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7/24/2019 Colliers India Impact of Etailing on Brick Mortar Retail11092015
1/18
Impact ofe-tailing onbrick and
mortar retailin IndiaA Whitepaper by Colliers International
and Frost & Sullivan
7/24/2019 Colliers India Impact of Etailing on Brick Mortar Retail11092015
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Impact of e-tailing on brick and mortar retail in India 2
Table of contents
Introduction 3
Real estate for organised retail-trends and developments
4
6Indian e-commerce industry: estimated to growto USD 56 billion by 2023
7Emergence of e-tail
7Growth drivers & challenges for e-tail in India
8E-tail favourite investment avenue for PrivateEquity investors
10Impact of e-tail on the retail sector
11Response of brick and mortar retailers toonline retail
13International scenario - Colliers view
14Key emerging and future trends
16Conclusion
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A whitepaper by Colliers International and Frost & Sullivan 3
Rapid proliferation of high-speed Internet and Internet-enabled smart devices has
contributed to the expansion of online retail in India at more than 40 percent growth
in FY 2013-14. In contrast, organised retail grew just 10-12 percent in the same
period, while brick and mortar retail, as a whole, grew 6-7 percent. Capital value
and retail rentals remained flat in Indias top seven cities in FY 13-14. Overall
absorption declined and only 1.6 million sq ft of retail space was absorbed in Indiain 2014, down from 5.1 million sq ft in 2013. The entry of a number of high profile
participants into the online retail field recently, along with an influx of private equity
funds and investment from foreign venture capitalists, has resulted in a huge boost
in funding that translated to tremendous sales growth in e-tail. Mall owners are
currently, looking for a defense strategy to ensure the viability of their retail assets.
However, as they say there is always an opportunity with a threat, it is observed
that retailers are increasingly integrating both offline and online presence through
different combinations of product presentation, payment, and delivery modules for
their stores and digital platforms.
This whitepaper aims to find out the recent trends in Brick and Mortar retail and
online retail in India and aims to provide an insight into the future, along with a
focus on the impact it had on real estate requirements.
Introduction
Online retail in India is expected to touch USD
22 billion by 2018. Mobile internet users in Indiais expected to cross 300 MN by 2017 from 159
million users at present, further aiding e-tail
penetration.
Source: Colliers International India Research, IBEF, Frost & Sullivan
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Unorganised Retail
Organised Retail
Online Retail
Consumer durables
Home decor and furnishing
Jewellery and watches
Beauty care
Footwear
Books, music and gifts
Foods and beverage
Clothing and Textile
92%
33%
20%
18%
10%
8% 6%
7.5%
0.50% 3%
2%
Segment-wise break-up of the indian retail industry
Exhibit 1: Indian retail industry - share of organised retail
Break-up of organised retail
Real estate for organised retail -trends and developments
Impact of e-tailing on brick and mortar retail in India 4
Although the retail sector in India is still dominated by the unorganised sector; the organised retail
sector is growing steadily, though it has less than 10 percent share of the total sector. The countrys
organised retail is still concentrated in cities, especially metros, mini metros, and top cities.
Source: Colliers International India Research, IBEF, Frost & Sullivan
The total existing stock in terms of Gross Leasable Area (GLA) in the 5 major cities currently stands
at approximately 70 million sq ft. About 21 million sq ft is currently under construction, which is
expected to become operational in the next 3 years.
Indias retail industry is flourishing and accounts for 22 percent of the countrys GDP. In 2014, the
market was worth USD 500 billion and is expanding at a CAGR of 15-20 percent. The Indian retail
industry is considered the seventh largest retail market in the world. The penetration level of modern
retail which is 8-10 percent currently is expected to increase six-fold from the current USD 27 billion
to USD 220 billion in 2020.
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A whitepaper by Colliers International and Frost & Sullivan 5
Source: Colliers International India Research
Brick & mortar space 2014 (million sq ft)
15% YoY of average growth in brick & mortar space
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Bengaluru Chennai Hyderabad Kolkata Mumbai NCR Pune
Brick & mortar space 202OE (million sq ft)
13.0
6.5
5.05.9
7.2
15.0
18.8
22.0
28.4
6.5
8.2
6.5
8.2
17.2
Exhibit 2: Demand-Supply situation of Indian retail space requirements (completions / absorption in million sq ft)
In 2014 very minimal new supply has come in to the market and developers have not shown miniscule
interest in launching new retail projects. Some of the major changes that the industry started
witnessing, is slower expansion of big pure players, with focus on profitability (reference Exhibit 3).
Source: Colliers International India Research, Frost & Sullivan
Slower pace of expansion
by big, pure play retailers.
Slowdown in consumption
Focus more on profitability,
less on expansion
Uncertainty over FDI in
multi-brand retail resulted
in sectors slowdown in 2014
Average space addtion in
2014-15: 10-11 %
(down from 13 % in 2013-14)
Retailers to expand space at
a lower rate in 2014-2015
compared to 2013-14
Concerns on rentals and efficiency.
More and more offline retailers
are going online
Exhibit 3: Changes seen in the Indian retail industry
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Impact of e-tailing on brick and mortar retail in India 6
Rental appreciation in prime
shopping markets of major cities like
New Delhi and Mumbai
Historically, low demand supply in
India in 2015
Global brands demanding prime
locations to launch operations;
quality spaces low in metro cities
Out of 71.6 million sq ft of retail space
available in the country, 12.6 million sq ft
remained vacant in 2014
In Delhi and Mumbai, availability of
quality retail space is expected to
remain tight in core areas
Annual absorption decreased to 1.6
million sq ft in 2014 compared to 5.1
million sq ft in 2013
Exhibit 4: Mixed outlook for malls in India
So far we have not seen any major impact on rentals and capital value of retail malls. Goingforward we see a mixed outlook for malls in India, with global brands focusing on prime shoppingmarkets.
The Indian e-commerce industry grew at a CAGR of 34 percent from 2009 until 2014touching US $16.4 billion.
e-tailing is the fastest growing segment in Indian e-commerce at a CAGR of 56 percentover the same period (2009-2014).
Foreign venture capitalists and private equity firms invested US $3.9 billion, led by Tiger
Global, Sequoia, DST Global, Soft Bank, and Sofina.
Global e-tailer Amazon has announced that it will invest US $2 billion in expanding itsIndian operations.
Funds go mainly into customer acquisition, for back-end support, and service delivery.CAGR of 10 percent in digital payments from 2010 till 2014 helped e-tail. COD still accountsfor half of e-tail payments.
Major Indian e-tailers in customer acquisition mode - e-tailers persist with discountsfor the fear of losing customers to rivals. It is not sustainable in the long run.
Indian e-commerce industry: estimatedto grow to USD 56 billion by 2023
Source: PWC
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A whitepaper by Colliers International and Frost & Sullivan 7
Emergence ofe-tail
In India the e-tail revolution started officially around two to three years back. Ebay and Amazon werethe first ones to foray in to the market, with companies like Flipkart, Myntra and Snapdeal, etc. joiningthe online bandwagon recently. With their unique business models and perseverance, e-tailinggradually started taking off. The game changer that triggered the growth spurt was Cash on Delivery(COD) model, which facilitated a safe and convenient shopping experience for consumers. As percomScore data, Amazon India has received 23.6 million unique visitors, while the number was 23.5million for Flipkart and 17.9 million for Snapdeal in May 2015.
Competition from e-tailers has been the major reason behind the slowdown of sales for majority of
the bigger mall retailers. The e-tail business in India is expected to grow in the backdrop of fastgrowing internet penetration and developing infrastructure like payment and delivery systems.
Apparels and accessories
Healthcare
Beauty and personal productsHome decor and furnishing
Baby products
Books
Electronics
Exhibit 5: E-tail revenue break-up (in %), 2014, India
34%
30%
15%
10%
6% 3%
2%
Source: Internet and Mobile Association of India (IAMAI), Colliers International India Research, Frost & Sullivan
Growth drivers & challengesfor e-tail in IndiaThe primary factors driving e-tail in India are increased internet penetration, convenience ofshopping, and discounts offered by these e-tail websites. Another major factor driving demand is thetransparency of price as consumers feel confident that they are getting the best value possible.There are websites, for example, buyhutke.com that do research for the customer and compareprices on all major e-tail sites. In addition, other customer reviews help in finalizing the product.
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Impact of e-tailing on brick and mortar retail in India 8
Exhibit 6: Drivers and challenges to e-tail penetration
Low internetpenetration
Cost of packagingand distribution
Poor logistics andinfrastructure
Discounts
Convenience
Technology
Source: eMarketer, Colliers International India Research, Frost & Sullivan
GROWTH DRIVERS CHALLENGES
However, it is a debatable subject whether shopping online is derived more by convenience or bydiscounts offered. It is very early to say but it appears that discounts offered by e-etail companies isthe primary driver of this demand. Reportedly, all the major players, whether it is Flipkart orSnapdeal are bleeding cash. Other challenges are low internet penetration, less credit card users,poor logistics and transport infrastructure, COD especially last mile, etc. However, the scope ofinternet growth will have a positive impact on retailers volumes and market share, but the cost ofpackaging and distribution can erode profit margins. Retailers are under pressure to find the optimale-distribution model.
E-tail has become the favourite investment destination for Private Equity (PE) investors, withcompanies such as like Flipkart, Amazon, and Snapdeal announcing some of the major investmentsin the last year. Tiger Global, Sequoia, DST Global, Soft Bank and Sofina were the key Venture
Capitalists (VC)/PE investors. Research indicates that the sector has secured over USD 4.4 billioninvestment from VC/PE and internal funding. Refer to exhibit 7 for more details on some of therecent investments.
E-tail favourite investment avenuefor Private Equity investors
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Flipkart.com 3,151Accel India, Tiger Global, Naspers / ICONIQ Capital, DragoneerInvestment Group, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, Sofinaand Vulcan Capital, DST Global, Steadview Capital, Baillie Gifford,Greenoaks Capital, T. Rowe Price Associates, Qatar InvestmentAuthority
Company Key investors Amount(million USD)
1,468Alibaba, Foxconn, Softbank, Nexus Venture Partners, Indo-USVenture Partners, Bessemer Venture Partners, Ebay, IntelCapital,Kalaari Capital, Saama Capital, Temasek Holdings,Blackrock, Myriad, Premji Invest, Tyborne
Snapdeal.com
2009
Total FundingReceived Since
2011
Exhibit 7: Recent Private Equity investments in e-tailing companies
100British development finance institution CDC, and undisclosedinvestors
Jabong.com 2012
89Accel Partners, Mumbai Angels, NEA-IndoUS Ventures,IDG Ventures, Tiger Global, Premji Invest
Myntra.com(Acquired by
Flipkart in 2014)
2007
60Helion Venture Partners, Zodius Capital, Ascent Capital, andBessemer Venture Partners
BigBasket.com 2011
50Kalaari Capital, SAIF Partners, Steadview Capital, Ratan Tata,Tata Sons, Sequoia Capital and TR Capital
Urbanladder.com 2012
50Tiger Global Management, Lightspeed Venture Partners andMatrix Partners India
Limeroad.com 2012
46.5Zomato, Sequoia Capital, Tiger GlobalGrofers.com 2013
36New Enterprise Associates (NEA), Valiant Capital, IDG VenturesIndia, Ventex Venture Holdings and SAIF Partners
Firstcry.com 2010
31Accel Partners, IVY Capital and Dragoneer, with participationfrom Kalaari Capital and Saama Capital, Ratan Tata, Portea Medical
Bluestone.com 2011
28Norwest Venture Partners, Bertelsmann India Investments (BII)Pepperfry.com 2012
19.2Zodius Technology Fund, Khazanah Nasional Bhd, Unilazer Ventures,IDG Ventures India, Kalaari Capital
Zivame.com 2011
10Sequoia Capital and SAIF PartnersPepperTap.com 2014
2.8IAN, Harvard Business Angels (India chapter)PrettySecrets.com 2012
1.6Info Edge (India) LtdHappilyunmarried.com 2003
Source: Secondary sources like e-newspapers, e-magazines etc.
Note: Data compiled by Colliers International India Research
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Impact of e-tailing on brick and mortar retail in India 10
Impact of e-tail on theretail sector
The primary impact of e-tail on the physical retail format is in 3 areas:
1. Low growthAs physical retail sales stagnate and growth is lower than previous years, retail chains are forced toopen fewer stores. Even footfall during festive season has been reduced which is going in favour ofonline retail. As per secondary sources the retail revenue growth in 2014-15 has come down to 10to 11 percent from 13 percent in 2013-14.
2. Diminishing margins
Customers started demanding to match online prices for goods, particularly electronics are forcingretailers to sell at lower prices. Certain brands sell exclusively on the Internet via tie-ups with e-tailpartners, thereby denying offline retailers business.
3. Reduced sales density
Showrooming as a trend is on the rise resulting in footfalls not essentially translating into sales.For example : Online retail is rapidly penetrating the electronics segment, especially the cellphonemarket. As a result, South Indias largest brick and mortar cellphone retailer, UniverCell is nowlooking to shut the 380-store chain.
SHOPPERS STOP WESTSIDE FUTURE RETAIL
Space additions: Consolidated FootprintGrowth:
Closed more stores than it
opened in 2013
Shut 16 Food Bazaar Stores in 2013it opened in 2013
Reduced Operational Area
by 0.15 Million Sq. Ft.
2012-13 : 18.4%
2011-12 : 48.5%
2010-11 : 41.1%
2012-13 : 2.5%
2011-12 : 7.5%
Exhibit 8: E-tail impact-reaction of retailers and realty suppliers
Adoption of strategies to integratestores with their websites andtrying to make e-tailing a crucialmedium of sales.For example: Shoppers Stop.
Demand for a regulatory authorityfor e-tailing sites in India withrespect to market practicesadopted.
Indian landlords yet to be affectedsignificantly, unlike those inmature markets such as the USA.Landlords to persist without hikingrents owing to lesser margins ofbrick and mortar shops.
In future, malls to focus onportfolios less affected by onlinerevolution: Gaming zones,
multiplexes, hotel, food andentertainment, etc.
R ES PO NS E BY R ETA IL ER S R ES PO NS E BY L AN DLO RD S
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Source: Colliers International India Research, Frost & Sullivan
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Response of brick and mortarretailers to online retail
Brick and mortar retailers are increasingly wary of the threats posed by the attractiveness of onlineretail. In mature markets, such as the USA, retailers such as Walmart in several cases, match theprices offered by their online rivals. It is observed that retailers are increasingly integrating bothoffline and online presence through different combinations of product presentation, payment, anddelivery across stores and the digital platform.
1. Changes in the physical retail formats
Exhibit 9: Impact of e-tail growth on newer demands in real estate
E-fullfilment centers: Merchandise isstocked at large scale and picked up atitem levels. (Addition of 7.5-15 million sqft in the next three to four years)
Parcel hubs and sortation centers (USD500-1000 million to be spent on logisticsfunction in the next three to four years)
Parcel delivery centers: Last mile delivery tothe customer
IT operation centers and administrative centers
Source: Colliers International India Research, Frost & Sullivan
Expected spending by e-tailersin India between 2017-2020
USD 450-900 million(2-6 percent of revenue)
USD 500-1,000 millionPhysical retailers to cut down onreal estate investments and storeexpansion plans
Warehousing and sortation centers:
Logistics Functions
Brick and mortar shops are trying to differentiate themselves by providing a unique brandexperience to the buyers. Multisensory customer experiences, better customer reception, and betterrelationship management with customers are areas that can be facilitated better through brick andmortar channels. Stores with a physical presence play a huge role in brand building and will alwaysremain relevant. Certain national retail chains have recognized the importance of multiple deliverymodels and have strategised accordingly.
2. Multisensory customer experience
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Impact of e-tailing on brick and mortar retail in India 12
Exhibit 10: Multisensory customer experience, redefining consumer experience
Bettercusto
merexperience
Betterrelationshipmanagement
Integratingt
echnologyintostore
Turning thestore intoa fulfillmentcenter
In-storeexperienceunrivalled bye-tailcompetitors
Betterattentionto customers
Productexperiencezones
Immediate andaccurate feedback fromcustomers
Bettercustomer
engagement
Storesconnected toa centralguidancesystem,providing
promotion andsupport
Source: Frost & Sullivan, Colliers International India Research
From a mall owners perspective, the mall ownership model has a bearing in successful adoption ofa new strategy. In the Indian market, most of the malls are strata sold to the investors. Multipleownerships are resulting in improper mall management and low occupancy. International brandsgenerally stay away from such malls. It is observed that it is difficult to change formats and tenantsin a strata sold model than in a developer owned mall. It is evident in India that malls owned bydevelopers like DLF, Unitech, Phoenix, etc. are faring better than strata sold malls because of bettermall management and control over tenant quality.
Source: Colliers International India Research, Frost & Sullivan
STRATA
OWNED
MODEL
DEVELOPER
OWNED
MODEL
Multiple owners, low occupancy
No proper mall management, international brandsstay away from such malls
Proper mall management-freedom to chose tenant
Proper floor planning, attracts more internationalbrands
No theme based or any special shoppingexperience
Small scale developers built such malls
Exhibit 11: Developer owned overtaking the strata owned malls model
Established developers own such malls.Example: malls by DLF, Unitech, etc.
Malls
ownership
models
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International scenarioColliers view
In China, landlords are considering more diversified retail trades that are associated withexperience such as food and beverages (F&B) and entertainment, in a bid to increase footfalls. Inaddition, more promotional activities such as art galleries and exhibitions are more acts of this kind.Some landlords are more willing to enter O2O, establishing webs for their properties, in the hope ofundertaking more online promotions on behalf of tenants and owners themselves. These kind ofowners include Wanda, COFCO and Yintai all quite well known in China.
Hong KongMall operators in Hong Kong continue to utilize their designated home pages and internet platformsas an effective means to entice their customers especially the young generation to physical malls.We see a lot of collaboration between the mall operators and retailers in achieving this. For example,by teaming up with retailers, mall operators can issue e-coupons which are only available online.However, it can only be redeemed in designated shops within shopping malls. Events and jointpromotional activities with retailers have been lined up throughout the year and all event information
is available online. Pop star shows can draw crowds too. Special invitations can be obtained onlinebut with limited seats available, tickets will be distributed by clicking onto certain internet links on thebasis of first click first serve. Supermarkets can be slightly scaled back and more spaces inshopping malls can then be allocated to tenants engaged in F&B and restaurants since these cannotbe replaced by any e-retailing. All the promotions and latest menu etc. will be made available onlineto facilitate visitors who want to dine out in shopping malls.
Shopping center owners in Australia have embraced online shopping and the use of technology tobetter connect the digital shopper with physical shopping malls. The focus is very much on themulti-channel experience. Shopping centers are becoming digital hubs, which connect the product,the retailer and the building. Westfield for example, is targeting online shoppers with its SearchableMall, a website which helps shoppers find what they want in their local Westfield shopping centeror allows customers to purchase goods online. Facilitating click-and-collect and online order returnswithin shopping centers is also a priority, and is being catered for in new center design and tenancy
fit outs.
Australia
China
Source: Colliers International Research
- Colliers International China Research
- Colliers International Hong Kong Research
- Colliers International Australia Research
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Impact of e-tailing on brick and mortar retail in India 14
Key emerging andfuture trends
1. Logistics: The new retail for real estate
The expanding e-tail industry, and a key role in it for third-party delivery firms, has triggered theUSD 50 billion Indian logistics sector to about 80 percent more growth this year, making it the fifthbest performing industry in India. The rapid emergence of e-tail has had an impact on industrialreal estate. Logistics and distribution properties are now being established at a fast pace acrossthe country in order to ensure pan India coverage. There has been a big shift in spending forfacilities from showrooms to logistics facilities, as demand for logistics and storage facilities are onthe rise. E-tail logistics models are different from traditional storebased logistics models, and willrequire fresh investments for the set up.
Tie-ups by leading pure play brick and mortar retailers with e-tail giants in a market placearrangement will be an emerging trend in retail. This will be the way forward for those retailerswho want to benefit from the huge e-tailing growth pie, while maintaining their brick and mortaroperational characteristics. This way, the retailers can offload many of the operational risksassociated with online business to the pure play e-tail partner, while reducing IT investment costs.Jewelers in India, who have always played purely in the brick and mortar format, are now tying upwith e-tail giants like Flipkart, ebay, and Amazon to generate more orders.
Multi-channel is making channel irrelevant. Retailers are increasingly recognising that there is noneed for maintaining channel exclusivity. Rather, having a presence across channels will help themconnect better with the customers. Brick and mortar retailers are expected to continue theirsignificance, while being supported by their own digital/online presence. The notion of channels willgradually erode and they will be integrated relentlessly.
2. Tie-ups between pure play e-tailers and retailers
3. Multi channel
4. Click and collect
In mature markets, click and collect is the fastest growing multi-channel retail format as it provides
a simple solution to the last mile problem. It works well for all the players (customers, retailers, andlandlords). For example, for the customer it offers the convenience of being able to collect goods ata time that suits them. For the retailer, it means passing on some of the cost of delivery to theshoppers, as well as the opportunity to up-sell when that customer is in store. For landlords, clickand collect is a great footfall generator and can often mean the sale is attributed to that store, eventhough it is transacted online. However, click and collect also has logistical challenges for pure playretailers as they do not have a store network from which to offer collections. To mitigate thisproblem, many retailers have made alliances with small convenience retailers or post offices to offercollection points, or have set up collection lockers in shopping centers, on industrial estates or at
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5. Enhanced delivery model
railway stations. For example, Amazon collection points are now a common feature in UK shoppingcenters, while in Germany, it is reported that 90 percent of the population live within 10 minutes offree lockers operated by Deutsche Post DHL.
In the US, click and collect is however not very popular because of the big difference in geography.The US is much larger and more sparsely populated than the UK, making distribution a challenge.Thus, super markets offer very short delivery times to compete with online shopping. But incompetition, e-commerce sites like Amazon offer same day delivery service in around 10 cities andEbay offers same day delivery service in San Francisco and New York in alliance with a number ofbig retailers.
Exhibit 12: Learnings from international experience
Click and collect model Order online and pick up in store (commonly known as click a collect)
Enhanced delivery model Visit the store and get things delivered at home
Multi channel
Visit the store and order onlne via a kiosk or i-pad Visit the store and shop on the retailers website via mobile phones
Visit the store and shop on another retailers website for a better price (also known as showrooming)
Visit the store, compare prices via a barcode scanner and nd theproduct at another physical store at a lower price
Source: Colliers International India Research, Frost & Sullivan
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Impact of e-tailing on brick and mortar retail in India 16
ConclusionOffline and online retail are likely to coexist in India in the future as well, and bothwill reinvent themselves to make shopping a more pleasurable experience.Omni-channel retail strategies will emerge more significant as retailers recognizethat customers want to shop at their will, in their way, and whenever they wantto. However, brick and mortar will remain the cornerstone for retail.
Physical retail can be powerfully supplemented by digital retail and such will be
the case in India in the near future. However, there are issues like poor supplychain infrastructure in the country that both retailers and e-tailers will have toovercome. Absence of clear e-commerce laws and lack of customer loyalty willbe challenges that the e-tailers are likely to face moving forward.
Source list:
IBEF (India Brand Equity Foundation)
PWC
IAMAI (Internet and Mobile Association of India)
VCCircle
trak .in
Wikipedia
Business Standard
Economic Times
Mint
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Colliers International Group Inc.
Colliers International Group Inc. (NASDAQ: CIGI; TSX: CIG) is a global leader in commercial realestate services with more than 16,300 professionals operating from 502 offices in 67 countries. Withan enterprising culture and significant insider ownership, Colliers professionals provide a full rangeof services to real estate occupiers, owners and investors worldwide. Services include brokerage,
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visionary innovation that addresses the global challenges and related growth opportunities that willmake orbreak todays market participants. For more than 50 years, we have been developinggrowth strategies for the Global 1000, emerging businesses, the public sector and the investmentcommunity. Is your organization prepared for the next profound wave of industry convergence,disruptive technologies, increasingcompetitive intensity, Mega Trends, breakthrough best practices,changing customer dynamics and emerging economies?
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Copyright 2015 Colliers International.The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemedreliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. Noresponsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors priorto acting on any of the material contained in this report.
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7/24/2019 Colliers India Impact of Etailing on Brick Mortar Retail11092015
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Authors:
Media Contact:
Surabhi Arora
Sachin SharmaManager
Research | Colliers International [email protected]
Sukanya DasguptaAssistant General ManagerMarketing & Communications | Colliers International India
[email protected]+91 98118 67682
Associate DirectorResearch | Colliers International [email protected]
Deepa DoraiswamyAssociate DirectorInnovation & Knowledge Center | MENASA | Frost & [email protected]