 1901-1924)

ArchetypeLiving generation

Living generational archetypes


79

Birth years: 1901-1924Archetype: HeroExamples:• John Kennedy• Ronald Reagan• Lyndon Johnson• John Wayne• Judy Garland• Walter Cronkite

G.I. Generation (Greatest Generation)

80

• “Good kid” reputation; grew up during rise in universal education

• Endured depression• Defeated Axis powers in WWII• Aimed to do big things:

– Manhattan project– National highway system – Moon landing – Great Society

G.I. Generation characteristics


81

Birth years: 1925-1942Archetype: ArtistExamples:• Colin Powell• John McCain• Elvis Presley• Martin Luther King, Jr.• Woody Allen• Gloria Steinem

Silent generation

82

• “Suffocated” children of the war

• Didn’t want to change the system, wanted to make it better (“helper role”)

• Responsible for civil rights movement

• Married & started families earlier than any generation in history

• Experienced cultural revolution in mid-life

• No Presidents; many chiefs of staff

Silent generation characteristics


83

Birth years: 1943-1960Archetype: ProphetExamples:• Bill & Hillary Clinton• George W. Bush• Newt Gingrich• Steven Spielberg• Jim Morrison• Bill Bennett

Baby boom generation

84

• Dr. Spock babies; Leave it to Beaver childhoods

• Rebelled against G.I. generation “bigger & better”fixation in favor of inner fulfillment

• Arbiters of public values — whether it’s political correctness or “moral majority”

• Waging “culture wars”

• Rise to political power (Clinton, Gingrich) corresponds with increasingly polarized politics

Baby Boomer characteristics


85

86


87

Birth years: 1961-1983Archetype: Nomad

Examples:• Aron Ralston

• Kurt Cobain• Tiger Woods

• Matt Stone & Trey Parker• Chris Rock

• Salma Hayek

Generation X

88

• Born during drop in birth rate, rise in “devil-child” movies, abortions, and divorce

• Latch-key children, told their “rising tide of mediocrity”put Nation at Risk

• Popular culture — from grunge to hip hop — reveals hard edge

• Labeled “slackers” by boomers; they prefer free agency / entrepreneurship over company loyalty

• Attributes: pragmatic, skeptical, tough, resilient

Generation X characteristics


89

Millennials (Generation Y)

Birth years: 1984- ?Archetype: HeroExamples:• Jessica Lynch• Sarah Hughes• Haley Joel Osment• Freddy Adu• Michelle Wie• Charlotte Church

90

Millennial characteristics

• Born as parenting styles became more protective — “baby on board” signs on cars

• Growing up in schools focused on higher standards, character education, cooperative learning, uniforms, and community service

• Team-oriented, “good kid” generation

– Drops in drug abuse, teen pregnancy, crime

• Oldest members of this generation graduated from college in 2005; now entering workforce


91

Millennial characteristics

• The largest generation: 36% of US pop.

– In 2000 ≈100M children & youth (0-22 years)

• Most diverse: 31% minority

• Growing up in challenging times: 60% of teens feel it is harder being a young person today than in parent’s time (up from 35% in 1966)

• 96% say doing well in school is important to their lives

• Some employers & educators have labeled this generation the “entitlement generation”

US DOE, 2003. Students in Today’s Schools

92


93

Digital Natives

Today’s average college grads have spent less than

5,000 hours of their lives reading, but over

10,000 hours playing video games and 20,000

hours watching television.

Digital Natives, Digital Immigrants. Marc Prensky 2001

94

Digital Natives

Today’s digital kids think of information and communications technology (ICT) as something akin to oxygen: they expect it, it’s what they breathe, and it’s how they live.

John Seely-Brown (2004), Learning in the digital age


95

Digital Natives

“Digital Natives”

• parallel process and multi-task

• prefer their graphics before their text

• prefer random access

• function best when networked

• thrive on instant gratification and frequent rewards.

Digital Natives, Digital Immigrants. Marc Prensky 2001

96


97

98

Think-Pair-Share

... How has your own life been shaped by your generation?

... How might Colorado Community Colleges be different when more of the policymakers are members of Generation X and more of the students are Millenials?


ECONOMY

100

Demographics: Key to economic forecasting

• Consumers are 70% of U.S. economy

• Spending habits vary with age

• Much of our spending, especially when we have kids, is non-discretionary – e.g., housing, clothing, food, transportation

• As a result, every product has predictable patterns in who purchases them


101

Age affects spending

Source: Harry S. Dent Foundation

102

The Spending Wave

• At 46.5, Americans reach peak spending years– Non-discretionary (food, clothing, housing)

• Harry S. Dent used “Spending Wave” to predict stock market climb in 1990s

• Dent says current wave started in 1982, will continue until ~ 2009


103

2200000

2700000

3200000

3700000

4200000

4700000

5200000

5700000

1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006 2016 2026 2036 2046

Imm

igra

tion-

Adj

uste

d B

irths

1000

10000

100000

Dow

Adj

uste

d Fo

r Inf

latio

n (L

og S

cale

)

5,000

30,000

Births Lagged For Peak Spending

Dow Adjusted For Inflation

Projected Dow 40,00050,000

Boomer spending drives economy

© 2002 H.S. Dent Foundation

104

Deflationary shakeout

• Market stalls in 2008-2010 as Boomers stop spending and start saving

• Gen-X generation too small to make up for loss in Boomer spending (41M compared to 70M)


105

106

Ripple effects

• Who eats at fast food restaurants?

• Who will purchase Boomer’s buy-up homes?

• Who purchases SUVs?

• What happens to the job market?

• What happens to entitlement & pensions?

• What happens to school funding?

• What will urban areas look like?


107

Boomer Retirement

• 70M Boomers (25% of US pop.) begin turning 65 in 2011

• About 1/3 have saved responsibly and are ready for retirement; other two-thirds are alarmingly unready1

• 42% plan to “cycle” between periods of work & leisure2

• 16% plan to work part-time work2

• 13% plan to start their own business2

• 17% hope to never work for pay again2

Source: 1Department of Labor. Saving For A Lifetime: Advancing Generational Prosperity2Merrill Lynch. (February 2005). The New Retirement Survey.

108

Expanding Life Cycle

Obsolete life concepts:

• Education K through 20

• One career per lifetime

• Retirement at age 65

• “Leisure” from retirement to death

Source: Business Week, October 24, 2005, The Futurist, Nov-Dec 2005


109

Expanding Life Cycle

New life concepts:• Lifelong learning

• Working in “stints”

• Becoming a “portfolio of skills”

• Cycling between work, education, and leisure from birth to death

Source: Glen Heimstra (www.futurist.com)

110

Growth jobs

1. Developing & using technology: especially communications, computing, biotechnology, nanotechnology, energy, and transportation.

2. Responding to fundamental demographic shifts: retraining mid-lifers, caring for the elderly, providing personal services

3. Helping society’s organizations adapt: application of change management skills in the workplace

Source: Glen Hiemstra (www.futurist.com)


111

Source: Occupational Employment Outlook 2004-2014: Colorado Statewide Projections, CDLE

High Growth Occupations in Colorado

112

Colorado’s Economic Opportunities

High market demand and High market demand and revenue in defense/aerospace, revenue in defense/aerospace, technology industries, and technology industries, and computer and storage devices will computer and storage devices will drive growth in Coloradodrive growth in Colorado’’s s manufacturing sector.manufacturing sector.

ManufacturingManufacturing

OpportunitiesOpportunitiesIndustryIndustry

Source: Colorado’s Economic Opportunities: Today, Tomorrow, and the Future. Wobbekind, et. al. 2004. http://www.state.co.us/oed/business-development/IndStudy/FinalReport.pdf


113


While mining has contracted in While mining has contracted in recent years, the industry still has recent years, the industry still has a significant presence in the area. a significant presence in the area. Growth will result largely from Growth will result largely from the development of alternative the development of alternative energy sources.energy sources.

Energy and Energy and EnvironmentalEnvironmental



114


One of ColoradoOne of Colorado’’s main strengths s main strengths is its central location, making it a is its central location, making it a potential hub for air, rail, and potential hub for air, rail, and truck transportation. Growth of truck transportation. Growth of ee--commerce will continue to commerce will continue to increase demand for all modes of increase demand for all modes of cargo transportation.cargo transportation.

TransportationTransportation




115


Colorado has a strong and Colorado has a strong and growing aerospace industry. growing aerospace industry. Defense and homeland security Defense and homeland security related areas offer a major related areas offer a major opportunity for the state.opportunity for the state.

AerospaceAerospace



116


Colorado has long been Colorado has long been recognized as a national recognized as a national telecom hub. New technologies telecom hub. New technologies such as such as WiWi--FiFi, voice, voice--over IP, over IP, and weband web--conferencing could conferencing could drive growth in the industry. drive growth in the industry.

TelecommunicationsTelecommunications




117


Colorado ranks 8Colorado ranks 8thth in the country in the in the country in the number of nanotechnology companies. number of nanotechnology companies. Applications of nanotechnology could Applications of nanotechnology could begin to influence the areas of begin to influence the areas of aerospace/defense, information aerospace/defense, information technology, fuel cells and batteries. technology, fuel cells and batteries. Growth is anticipated to occur primarily Growth is anticipated to occur primarily along the Front Range.along the Front Range.

NanotechnologyNanotechnology



118


As the state population continues to As the state population continues to grow, financial and healthgrow, financial and health--care care services are expected to expand.services are expected to expand.

ServicesServices




119


The homeland security market The homeland security market offers a significant growth offers a significant growth opportunity to Colorado software opportunity to Colorado software developers. developers.

SoftwareSoftware



120


Colorado ranks 5Colorado ranks 5thth in the list of in the list of states Americans dream of visiting. states Americans dream of visiting. Industry segments that offer growth Industry segments that offer growth potential include ecotourism, potential include ecotourism, agritourismagritourism, heritage tourism, and , heritage tourism, and adventure tourism.adventure tourism.

Tourism and Tourism and HospitalityHospitality




121


The state has strong exports of live animals and byproducts, wheat, feed grains, and vegetables.

All-natural and organic food products and the application of biotechnology for energy offer growth potential.

Food and Agriculture

OpportunitiesIndustry


122

What if…

. . . there is a major economic slow down between 2012 and 2022 and community colleges are faced with rising demand for vocational training to help with re-training displaced workers as well as significantly diminished public funding?


COMMUNITY COLLEGES TODAY

124

National Enrollment Growth

Note: Public community colleges and public four-year colleges onlySource: Table 2.2, National Profile of Community Colleges, fourth edition: American Association of Community Colleges


125

CO Higher Ed Enrollment

Source: Final FTE Student Enrollment Report: The Colorado Commission on Higher Education

126

Enrollment in theColorado Community College System

05000

10000150002000025000300003500040000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

<2525-3435-4444-54>55

Enro

llmen

t

Enrollment year

Age

Source: Colorado Higher Education Information and Research, downloaded 4/16/07. http://highered.colorado.gov


127


05000

1000015000200002500030000350004000045000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Female

Male

Enro

lmen

t

Enrollment yearSource: Colorado Higher Education Information and Research, downloaded 4/16/07. http://highered.colorado.gov

128


0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Non-Resident Alien

Am. Indian/Alaskan

Asian or PacificIslanderHispanic

Black, non-Hispanic

White, non-Hispanic

Enro

lmen

t



129

Student Headcount by Race/Ethnicity at Colorado Two-Year Public Institutions

Source: CCHE

130


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

First Year

Non Degree-seekingUndergraduatesSecond Year

Unclassified

Enro

llmen

t



131

Enrollment in the Colorado Community College System

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

First Year

Second Year

Enro

lmen

t


132

Percentage of 18 to 24 Year Olds with Less than a High School Diploma –CO Compared to the Most Educated States (2005)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey

11.9%

14.4%

15.5%

15.8%

15.9%

16.0%

17.1%

17.5%

17.6%

19.1%

19.6%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

North Dakota

Vermont

Connecticut

New Jersey

Massachusetts

Minnesota

Maryland

Virginia

New Hampshire

New York

Colorado



133Source: WICHE – Western Commission for Higher Education

Colorado Public High School Graduates

134

Colorado Public High SchoolGraduates by Race/Ethnicity

Source: WICHE – Western Commission for Higher Education


135

Gaps in Education Levels

136

Projected Education Levels


137

Change in the Percent of 25 to 64 Year Olds with College Degrees by Race/Ethnicity – from 1990 to 2000

40.3%

48.0%

14.8% 15.7%

24.7%

31.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1990 2000

White Hispanic/Latino African-American

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Public Use Microdata Samples (based on the 2000 and 1990 decennial census) Source: Patrick J. Kelly, NCHEMS

138

Change in the Percent of 25 to 34 Year Olds with College Degrees by Race/Ethnicity – from 1990 to 2000

39.8%

50.8%

15.5% 14.9%

22.2%26.3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1990 2000

White Hispanic/Latino African-American

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Public Use Microdata Samples (based on the 2000 and 1990 decennial census) Source: Patrick J. Kelly, NCHEMS

The Largest Gap of Any State in the U.S.


139

Projected High School Graduates by Race/Ethnicityfrom 2002-03 to 2017-18

Source: Western Interstate Higher Education Commission

1,722 2,311 2,482

6,026

10,316

18,807

31,932 31,60132,605

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

2014

-15

2015

-16

2016

-17

2017

-18

Whites

Hispanics

African-Americans


140

The Need

As many as 40% of high school graduates say that there are gaps between the education they received in high school and the overall skills, abilities, and work habits expected of them today in college and the work force.

Rising to the Challenge: Are High School Graduates Prepared for College and Work?

A Study of Recent High School Graduates, College Instructors, and Employees.

Peter Hart, Achieve 2005


141

Projected Percent Change in Occupations Requiring Some Postsecondary Training from 2002 to 2012 (Some College/Associates, and Bachelor's and Higher)

Source: ACINet, Career InfoNet

46.3

%36

.0%

31.3

%28

.5%

27.2

%27

.1%

26.4

%25

.0%

24.6

%23

.7%

23.7

%23

.7%

23.4

%23

.4%

23.2

%22

.7%

22.0

%21

.7%

21.4

%20

.3%

20.2

%20

.2%

19.9

%19

.6%

19.3

%19

.0%

18.6

%18

.4%

18.4

%18

.4%

18.4

%17

.7%

17.6

%17

.6%

17.5

%16

.7%

16.6

%16

.1%

16.0

%15

.6%

15.4

%15

.0%

14.7

%14

.5%

13.9

%13

.3%

13.2

%12

.7%

12.3

%11

.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Nev

ada

Uta

hC

olor

ado

Idah

oV

irgin

iaA

rizon

aFl

orid

aG

eorg

iaN

ew H

amps

hire

New

Mex

ico

Nor

th C

arol

ina

Texa

sC

alifo

rnia

Mar

ylan

dK

entu

cky

Mon

tana

Mis

sissi

ppi

Ark

ansa

sU

nite

d St

ates

Tenn

esse

eH

awai

iM

inne

sota

Was

hing

ton

Wis

cons

inSo

uth

Dak

ota

Ver

mon

tO

klah

oma

Rho

de Is

land

Del

awar

eA

laba

ma

New

Jers

eyM

isso

uri

Wyo

min

gIo

wa

Sout

h C

arol

ina

Mai

neIn

dian

aO

hio

Ore

gon

Neb

rask

aLo

uisi

ana

Mic

higa

nIll

inoi

sA

lask

aN

ew Y

ork

Con

nect

icut

Nor

th D

akot

aPe

nnsy

lvan

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ansa

sW

est V

irgin

ia


142

Problems in Some Key Fields – Mainly Programs that areAmong the Most Expensive to Operate

4,300

860

1,920

480

2,150

1,106

523

1,334

688

1,461

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

Computer ScienceBachelor’s

Computer ScienceAssociates

Engineering Bachelor's

Engineering Tech.Associates

Nursing Associate andBachelor's

Degrees ProducedDegrees Needed

Source: NCES, IPEDS Completions Survey, Colorado State Demography Office Source: Patrick J. Kelly, NCHEMS


143

Real Headlines

College Enrollments Seesaw2-year, rural schools risk funding dip; research

schools fare better

The state’s 13 two-year community colleges have a total of 17,962 students this fall, down from 19,480 in 2003.

The Denver Post,12/16/2006

144

Real HeadlinesCollege push tugs at

vocation classesIn Colorado, many districts are boosting the number

of math and science courses that high school students need to graduate. “With the increase in

academic requirements for students, the opportunity for them to have the time to take career and

technical education options is shrinking,” said Carol O’Brien, director of the Arapahoe/Douglas Career & Technical Center at Arapahoe Community

College.

The Denver Post, 03/19/2007


145

Real Headlines

At 2-year colleges, students eager but unreadyAs the new school year begins, the nation’s 1,200 community colleges are being deluged with hundreds of thousands of students

unprepared for college-level work.

The New York Times, 09/02/06

146

Real HeadlinesCommunity colleges

want youAs they begin to hit retirement years, baby boomers are expected to flood community colleges for the credentials and training they will need to reposition themselves for

second careers.



147

Real HeadlinesA new tack to help high-schoolers at risk: College

At no cost, students earn diplomas along with 2-year Associate’s degrees.

Washington Post, 11/07/06

148

Real Headlines

As older students return to classrooms an industry

developsThe baby boomers are turning 60 with the

realization that they have skills, capabilities, energy, and 25 years of good health in front of

them and they’re wondering what they want to do.



149

Real Headlines

Community colleges aim for more respect

The institutions, which serve more than half of US undergrads, are working to improve access and

uphold academic standards.

CS Monitor, 01/17/07

150

Real Headlines

Metro State enters new turfMetropolitan State College of Denver is bringing

bachelor’s degrees to community college, targeting two campuses with large numbers of

African-American and Latino students.

The Denver Post, 12/04/06


151

Connecting the dots

Silently reflect:• What will education be like in 2020?• What will community colleges be like?

Table discussion:• What would have to happen for nothing

to happen?

152


153

154


155

Focal Issue for Planning

What will be the demand for community college

services in 2020?

156

For more information

Laura LefkowitsVice President for Policy and Planning Services

Mid-continent Research for Education and Learning4601 DTC Blvd., Suite 500

Denver, CO 80237

[email protected]

303-632-5535

Documents

Colorado Community College System...May 31, 2007 · Bill Gates is Britney Spears. In America today, Britney Spears is Britney Spears,. . . and that is our problem. Friedman, Thomas